Communicate Research’s monthly poll for the Independent shows Labour at their lowest level for decades – the last polls I can find with Labour this low are from September 1983. The headline voting intention figures, with changes from last month are CON 36%(+1), LAB 27%(-4), LDEM 22%(+2). The poll was conducted between April 20th and April 22nd.

Last month Communicate started weighted their polls by past vote, so in theory at least (I haven’t yet seen the details of how they are weighting their polls) they should no longer be as volatile as they have been in the past. ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian and YouGov’s poll for the Telegraph are also both due in the near future. If they show a simialr drop in support for Labour then next month’s elections could be very unpleasant for the government.


22 Responses to “Communicate show Labour down to 27%”

  1. Labour have turned into limbo dancers – just how low can they go?

    If their poll ratings go even further south following an election drubbing in May, is it possible to do worse than Foot did? Do you have the historic figures that go that far back? What’s the lowest Labour achieved under Foot, what was typical under him?

  2. As a labour activist out cmapaigning and talking to people, it seems better on the streets than last April (post cabinet melt down) and certainly no worse, it is hard to square these poll results with canvass returns and the ‘look you in the eye’ factor. It will be interesting to see the actual local election, wales and scotland results

  3. I find this poll a little hard to believe really – much as I would like to!

  4. Paul Smith. It all depends where the doors on which you are knocking are, doesn’t it? If you look at the Populus detailed results over the last twelve months you do find very intestesting regional variations.

  5. As Tory, I can tell you from hard experience, it does not work like that…

  6. Interesting.

    But why does Communicate Research show both the major parties 2-3% lower than other pollsters?

    I would have thought the national situation was still something like Lab 30/31%, Tory 38/39% ?

    Unless of course the immenient local elections are distorting the picture and the Lib Dems and Others *will* exceed expectations.

    Will the Tories hit 40% of the national vote again? Will Labour really lose 900, maybe 1000, seats??

    Difficult to call really.

  7. Philip – Going back that far polls aren’t really comparable due to methodological differences. For example, back then MORI polls wouldn’t have been prompted by party name and weren’t filtered by turnout. Just for fun though, MORI have polls on their website going back to 1979. 27% is the lowest Labour ever reached in them – twice in 1983 and once in 1981.

    In Gallup’s polls, Labour’s nadir was the Summer after the 1983 election when they hit 24% and 25%, and December 1981 when they managed only 23%. Prior to that they had hit 28% in 1968, but had never sunk as low as 27%.

    Historical NOP and Harris polls aren’t available on the internet, so no idea what the historical lows are there.

  8. Rob B – since we don’t know exactly how and to what levels Communicate are weighting by past vote, and we don’t yet have a track record using their new methodology, it’s impossible to say yet how they compare to other pollsters.

  9. I wonder what impact a series of bad UK polls for labour will have on the Scottish election. I doubt it will gain them a sympathy vote.

    A friend was canvassed yesterday by a sitting Labour councillor who didn’t even ask for his vote… Although he’s in the SNP he didn’t give him a hard time as he said the guy just looked sad as if he was going through the motions.

    Peter.

  10. I just had to post this,

    Train crash TV.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toQJKa1NP7g

    Peter.

  11. Peter, I have looked at the video. I liked Mr McConnell – how well his physical fitness contrasted with Mr Ponsonby’s on-the-verge-of-a-seizure obesity. Let’s hope the Scots have the same view.

  12. It must be disappointing for the Tories to see a pathetic Labour share figure of 27% accompanied by only 36% for them.

    Once again, there’s no sign of them hitting 40%.

  13. Apart from all those ICM polls

  14. The “magic” 40% is elusive partly because of SNP and Plaid and partly because of the rise of smaller parties -Green 3%, BNP 2% and UKIP 1%. In terms of the English council elections, of course, SNP and Plaid do not count, and depending where you are the others count a lot or not at all. So, 36% in terms of May 3rd may be as good for the Tories as 40% at the GE. Then again, it may not

  15. Incidentally, does anyone know of a good source on the local election results in 1977 and 1968 (Labour´s two record lows iirc).

  16. I’m not surprised that Labour is loosing votes; taking us into an illegal war. I live in Wales and we have a Labour government here too, and you know what…we are still the poorest nation in the UK and one of the poorest nations in Western Europe, how does that calculate if the UK is one of the richest in the whole of Europe? Thanks to an influx of english people into Wales, (sarcasm), it seems that the Tories are getting stronger. We have never been a Tory country and I would like it to stay that way. People in Wales need to vote for Plaid so that we can get a Parliament like Scotlands and then one day get independence; like Scotland wants. Cymru am byth!!!

  17. ICM Poll figures are out

    Con 37 -4
    Lab 30 -1
    Lib 21 +3
    Oth 12 +2

  18. Amazingly consistent polls.

  19. Interesting the Conservative opinion poll rating is high enough to potentially win a GE except when a real election comes along. That happened to labour in the late 80’s and early 90’s, too.

  20. Actually Andy, the Conservatives hit 40% in last years local elections despite most polls still showing them below that figure – although in the lead.
    Of course, they need to do better, and there are candidates all round the country working hard at the moment.
    We will need to see more polls aswell.
    You claim to be sympathetic to the Tories although floating but 90% of the time you make snearing negative comments rubbishing the Tories, and talking up the Lib Dems everywhere.

  21. Joe 1:23

    He does this on Conservativehome too. Usually by slagging-off talented and high-flying prospective Conservative candidates in an attempt to prevent them being selected in Con/Lib-dem marginals.

    It’s highly unethical and it’s pretty obvious which party he really supports.

  22. Enough please. People making partisan comments is bad enough. People then accusing each other of being partisan makes it worse.