Following on from the ORB and ICM polls at the start of the week, there are two more EU polls today that both have small movements towards Leave. YouGov in the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 41%(+1), LEAVE 42%(+3), DK/WNV 17%(-4), while Survation for IG have topline figures of REMAIN 45%(-1), LEAVE 38%(+3), DK 17%(-2). I’m dubious about whether this is an Obama effect, but it does put to bed the idea that the series of polls last week showing a movement towards Remain was the start of some sort of breakthrough.

An interesting thing about the YouGov poll – while their headline EU voting intention figures have changed very little over the last few months, there has been movement in Remain’s favour on the economic argument. Back in February people thought Britain would be worse off outside the EU by only a two point margin, it’s now thirteen points (35% worse off, 22% better off). YouGov’s regular EU questions have also shown increasing belief that leaving the EU would be bad for jobs, and bad for people’s personal finances. Yet this hasn’t translated into any movement in the headline figures.

This may be because it’s being balanced out by factors favouring Leave, like immigration or the NHS, or it may be that the economic argument hasn’t started to bite yet. I’m reminded of the experience of Scotland, where people swung towards YES during the campaign despite telling pollsters they thought that an independent Scotland would be worse off economically… but ended up swinging in favour of risk aversion and what they thought was their best economic interest in the final fortnight. Anyway, time will tell.

Finally YouGov have voting intention figures of CON 30%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 20%. That twenty percent for UKIP is a record high from YouGov, though I am a little dubious about it. While it seems perfectly feasible that during a referendum campaign the only significant political party backing one side of the argument may get a boost in support, we haven’t seen such a big boost in support echoed in any other polling. Wait to see if that’s reflected in any other polling before getting too excited.


361 Responses to “YouGov/Times – Remain 41%, Leave 42%”

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  1. @Peter Cairns

    Perhaps “Judaist” as an alternative to “Zionist”, in parallel with “Islamist”. I’m not sure swapping “Israeli State” for “Zionist” helps since it doesn’t distinguish between secular and religious forces on/from that government. A retrograde step surely?

    @Neil A

    Weren’t indeed the “English” in the form of Bernicia first in modern day Scotland at roughly the same time as the “Scottish” in the form of Dal Riada?

  2. Allan Christie

    In amongst your entertainingly partisan stuff, you make a good point about the Tories being “ripe for the picking”.

    The polls mostly show Labour in the low 30s, but the Tory score is all over the place between different pollsters. This raises the question of leakage of Conservative VI to UKIP and whether it is being picked up by all pollsters, or whether some pollsters are showing a false movement. We will know if this is the case on Friday morning.

  3. @Hawthorn,

    I didn’t say that the Muslims conquered the Jews, but that they conquered Jerusalem. The point being that if the objection to a Jewish state in the Middle East is because it is “Muslim land” then it should be recognised that it being a “Muslim land” is just a “fact on the ground” caused by a previous injustice. Palestine was very nearly “not Muslim” twice. Both at Yarmouk and during the Crusades, it could easily have been a Christian country still.

    The Jewish domination of Israel is obviously much more recent, but we’re already at the point where there are millions of Jewish people living in Israel who were either born there or have lived there since they were children. Differential demographics may eventually overturn that domination, but for now it is a “fact on the ground” that Israel exists and is Jewish. Like most “facts on the ground” in world demographics, it is born from a historic injustice, but that injustice is not undoable now (however much Ms Shah and her ilk might like it to be).

  4. Neil A

    I don’t dispute any of that. The way to get out of the cycle is a proper negotiated settlement to provide some sort of sharing. Not optimistic.

  5. Actually, I have to take you up on one thing, some Palestinians are Christian.

  6. NEIL A

    I don’t disagree with your post in any shape or form but was just highlighting that (I think) Czechoslovakia split without a referendum.

  7. Yes, a small minority are. And they, like Muslim Palestinians were opposed to the creation of Israel.

    But the worldwide repercussion of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are not in Jewish-Christian relations, they are in Muslim-Christian relations, and the majority of those seeking the elimination of Israel do so because they want to reclaim that territory for the Muslim world.

  8. HAWTHORN

    You make a good point and I don’t think the polls are picking up movement from the Tories to UKIP.

    I think on Friday morning we will see UKIP making some big gains from the Tories and gains from Labour but the spin docs will be saying “Ah but our losses weren’t as bad as yours” “Oh but we were expected to do badly but held on to more than expected”

    The the storey of the night will be with UKIPin England and Wales I suspect!!

  9. @AC,

    You’re probably right.

    But surely these elections, above all others, should be expected to be UKIP’s high water mark? Local elections that don’t affect who runs the UK government, against an unpopular government, whose opponents are all just as unpopular, in the fevered atmosphere of campaigning for EU exit, which some polls show the UK electorate to be in favour of.

    I think anything other than a bumper UKIP haul would be a great disappointment for them, and that they will be just as engaged in expectation management and spin as anyone else.

  10. “Len McCluskey, the head of the UK’s biggest union, claimed former shadow ministers Liz Kendall and Michael Dugher, Gordon Brown’s former aide Ian Austin and newly elected MP Wes Streeting have made interventions meant to damage Corbyn.”

    Guardian.

    Ferrets in a Sack !

  11. @ Allan Christie; story of the night may be UKIP in England; no council elections here and UKIP’s entry into the Senedd has been factored in. The story in Wales will be about which constituencies change hands and given that no one is polling above the low thirties and four parties are above 15% some unusual results are highly likely, with winning candidates being elected on less than 30% of the vote, However UKIP won’t win a single constituency but the comings and goings between Lab, Cons and PC are very unpredictable

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