With a week to go until the Scottish Parliament elections Ipsos MORI have published their latest Scottish voting intention figures. Topline figures are

Holyrood constituency vote: SNP 51%, LAB 19%, CON 18%, LDEM 6%
Holyrood regional vote: SNP 45%, CON 19%, LAB 17%, GRN 10%, LDEM 7%

The SNP are, obviously, set for another landslide win. The more surprising finding is that the Conservatives are in second place in the regional vote, which would likely leave them with the second largest number of MSPs. YouGov’s online polling has been showing a tight race between Conservative and Labour for second place for a while, but this is the first time MORI’s Scottish phone polling has shown the Scottish Tories catching Labour. Full details are here.

On the second day of the junior doctors strike, I should also update on public support for their action. MORI and YouGov have both released new data over the last two days, and both of them showed a majority of people continued to support the strike action. The MORI poll for the BBC found 57% of people supported the strike, 26% opposed (details here), YouGov for the Times found 53% thought strike action was right, 29% wrong (full details here).


40 Responses to “MORI Scottish polling and latest doctors’ strike polls”

  1. Anthony

    Ipsos-MORI (like other pollsters) showing a frankly silly 6% for “Others” on the constituency vote. There just aren’t enough candidates for other parties for these folk to vote for!

    Any thoughts on how that distortion could be addressed?

    For example – “If your chosen party doesn’t have a candidate in your constituency, who would you vote for” – to be asked of those with a VI for one of the “Others”.

  2. I can remember joking about St. Andrews Crossover between the Tories and Labour in Scotland. Looks like we’re just about there.

    In the constituency section, it has been argued persuasively by people more knowledgeable than me that the Greens are likely overstated and the SNP understated on the list vote.

  3. Bill Patrick

    I’m surprised that the meeja haven’t picked up your “St Andrew’s Crossover” quip. It’s a lot funnier and more accurate than most of what they come up with!

  4. Good evening all from rural Hampshire.
    I did say in the last thread that I don’t like to regurgitate stuff from previous threads but this post does have relevance for this thread.

    JOHN B
    @Allan Christie and Old Nat
    “I disagree with your low expectations of Labour in next year’s Scottsh Local Council elections. I expect the SNP shine to have somewhat dimmed by then – it is the inevitability of politics and public mood – and Dugdale’s Labour will have managed to survive the coming disaster (May 5th) without totally imploding, simply because Labour is expecting a total disaster”
    _____________
    Don’t get me wrong I wasn’t attributing Labour’s demise at next years local elections to SNP success only but I can see them getting the boot from Glasgow and a coalition of some sort stepping in. Across Scotland I think it would be great if smaller party’s played a bigger role in local government.

    If Labour lose Glasgow then it will seal the lid on Scottish Labour for at least a generation. Much like the Tories when they became toxic in Scotland and it was trendy not to vote for them but even they now appear to be on the way up.
    Back to Glasgow.. No other party since 1934 has controlled the city, it’s been in the control of Labour/Labour minority for all that time except for the few occasions the Progressives took control.
    In all that time we have seen one of the finest Victorian cities in

    Europe turned into a (Made by Labour) tower block utopia. Concrete carbuncles housing huge council departmental departments .Brutalist architecture replacing Victorian splendour.
    Concrete landscaping on a scale of biblical proportions, a network of motorways slicing communities in half, gap sites over 40 years old and local corruption.

    When it comes to gentrification in Glasgow you have to laugh at the monstrosity administration running the city. They get the first part right, pulling down the homes of generations but forget the final part, building the new homes but you know at least the city has sporadic mini Amazon’s dotted all around the city where homes used to stand. Maybe the city council are trying to gentrify the local wildlife.

    For Scotland to function properly it needs its largest city to change hands and if that means booting out the current stuff at George Square and replacing it with something else then so be it.

    How one city let itself be in the grip of one party for such a long time in my view is extremely tragic.

  5. “The SNP are, obviously, set for another landslide win. The more surprising finding is that the Conservatives are in second place in the regional vote, which would likely leave them with the second largest number of MSPs”
    _____

    We could actually see a scenario where Labour can be ahead of the Tories on the constituency ballot by up to 5% and also be ahead on the list by 1 or 2% yet the Tories would take more seats simply because the Tories are likely y to win 3 FPTP seats which in itself would offset Labour’s slight increase in the list.

    The seats the Tories would win are spread out so it shouldn’t be to detrimental to the amount of list MSPs they win.

    Spin that yin spin docs.

  6. There are a bunch of parties who are essentially London based. (Despite their ‘Scottish’ wings). No great surprise that the Scottish have finally sussed that out and now vote SNP.

    The big surprise is “How did it take so long to suss it out”.

    And how comes the Welsh have yet to spot the same thing?

  7. David in France

    There are a bunch of parties who are essentially London based. (Despite their ‘Scottish’ wings). No great surprise that the Scottish have finally sussed that out and now vote SNP.

    The big surprise is “How did it take so long to suss it out”.

    It’s not that “it took so long” as for many years it was an active choice of Scottish voters to choose GB wide parties.

    As GB institutions that cemented the Union have declined, so has support for the UK Union.

    The real question is why have voters in England, outwith London/SE, still not realised that the London based parties don’t represent them either.

  8. D in F
    “There are a bunch of parties who are essentially London based”

    That’s an interesting point, and probably true nowadays of Tories and Labour (not so sure about Libdems). Yet (my image of) the Tories until recently was that they were the party of the country, as opposed to cities, and that Labour were strongest in industrial cities.

    Now, as you suggest, they both seem to be parties of the metropolitan self-styled ‘elite’. I wonder why this has happened, or is it just an impression created because of recent leaders?

  9. Good that SLab released their manifesto today – a week before the election.

    Interesting idea they have that they will “ensure the Scottish Government routinely pays invoices within 2 weeks” (p17)

    They don’t, however, explain why they want the SG to have 4 extra days to delay payment – current rule is payment within 10 days.

    Competence is a major issue in why parties get votes – or drop to 3rd from 1st place.

  10. Allan Christie,

    “Concrete carbuncles housing huge council departmental departments!”

    Name One?

    Peter.

  11. I’m just about to read the Scottish Lib/Dem manifesto and It’s fair to say the size of their manifesto reflects the size of their likely election success.

    http://i.huffpost.com/gen/1798557/thumbs/o-COVER-900.jpg

  12. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    I think there are quite a few council owned carbuncles around Glasgow. Collegelands is full of them.

  13. “The MORI poll for the BBC found 57% of people supported the strike, 26% opposed (details here), YouGov for the Times found 53% thought strike action was right, 29% wrong (full details here).”

    —————–

    In the Times today tho’ it did say that polling suggests the public might not be so keen on more protracted strike action…

  14. @OldNat
    “The real question is why have voters in England, outwith London/SE, still not realised that the London based parties don’t represent them either.”

    It’s not the parties per se that are the problem. It’s that the voters have changed. In the past, voters were much more homogenous in what they wanted, hence GB split largely between Red and Blue. Now for various reasons the party link has fractured and many people no longer feel properly represented. The best solution is a federal UK with a PR based electoral system. But I won’t allow myself to be the one to start that discussion….again(!)

    I also think the feeling that the GB-wide parties are London-centric is not actually true. If they were, London wouldnt have so mant of the same problens (often worse) as the rest of GB. I guess at least we get a chance to elect a Mayor whose sole objective is to act for London.

  15. Allan Christie

    Your response was even less specific in responding to the question than Kez to Ponsonby on STV tonight.

    Are you practising to be the next SLab leader?

  16. @Pete B

    “Now, as you suggest, they both seem to be parties of the metropolitan self-styled ‘elite’. I wonder why this has happened, or is it just an impression created because of recent leaders?”

    ———–

    Well it may be a mix of things: stuff that influenced them personally, the things those who lobby and fund them push for, and where the marginals/ key votes are, etc. etc…

    (Unless we’re talking Lib Dems or summat who seemed to determine what their voters most wanted, then do the opposite…)

  17. DAVID IN FRANCE:
    “And how comes the Welsh have yet to spot the same thing?”

    That might follow in later years if Mark Reckless gets elected and has the kind of impact I suspect he will have.

    Scotland has shown that an alternative to voting Labour is available without the sky falling in. Whether Wales takes sufficient notice of that is the question.

    Totally unscientific, but on a recent trip to Wales I spoke with a number of people who are cheesed off with Labour and ready to cast their vote around. Ukip has been the chief beneficiary of that in recent years, but I feel that Plaid might be being taken more seriously than in previous years.

  18. RAF

    Ah! The old “it’s not the parties that are problem, but those damned voters” argument!

    OK I do know that wasn’t what you were saying :-) but we probably share the view that the declining parties (all the London based ones come into the category) haven’t woken up to just how irrelevant they are to many people.

    Perhaps we need to nuance the “London” label to discriminate between the poor sods who have to suffer the ludicrous housing costs, ridiculous overcrowding and pollution of living in London from the interests of the City of London – which the “GB” parties actually represent.

  19. “UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls”.

    .. and not partisan twaddle about (a) the history of Glaswegian politics and town planning (b) all the main UK parties being in the pocket of the City of London (c) Scottish correspondence response times (d) the alleged short-sightedness of the Welsh and English electorates compared with our omniscient northern cousins etc etc

  20. Pollsters and commentators tend to misrepresent the AMS system (and doubtless confuse many voters).

    Describing the constituency vote as “first” and List vote as “second” wholly distorts the process.

    It’s the List vote that creates the composition of the Parliament – though the current d’Hondt system can’t adjust for one party having an overwhelming dominance of constituency MSPs.

    The place for tactical voting is the constituency vote (in most cases for/against having an SNP or Tory MSP).

    So the MORI crossbreaks of the List vote by Constituency vote might be better read the other way around.

    Instead of “only 83% of SNP voters choose them on the list” it might be better/equally represented as “more than half of Green voters vote SNP, while roughly the same proportion of SLab voters opt for SNP as for Tories”.

  21. London did not get the government it voted for last year, so it is a bit difficult to argue that the system is London-centric in terms of influencing General Election results.

  22. Not sure why Glasgow council is being mentioned as the elections next week are for Holyrood. The council elections aren’t happening until next year, so Glasgow will still be “led” by Labour for a while yet…

  23. Welsh Borderer

    Oddly, on a thread with a Saltire heading, discussion of Scottish politics seems reasonable.

    There’s no need to be upset just because I have posted more on Welsh polls than you have – though you may have little interest in them anyway. :-)

    How was the Welsh party leader’s debate tonight? Maybe you didn’t watch it, though.

  24. Happy Ed Balls Day, one and all.

  25. It seems that the Scottish Greens are emerging as a genuine competitor to the SNP, perhaps helped by the fact that they are a separate party from the Green Party of England & Wales and hence don’t have the Westminster baggage of the SNP’s other competitors. I guess it was inevitable that the nationalist vote would not remain solely under the lock and key of the SNP forever, and the Greens seem to provide somewhere to go for those who want independence but are perhaps not totally satisfied with the current government.

    The SNP seem to be keeping the Greens to the list vote only for the moment – however, it can’t be long before left-leaning Scots realise that the SNP are so far in front in most constituencies that they don’t really need to vote SNP x2 to keep another party out of their seat. If Scottish politics continues on its current trajectory then perhaps that 10% Green vote share on the list will be replicated in the constituencies by the next Holyrood elections.

  26. Hawthorn

    “London did not get the government it voted for last year”

    True. Hence my suggestion that we distinguish between the interests of those living in London, and those voting for the Lord Mayor of London and providing the Remembrancer who sits behind the Speaker’s Chair to ensure that the important people’s interests are represented.

    However, none of the parties that Londoners were invited to vote for last year were minded to question that privileged status that pays so many wages in that part of the world.

    AFAIK none of them questioned the process by which the Treasury decided that the rest of the UK should contribute to funding the hugely expensive London infrastructures either.

    A proposition that London should follow Singapore’s example, and become a “city-state” would be interesting. How much support do you think it would have, and how much would it cost to erect the armed border posts to keep the marauding hordes from Sussex out? :-)

  27. @Allan Christie
    ‘Sorry Graham I never discuss regurgitated stuff from previous threads. ‘

    Really? How come you have repeated your comments from the last thread on here? Very selective clearly!

  28. Polltroll

    It isn’t the SNP keeping the Greens to the List vote. Following the early rounds of AMS elections, the smaller parties [1] decided that their limited resources were best spent on the List.

    Greens are fighting 3 constituency seats this time, as they begin their move from minor to major party status.

    The SGP isn’t just attractive to those supporting Scottish autonomy because they aren’t a branch of the E&W Greens [2] but because they support Scottish independence.

    [1] The LDs are the exception, because they still think giving lots of lost deposits to Brenda’s private purse is worth it to carry on pretending that they are a major party.

    [2] SGP are keen to emphasise that their agenda is internationalist, while realising that the implementation has to be achieved within individual countries.

  29. GRAHAM
    @Allan Christie
    ‘Sorry Graham I never discuss regurgitated stuff from previous threads. ‘
    ……
    Really? How come you have repeated your comments from the last thread on here? Very selective clearly!
    _________________
    ALLAN CHRISTIE
    Good evening all from rural Hampshire.
    I did say in the last thread that I don’t like to regurgitate stuff from previous threads but this post does have relevance for this thread
    ….

    Talk about being selective!! Get to your bed ya midden

  30. It’s amazing the length some peeps will go just to have a cheap pop at others.

    Anyway good night.

  31. Mr N

    EdBalls Day felicitations to you too!

    Sadly, too few remember the emotional resonance of the creator’s birth.

  32. Happy Ed Balls day?

    Think I’ll stick to my North Korean idols thanks.

  33. Allan Christie

    Heathen! Unbeliever! Repent your apostasy or be forever damned!

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/alanwhite/16-important-facts-about-ed-balls-day?utm_term=.fsqPJnGxg#.ug3KM5ZqA

  34. New YouGov poll in Times-

    Remain -41% Leave 42%

    Voting Intention – Con 30 Lab 33 UKIP 20 LD 6

  35. Graham

    I see from Twitter that YG are saying that there may be some methodology problem with that poll. Doubtless Anthony will clear that up for us. tomorrow.

  36. Oldnat – the 20% looks like a bit of an outlier. Other stuff we’ve been doing does not suggest a boost of that size.

    I’m pondering what we should be doing with don’t knows too. As you know, YouGov have always just ignored don’t knows completely rather than using a squeeze question or reallocating them.

    This never used to make a difference, but now our samples have more people with lower interest in politics it does as we get more people who say don’t know. In this particular poll there were plenty of former Lab, Con & LD voters who said don’t know, but very few UKIPpers, so any squeeze or reallocation would have reduced their support. I”m also conscious that women are more likely to say don’t know, so excluding don’t knows rather than reallocating or squeezing them in some way will increase the level of support for parties who get their support mostly from men.

    Anyway, modelling turnout and how we deal with don’t knows are things we’re still looking at following the BPC inquiry, so both may yet change over the fullness of time.

  37. No posting at all on the latest (You Gov) Welsh polls?

    Likely outcome of the election remains the same (Lab largest party but no majority) but down to 29% in constituency polls and 33% in the regional lists; these are quite a fall from their successes of 2011 and nearly all the lost vote seems to have gone to UKIP. Suggestions that turnout will be low too which is probably bad news for both Tories and Lab.

    Beyond this PC are more obviously in second place with the Tories’ long term robust showing in Welsh polls taking a hit, I guess from the handling of Tata.

    UKIP will get their first seats in the Senedd and this will force Lab into some sort of accommodation with PC (unless the Libs do surprisingly well) though how formally remains to be seen

  38. AW
    “In this particular poll there were plenty of former Lab, Con & LD voters who said don’t know, but very few UKIPpers, so any squeeze or reallocation would have reduced their support.”

    But couldn’t the former Lab, Con, LD voters now be Don’t Know because they are thinking of switching to UKIP? (because of the impending referendum)

  39. “Happy Ed Balls Day, one and all.”

    ————–

    That time again already? Time flies, etc….

    Ed Balls.

  40. WELSH BORDERERERER:
    “(d) the alleged short-sightedness of the Welsh and English electorates compared with our omniscient northern cousins etc etc”

    Come now, “alleged” is surely superfluous?