The Evening Standard had a new YouGov London poll today, showing a commanding lead for Sadiq Khan in the mayoral race. First round voting intentions are KHAN 48%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 6%, PIDGEON 5%. After reallocating the second preferences of eliminated candidates Sadiq Khan wins by twenty points on the second round. Full tabs are here

The huge Labour lead looks startling, but it is actually broadly in line with YouGov’s national polling. Their last couple of GB polls had Labour and the Conservatives very close in their levels of support, which is the equivalent of a CON=>LAB swing of 3.5% since the general election. Last year Labour outpolled the Conservatives by nine percent in the capital, doing much better there than in the rest of Britain. Add on a national swing of 3.5% to Labour’s 2015 lead in London and you’d expect to find them about 16 points ahead, which is exactly where they are.

The 2016 London mayoral election looks like one of voting along ordinary party lines. The first two directly elected mayors of London were very unusual “showbiz” politicians, widely known by just their first names. Ken Livingstone initially ran an an independent and even after rejoining was clearly always semi-detached from and not reliant upon London Labour. Boris was Boris – the paltry link between his electoral success and that of his nominal party underlined by the voting figures at the last mayoral election. Boris was four points ahead of Ken in the first round of the mayoral vote, but Labour were nine points ahead of the Conservatives in the simultaeneous vote for the London Assembly – a gap of 13 points between their performance in the mayoral vote and the assembly vote.

There is no such gap in this mayoral election. If you compare mayoral voting intentions and London assembly voting intentions this time round there is no significant contrast – Sadiq Khan is 16 points head in the mayoral vote, Labour are 16 points ahead in the London Assembly vote.

If we put aside the personality driven politics of the mayoral election, London is an increasingly Labour city. Labour won hefty victories in every other electoral contest in London in the last Parliament – they won the European election by 14 points, the local elections by 13 points, the London assembly by 9 points, the general election by 9 points. If Zac Goldsmith was to be competitive he needed to appeal to non-Conservative voters, and while he is getting some support from Liberal Democrat and UKIP supporters it really isn’t enough. With only a fortnight to go. Sadiq Khan’s position is looking very comfortable.


379 Responses to “YouGov/Standard London poll gives Khan a commanding lead”

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  1. @Colin

    “First the effects of this strike on patients.
    Second -what do the BMA do next?”

    —————-

    Well one thing is that they can keep banging on about how the underfunding of the seven day thing will impact patient safety. Think it’ll work?…

  2. “The government really should push out an aggressive recruitment drive abroad for doctors to come over to England and not be held to ransom by tambourine banging hippies who call themselves doctors.”

    ———-

    Well there’s the thing innit. There’s already a shortage of dooctors before the demands of the seven day thing. If it was the private sector, private sector advocates would say therefore the market should pay them more to attract more docs, but somehow if its public sector they should be paid less if anything.

    This is without considering whether we should be depriving poorer countries of doctors they’ve trained up…

  3. CARFREW

    Yes, I’m sure they can. They have changed their minds so many times on what they are actually striking about -you only have to read the banners.

    God knows why Hunt doesn’t explain what the sticking points actually are . I think that if the public realised that they are striking to make Saturday working more expensive for NHS, it might impact their support.

    Anyway-I think support will drift down slowly. It all depends on ( god forbid) bad effects on patients from this strike-and how far/long BMA are going to keep this going.

  4. @Colin

    Quite so, indeed, as I said ‘Much will depend on the next two days and how the story plays out’.

    It’s not a given that doctors will retain the current levels of support amongst the public; however, as the figures show, the speedy erosion of support that might previously have been supposed is also not a certainty.

    We will have to wait and see whether the effects of this round of the dispute turn out to be more severe for patients than previous action, which thus far hasn’t shifted opinion enormously. As others have pointed out it, this isn’t an all out strike by doctors as the consultants will be covering critical services (and there is no action in the other parts of the UK).

    Where next? One of the reasons why many NHS employers (at the Trust level) have been less than supportive of the Department for Health position is that they have practical understanding of the difficulties in medical recruitment and retention and the range of options beyond industrial action available to the ‘junior doctors’.

    It’s worth bearing in mind that fully a third of the profession qualified overseas, 42% are women and that people from BME communities are significantly over-represented amongst this group relative to the general population (fewer than 40% of doctors identify as ‘white British or Irish’ according to the GMC – though 26% didn’t report an ethnicity).

    Given these factors, all the following trends are all ready being noted amongst workforce managers and could quite possibly increase:

    + female doctors electing to have their children now, leaving the profession until ‘the situation is sorted out’;

    + doctors ‘opting out’ of advancing their training at present and taking on locum work at their current grade, and on their terms (this is already a huge trend in general practice, which is causing problems at a leadership level);

    + more academically minded doctors opting to take research electives and pursuing MD / PhD qualifications rather than continuing on full rota;

    + doctors seeking opportunities overseas – remember many of these doctors do not have strong familial or historic links with the UK and will pursue their career elsewhere if they perceive the system here to be unsafe or the career options unpromising.

    As doctors contracts are awarded on a fairly rapid rotation, the effects of the above would not be immediate, but in the medium term could be hugely significant.

    All this talk of a ‘miners’ strike moment’ might be interesting for the political journalists covering ‘the battle’. But the reality is, the Government is not locked in a dispute with a static, (largely) poorly educated, semi-skilled workforce in a declining industry.

    They are (or not) negotiating with a highly skilled, highly mobile professional elite in a global healthcare industry that is continuing to grow. All of those ‘juniors’ who have completed the membership examinations for their respective Royal Colleges are a marketable commodity both here and abroad, even if they step out of training.

    It is naive to assume they can be treated like the staff of Tata Steel or British Home Stores.

    So the question of ‘where from here?’ is just as much one for the Government as the BMA. If deadlock continues and staff drift away from the UK or (temporarily) the profession, who makes up the shortfall?

    Before people point overseas, there are issues of language competence. qualification compatibility and competition from other countries, meaning this is not a tap that can be turned on (much more than it currently is) in the way it once was, at least not without compromising on standards.

  5. @Colin

    Well that’s the thing. Are peeps more bothered about the money or will they pay more for more doctors and more safety? There will be peeps in one camp and peeps in the other so this is where we need polling!!…

  6. As a frequent user of the NHS (spinal injury 27 years ago) and a tambourine owning leftie I do have some sympathy with the arguments for a 24/7 NHS. Not with Hunt as he is just trying to get something for nothing.

    As an in-patient, I was often aware that the staffing level was noticeable lower at weekends and if a problem arouse then the wait for a medic could be considerably longer than on a weekday. Whether my life was in danger I really don’t know.

    Also I have wondered about day surgery units which work weekdays only. All the theatres and equipment stand idle outside of 9-5 Mon to Fri. Is this making the best use of the capital spent on this equipment?

    At the end of the day, I will support the Junior Doctors with less misgivings than I would have supported the miners.

  7. Strange, it appears that if you think the 70s were great you’re of a broadly left-leaning position, and if you think the 70s were awful and the 80s great, you’re of a right-leaning position.

    I wonder what could possibly explain this disparity…

    @Colin

    “God knows why Hunt doesn’t explain what the sticking points actually are”

    Perhaps because the sticking point is patient safety and Hunt would look bad if he explained that he had a hang up over that?

    I throw it out there for consideration

  8. I should add, that some might support paying doctors more on principle, beyond patient safety issues. One reason is to try and attract the very best into a critical role, another is to support society rewarding more socially useful endeavours as opposed to bankers taking down the economy etc.)

    Some might even support more funding because they don’t wanna see the service run down as a prelude to privatisation. Alternatively some might favour more privatisation because they spy opportunities to make some money. Again, we need polling to answer these questions.

  9. @Colin

    “Anyway-I think support will drift down slowly. It all depends on ( god forbid) bad effects on patients from this strike-and how far/long BMA are going to keep this going.”

    I’m sure that is many people’s assumption, but if anything these figures indicate that support for the doctors has held up more than expected in the transition from partial to full industrial action.

    It’s a big if, but if the the next two days pass without significant incident, it’s possible that the notion of ‘full strike’ will become less off putting than it previously was to the public.

    As to why Jeremy Hunt hasn’t better articulated his inarguable reasons for imposing a contract – well one has to wonder. He’s accused the doctors of wanting to sustain a system that kills people at the weekend, so saying they are simply avaricious wouldn’t really represent much in the way of an escalation in rhetoric.

  10. @AU

    I don’t think it has to be about left and right. One can cherry-pick best bits of left and right and add in extra on top. Thus one can see the left have a point about supporting business in a prolonged downturn, and the right have a point about some of the restrictive practice stuff etc.

  11. Must say that whenever I’ve been in hospital… No tambourines!! Feel strangely cheated and wondering what Hunt is gonna do about the tambourine shortage…

  12. @EOTW

    “As a frequent user of the NHS (spinal injury 27 years ago) and a tambourine owning leftie I do have some sympathy with the arguments for a 24/7 NHS. Not with Hunt as he is just trying to get something for nothing.
    “As an in-patient, I was often aware that the staffing level was noticeable lower at weekends and if a problem arouse then the wait for a medic could be considerably longer than on a weekday. Whether my life was in danger I really don’t know.”

    A very good point. Certainly there’s a case for more staff – particularly consultants – to be on duty at the weekend to ensure the care of inpatients. Though there has to be a recognition that to deliver this requires more money not ‘ring fenced’ budgets at the same level.

    As to whether the whole NHS should be run 24 hours, 7 days a week – diagnostics, day surgery, elective surgery, outpatients consultations, nurse led clinics, physio etc etc is a different matter.

    Where it has been trialled, DNA (Did Not Attend) rates amongst patients are substantially higher (up to a staggering 60%) so there is a real question of wastage. Patients often claim they want NHS services available at the weekend, but when they are provided for more routine matters take up can be low (the same was true of 7-day GP clinics).

    It’s noticeable how many service industry providers still don’t operate fully at the weekend – from banks to hairdressers, solicitors to dentists (mainly private sector outside London).

    Probably wiser to shape NHS structures, staffing and expenditure around patient behaviours rather than ‘wish list’ opinion polling (heresy here, I know).

  13. @ Carfrew

    “Must say that whenever I’ve been in hospital… No tambourines!! Feel strangely cheated and wondering what Hunt is gonna do about the tambourine shortage…”

    Tambourines are only administered to patients reading the DM, DT, Sun and Express in line with NICE guidelines… that’s how deep the leftie-ness goes in the medical profession.

  14. “It’s noticeable how many service industry providers still don’t operate fully at the weekend”

    ———–

    Does Allan not work at weekends?

  15. “Assiduous”

    I don’t mind reading right wing press but don’t recall reading papers of any kind in hospital. Pethidine rather diminished one’s paper-reading initiative. (Nurses did bring a guitar in for me later on though, and other things…)

  16. Tambourines on the NHS? Political correctness gone mad, what happened to the good old days of Guiness for anaemia and 20 woodbine for breathing problems

  17. @Carfrew

    Pethidine? We you having a little Carfrew at the time?

  18. @Carfrew

    ‘Were’

  19. @ Colin

    Hunt can’t spell out the sticking point – more resources for the NHS that the previous government cut and the current one is cutting (the budget figure doesn’t matter – measure it against fixed resources and increased need, and you will see huge cuts). It has been counterbalanced by the vocational commitment of the medical staff. He asked them more – as the DoH has implemented an essentially Fordist system, which cannot rely on employee goodwill – it inevitably failed.

    The importing of doctors and nurses could overcome the problem providing that the government wants to lose the next elections.

    The reason for not having a compromise between the two sides is simply the need of resources on one side and taking away resources on the other.

    How it goes then in public perception? It will depend on the visual media (the press doesn’t really matter – their position has been spelt out for some time, and hopefully the Sun, which supports both sides, will be sued out of existence

  20. @EOTW

    I believe wine is still available on prescription in France.

  21. No, I was in a bad way cos had been misdiagnosed…

    Well, I say misdiagnosed: the doctor who admitted me and actually examined me correctly diagnosed the problem. But others who hadn’t examined me disagreed and it all went downhill from there, until I realised I needed to take control of things and start telling docs what to do.

    This is why it’s not a left-right thing for me and why I have sympathies with old Col over the NHS…

  22. @Assiduosity

    Soz, my post immediately above was supposed to be addressed to U…

  23. @CARFREW
    No, I was in a bad way cos had been misdiagnosed…

    Despite what I have said above re supporting doctors, they do seem to make an awful lot of diagnostic mistakes which they are reluctant to own up to. I am aware of 3 close friends who were misdiagnosed early on leading to early mortality.

    I do believe IT could offer solutions here, combining the methodology of the best diagnostic doctors (as in the hologram doctor in Star Trek Voyager without the hologram).

  24. EOTW
    “I do believe IT could offer solutions here, combining the methodology of the best diagnostic doctors (as in the hologram doctor in Star Trek Voyager without the hologram).”

    But then anybody could do it, and the closed shop would be broken.

  25. At the moment, the NHS has a 10% vacancy rate for doctors and support staff. So if a pebble represents a half of a weekday’s worth of staff, !0 pebbles are needed to fill 10 holes for the 5 days of the normal working week… but there are already only 9 pebbles.

    A 7 day full NHS service, therefore requires 14 pebbles. The issue for the Junior Doctors is that it is impossible to use 9 pebbles to fill 14 holes without reducing patient care.

    As far as I know, the Hunt proposals are cost neutral, staff neutral and as such, do not make much sense. Therefore, there must be another agenda … presumably a private sector agenda.

  26. @EOTW

    Given the demands of the discipline, and the way politicians who know sweet FA about how to design a complex system keep screwimg with it, it’s amazing they do as well as they do.

    But this is what I mean about transcending left and right. Peeps in certain parts of the private sector, e.g. who design airline systems, have been way ahead in aspects of designing safe, efficient systems and consequently have been able to beneficially advise hospitals.

    Just the introduction of checklists, common in aviation, has been shown to improve patient outcomes markedly. There was an article in the Times about it yesterday.

  27. @PETE B

    “But then anybody could do it, and the closed shop would be broken.”

    ————-

    Well in the tension between conspiracy vs cock-up, it’s a really challenge to design an effective computer system for summat so complex. Interestingly in the same article yesterday it was on about how enthusiastic junor doctors have been adapting the computer system so it works better…

    P.s.interesting about the FORTRAN/COBOL comparison. (Got introduced to the former at Uni but never encountered cobol…)

  28. @ Laszlo

    “…and hopefully the Sun, which supports both sides, will be sued out of existence…”

    Are we talking about Hillsborough here?

  29. @PeteB

    EOTW

    ““I do believe IT could offer solutions here, combining the methodology of the best diagnostic doctors (as in the hologram doctor in Star Trek Voyager without the hologram).”

    But then anybody could do it, and the closed shop would be broken.”

    There is – unsurprisingly – an awful lot of work going on in this area at the moment. But the idea that computerised diagnosis could do away with the human intermediary between ‘best practice’ and the patient is a very long way off. So much of the diagnosis comes from physical manipulation, verbal contact and much less than we might imagine from test results.

    Also there’s the question of patient resistance. for example in Wales, where they are moving to a multi-disciplinary primary health system in which nurses and pharmacists play a big triage and early diagnosis / referral role (often using IT based diagnostics), a lot of the punters object loudly – and the Conservatives have also used it as part of their attack on a ‘failing Welsh health service’.

    Where doctors can remove themselves from the equation – around the diagnosis and management of sexual health conditions via tests, or diabetes care or weight management or smoking cessation, they’ve actually been very keen to do so, in order that they can concentrate scarce resources elsewhere.

    The first diagnostic handbook was written by Esagil-kin-apli of Borsippa during the reign of king Adad-apla-iddina, 1069-1046 BCE, we might be waiting another 3,000 years before there’s a hologram to replace doctors – oh, and didn’t Enterprise still have an intermediary who consulted the hologram?

  30. Additional issues noted by Hammond

    The withholding of important info…

    “The government’s manifesto also promised: ‘We will continue to ensure we have enough doctors, nurses and other staff to meet patients’ needs.’ However, the government halted and then tried to prevent the publication of vital work by NICE to determine safe staffing levels, developed after the Mid Staffs scandal to try to prevent future scandals where there are dangerously low levels of staff. This withholding of crucial evidence is seriously at odds with the government’s manifesto commitment to make the NHS the safest health service in the world. The only plausible explanation is that they do not wish to commit the money to funding the safe staffing levels needed.

    Tax payers should be asked if they wish to pay more into the NHS to fund safe staffing.”

    Other actions exacerbating the issue…

    “For junior doctors, there are already dangerous gaps in the rotas for many specialties every day of the week because there simply aren’t enough doctors to fill them. Putting a cap on locum fees has made the rota gaps worse. Extending cover safely over the weekends can only happen with more doctors, not by spreading the already exhausted workforce more thinly.”

    The dangers of burnout etc….

    “Shift systems harm both mental and physical health, and where they’re unavoidable, such as in the NHS, a great deal of care and expertise needs to be put into designing them to ensure minimal sleep disruption, adequate recovery time and a fair work life balance. Junior doctors have the additional requirement that they are doctors in training, and so need protected training time alongside providing a safe service.

    In attempting to increase cover at weekends without increasing overall staffing levels, NHS Employers has produced sample rotas that probably aren’t safe for doctors or patients. They would appear they have been rushed through without the essential input of sleep and fatigue specialists. As Dr Michael Farquar, a Consultant in Paediatric Sleep Medicine, wrote in the Independent: ‘I note with dismay the rotas that include frequent rapid cycling between long (13 hour) day and night shifts. These ill-considered proposals run a risk of creating increasingly jet-lagged doctors, more likely to make mistakes while carrying out tasks which require high levels of attention and judgement. I urge NHS employers to reconsider, taking into view evidence collated by the Health and Safety Executive and the Royal College of Physicians.”

    Unfortunate knock on effects…I

    “The new junior doctors contract would appear to reward doctors in specialties with little or no on-call duty, but may penalise those in specialties with lots of emergency duty. These are precisely the doctors we need to train to improve 24/7 urgent and emergency care in the NHS and the fear is that these emergency specialties will become less attractive to doctors.”

    Problems of imposition…

    “To repeat, the new contract has not even been published in full, and the final terms and conditions are still being decided. To announce imposition of an unwritten contract so far in advance of publication has been hugely divisive. Sample rotas and pay calculators have been rushed out, found to contain significant errors and then withdrawn. Such an important contract cannot be rushed through and made up on the hoof just to meet a political deadline. It’s far more important to slow down, think clearly and get it right.”

  31. @Carfrew

    “Just the introduction of checklists, common in aviation, has been shown to improve patient outcomes markedly.”

    There was a fascinating documentary on either R4 or the World Service about the US doctor who leads the way in designing out failure (systemic medicine).

    The results, as you say, are quite remarkable. For the systems to be put in place requires a wholesale re-thinking of the way in which medical teams operate (firstly as unified teams, including cleaners, caterers. orderlies in the equation) and there are few immediate efficiencies to be made as hospitals – under his approach – have to run at higher ratios.

    The advantages are fewer complications, quicker recovery times, fewer post procedural infections, faster turnover of patients and lower cost-per-admission over 2-3 year periods.

    However, the upfront investment and retraining required has met resistance. He – and I wish I could remember his name – compares the approach to the introduction of aseptic techniques in the late C19.

  32. ANARCHISTS UNITE

    “Perhaps because the sticking point is patient safety and Hunt would look bad if he explained that he had a hang up over that?”

    But it’s not, the sticking point is overtime rates for weekend working. There is also of course a political agenda by some of the strikers.

    Had a private appointment with my oncologist this morning but no signs of any dispute in the NHS areas which were busy. Probably atypical since the hospital is a specialist cancer hospital but maybe the strike is weakening?

  33. @Assiduosity

    Yeah it’s difficult to convey to others because looking at systems holistically, with their weird knock-on effects is challenging.

    But yes there are political issues: upfront costs with benefits (perhaps to your political opponents) some way down the line. Same problem with preventative medicine. Quite pleased that this government have at least taken some steps on the sugar thing…

  34. @Colin and Carfrew

    “For junior doctors, there are already dangerous gaps in the rotas for many specialties every day of the week because there simply aren’t enough doctors to fill them. Putting a cap on locum fees has made the rota gaps worse.”

    It was asked earlier what ‘junior’ doctors could do next.

    Well, if a significant number put their careers on hold and only made themselves available to work as locums… now that would cause a problem.

    They wouldn’t be refusing to work, just refusing to sign the contract they didn’t accept and working under its terms. It’s what more and more GPs are doing.

    Of course there are reports about the BMA being ‘spilt’ on this issue. But it doesn’t need to act as a whole union or for all doctors to do it, just a decent minority and the system will soon start to feel the strain.

  35. @Assiduosity

    Yes, once one has analysed the issues of the dispute itself, then it becomes about who has the power, which includes who has the better memes, but also what practical responses they come up with.

    Hunt and his peeps vs Doctors. Which way would peeps bet? That would make for some interesting polling. Who do punters think will win out in the dispute?

  36. @ToH

    At one level, one can view the dispute as an argument over what’s best for patient care.

    At another level, one can see it as a battle between vested interests: employees trying to improve their lot vs government pursuing a privatisation or similar agenda. Whereupon it becomes about to what extent will opinion be swayed by these things? Which would they side with? Again, if they put a pool ng question that way…

  37. Pool ng = polling

  38. Good afternoon all.

    Well I’m glad to see we have shifted on from the dark old days of the 70’s and moved onto musical instruments.

    CARFREW

    No I don’t work at weekends and that’s due to the organisation’s in which the company I work for deal with being closed at weekends so there is no point our offices being open on a Saturday or Sunday.

    However for me personally I would rather have a day off during the week and a weekend day off because that way when I want to visit my dentist (who is closed at weekends) I don’t have to take an afternoon off during the week and start arranging with other people to cover for me.

    But for now and until I need a new filling I’m quite content with having weekends off and a long weekend off once a month. I can also buy an extra day off once a fortnight and the difference taken off my 6 weeks holiday entitlement.

    Anyway with Euro 2016 just around the corner I’m needing to find some time to fine tune my tambourine.

  39. I’ve just had a quick look at Junior doctors pay.

    “Basic salary for junior doctors starts at about £23,000 but increases in the second year to about £28,000 (Pay for doctors – NHS Careers). For a doctor in specialist training, the basic salary is between £30,000 and £47,000”

    “Junior doctors get more for working extra and anti-social hours (currently classified as outside 07:00 to 19:00 Monday to Friday) on top of the basic salary, which boosts their income”

    “According to figures from the NHS Employers Organisation, the average total salary for a doctor in training is around £37,000.

    “The new contract changes anti-social hours to outside 07:00 to 22:00 Monday to Saturday, making Saturday between 07:00 and 22:00 part of a junior doctor’s normal working week”

    So without going into the actual pay per annum (we would all love a bit more) the issue appears to be around the classification of Saturday and Sunday working going from anti-social hours to that of being part of a normal working week.

    The way I see it is that the whole public sector seem to think working at weekends is working anti social hours and therefore they should be compensated for it…

    I don’t won’t my bind empted on a Saturday morning when I’m still in bed keeping my feet nice cosy, I want my bins empted during the week when I’m at work and when the going rate per hour for a bin man is cheaper.

  40. “The way I see it is that the whole public sector seem to think working at weekends is working anti social hours and therefore they should be compensated for it…”

    Do you think no one in the private sector gets extra money for working weekends?

    Both my sons worked for supermarkets while at sixth form and got a higher rate on Sundays.

    The private care agency charges me £16.08 p/h weekdays 7am-7pm, £19.00 p/h weekends.

    I think the constant demonization of public sector workers, apart from a few select professions, must be very demoralizing for them.

  41. Welsh poll

    EU Ref

    Remain: 41% (+3)
    Leave: 37% (-2)
    Don’t Know / Wouldn’t Vote: 22% (-1)

    Westminster

    Labour: 37% (-1)
    Conservatives: 23% (+1)
    UKIP: 17% (-1)
    Plaid Cymru: 13% (no change)
    Liberal Democrats: 7% (+1)
    Others: 3% (-1)

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/04/26/westminster-and-eu-referendum-figures/

  42. @Allan C

    “No I don’t work at weekends and that’s due to the organisation’s in which the company I work for deal with being closed at weekends so there is no point our offices being open on a Saturday or Sunday.”

    —————

    But think of your customers!! Would they find life easier if you worked at weekends? Or would they find it easier if you worked less? (Obviously from our point of view, you working less means you have more time for posting here…)

  43. In the meantime…

    “Labour’s support in Wales has fallen 15 points since April 2012 – as UKIP look set to become more influential in Wales than in Westminster or Holyrood”

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/04/26/wales-election-labour-down/

    Latest polling in Wales
    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/04/25/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-4/

    Labour: 33% (-2)

    Plaid Cymru: 21% (no change)

    Conservatives: 19% (no change)

    UKIP: 15% (-2)

    Liberal Democrats: 8% (+2)

    Others: 3% (no change)

    For the regional list vote, the figures in our new poll are as follows (with changes from the last poll again in brackets):

    Labour: 29% (-2)

    Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2)

    Conservatives: 19 (-1)

    UKIP: 15% (-1)

    Liberal Democrats: 8% (+3)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Others: 4% (+1)

    Labour: 28 seats (26 constituency seats + 2 list seats)

    Plaid Cymru: 13 seats (7 constituency seats + 6 list seats)

    Conservatives: 10 seats (5 constituency seats + 5 list seats)

    UKIP: 7 seats (7 list seats)

    Liberal Democrats: 2 seats (2 constituency seats
    ………

    I can’t understand a party in which 70% of the Welsh people look like dumping can still go onto winning almost half the seats in what is meant to be a PR system?

    What does it take to remove Carwyn Jones?

  44. “Do you think no one in the private sector gets extra money for working weekends?”

    ————

    It is weird. At least doctors don’t tend to get paid zillions for wrecking the economy. Yet strangely peeps getting exercised by doctors pay don’t worry about bankers much.

    That would be a good polling question. Is it consistent to complain about doctors pay when in the private sector you’d think it OK to pay more if there was a shortage as that reflects demand, and you don’t care about bankers getting a great big wedge for screwing up?

    I mean if there’s a shortage it rather suggests doctors could actually command rather more as it stands Regardless of the seven day thing if we were going by market rthing They’re working on the cheap.

  45. CARFREW

    “But think of your customers!! Would they find life easier if you worked at weekends? Or would they find it easier if you worked less? (Obviously from our point of view, you working less means you have more time for posting here…)”
    ______

    Cough!! Clients please not customers. We (the company I work for) would find it easier if the people who we deal with were available at weekends.

    For the graduates and work experience who we have on-board it would had been highly beneficial for them to have them come in and do some work at weekends but there would be no exposure to the clients we deal with because as I said they are not weekend people.

  46. @AC

    Though the junior doctors indicate they believe the dispute is about more than pay, it is worth pausing for a moment to consider how medics are remunerated in comparison to other professionals.

    So lets leave bankers and those in finance out of it. But take the legal profession. Research reported in the DT 12 month ago stated that as a lawyer:

    “… on average the job pays £54,000 for the first five years, rising to £76,000 for those with five to 10 years of experience. Lawyers who have been practising for between 10 and 15 years can expect to earn £100,000, while those with more than 15 years can command £181,000 a year.”

    Whilst lawyers are – occasionally – involved in life changing work (though more often mind numbing), there seems little reason for this disparity in earnings between them and the medical profession, which didn’t exist to the same extent 30-40 years ago.

  47. @Allan

    “Cough!! Clients please not customers. We (the company I work for) would find it easier if the people who we deal with were available at weekends.”

    —————-

    Disgraceful that no one wants to be available when it suits you. Not even your your clients. Perhaps if you offered better rates at weekends as an inducement, market forces etc.

  48. LASZLO

    @”Hunt can’t spell out the sticking point ”

    He did do-in HoC yesterday. He just doesn’t do it in public -or in the Press.

    He addressed their latest “reason” for striking too-he gave the recruitment plans over this parliament.

    He also spelled out the pay deal.

    I would really like to see full page adverts with the contract key terms & the guts of his HoC statement.

    There hasn’t been a Health Sec who hasn’t faced this BMA intransigence in my memory.

    Wait till Hunt gets to the Consultants’ Contract !

  49. “Though the junior doctors indicate they believe the dispute is about more than pay”

    ———–

    Notable the lack of engagement with this and what Syzygy pointed out with her pebble analogy. Safety, funding cuts, sidelined in favour of just a focus on pay…

  50. @Carfew

    I know, I was making a tongue in cheek point about how some people’s vision of the past seems to be influenced by the political leanings ;)

    For what it’s worth, my own position tends to fall along the lines of not caring what the colour of the cat is. If thing x achieves objective y then it doesn’t really matter to me if its perceived as a ‘right’ or ‘left’ wing thing.

    @TOH

    That’s certainly the line the government is running with, as they try and whip up the politics of envy in support of their position. But if that is the actual sticking point then I don’t get Colin’s point about Hunt not explaining the sticking point, because all he’s done for the last x number of months is howl about how the Junior Doctors are grubbing for more cash.

    @On Hippie tambourine playing leftists

    It’s just occurred to me that we may be looking at this all wrong; perhaps the Junior Doctors are in fact capitalists and are just trying to maximize their own advantage.

    I mean I know they’re not because if they were there would be no end of Times editorials cheering them on and talking about supply and demand and the economics of scarcity, but it’s worth a thought.

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