MORI have published their monthly political monitor – full details are here. The topline voting intention figures are CON 38%(+2), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 6%(-4), UKIP 11%(nc), GRN 3%(nc). The Conservatives retain a narrow lead, but not significantly different from last month.

Referendum voting intention stands at REMAIN 49%(nc), LEAVE 39%(-2), DK 12%(+2). MORI also asked an unprompted question on what the most important issues were in deciding how people would vote in the EU referendum. Overall the impact on the economy (32%) and immigration (27%) came top, but there was a sharp contrast between remain and leave voters. Among those who want to remain 40% named the economy, followed by jobs (15%), trade (14%) and immigration (14%). Among those who want to leave 47% named immigration, followed by making our own laws (25%), the economy (21%) and the impact of immigration on the welfare state (20%).


64 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 38, LAB 35, LD 6, UKIP 11, GRN 3”

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  1. I understand this is another poll where the lead changed after weighing….originally Labour 37, Conservative 35.

  2. Hello all from Bournemouth East on a nice evening by the sea.
    Swing Back may help the Tories and Remain in the various contests.

    Lib Dem figures seem high, to me, anyway.

  3. ChrisLane 1945

    Good evening to you from a beautiful Ayrshire evening – glorious twilight as the sun moves behind the hills. The quality of light might inspire me to paint – but I can’t be bothered to move the furniture.

  4. Rather hard to imagine what ‘swingback’ would entail in the EU referendum, as the last one was 40 years ago. Also, as I’ve highlighted before, the EUref polls have seen a remarkable lack of (overall) movement for the past 6 months.

    There’s some expectation of a movement towards retaining ‘the status quo’, at least in the final stages, but we’re still probably 6-7 weeks from that point.

  5. The EU referendum result is not really in doubt; any movement towards Leave and there will be a higher turnout from those who want to remain.

    It also doesn’t look like there will as comparably newsworthy a focus on migration to Europe this year, something that might have pushed some voters in the other direction.

    As for the general parties figures – it does rather look like the core Conservative vote (& a bit more) has not been swayed by the Tax issues of recent weeks. Labour really need to find an issue that doesn’t just play well with their supporters, but will have some kind of traction with Conservative voters as well.

  6. Nick

    “I understand this is another poll where the lead changed after weighing….originally Labour 37, Conservative 35.”

    It’s always important to weigh votes very carefully.
    :-)

  7. Which is why we have a margin of error. Representative weighting is essential in random sampling, you can’t guarantee that the sample will represent the views of people in general. However, it’s easy to overweight or underweight figures.

  8. Not a good poll for Labour.

    With the poorly received budget, Panama Papers and internal Conservative ‘discussion’ over the EU it looked momentarily as if they might be making headway.

    This seems to confirm the ICM findings that things are as they were – marginal Tory lead.

    On Europe that remain lead is looking strong at the moment.

    The below the headline responses clearly confirm the view that the economy is what matters most to ‘remains’ and DKs – the people ‘leave’ need to persuade to switch / decide.

    It seems from the headline figure that they are failing to persuade this core constituency so a more coherent / appealing economic argument from leave would appear to be necessary.

  9. @ Neil A (& Colin)

    Carried over from the last thread:

    “Do the WTO rules allow countries to exempt service industries from access by specific individual countries, or do they have to be exempted completely.”

    Colin highlights section 7(a) from GATS at

    https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/serv_e/gatsqa_e.htm

    which seems to imply that services are handled in the same way as goods and that most favoured nation status and other free trade guarantees would therefore apply to services as they do for goods. This would be very useful if it were true.

    Unfortunately it is not the case. Read the second sentence of the first paragraph carefully:

    “This amounts to a prohibition, in principle, of preferential arrangements among groups of Members in individual sectors or of reciprocity provisions…”

    The ‘in principle’ is crucial here. Unlike GATT, GATS has no formal system of adjudication and redress worthy of the name and no corresponding international jurisprudence. So countries (or groups of countries) are actually free to enter into ‘preferential arrangements’ and ‘reciprocity provisions’ with whom and in whichever service sector they wish.

    Then consider the following section 7(b), entitled ‘Market Access’ (strangely omitted by Colin).

    It states:

    “Market access is a negotiated commitment in specified sectors. It may be made subject to various types of limitations that are enumerated in Article XVI(2). For example, limitations may be imposed on the number of services suppliers, service operations or employees in the sector; the value of transactions; the legal form of the service supplier; or the participation of foreign capital.”

    Given the general nature of these exclusions, it’s easy for one country – or group of countries to specify sectors and make market access conditional on a country by country basis, subject to negotiation.

    Then bear in mind that – as a matter of principle – countries within an economic or customs union are allowed to treat one and other preferentially quite legally (and apart from the general free trade rules) within both the GATT and GATS frameworks.

    The net effect of all this is:

    (1) The UK would need to negotiate access to the EU services market in just the same way as all nations outside the union currently do after Brexit (it’s not being excluded it’s gaining access).

    (2) There is no legally enforceable duty under WTO rules on the EU to offer a post Brexit UK the same terms for access (or access at all) that it offers to the USA, Japan, Russia etc

    (3) The EU could offer preferential terms to the USA and Russia than those it offers the UK

    (4) The EU could offer highly preferential terms to the EU registered and located subsidiaries of US, Russian, Japanese etc service companies who would like to operate in the single market.

    If you doubt any of the above for a moment, ask yourself this simple question:

    ‘Why would the EU and USA go to all the bother of negotiating TTIP to include free trade provisions on services if that free trade was already guaranteed by existing WTO rules?’

    As and add on:

    ‘Why would they negotiate TTIP exclusively between the USA and EU if such bilateral agreements had to be extended to all members under WTO rules?”

    You have your answer. Europe can lock our financial services sector out (or more precisely refuse it access) and trade with whomsoever it likes after Brexit and there’s nothing the UK could do.

  10. @ASSIDUOSITY

    You have your answer. Europe can lock our financial services sector out (or more precisely refuse it access) and trade with whomsoever it likes after Brexit and there’s nothing the UK could do.
    but still sell us BMW’s under WTO. Not sure about cheese.

  11. Assiduosity

    A good bit of research on GATS etc. Thanks.

    Given the priority that successive UK Governments have given to financial services as the main (or at least very significant) driver of the UK economy [1] one would expect the Treasury to have that argument prepared – and ready to fire at Leave.

    [1] Whether basing an economy on a single volatile resource (as opposed to treating it as a temporary windfall) was wise is another matter. But the UK is where the UK is.

  12. Good evening all from a fine night in Hampshire.

    “,LDEM 6%(-4)”

    It’s not good.

  13. OLDNAT
    ChrisLane 1945
    “Good evening to you from a beautiful Ayrshire evening – glorious twilight as the sun moves behind the hills. The quality of light might inspire me to paint – but I can’t be bothered to move the furniture”
    _______

    Yeah I think we get the picture lol :-)

  14. Thank you Assid for this diligence.

    I can see how it’s goes now post Brexit.

    We ask for “free trade”. They go “for sure” (Dutch accent) you mean in goods right? No problem.

    Trouble is we are not so great at that. hence our big trade deficit which is either a huge burden or a massive negotiating advantage. Not sure which yet.

    We go back and say. No we mean services too. Finance. Accounting consultancy all that stuff we do a lot of!

    They say: we need to analyse that further. Let’s wait and see. In the meantime maybe KPMG can just move all those people to Düsseldorf. Services are just people after all and you guys are not so keen on free movement so maybe you are better off without that sort of business.

    Don’t worry though. We will still keep import all the Peppa pig DVDs. You Brits are so funny…

  15. Well a year after a general election
    After an unpopular budget
    And allegations of tax irregulaties not to mention a party pulling it’s self apart
    If I was Cameron I would feel pleased as punch at this poll

  16. @OldNat

    “Given the priority that successive UK Governments have given to financial services as the main (or at least very significant) driver of the UK economy [1] one would expect the Treasury to have that argument prepared – and ready to fire at Leave.”

    Oh, it’s all primed and ready to go, except it’s that rather unusual branch of Government The Corporation of London that has done all the legwork.

    Its PR wing TheCityUK has been working overtime on Brexit consequences and mapped them quite carefully. This very temperate and understated document is actually rather scary for anyone whose job depends on financial services.

    https://www.thecityuk.com/assets/2016/Reports-PDF/A-practitioners-guide-to-Brexit.pdf

    Given that Gove yesterday ruled out the UK seeking membership of the Single Market it’s worth noting that this would put us in a situation more like Switzerland than Norway. Or perhaps in even more uncharted FTA territory. Page 36 is very illuminating on this point:

    ” It is worth
    noting that Switzerland currently does not have access to the Single Market
    in Financial Services despite the importance of financial services to the Swiss
    economy. Instead, Swiss firms have chosen to establish subsidiaries within the EU,
    and especially in the UK, in order to conduct business which needs access to the
    Single Market.”

    It begs the question would UK, Swiss, US, Japanese, Russian and other firms leave the UK to locate in and secure access to the EU market?

    So why haven’t remain used this yet? I suspect it’s a question of timing, no point firing all your salvoes at once, plus bankers weren’t de rigeur at the height of Panama Papers.

  17. Dieselhead

    The Europeans are going to take ALL the Peppa Pig DVDs?

    My grandkids would be distraught – but it’s the argument most likely to make me vote Leave. :-)

  18. @Dieselhead

    “They say: we need to analyse that further. Let’s wait and see. In the meantime maybe KPMG can just move all those people to Düsseldorf. Services are just people after all and you guys are not so keen on free movement so maybe you are better off without that sort of business.
    Don’t worry though. We will still keep import all the Peppa pig DVDs. You Brits are so funny…”

    Hehehe.

    Got it in one. Except I suspect the accent may be French and they have a lovely financial district to the west of Paris planned, just waiting for the corporate clients to move in so it can be completed. ;-)

  19. @OldNat

    PeppaPig – Vote Leave’s secret weapon!

  20. Assiduosity

    Agreed – timing is everything in a campaign.

    Once again, those who thought that the UK Government had experienced a premature ejaculation, with the recent Treasury Report, failed to realise the ability of the elite to come again and again. :-)

  21. Perhaps we should be happy that the bankers go to France, as their job seems to primarily be to destroy economies (or so I’ve heard)?

  22. @Neil A

    Well, there is that argument.

    However, the financial and professional services sector is, of course, much bigger than bankers.

    Wave goodbye to the attendant accountants, consultants, lawyers, insurers, shipping brokers, commodity dealers, actuaries, HR people, architects (who design their officers), builders (who construct and maintain them) and those who work in retail, hospitality, journalism etc etc. who provide them with services in turn.

    Every industry has its supply chain and its multiplier effect.

    Whilst weaning the UK of over reliance on financial and professional services might be a good thing a short sharp shock might not be a happy – or politically popular – experiment.

  23. Here is the updated EWMA including tonight’s poll:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDclNmQWR5UUk2dFk/view?usp=sharing

    The Conservatives are on the mend. Labour have stopped getting higher, but look a slight bit better than they were, putting on about 2% since February.

  24. CMJ
    Excellent graph. Thanks for keeping us up to date with this.

  25. @Pete B

    No problem.

    :-)

  26. Alun
    From previous thread.
    Unless you can support with polling evidence, your assertion that UKIP voters are racist and that there are no racists in the SNP, is just your opinion and it is one I disagree with. The fact that you have knocked on a few doors and only found one (racist) is neither here nor there. As I said earlier in that thread, the nasty side of the SNP already showed itself during the Indy campaign, so their supporters do already have form.

    I am sure each party has support from both ‘nice’ and ‘nasty’ people. That’s the nature of nationalist parties.

  27. “Wave goodbye to the attendant accountants, consultants, lawyers, insurers, shipping brokers, commodity dealers, actuaries, HR people…”

    ————

    You say that like it’s a bad thing…

  28. Panther and All.
    Good Morning from a warm Bournemouth East.
    In terms of party intentions the voters are influenced primarily by the perceptions of the leadership of the Parties in terms of competence and of management of the economy.

  29. Panther

    “Well a year after a general election
    After an unpopular budget
    And allegations of tax irregulaties not to mention a party pulling it’s self apart
    If I was Cameron I would feel pleased as punch at this poll.

    I agree with your comments about Cameron but would add a couple of points. Firstly on the budget, which I agree has been labelled as unpopular, and has certainly had a negative effect on Osborne’s ratings. Actually there were many good things in the budget IMO and many of the middle class who gain from tax and savings changes were actually pleased with it, so not all bad IMO.

    Secondly allegations of tax irregularities, which actually (as I said at the time) turned out to be untrue and very much a non story as far as Cameron and Osborne were concerned.

    I note above that the latest poll shows another Tory lead although not as high as ICM. I think if there were an election tomorrow the Tories would win again.

  30. NEILA

    @”Perhaps we should be happy that the bankers go to France, as their job seems to primarily be to destroy economies (or so I’ve heard)?”

    :-)

    We shouldn’t think of the “Services” export sector as “Banking” though.

    The largest sub-sector is Professional, Scientific & Technical Activities”, ( around 27% of total) followed by “Information & Communications” -“Financial & Insurance ” ( note Insurance) being third.

  31. ROBERT NEWARK

    I agree with you, there were some of the SNP who clearly showed elements of being racist during the referendum.

  32. “In terms of party intentions the voters are influenced primarily by the perceptions of the leadership of the Parties in terms of competence and of management of the economy.”

    —————–

    And bacon sandwiches…

  33. Good morning all from a sunny (with a few clouds) rural Hampshire.

    I see some peeps are having a dig at some alleged racism within the SNP. Personally speaking having previously lived in Scotland for 12 years I can’t say that I witnessed any of it.

    However, just like supporters of every other major party in the UK there are bound to be racist nut cases who support the SNP and some may even take to social media to vent their slavering’s.

    What I find astonishing is that some lone weirdo who may have gone over the top on social media is picked up by the anti SNP media and then turned into an article labelling the entire party as racist .

    I mean never mind the PM being branded a racist ..

    “David Cameron was branded “racist” in shouts from Labour MPs after he launched an attack on the party’s London mayoral candidate at Prime Minister’s Questions”

    We have Tommy fae Govan aged 16 calling the Tories toffee nose cu#ts on his twitter account and even though he hasn’t said he support the SNP he supports independence so he must be SNP bad person and SNP should be punished.

    That’s the crux of it.

  34. Hey guys,

    I know I haven’t been here that much of late. I did want to make an observation about last night’s NY Primary.

    Last night was the biggest victory that Trump has won thus far. He smashed the competition all over New York and won nearly all the Delegates and he won every single county save for Manhattan. But curiously enough (and part of me finds this hysterical), he lost only one Congressional District, NY-12 (closest equivalent to Cities of London and Westminster), which happens to be his own. They say your neighbors know you best right…..

    I think he got over 50% in every other Congressional District except for NY-10 (Jerrold Nadler’s) and NY-13 (Charlie Rangel’s). I found the precinct breakdowns for Rangel’s district interesting. There were precincts where there was literally one vote. GOP system is honestly bizarre. They give all Congressional Districts equal weight and make it winner take all if the winner receives over 50%. But that means

    Hillary’s win was great. Though I was disappointed to see her lose so much of the vote in upstate New York (places where she got a lot of previously Republican voters to switch over to her). Places she’d cruised in back in 08′ over Obama. It shows how much Bernie has captured the white working class vote within the Democratic Party.

  35. Good to hear from you SoCal.

    Is it normal for US commentators to refer to the “white working class”? Perhaps you’ve gone (UK) native from spending too much time on this site!

    I thought American blue-collar workers were referred to as “middle class” (like pretty much everyone else).

    It shines an interesting light on the fact that the US has a large, poorly paid semi-skilled and unskilled labour market the same as everyone else, but that it perhaps isn’t as politically prominent as it is elsewhere?

  36. SOCALLIBERAL

    Welcome back good to see you posting again..

    Pleasantries over….Clinton is a daft bint. That yin will cause World war 3 with her Hawkish anti Russian rhetoric. For World peace and stability I hope you lot vote Trump .He may have a cavalier approach to politics but make good viewing and addresses real concern that other candidates would shy away from.

    Cmon the Trump.

  37. @Syzygy

    Re: constitutional provisions etc.

    I confess I’m not sufficiently up to speed on the mechanics of the EU to have much to offer on the matter; I’m currently hoovering up what I can from the better-informed on here.

    However, given the size of the EU, we wouldn’t normally have the clout to vote someone out anyway without joining some coalition that agreed with us on the matter. One could argue that the left, or indeed others, should at least be pressing for more of a say from the elected MEPs. More democracy is usually a fundamentally useful thing.

    I don’t think this is always a priority of the left. For instance, they’re happy with FPTP thinking it suits them, but actually what happens is it means that if their vote is split, they’re out of power. And it encourages the likes of the media to try and encourage a split which as we’ve seen, they are quite handy at helping along…

  38. SOCIALIBERAL,

    “Hillary’s win was great. Though I was disappointed to see her lose so much of the vote in upstate New York (places where she got a lot of previously Republican voters to switch over to her)”

    Can people in NY choose which Party to vote for as in some Primaries?
    If so it might be unlike this time they were motivated more to vote in the Republican one than the Democrats.

    Equally Hillary’s previous good showing with NY republicans might have been less about her and unfortunately about not wanting a Hawian/Kenyian President!

    Peter.

  39. I know this is a ‘strictly’ non-partisan site, however, it is difficult not to gloat when you see the Limp Dims on 6%. How much worse can it get for them? Crushed by the Tories in rural areas, by Labour in urban, and by the SNP in Scotland.

    Could they actually cease to exist in the next few years?

  40. Bert,

    “Could they actually cease to exist in the next few years?”

    No…They’re like a Birthmark, odd, unappealing, of absolutely no use, but almost impossible to get rid of no matter how hard you try!

    Peter.

  41. Allan Chrisitie,

    “Clinton is a daft bint. That yin will cause World war 3 with her Hawkish anti Russian rhetoric. For World peace and stability I hope you lot vote Trump.”

    Thank you for that contribution Dr Strangelove!

    Peter.

  42. @Allan

    For World peace and stability I hope you lot vote Trump

    The world has truly gone mad…

  43. Examples of Hawkish Anti Russian Rhetoric!!

    You have no right to annex Crimea by force!
    You won’t defeat Isis by bombing civilians in areas they don’t hold!

    Peter.

  44. l’m hearing new London Mayoral poll courtesy of YouGov. Excluding don’t knows :
    Khan (Labour): 48% (+3)
    Goldsmith (Conservative): 32% (-4)
    Whittle (UKIP): 7% (-)
    Berry (Green) 6% (+2)
    Pidgeon (Lib Dem): 6% (+1)

  45. Those polls where “leave” are ahead seem to be only once a week or so, although polls are tightening in their favour. Perhaps if they get the right day?

    I really didn’t think Labour had more than a transient lead recently – a modest Conservative lead seems more realistic in the current situation. The referendum doesn’t seem to be muddying the waters to that degree.

  46. @catman

    “The world has truly gone mad…”

    ————

    You only just noticed? Anyways, regarding the Open Source thing you brought up a couple of threads back, rumours of my opposition to open source have been greatly exaggerated. Mostly by me, it must be said, but as I’m sure you know, my favoured Mac OS has open source underpinnings and you can run quite a bit natively without having to resort to summat like that Cygwin faff.

    My stance is horses for courses. So, there are times when only Emacs will do*, but if you try and make a Carfrew do audio under Linux, he’ll dissolve into a puddle of tears. Like a Squonk…

    * (without getting into all the Emacs vs Vi thingummy…)

  47. “Could they actually cease to exist in the next few years?”

    ———–

    Nah, they’re waaaaaayyy too useful for Tories, who are liable to try and find a way to revive them where necessary…

  48. ROBERT NEWARK:
    “UKIP voters are racist and that there are no racists in the SNP”

    What’s the point in changing the assertion I made an then asking me to prove it? Do you think you might somehow trap me into saying something like “ALL x are y”? Or is it that you genuinely aren’t able to parse English sentences properly?

    If you think “all too common” means “everybody”, and “in my experience” means “everybody must immediately assent to my omniscience”, then you’ve got problems that are beyond my ability to help with.

  49. BERT:
    “Could they actually cease to exist in the next few years?”

    No… they will live on. In all our memories. For those who pass beyond the veil of votes still have a place in our hearts.

    There is still a lost soul in my ward, wandering the streets in the evenings, an electoral Malcolm Crowe, delivering leaflets. I greeted him when I was out canvassing a few nights ago. He looked down and hurried past, seemingly startled that I could see him. I think he’s become acclimatised to his invisibility, frightened by the sudden interaction with the living. “It’s ok,” I wanted to say, but he was gone: “it’s ok: I see Liberal Democrats.”

  50. Robert Newark

    “I am sure each party has support from both ‘nice’ and ‘nasty’ people. That’s the nature of nationalist parties.”

    True – though if you mean only “nationalist parties” have nasty racist/sexist people in them, then Labour, Tory and Lib Dem parties must be nationalist parties too.

    Which is not an unreasonable description of them. :-)

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