The Evening Standard had a new YouGov London poll today, showing a commanding lead for Sadiq Khan in the mayoral race. First round voting intentions are KHAN 48%, GOLDSMITH 32%, WHITTLE 7%, BERRY 6%, PIDGEON 5%. After reallocating the second preferences of eliminated candidates Sadiq Khan wins by twenty points on the second round. Full tabs are here

The huge Labour lead looks startling, but it is actually broadly in line with YouGov’s national polling. Their last couple of GB polls had Labour and the Conservatives very close in their levels of support, which is the equivalent of a CON=>LAB swing of 3.5% since the general election. Last year Labour outpolled the Conservatives by nine percent in the capital, doing much better there than in the rest of Britain. Add on a national swing of 3.5% to Labour’s 2015 lead in London and you’d expect to find them about 16 points ahead, which is exactly where they are.

The 2016 London mayoral election looks like one of voting along ordinary party lines. The first two directly elected mayors of London were very unusual “showbiz” politicians, widely known by just their first names. Ken Livingstone initially ran an an independent and even after rejoining was clearly always semi-detached from and not reliant upon London Labour. Boris was Boris – the paltry link between his electoral success and that of his nominal party underlined by the voting figures at the last mayoral election. Boris was four points ahead of Ken in the first round of the mayoral vote, but Labour were nine points ahead of the Conservatives in the simultaeneous vote for the London Assembly – a gap of 13 points between their performance in the mayoral vote and the assembly vote.

There is no such gap in this mayoral election. If you compare mayoral voting intentions and London assembly voting intentions this time round there is no significant contrast – Sadiq Khan is 16 points head in the mayoral vote, Labour are 16 points ahead in the London Assembly vote.

If we put aside the personality driven politics of the mayoral election, London is an increasingly Labour city. Labour won hefty victories in every other electoral contest in London in the last Parliament – they won the European election by 14 points, the local elections by 13 points, the London assembly by 9 points, the general election by 9 points. If Zac Goldsmith was to be competitive he needed to appeal to non-Conservative voters, and while he is getting some support from Liberal Democrat and UKIP supporters it really isn’t enough. With only a fortnight to go. Sadiq Khan’s position is looking very comfortable.


379 Responses to “YouGov/Standard London poll gives Khan a commanding lead”

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  1. In terms of the latest Scottish poll from Survation I observe that in the constituency vote 1:5 voters in the Highlands and Islands are undecided and I:6 in Glasgow and North East Scotland: and that in the Lothian list vote the Greens are now running third ahead of the Conservatives.

    The Liberal Democrats are only above 15% in the constituency vote in South Scotland and the Highlands and the Islands and only above 6% in the list vote in Lothian, North East Scotland and the Highland and Islands.

    The Greens are running above 8% in all jurisdictions except the Highland and Islands and UKIP above 6% in West Scotland and the Highlands and Islands.

    In London Sian Berry, Green Mayoralty, is running at 10% in Inner London as is the Green Party in the Assembly elections, but only at 5% in outer London.

    Depending on who can pull their vote best I believe there will be a very tight race for the last four assembly seats between the Greens, UKIP and the Liberal Democrats.

    The question for me is where are the majority of votes found for the assembly, in the outer suburbs where they are weakest or in Inner London where they are strongest?

  2. Met a man when door knocking in Dingwall today;

    Voted Yes to Independence but is going to vote UKIP not SNP as he doesn’t think an Independent Scotland should be in the EU.

    Also met someone who thought we were Hypocrits because we wanted Independence and Independence and didn’t like laws coming from Brussels.

    As ever I asked him to name one he didn’t like or indeed just name one…but as ever he couldn’t. He just didn’t like the idea.

    He thought there were too many rules and that other nations flouted them. He wanted something done about that but not to give the EU more powers or resources to tackle it.

    I think most Leave voters just don’t like the idea of sharing sovereignty as it opens the possibility that someone else might tell us what to do. Reinforces what I think should be leaves key theme….Loss of something and fear of Lossing more because people are Loss Averse!

    Peter.

  3. ROBERT NEWARK

    Thanks.

    I agree that changes in the leadership of ther two main parties seem unlikely.

    It is UKIP who really have to decide what they are post Referendum. Apparently the appeal of of Five Star type organisation is the ability to attract “protest” voters across a large spectrum via online resources. The idea being, I suppose that a 45% Leave vote is an awful lot of people .
    But as Paris points out, to the extent that these are older/white working class/less educated etc , social media isn’t their natural habitat.

  4. Assiduosity @ 9:29 am

    Good point ! :-)

  5. Happy St George’s Day to those from the independent states of Romania, Portugal, Georgia, Malta & Gozo, as well as the sub-state nations of Catalunya and England.

  6. Separating London from England?

    Maybe. But I think there’d be some friction around the border. Would the Home Counties of England permit urban development around the edges of London, knowing that eventually the “country” of London would – as in the past – expand and eat up those bits of their counties permanently.

    Also the disparity in wealth between London and the other countries would be even greater than between England and the other countries. Would the First Minister of London be able to tolerate, politically, the transfer of cash that would be necessary from his/her domain to the others?

    Of course wealth disparity is also a problem if you cut England into North and South, or reinvent the heptarchy. The bit with London in is always going to have a lot of the wonga.

    At least London isn’t close to the border between England and one of the other home countries, avoiding the Brussels issue – in which ceding Brussels from Flanders effectively meant that Flanders lost part of her Flemish-speaking homeland to French speaking Wallonia (on account of how French speakers now dominate in Brussels).

    On the “lots of people who can’t speak English” point, I think that’s tilting at slightly the wrong windmill. Other than some older people, especially older women, the vast majority of immigrants to London speak passable English. Indeed the very variety of nationalities within London makes this essential, as English is (ironically perhaps) the lingua franca which people from different countries use to understand each other.

    It would more accurate to say that a lot of people in London don’t speak English rather than that they can’t. If you walk through a very mixed area like Holloway, you’ll hear groups of people speaking every language under the sun, and when they do speak in English it is generally for transactions with people from other backgrounds.

    You might see a group of Turkish men walking down the street, chatting in Turkish. They might go to a grocers and chat to the shopkeeper in Turkish. Buy some Turkish beer and snacks. Pop to an ocakbasi restaurant, where they order Turkish food in Turkish. Later they might head off to a club where they chat in English to the staff on the door, order drinks in English, chat up some girls in English, before getting a table and resuming their conversation in Turkish.

    The same process may well be happening simultaneously, just yards away, with groups of Somalis, Arabs, Poles, Pakistanis, Francophone Africans etc. All of them can speak English. But much of the time they don’t.

    I’m sure it wasn’t so different when the East End was teeming with huguenots speaking French or Eastern European jews speaking Yiddish. I do think the scale is somewhat different though. Huguenots and Jewish migrants together barely topped 300,000. There are more Pakistani born UK residents than all of the Huguenots and Jews put together. I’m sure Irish migration has always been colossal historically. But it still is. There were 1/3million Irish born residents in the UK as of the 2011 census, so it’s not as simple as “where once we had migrants from Eastern Europe and France, now we have them from Asia and Africa”. Immigration from Eastern Europe and France is much higher now than it was in the 18th-19th centuries, and we have massive numbers of immigrants from elsewhere on top of that.

    The insouciant dismissal of concerns about migration in the 21st century on the basis that it has always been thus is simply cloud cuckoo land.

    Whether high levels of immigration are good, bad or neutral is of course debateable.

  7. Peter Cairns
    I agree with you about the draw being the language rather than benefits.

    What was England’s greatest achievement (the Empire) has become the millstone.

    Every silver lining has a black cloud, as they say.

    Colin

    Agree on the social media thing but then no means should be mutually exclusive. Social media is maybe how to get the young energised, conventional means for the oldies. But hey, I’m an oldie (66) and I do the fleecebook, as A Neil calls it.

    TOH
    Virtually everyone I meet moans about the EU but I just know that most will vote to remain. Most people are risk averse, it’s too easy to accept the status quo and just grumble.

  8. UKIP and social media. Judging by the support on all comments pages I read (Yes, I am a masochist) they have excellent online support.

  9. Robert Newark: “Virtually everyone I meet moans about the EU”

    Peter Cairns: “Also met someone who … didn’t like laws coming from Brussels. As ever I asked him to name one he didn’t like or indeed just name one…but as ever he couldn’t. He just didn’t like the idea.”

    It is extraordinary that so many people have accepted the idea that most of our laws come from Brussels without actually being able to think of one.

    The last Queen’s Speech contained proposals for 26 bills, 25 of which were entirely UK-originated. The 26th was the European Union (Finance) Bill, whose purpose the BBC summarised as being: “to give UK approval to the financing aspect of the seven year EU Budget deal agreed in 2013, which saw a real-terms cut in EU spending. It would preserve the UK’s rebate, and prevent new EU-wide taxes to finance EU spending, the government says.”

    There seems to be a desperate search for victimhood. I’m not sure what that says about our national psyche.

  10. “There seems to be a desperate search for victimhood. I’m not sure what that says about our national psyche”

    ——————

    It’s not necessarily conclusive yet, needs further analysis etc. but there’s research to suggest peeps are becoming more narcissistic, and unsurprisingly, the rise of social media is implicated in this.

    And as Syzygy noted recently, playing the victim is a common feature of the narcissistic…

  11. @Somerjohn

    I think that we live in a world people are increasingly aware that power over their lives seems to reside far about them, and beyond any influence they can affect.

    The EU makes an easy target for this frustration.

  12. “But as Paris points out, to the extent that these are older/white working class/less ” etc , social media isn’t their natural habitat.”

    ——————

    Needn’t matter if peeps they listen to, and are influenced by, opinion formers, younger family members etc., do pay attention to social media…

  13. @Catman

    But then gradually peeps get on with it and bypass the power structures…

  14. @Carfrew

    How do we mere citizens bypass the EU, IMF, and possibly TTIP?

  15. @Lurkingherkin

    “Or Nano, Gedit or Notepad++
    I sometimes use vi, but emacs is just….weird, couldn’t get on with it.”

    ———-

    Oh yeah, I’m not saying Emacs and VI are the only game in town. Notepad++ is one of the first things I install on a Windows machine.

    But there’s summat visceral about the rivalry between them. Emacs is very extendable, lots of modules to let you do this and that. For me, quite handy for Authoring and stuff. VI and Vim are powerful in terms of letting you access the system itself rather more.

    But like I said earlier, horses for courses etc….

  16. @catman

    Well that’s a challenge, but doesn’t mean there isn’t a way. And because it’s Saturday evening and I’d like you to be able not to fret about it even slightly, I shall play a trump card early and point out that you bypassed the iniquities of the system by home-schooling…

  17. @Carfrew

    I do play around with Raspberry Pis, and Vim is great when editing configuration files etc when running a headless system (for example building a TOR router or file server. For an educational experience with my son, I want to build a system that connects a battery powered PI to a web cam, fitted in an external insect house, and wirelessly connect the image to the computers in the house.

    I got a Linux command line book for Christmas, and it’s good stuff. Dipping into the bare bones of how computers has been interesting.

  18. Much as I’d love to join in the geek chat (and I mean that seriously) I have spent the day campaigning in London so wanted to check in.

    Spent five hours out in South Woodford (morning) and Wanstead (afternoon) before ending the evening with a well deserved curry.

    Morning shift was very unenthusiastic in a middle class area – hardly any campaign presence, and mostly don’t knows or won’t says. Afternoon was a lot more active with some good doorstep chat. Mostly Labour, but the odd Tory and the appearance of an odd electoral creature – the Green casting their second preference for Goldsmith.

    Turnout will not be immense but Khan will probably win, going off the polls and personal experience. Will be campaigning in Ealing tomorrow, for a change of scene, so will report in again.

    For the record, I can’t stand London, having not been here for four years. Claustrophic, noisy, dirty and dangerous. Can’t comprehend why anyone would voluntarily live here. Sheffield’s a city of half a million, but still feels like home – and I can walk to the countryside in half an hour if it gets too much!

  19. @Mr Nameless

    For the record, I can’t stand London, having not been here for four years. Claustrophic, noisy, dirty and dangerous.

    To think people pay an absolute fortune for the pleasure too!

  20. @ Catman

    ‘For an educational experience with my son, I want to build a system that connects a battery powered PI to a web cam, fitted in an external insect house, and wirelessly connect the image to the computers in the house.’

    That sounds brilliant! I bet lots of people would want one… beekeepers being the obvious ones but also all those amateur entomologists.

  21. Lord Ashcroft doing focus groups of undecideds over the next 9 weeks.

    Bury, Rossendale and Norwich

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/04/referendum-focus-groups-d-62/

    “I was at a dinner party, and we were all friends, and we got onto Europe and it turned into a huge row. Two people ended up going home!” Crikey. Which ones? “Oh, the stayers left and the leavers stayed.”

  22. @Syzygy

    You could build it all for under £50 from scratch too.

    Raspberry PIs are amazing things. They are cheap, the software is free, and the most of the code needed is available online.

    I want a PI Zero (it’s the size of a thick credit card and has similar processing power to a 10 yr old laptop). It costs about £5.

    They released 20,000 late last year and sold out in 24 hours. They were snapped up by hobbyists who use them for projects like time-lapse photography, building burglar alarms, robots, servers, media players…….

    A great intro in how to home build and programme your own computers.

  23. @Mr Nameless
    For the record, I can’t stand London, having not been here for four years. Claustrophic, noisy, dirty and dangerous.”

    Ah…Central London.

  24. @OldNat

    “I was at a dinner party, and we were all friends, and we got onto Europe and it turned into a huge row. Two people ended up going home!” Crikey. Which ones? “Oh, the stayers left and the leavers stayed.”

    Lol! Love Lord A’s focus groups.

  25. I found the most expensive part of a Raspberry Pi installation to be the connectors and cables rather than the Pi itself ;-)

    I’d love to make one of these for fun if I ever get the time:

    http://makezine.com/projects/build-a-compact-4-node-raspberry-pi-cluster/

    Here is a more ambitious project:

    https://resin.io/blog/what-would-you-do-with-a-120-raspberry-pi-cluster/

    A bit of a digression from polling, apologies AW.

  26. LOL Very funny

  27. New poll in Herald tomorrow has “three quarters of Scots” voting to remain in EU. No further details yet.

  28. @Carfrew – “It’s not necessarily conclusive yet, needs further analysis etc. but there’s research to suggest peeps are becoming more narcissistic, and unsurprisingly, the rise of social media is implicated in this.”

    There is some pretty conclusive research in the US that suggests people are becoming more narcissistic, but I’m not so sure that social media is the cause – possibly more an outlet, although I’m guessing on that.

    What is fascinating is that there is some very clear evidence that US students are gradually becoming more confident in their abilities, while the evidence suggests they are actually getting less capable. In other words, self confidence is rising while ability declines.

    Rather than social media causing this, research is tending to suggest that parents and schools that preach ‘self esteem’ and promote high confidence as a desired outcome are more to blame. Excess praise has been shown to be bad for developing children, and the Millennials seem to have been the generation that grew up within a system more geared to tell them how great they were, rather than actually make them great, and we are seeing the results.

    Worryingly, there is some evidence to suggest that suicides and violent acts (eg multiple shootings) can be caused by the mental disconnection of young people when faced with the reality that they are not as good as they thought they were, which is the definition of narcissism.

    My general rule of thumb is that if I go into a room and there is someone who sounds like they know what they are talking about, they probably don’t, and I prefer to wait to hear what the quiet people have to say. Narcissism is a terrible affliction on society, and sadly, it seems it is being self inflicted on future generations.

  29. @MrNameless

    Woodford and Wanstead are areas I am very familiar with. If you found them noisy, dirty and claustrophobic then London’s definitely not the place for you! They are quiet, bucolic suburbs compared to most of the rest of the city.

  30. Alec

    “it seems it is being self inflicted on future generations.”

    Ooh! That is clever – took me ages to see it. :-)

  31. @Carfrew
    “Did they cause peeps dilemmas? Cos they seemed targeted at different things, Fortran for handling scientific data, numerical analysis and stuff, COBOL more of a business thing, handling data for reports etc.?”

    That was the conventional view, but I wrote all sorts of stuff in FORTRAN including commercial applications, because it wasn’t so restrictive as COBOL (e.g. using negative array references to directly access routines in the OS, or not having to explicitly declare every variable).

    “Somerjohn
    The last Queen’s Speech contained proposals for 26 bills, 25 of which were entirely UK-originated. ”

    My understanding is that much EU law goes through Statutory Instruments, and misses out our parliament altogether. However I would not cliam to be an expert so am open to correction.

  32. RAF, hardly went! Was in Redbridge pretty much the entire day. Sneaking out of the hotel early this morning to get some sightseeing done before the rest convene for the afternoon session. That FDR statue in Grosvenor Square needs admiring again.

  33. ALEC

    @”My general rule of thumb is that if I go into a room and there is someone who sounds like they know what they are talking about, they probably don’t, and I prefer to wait to hear what the quiet people have to say. ”

    If this is a room full of younger people , they won’t be talking. They will be stabbing & stroking their smart phones.

    If & when they do use their vocal organs, the conversation will be brief & uninformative, their attention span being time & word limited.

    In my experience -close observation over a year of one post graduate student-social media is destroying their ability to focus & concentrate. The smart phone is becoming the primary sensory organ.

    Did you read the report about university academics complaining that students can no longer finish reading “whole books” ?

  34. Somerjohn: “The last Queen’s Speech contained proposals for 26 bills, 25 of which were entirely UK-originated. The 26th was the European Union (Finance) Bill, whose purpose the BBC summarised as being: “to give UK approval to the financing aspect of the seven year EU Budget deal agreed in 2013, which saw a real-terms cut in EU spending. It would preserve the UK’s rebate, and prevent new EU-wide taxes to finance EU spending, the government says.””

    It is misleading to look at Acts of Parliament:

    – European laws that need British legislation are implemented by way of regulations. You should spend some time surrounded by the books of statutory instruments.

    – An awful lot of European legislation does not require UK legislation. It has, unlike any international obligation, direct effect.

    – There is also the Commission’s executive power. For example, the UK government needed its permission for Hinkley Point C (“state aid” issues), and HS2 (“environmental issues”, even though its wholly on our environment). You might well think that the Commission would have done us a favour by stopping us buying massive white elephants, but if we are talking constitutional principle, we can hardly pretend to be independent if the government requires Brussels permission for massive strategic projects.

    It could be better said that (a) the power needs to be in Brussels, and (b) as such ought to be in the hands of a responsible European government. I would not agree, but it is a perfectly rational viewpoint, and actually the logical extension of integration. But we should not pretend that European power is not of massive importance to how we are governed.

  35. @Oldnat “New poll in Herald tomorrow has “three quarters of Scots” voting to remain in EU. No further details yet.”

    If Scotland voting Remain but the UK voting Leave is enough to justify Indyref2, then what would Scottish voters make of a balanced threat whereby if England votes leave but the UK votes remain that if indyref2 then happens anyway that the rUK could reasonably block an independent Scotland’s entry to the EU forever?

  36. joseph1832

    You are letting the facts get in the way of the propaganda. Tut,tut.

  37. PeteB: “My understanding is that much EU law goes through Statutory Instruments, and misses out our parliament altogether. However I would not cliam to be an expert so am open to correction.”

    I agree, but my point was that these statutory instruments are not what most people understand by ‘laws’, which is more the stuff covered by the Queen’s speech.

    The statutory instrument stuff is the nitty-gritty implementation of agreed measures for common standards. For instance, to have fair and free trade in eggs, you need common welfare standards for hens. If the UK has higher animal welfare standards and feed quality regulations than, say, Poland, then Polish eggs will be much cheaper to produce and will flood the UK market, driving our producers out of business.

    So you need regulations on cage size, ventilation, temperature, definitions of free range/barn/battery, what’s allowed in the food and so on and so on in mind-numbing detail.

    That’s why there are so many statutory instruments, implementing this kind of stuff. Parliament can debate it if it wants, but on the whole it chooses to let it go through on the nod. But is that what brexiters get so aerated about? I suspect most are misled into thinking it’s the real legislation – the Queen’s Speech stuff – that is being ‘dictated from Brussels’.

  38. Joseph1832: “we should not pretend that European power is not of massive importance to how we are governed.”

    I take your point, but I’m not convinced that that European power is indeed “massive.”

    If you have a single market, you have to have uniform standards on things like state aid. Those standards need to be agreed democratically, and then implemented impartially by some authority. If implementation is delegated to national governments, then of course they are going to bend the rules in favour of their own industries.

    The question is: is the supranational enforcement of rules we’ve agreed to, an unbearable infringement of our sovereignty?

    That’s really the nub of the in/out debate. But I’m not at all confident many people understand that. Instead, they think it’s about faceless bureaucrats in Brussels arbitrarily deciding that we must all eat straight bananas.

  39. @ Alec

    Christopher Lasch argued in the 1970s that the American society was narcissistic. His arguments about the role of the institutions in this was new back then. So the roots must be deeper than just the self-esteem movement (as that started big only in the 1980s).

    Accidentally, there is the California study on self esteem – the biggest investigation of the evidence (I.e. No evidence for any connection between self-esteem and social and individual ills – yet it’s largely ignored.

  40. @Somerjohn
    “The question is: is the supranational enforcement of rules we’ve agreed to, an unbearable infringement of our sovereignty?”

    Maybe not, but the clincher for me was when the EU imposed their own Prime Minister on Italy and Greece when they elected people the EU didn’t approve of. I’m no great fan of ol’ Corby, but I’d go to the barricades to defend our right to elect our own idiot instead of having one imposed by Brussels.

  41. Pete B

    Well, your ‘maybe not, but…’ represents a changing of memes from the ‘all our laws are made in Brussels’ one to the ‘they get rid of democratically elected elders who don’t suit them’ one.

    I think this has quite recently been more ably debunked here than I’m able to do. But assuming the two leaders you’re referring to are Berlusconi and Tsipras, a quick look at Wikipedia shows that Berlusconi resigned in 2011 amid all the corruption cases he was involved in. ” Umberto Bossi, leader of the Northern League, a partner in Berlusconi’s right-wing coalition, was quoted as informing reporters outside parliament, “We asked the prime minister to step aside.” His replacement, Monti was, was not imposed by Brussels.
    As for Tsipras, last time I looked he was still in office.

  42. Brussels imposing a Premier!

    Premier; I want a tanker loaded with EU money!
    Brussels; Okay but you will need to make these changes in return!
    Premier; No deal, no changes, just give me the money!
    Brussels; No deal, No changes means No money!
    Premier; in that case I’ll resign!
    Brussels; Fair Enough it’s your choice!
    Premier ; I resign!!!!
    New Premier; I want a tanker loaded with EU money!
    Brussels; Okay but you will need to make these changes in return!
    New Premier; Okay it’s a deal!
    Brussels; Finally we have a deal!

    Peter.

  43. So I see that according to the latest Welsh You Gov poll (April 11th to 16th) that the Greens are running ahead of the Lib Dems in North Wales at 5% and tied with them at 5% in Cardiff and South Wales Central.

    Is there any possibility that the Greens can win a list seat or will the emergence of UKIP at 15% to 21% in the list assembly vote preclude both the Lib Dems and Greens from getting any list seats?

  44. Somerjohn
    I never said all our laws are made in Brussels.

    “On 16 November 2011, Monti was sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy, after unveiling a technocratic cabinet composed entirely of unelected professionals” – Wikipedia

    I think Pikrammenos was the unelected Greek chappie I was thinking of but i could be wrong because there’s been so many of them.

    Peter C
    You missed a step after “Premier ; I resign!!!!”, which is “Brussels leans on country’s President to appoint unelected technocrat.”

  45. Thomas

    “If Scotland voting Remain but the UK voting Leave is enough to justify Indyref2”

    It was an odd poll! Conducted only through a mobile app, it also found 71% in England voting Remain – so best ignored I think. :-)

    Few (and certainly not the SNP) have argued that being taken out of the EU on English votes is enough, on its own, to justify indyref2.

    The SNP position is –

    “We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.”

    http://www.snp.org/manifesto (p23)

  46. Pete B,

    If by leans on you mean; “You can choose anybody you like, but our support is conditional on reforms, so if you don’t choose a reformer don’t expect support”

    I don’t see the problem or the blame on Brussels.
    It’s acting as it should with EU taxpayers money, acting like a Bank!

    If I put money in a bank I want it to be safe and if possible to get a return. That means it doesn’t just hand money over to anyone who asks.

    If a company in trouble asks for a loan the bank wants to know what it is going to do with it and if it will get it back. That usually involves cutback and restructuring as well as investment, indeed often as a condition of investment.

    If the company says, “No we don’t want to change we just want the money!” It is unlikely to get it.

    As to the “Democracy” arguement about these leaders having been chosen by the people, that’s fine but it still doesn’t give them a right to someone else’s money.

    It’s a bit like the Bank turning down the loan to the Company that won’t restructure and the manager saying “But my wife says you have too!”

    Peter.

  47. Regarding Obama’s belief that a UK outside of the EU would take 10 years to negotiate a trade deal – this very much depends on whether future US presidents find themselves needing the UK.

    Dubya banned Sinn Fein from fund-raising in the US in the lead up to the Iraq war – that was Blair’s price for support. Previous prime ministers such as Thatcher and Major had begged for a ban but didn’t get one and Blair had failed to persuade Clinton, even though Clinton was sympathetic to the NI peace process. (You could argue that Dubya’s ban is the reason Sinn Fein went back to the negotiating table after they had flounced off in 2002.)

    Obama himself backed down over a Syria intervention when Parliament voted not to participate – the Americans don’t like doing these things without us.

    So – in the event of Brexit, Britain’s chances of a trade deal depend on how hawkish a future American President is. If they are isolationist, there wont be any pressure to do a deal. If they are hawkish and want help, the quid pro quo would be a trade deal.

  48. Candy,

    “Obama himself backed down over a Syria intervention when Parliament voted not to participate – the Americans don’t like doing these”

    Obama backed down over Syria because Assad called his bluff and used Chemical Weapons and Obama had hoped the threat of force would be enough. He also couldn’t be sure he could get Congress to back him.

    As ever the UK was incidental!

    I very much doubt it would take more than a year or so to do a deal with the US over trade and we might well even get it before TTIP is concluded!

    Although the that’s only because a Tory Government and the City wouldn’t care about getting the same protections for public services as the EU and as long as it made them lots of money they wouldn’t care if the terms meant the US shafting the UK!

    Peter.

  49. Panelbase / Times & Heart FM Scottish poll on EU

    Support for the EU remains higher in Scotland than in England, with 63% supporting continued UK membership of the EU and 37% supporting withdrawal.

    Almost twice as many (38%) people believing withdrawal would weaken the economy than those who believe it would be stronger (20%).

    A quarter say Brexit would strengthen UK democracy but almost as many (23%) say it would be weaker.

    About one in five (21%) believe Scotland would be at less risk of terrorism after Brexit, while 14% think it would be more at risk.

    Nearly a third (32%) believe immigration would go down if Britain leaves the EU, and only 10% expect it to go up.

    Almost two thirds of Scottish voters (63%) believe that the UK is likely to vote to remain in the EU while just 22% expect Brexit and 15% are unsure.

  50. OldNat,

    On those figures, given higher turnout in Scotland, in UK terms I’d estimate close to 3.3% Leave to 5.7% Remain about a 2.5% difference.

    So if the final UK vote is; Remain 52% Leave 48%, then chances are Scots will have kept the UK in!

    Boris will be delighted!!!

    Peter.

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