The Evening Standard had a new YouGov London poll today, showing a commanding lead for Sadiq Khan in the mayoral race. First round voting intentions are KHAN 48%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 6%, PIDGEON 5%. After reallocating the second preferences of eliminated candidates Sadiq Khan wins by twenty points on the second round. Full tabs are here

The huge Labour lead looks startling, but it is actually broadly in line with YouGov’s national polling. Their last couple of GB polls had Labour and the Conservatives very close in their levels of support, which is the equivalent of a CON=>LAB swing of 3.5% since the general election. Last year Labour outpolled the Conservatives by nine percent in the capital, doing much better there than in the rest of Britain. Add on a national swing of 3.5% to Labour’s 2015 lead in London and you’d expect to find them about 16 points ahead, which is exactly where they are.

The 2016 London mayoral election looks like one of voting along ordinary party lines. The first two directly elected mayors of London were very unusual “showbiz” politicians, widely known by just their first names. Ken Livingstone initially ran an an independent and even after rejoining was clearly always semi-detached from and not reliant upon London Labour. Boris was Boris – the paltry link between his electoral success and that of his nominal party underlined by the voting figures at the last mayoral election. Boris was four points ahead of Ken in the first round of the mayoral vote, but Labour were nine points ahead of the Conservatives in the simultaeneous vote for the London Assembly – a gap of 13 points between their performance in the mayoral vote and the assembly vote.

There is no such gap in this mayoral election. If you compare mayoral voting intentions and London assembly voting intentions this time round there is no significant contrast – Sadiq Khan is 16 points head in the mayoral vote, Labour are 16 points ahead in the London Assembly vote.

If we put aside the personality driven politics of the mayoral election, London is an increasingly Labour city. Labour won hefty victories in every other electoral contest in London in the last Parliament – they won the European election by 14 points, the local elections by 13 points, the London assembly by 9 points, the general election by 9 points. If Zac Goldsmith was to be competitive he needed to appeal to non-Conservative voters, and while he is getting some support from Liberal Democrat and UKIP supporters it really isn’t enough. With only a fortnight to go. Sadiq Khan’s position is looking very comfortable.


379 Responses to “YouGov/Standard London poll gives Khan a commanding lead”

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  1. @ Peter Cairns

    Not quite.

    In the event of a 52:48 win for Remain, and the kind of Remain lead you’re expecting in Scotland, the 4-point Remain lead might comprise 2.5% in Scotland, around 1% in Northern Ireland, and 0.5% in England and Wales!

  2. James E,

    Spot on, so we need it to be really close, about 51/49.

    Peter.

  3. Peter

    So that indyref that Nicola was talking about, should Scotland & England vote in opposite ways. Was it

    1. Good politics, because she can read polls as well as anyone else, and reckons it won’t happen

    or

    2. An English indyref to restore English sovereignty and keep the Welsh out?

  4. OldNat,

    It’s telling Indy supporters what they want to here even if it’s unlikely to happen.

    The cynical amongst you might quip;
    “Oh, just like the Referendum!”

    Peter.

  5. @ Peter Cairns

    Actually, the overall polling evidence from Scotland suggests a rather bigger Remain lead than the particular example Old Nat has given us. And Northern Ireland, which is not included in most pollsters samples is (I’m my opinion) quite likely to around 70:30 for Remain.

    Because of this, I’d expect the combined Remain lead from Scotland and Northern Ireland to be around 4 points – and so would be critical in the event that Leave wins narrowly in England.

    For what it’s worth, I’d read the overall GB EURef polling evidence as around a 4 point GB lead for Remain – probably comprising 3 points in Scotland and 1 in England and Wales.

  6. James E

    Another Welsh Political Barometer poll out tomorrow morning – so we’ll get more info on the Welsh component.

  7. Such polling as there has been suggests that Wales may be similar to England, but we shall see.

    There’s some interesting data here:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

  8. 1) four pages of delusional wishful thinking – VI is clearly balkanizing along ethnic lines with lab benefiting in the metropolitan areas and Con in the white flight areas.

    2) the idea that the working class areas of the big cities haven’t been totally transformed in the last 16 years is a blatant lie. Personally I am very much looking forward to when the same thing happens to the middle classes – oh how I shall laugh.

    3) critical bit – if Con voters who aren’t connected to the banking mafia haven’t figured out yet that they are being betrayed by their leadership for the benefit of the cheap labor lobby then i’m surprised they can cross the road unaccompanied.

    It’s not just the left wanting the votes it’s the bankster wing of the right who want the cheap labor. They benefit from that and don’t feel the costs. The people who’ll pay the cost of the country gradually turning majority poor will be the current Con voters.

    4) it’s amazing people can talk the usual nonsense about the EU when we’ve just seen a massive EU power grab over borders and immigration control as a result of the crisis Merkel created for that purpose – but that’s what you get when the dominant media censors the news.

  9. “people can talk the usual nonsense …”

    Have to agree with that bit.

  10. “4) it’s amazing people can talk the usual nonsense about the EU when we’ve just seen a massive EU power grab over borders and immigration control as a result of the crisis Merkel created for that purpose – but that’s what you get when the dominant media censors the news.”

    And they are clearly also putting listening devices in people tinfoil hats!

    Peter.

  11. Austria is voting for their President (ceremonial role) at the moment, and the far-right Freedom Party has topped the polls in the first round.

    So, the lurch to the far right in Hungary, Poland and Slovakia is now happening in Austria. Likely the govt will shift to the far right as well when their elections come up. I wonder which country is going to be next? And what will our response be if the EU’s Council of Ministers becomes dominated by far-right govts?

  12. Candy

    ” And what will our response be if the EU’s Council of Ministers becomes dominated by far-right govts?”

    Presumably your far-right newspapers will be very supportive – just as they were in the 1930s.

  13. @OldNat

    We don’t have any far-right papers. But never mind, Ms Sturgeon will fill the vacuum by waxing lyrical about how wonderful the EU Council of Ministers is no matter which types of govt dominates them! : -)

  14. Candy,

    Worse still even as we speak Merkels fleet of U-boats are patrolling our sewers dropped at night from her squadrons of stealth Zeppelins!

    Peter.

  15. Candy

    Fair point.

    I don’t suppose that any paper would be “far” right from your perspective, though it would be hard for anyone to argue that papers like the Daily Mail have become more “left” since the 30s.

    Those of you who talk of Remainers as “waxing lyrical” about an aspect of an institution that they see as being beneficial, on the balance of advantage, do expose yourselves as being rather silly.

  16. @mrjones

    The Daily Mail comments section can be found by googling it.

  17. @Somerjohn – re the proportion of laws made in Brussels – I really think that we ought to recognise that a large proportion of UK laws and regulations are determined by the EU in some way or other. To argue otherwise is a little pointless, and also missing the point, The critical question is whether sharing sovereignty with a larger grouping is worthwhile, not whether or not we are sharing sovereignty – we clearly are.

    The HoC library did some research in 2010 and found that 10-14% of UK Acts of parliament were in response to EU requirements, while 9-14% of UK regulations were. However, off all regulations applying to the UK, 53% were from the EU, so technically the majority.

    The European Commission also has extensive powers of interpretation of treaties and so enforces regulations on things like States Aid. They recently decided not to raise the de minimis level, for example, which many states had asked for, and have an extremely stern interpretation of what constitutes ‘cross border trade’.

    For example, my villages youth club looks set to close, as the umbrella body that runs it has had large grants for other activities in the last three years, so can’t receive any more funding for the YC. Tell me that the provision of a YC for 20 local kids in a north England village is a service that may influence cross border trade within the EU and I would think you are barking, but the EC thinks so, and this matters.

    Since the Lisbon treaty, the EC has also gathered significantly more powers. It has started to bring forward some criminal laws, with an ECJ case confirming it has the right to do so under the treaties, which is going to get quite interesting.

    I am, in general, pro European, but we have to face the fact that the EU has complete authority over UK law in many areas, and is responsible for more than half of the regulations under which we live. It’s power is growing, and unfortunately, the Lisbon treaty passed the executive power of the EU to the appointed commission, and reduced the powers of the council.

  18. Alec

    “Tell me that the provision of a YC for 20 local kids in a north England village is a service that may influence cross border trade within the EU and I would think you are barking, but the EC thinks so, and this matters. ”

    Isn’t it reasonable that continuing funding for an activity should come from taxation in the home territory, rather than from “pooling and sharing” funds?

    To believe the contrary would be to suggest that the EU should fund everything in all its member states – which, to be fair, it could if it got all the taxes from every citizen of the EU.

    Having the EU decide whether your village’s club was more deserving of funding than the equivalent in Romania would take centralisation to an entirely new level – that even Whitehall couldn’t imagine!

  19. @Oldnat – “Isn’t it reasonable that continuing funding for an activity should come from taxation in the home territory, rather than from “pooling and sharing” funds?”

    You’ve fundamentally misunderstood States Aid. This is EU regulation that prevents states funding activities that could distort trade. The EC polices the system that prevents unfair subsidies etc, but they way in which this is done can be catastrophic for some charities.

    “Having the EU decide whether your village’s club was more deserving of funding than the equivalent in Romania would take centralisation to an entirely new level – that even Whitehall couldn’t imagine!”

    Of course not, but the EC has in effect decided that my local YC is not deserving of UK taxpayer funding. How does that fit into your view of centralisation?

  20. @Candy

    ”And what will our response be if the EU’s Council of Ministers becomes dominated by far-right govts.”

    Unlikely. There are 27 countries in the EU. You would need at least 14 far right wing countries in the EU for even a bare majority to exist. That’s one of the benefit of organisations such as the EU. It is very difficult for extremists to gain any traction as they have by necessity to cooperate with everyone else to get things done.

    Judging by the politicians and print titles leading the Brexit campaign, it’s far more likely that Brexit will lead to a very right wing UK government.

  21. Alec

    Indeed I may have misunderstood. Help me understand.

    Presumably the umbrella group has other activities that (rightly or wrongly) the EU considers States Aid – or did the group applied for funding from the EU specifically under that heading?

    Does the EU specifically forbid UK or local government funding the Youth Club per se – or is it the umbrella organisation that they can’t fund?

    I’m always chary of assertions based on only partial information being given, though the ludicrous effects of bureaucratic rules within any organisation should never be underestimated!

  22. RAF

    There are only four countries (polities) in the UK, and only one of them (the biggest) needs to elect a right wing government, on the basis of 41% of the vote in that polity, for the rest of us to be stuck with it!

    Such a government could do anything it liked – were it not for it having to follow fairly basic civilised rules on employment, human rights etc.

  23. @Alec & OldNat

    Though the info supplied is very partial I’d be almost certain in stating that no EU official has been involved in making this decision at any point.

    It will almost undoubtedly come down to a commissioner (of the service not an EU Commissioner) misinterpreting the rules and then misapplying them with disprotionate affect.

    The rules are designed to prevent the state in any EU member awarding contracts to any private or voluntary sector organisation in a preferential way to a potential bidder from elsewhere in the EEA. Once a certain monetary value on contracts is reached they become subject to processes which – admittedly detailed and potentially costly – provide assurance of fairness.

    However, there are numerous ways in which it is possible to ensure that these procedures are not triggered – for example the way in which the contracts are bundled and let, demonstrating value over the longer term, community, economic or employment benefit. None of these are get arounds, they are specifically designed to take account of the circumstances of the voluntary sector and local government.

    There’s guidance on this from the NCVO and their commentary on the EU referendum actively welcomes the changes and laments how little the UK government has done to ensure that awareness about the rules has been raised and they are being applied properly.

    If, however, your charity is receiving very large numbers of grants (or very large cash amounts) on a non competitive basis from a single funder, without a proper reason for exemption I think it’s quite right that the local authority should be testing that you are the best provider for the whole basket of services. UK law would demand this anyone if the funder is a public sector entity it’s just the procurement process that might be influenced by the EU.

    The whole thing sounds like a half informed jobsworth banning something on the basis of spurious health and safety grounds.

  24. Assiduosity

    Thanks for that.

    Without knowing the details, one can’t be sure – but your explanation seems entirely possible.

    However, we still don’t know the answer to the critical question – “Was the jobsworth a foreigner”?

  25. @Alec

    I suspect it has a lot more to do with the post “Kids Company” landscape. Lacking ability to police these kind of organisations in austerity England, “European Regulations” become a scape goat for simply making it harder for such organisations to get government funding.

  26. I think you need to look at the EU’s impact on the UK in the same way that the Westminster impacts local government. Consider I live under a Labour council. My services are being cut, the old are suffering and there is nothing for the local yoofs. My local council cannot just raise the Council Tax. Oh no, that’s forbidden. Even though there is a crying need for it. If you look at the wider view, from Westminster, the reason is for the good of the country. You may agree or disagree, but someone has taken the bigger picture and said stop!

    With the EU is it similar. Remember we have as much say (indeed much more than many other member states due to our size) in how the rules are defined. So it is not accurate to say the EU is imposing on us, just as it is not the Westminster government imposing on my local area; I went to vote and now I live under the resulting government.

    To say we don’t want the EU telling us what to do is just the same as Labour areas saying they don’t want the Conservative Government telling them what to do.

    When the rules are made, we have an opportunity to shape them, unless, like UKIP, we simply turn our backs. And remember when the rules are being made it is not the case that we are told, and must obey, because of qualified majority voting. There is normally some form of quid pro quo, or bargaining, so while we may have to concede aspects of our fishing industry, for example, we will gain in other areas (IT, or finance, perhaps).

    You have to see it in the round. And in the round we have market access to 500 million people. (Although Nige tells me 500 million people are coming to the end of my street, and I haven’t got enough tea bags for all of them.)

  27. Al Urqa

    “I haven’t got enough tea bags for all of them”

    For heaven’s sake! Lots of them will drink coffee, and others water (though I understand that in England you have water meters, so you may be short of enough cash).

    Fortunately, Westminster (via Whitehall) only deals with local government directly in England – the rest of us have our own governments to screw up local government. :-)

  28. Nope, they are coming to Ingerland — they will bloody well drink tea!

    That’s the end of it.

  29. Al Urqa

    Indian or Chinese?

  30. Al Urqua
    “To say we don’t want the EU telling us what to do is just the same as Labour areas saying they don’t want the Conservative Government telling them what to do.”

    No it isn’t, because the Labour areas have the opportunity to vote out the Conservative government, and even when UKIP for instance ‘wins’ the EU elections in this country it cannot make a farthing’s worth of difference to how the EU operates.

  31. CANDY

    @”You know the SNP had “fascist” roots in the 1930’s, right?”

    Roots can go deep-allegedly.

    https://ahdinnaeken.wordpress.com/2015/05/28/snp-mps-wear-the-little-white-rose-of-fascist-gesture-politics/

  32. Colin/Candy,

    The Democrats in the US fought to maintain slavery, the Wigs, now Liberals, were to the right of the Tories.

    All Ancient History, political parties and groups change over time. At one time almost all UK political Parties opposed votes for women, now effectively none do!

    People only trawl (or maybe better troll) these things up because they can’t come up with better things to say against Parties they don’t like.

    Peter.

  33. “the Wigs.. were to the right of the Tories.”

    Plus ca change. Look at the Donald.
    No, maybe you don’t need to look, use your imagination

  34. Alec: “we have to face the fact that the EU has complete authority over UK law in many areas, and is responsible for more than half of the regulations under which we live. ”

    In discussing the impact of the EU there often seems to be a pattern whereby one side of the argument resorts to hyperbole, which is countered by the other side attempting to prick balloons. The resulting ping-pong perhaps explains why there is general frustration with the quality of the discussion (as well as the quality of my metaphors; but at least ping pong with balloons creates a reasonably vivid mental image).

    I go back to my original point that the mass of regulations needed to achieve a level playing field in the single market does not, I think, constitute what most people think of as “our laws.” Yes, they may define and regulate many aspects of what may be traded, used, polluted etc, but when the actual regulations are examined most people will surely find them pretty unobjectionable. For instance, no doubt many farmers chafed at the temporary ban on neonicotinoid pesticides while their effect on bees and other insects was investigated – a ban opposed by the UK – but I suspect most people would think it fair enough, and understand why it needs to be applied throughout the EU to avoid giving an advantage to farmers in a country nor banning them.

    In short, I don’t think trade regulations – which by necessity of the complexity of modern trade are numerous – are what most people have in mind when they think of “our laws”. If that’s right, it comes down to “the principle of the thing”, which has usually been trumped in Britain by what used to be called our instinctive pragmatism.

  35. PETER CAIRNS

    @”People only trawl (or maybe better troll) these things up because they can’t come up with better things to say against Parties they don’t like.”

    I think you will find that Candy’s post to OLDNAT on the topic of the Far Right & SNP, was in response to OLDNAT’s assertions about “Far Right” Newspapers in England.

    Mote & Beam old chap-Mote & Beam-as OGH would say. :-)

  36. Just picked this up from John Curtice (indirectly)

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/74218/labour-course-worst-council-election-result

    Cleverer people than me will wish to comment, I expect

  37. @ALEC

    Back in pre-history, when I was involved in running the youth club that I had attended as a child, almost all of our funding was raised locally. Most of the staffing was by volunteers and we had little need of funding from national bodies. Unfortunately that model has completely gone. Someone came up with the idea of bidding for funds to employ professional staff and the volunteers drifted away. The club was then put under the control of a council “arms length” body but priorities change and the club was closed many years ago with everything being transferred to a leisure centre a few miles away.

    Recently, a charity of which I am a trustee, received an application from a youth club, based at that leisure centre, to replace the funds that were being withdrawn by the successor to that “arms length” company because (reading between the lines) their funding was being concentrated on saving the loss making Leisure Centre. We unfortunately had to decline as we could not be sure where the money would end up, all the staff being leisure centre employees. I expect those in charge of EU, national or local council funds are in the same sort of situation.

  38. Guy node,

    “Cleverer people than me will wish to comment, I expect”

    Well that leaves an open field for everyone!

    Labour last time were higher in the Polls and like now it was a raft of Councils where Labour was strong which gave them an almost record result. It is all but inevitable that they would have to do exceptionally well to equal let alone better that.

    This is in the Telegraph so stun against Labour but it really comes close to one of Anthony’s awards for bad reporting. Just as a rouge poll where a party goes up is often portrayed in the press as a huge change and the return to the norm as an alarming slump so to this report has been stripped of context to get the desired headline.

    Peter.

  39. Indian or Chinese?
    oldnat April 25th, 2016 at 12:58 am

    Sorry, went to bed. But to answer your direct question — Yorkshire Tea!

  40. No it isn’t, because the Labour areas have the opportunity to vote out the Conservative government, and even when UKIP for instance ‘wins’ the EU elections in this country it cannot make a farthing’s worth of difference to how the EU operates.
    Pete B April 25th, 2016 at 1:19 am

    The point I was trying to make was we have decided it is in our best interest to be in the EU, because of the bigger picture. In your response UKIP is the wrong example, because they don’t want to make any changes. But as a larger member we do have an opportunity to make a change. It’s not a dictatorship (although some seem to think it is).

  41. Welsh poll

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/04/25/the-new-welsh-political-barometer-poll-4/

    Constituency VI

    Labour: 33% (-2)
    Plaid Cymru: 21% (no change)
    Conservatives: 19% (no change)
    UKIP: 15% (-2)
    Liberal Democrats: 8% (+2)
    Others: 3% (no change)

    List VI

    Labour: 29% (-2)
    Plaid Cymru: 22% (+2)
    Conservatives: 19 (-1)
    UKIP: 15% (-1)
    Liberal Democrats: 8% (+3)
    Greens: 4% (no change)
    Others: 4% (+1)

    Scully’s Ratio (as opposed to Uniform) Swing seat projection

    Labour: 29 (27 constituency + 2 list )
    Plaid Cymru: 12 (8 constituency + 4 list )
    Conservatives: 10 (4 constituency + 6 list )
    UKIP: 8 (8 list )
    Liberal Democrats: 1 (1 constituency )

  42. The point I was trying to make was we have decided it is in our best interest to be in the EU, because of the bigger picture. In your response UKIP is the wrong example, because they don’t want to make any changes. But as a larger member we do have an opportunity to make a change. It’s not a dictatorship (although some seem to think it is).

    I think this is the sticking point for many people.

    Who is the ‘we’? The EU has evolved substantially from the organisation it was when the UK joined. The it has become much bigger, with powers in more areas, formed a currency zone and introduced a level of freedom of movement previously unknown.

    The ‘we’ who decided it was in our interests to go with the EU were a group of people you could bunch together as the political and business establishment.

    Such establishments aren’t as fondly thought of these days (thankfully) by the general electorate. People feel that given the direction of the EU seems to be heading for (a larger, more integrated area) they would like a say whether or not they like that.

  43. CMJ
    Thanks for making the point better than I seem able to.

  44. @Peter Cairns (SDP)

    “Cleverer people than me will wish to comment, I expect
    Well that leaves an open field for everyone!”

    Thank you, you are so kind.
    I do prefer my polls rouge, I find the bleu ones quite indigestible.

  45. Welsh Poll:
    Regional vote since last time
    Lab
    Con
    Plaid Cymru
    Lib Dem
    UKIP

  46. Whoops, Did it too fast and accidently posted

    Welsh Poll:
    Regional vote since last time
    Lab -8
    Con -3.5
    Plaid Cymru+4
    Lib Dem No change
    UKIP +10
    Others -2
    Constituency result not comparable as UKIP only stood in the Regional Lists last time.

  47. The ‘we’ who decided it was in our interests to go with the EU were a group of people you could bunch together as the political and business establishment.
    catmanjeff April 25th, 2016 at 12:50 pm

    But that is what our democracy decided. You can also argue, for example, that the same system is now imposing austerity on the poorer segment of society. They could introduce a Land Value Tax, to recycle some of the wealth that has got stuck in properties. But the ‘political and business establishment’ refuses to do this. That is their choice.

    Remember, we didn’t just wake up one day and find we had moved from an economic community (which had freedom of movement from day one) to the EU; we could have vetoed the changes at any time, but we decided it was in our best interest to forego the veto.

    I personally didn’t vote for a government to promote the Single European Act. But our democratic system imposed that on me. In our representational system whomever I put into parliament is then able to do what they think is in the country’s best interest.

    But if we are going to argue over the ‘we’ then I’ll respectfully back out, as I don’t think there is any merit in discussing that; there are too many ways to skin that cat. :-)

  48. “But that is what our democracy decided.”

    ———–

    Though in our version of democracy, a minority view can hold sway…

  49. “Sorry, went to bed. But to answer your direct question — Yorkshire Tea!”

    ———–

    It’s the answer to quite a few questions…

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