A quick update on polls in the weekend papers. The Independent on Sunday is no more, but the Sunday edition of the Indy’s website seems to be continuing with their monthly ComRes online poll (shared with the Sunday Mirror). Topline voting intention figures are CON 35%(-3), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 4%(nc).

ComRes still have the Conservatives ahead in the polls, but their online polls are consistently the most favourable for the Tories – the Tory lead here (and the contrast with other companies polls) are solely down to likelihood to vote weighting; before running the answers through ComRes’s turnout model Labour were ahead. The trend is exactly the same as in other polls, a deteriorating Conservative position. It’s a five point Tory lead this month, but a month ago it was nine points, a month before that fourteen points. Full tabs are here.

There was also a new Scottish poll by Panelbase, carried out for the Sunday Times. Holyrood constituency VI is SNP 51%, LAB 19%, CON 18%, LDEM 5%; regional VI is SNP 47%, CON 19%, LAB 18%, LDEM 4%, GRN 8%. Panelbase have Labour and the Conservatives essentially neck-and-neck in Scotland (and given the distribution of the vote and the impact of the regional vote, it may well produce more Tory MSPs than Labour ones) – this is something that YouGov Scottish polls have also shown, but Scottish polling from other companies has tended to show Labour in a clear second place.


148 Responses to “Sunday Polls – ComRes GB and Panelbase Scotland”

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  1. PETER CAIRNS (#twovotesSNP)

    I think you’re putting to much emphasis on Germany in the case of a Brexit. The vacuum caused by a Brexit will surely benefit other EU nations such as France and Italy giving them more leverage over German?
    …………

    “The EU won’t want the UK to leave but expecting over two dozen Countries to change direction because one has is more wishful thinking”
    ____

    I don’t see it as wishful thinking because even though I don’t think Cameron went far enough with his reforms he did manage to get his way on some stuff…One little Englander against the rest? I think the UK as a whole would have much more leverage than Cameron’s negotiations on reforms.

    If you’re saying the EU is such a hard ball institution to get concessions from then what are the prospects of an independent Scotland getting into the EU?

  2. KEN
    ALLAN CHRISTIE…….Ah, but what does the, ‘Fat Controller’ think ? :-)
    ____________

    He;s giving a thumbs up to Brexit. ;-)

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/bf/47/c4/bf47c44a36c11d6732df567f645be865.jpg

  3. “If you’re saying the EU is such a hard ball institution to get concessions from then what are the prospects of an independent Scotland getting into the EU?”

    Very good, the EU wants to grow as well as deepen and pulling the UK back in bit by bit might be appealing.

    Even if it’s just Scotland it almost certainly would add something that hasn’t been added in a long time……a net contributor!

    Peter.

  4. PETER CAIRNS (#twovotesSNP)

    Good answer, I was just checking. ;-)

  5. I’m slowly trying to distill the essential elements of the opposing arguments. Its beginning to look like this :-

    Stay In because, although the rules of this club are unbelievably restrictive & bureaucratic , we can’t afford to leave.

    Leave, then we can get rid of all the restrictions & bureaucracy , and re-join all the good bits .

  6. @ Peter Cairns

    I was thinking in terms of the political outlook of other EU countries, and of differing views of the future direction of the EU – for instance the very different approaches of the Italian and German foreign ministers. Germany generally sees the UK as an ally, and was notably more supportive of David Cameron’s ‘re-negotiation’ than most others.

  7. A post Brexit outcome I’ve not seen considered, but which would be almost counter-intuitive given the current aggressive proselytising by both parties, is one of benign acceptance of democratic reality, and a friendly separation, with the EU biting the bullet over UK financial contributions and withdrawal, but applying no commercial or trading penalties, thus allowing nature to take its course, and a seamless transition to a more acceptable and civilised relationship between us and our European neighbours. Or am I being unrealistic to expect such civilised behaviour. :-)

  8. The EU isn’t going to agree to us continuing our current access to the single market, but without our making financial contributions or being bound by its rules and standards.

    So yes, you’re being very unrealistic!

  9. @Colin:

    “Stay In because, although the rules of this club are unbelievably restrictive & bureaucratic , we can’t afford to leave.

    Leave, then we can get rid of all the restrictions & bureaucracy , and re-join all the good bits .”

    Those are the opposing arguments within the right-wing mindset.

    Meanwhile, the opposing arguments within left-wing land appear to be as follows:

    “Stay In because the rules of the club ensure continued protection of the rights of citizens and workers, and because the EU enables better cooperation in dealing with challenges like environmental protection, scientific research, international terrorism, cracking down on tax evasion / avoidance, the banking industry culture of excessive bonuses not linked to performance, etc etc”

    vs.

    “Leave because the EU is a neoliberal project that is enforcing austerity on member states (see Greece), is making member states open up their markets to external competition, and the free movement of labour is exploited by big business to drive down wages by bringing in cheap foreign workers. And last but not least, the TTIP which if signed will herald the apocalypse.”

  10. Anthony

    Time for YouGov to leap ahead of the field again – by being the first company to produce constituency figures for Holyrood that aren’t total rubbish!

    Your latest Scottish poll had 7% (as does Panelbase) with an “others” VI – Green 4% : UKIP 3%.

    Since there are zero UKIP constituency candidates [1], and only 3 Green ones, that is obviously not going to reflect actual voting.

    The 30 “Others” in 2011 got 1% of the vote. The 22 this time won’t get much more (though the Greens may get a reasonable number in their 3 constituencies)

    Since you know where we all live, can’t you put in a filter, so that only those in Glasgow Kelvin, Edinburgh Central and Coatbridge & Chryston are allowed to register a Green VI – and similar for the 6 TUSC seats?

    [1] Jeremy Blackwell has recalculated the data – There are 6 TUSC candidates, 1 Christian, 1 Libertarian, 3 Greens, 11 Independents.

  11. Ken

    “Or am I being unrealistic to expect such civilised behaviour. :-)”

    Not at all. Many thought that, despite the campaign rhetoric, England would have accommodated Scottish independence with good grace, had our referendum gone the other way.

  12. Unfortunately no one seems to be pushing my Remain argument;

    That the current EU like “Washington” for Americans is incredibly frustrating and beurocratic, but the only viable way to coordinate and govern something of this size, China and India being even worse!

    But we need to coordinate on this scale because in the long term everyone for themselves is worse!

    It’s like Churchill on Democracy;

    “The worst possible form of Government…..apart from all the rest!”

    Peter.

  13. Peter C
    I don’t see that as an argument for Remain. If it’s true that something like the EU is the only way to govern something of this size, that would be an additional argument for Leave, for me. Simply because in a smaller unit (independent UK) we can actually have democracy, even if our system is imperfect. The EU is totally undemocratic.

  14. ON
    This will be the first time the Scotch Cup Final has been contested between two lower division teams.

  15. Pete B,

    But the EU will still be there and will be much like it is now, only a bit less the way most in the UK would like.

    It will grow more integrated, larger and stronger and will along with the US, China and India dominate and dictate world trade. In time it will include Tirkey which is on course to be larger than the UK economy by 2030.

    It isn’t going away and it isn’t going to fall apart. We may not like it but it will have to be dealt with.

    You can run but you can’t hide….which is maybe the best remain argument of them all!

    Peter.

  16. Herald leading with a new Scottish BMG poll. Data not clear from picture of front page.

    However, it says that support for 1% rise in Income Tax DROPS when it’s identified as a Lab policy.

    Seems to confirm that policies are less important than trust (or the lack of it) in a party.

  17. I thought one of the possible outcomes of the ongoing eurocrisis, let alone a Brexit, was that the northern and southern nations separated to form their own euro-blocs.

    I was curious as to why Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics, persisted in questioning the impact of the Five Presidents report on the UK, in the event of a Remain vote. He seemed to be pretty convinced that the UK would find itself pulled into further political integration in spite of the ‘opt out’. I seem to remember a Peter Oborne article which suggested that a vote for staying would be taken by Cameron/Osborne/Mandelson as implicit acceptance of the Five President’s Report. It didn’t make any sense at the time because of the opt out, but Andrew Neil’s interview made me wonder if there could be any substance to Peter Oborne’s supposition.

  18. Btw is Carfew OK?

  19. PETER CAIRNS (#twovotesSNP)

    “. In time it will include Tirkey which is on course to be larger than the UK economy by 2030”
    __________

    If ever there was a reason to vote leave then this must be it. Turkey is increasingly becoming a dictatorship, it supports terrorist, it bombs its own people and shuts down newspapers if they dare to speak out against the president.

    A lot of economies will be bigger than the UK’s come 2030 but per capita Turkey will still be light years behind the UK and we shouldn’t compare Turkey’s economy using PPP against the UK using GDP but instead use Nominal GDP for both economies which will give a proper account of true performance epically if Turkey as you state will be part of the EU .

  20. The EU is totally undemocratic.
    Pete B April 17th, 2016 at 11:16 pm

    Why?

    And what about the UK’s Upper House?

  21. he following estimates are taken exclusively from the 2007 monograph Contours of the World Economy, 1–2030 AD by the British economist Angus Maddison.[2](GDP (PPP) in millions of 1990 International Dollars)

    Year
    2030 (Forecast)
    22,983,000 China
    16,662,000 USA
    10,074,000 India
    3,488,000 Japan
    2,406,000 Germany
    2,171,000 France
    2,150,000 UK
    2,017,000 Russia
    1,973,000 Indonesia
    1,853,000 Brazil

    Turkey no where to be seen

    Another forecast…

    THE TOP 5 AFTER 2030
    China
    United States
    India
    Britain
    Brazil
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12068319/Booming-Britain-to-become-worlds-fourth-largest-economy-as-France-and-Italy-face-G8-exclusion.html

  22. From my link,,

    The CEBR however warned Britain’s economic performance could be derailed by a number of major political risks – such as the breakup of the United Kingdom and an exit from the European Union.
    They noted that a “Brexit” would “prove at best disruptive and at worst lead to a more insular and less diverse culture which in turn would generate slower growth”.
    Britain’s uneven economic performance – where growth has been concentrated in booming London – and weak exports, are also risks to prosperity over the next 15 years, said the report.
    ________

    At best disruptive, well of course any negotiations are going to be disruptive…Short term pain for long term gain is the name of the game.

  23. Allan Christie

    “such as the breakup of the United Kingdom ”

    Statement of the absolutely bloody obvious!

    If the component parts of the UK are counted separately, then there won’t be a “UK” to put into a comparison table.

    Similarly, if the UK were to merge with the Netherlands (the 2 sets of Royals could have pistols at dawn to decide who rules) then that larger “United Kingdom” would be less insular and more diverse.

    The CEBR can be just as cretinous as anyone else.

  24. Well that’s what I get for not checking my figures…..

    Turkey along with Brazil and Nigeria was pre recession due to overtake the UK but I guess the banking crisis and the slump in oil has dented all three.

    As to Turkeys human rights record, if it doesn’t change it won’t get in, but it will change but because slowly but surely that’s the way all these countries are moving.

    On by one despite set backs most of Eastern Europe and the Balkans are turning into Western democracies. There will be set backs and it will be tough but over the next two decades the gap between us and them will continue to narrow.

    Peter.

  25. On by one despite set backs most of Eastern Europe and the Balkans are turning into Western democracies. There will be set backs and it will be tough but over the next two decades the gap between us and them will continue to narrow.
    Peter Cairns (SNP) April 18th, 2016 at 12:27 am

    This is why we pay into the EU. We are developing these economies. In the longer term it is in our interest to keep doing this — think of it as an investment. Of course, from these EU countries’ perspective this is why they want to be in the EU. In the long term it should be win-win.

    As to the comments about Turkey, I can’t see Turkey joining for decades, if at all. There is too much opposition within the EU from some to block any entry. But the mixed messages that have come from the EU to Turkey are now causing it to go in a reverse direction. Then again they have both a war on their southern border, and the Kurds to contend with. That part of the world is so mixed up with its own civil war.

    But I was in Instanbul the other month; an amazing, vibrant city. (Although I wish they wouldn’t try to dig up the road at 02:00 — then again, that’s when there’s no traffic so you can see the sense!!)

  26. LG

    Interesting to see that your”opposing arguments within left-wing land ” need so many more words .

    Verbal diarrhea seems a necessary component of left wing rhetoric.

    I haven’t read many which represent your second proposal-but your first is to be found on social media in bucket loads. I would describe it ( a little more succinctly ) as :-

    ” Vote Remain to stop Tory governments governing.

    -ie another feature of “left wing land”-democracy is only OK provided we win.”

  27. COLIN:
    another feature of “left wing land”-democracy is only OK provided we win

    A more fundamental point is that our electoral system throws up unfair results. There ought to be something balancing a majority government that received a mere plurality of votes.
    And before you say, no, this isn’t a partisan point since I believe the same thing about MY party’s representation in Westminster.

  28. Al Urqa
    “The EU is totally undemocratic.
    Pete B April 17th, 2016 at 11:16 pm
    Why?
    And what about the UK’s Upper House?”

    Yes, HoL is undemocratic, and should be made electable, but HoC has primacy, so no real problem.

    In the EU, the unelected Commission makes policy, and sometimes the Council of Ministers. The EU Parliament is completely toothless. UKIP won most UK seats in the last EU election, but neither they nor any other party in EU parliament have any say whatsoever in policy. If they did, some of the Remain arguments might be worth listening to.

    It’s ironic that we keep starting wars all round the world at least ostensibly to bring democracy, while simultaneously trying to get rid of it at home.

  29. Alurqua
    Think of the EU as a 100 or 200 year project. In 100 years how many people will have parents or grandparents from different states? How strong will nationalism be then? The idea is much less.”

    Well taking Scotland as a model, that ain’t gonna work is it? After 300 years there is no sign of nationalism waning there! And there is nothing wrong with that. I suspect most Scots see themselves as Scottish first, just as I see myself as English first.

  30. ALUN009

    I disagree-I like FPTP

  31. Pete B,

    “In the EU, the unelected Commission makes policy, and sometimes the Council of Ministers. ”

    And the Commissioners are chosen and appointed by the member states Governments… Who would you have decide, an EU wide election that could end up with six of the 27 from one country? Or what about selected by the EU parliament with the biggest political group choosing them all.

    Or what about the US system where a directly elected EU president appoints them all.

    The current appointment system isn’t perfect but like most things in the EU it balances the power of Soverign states with the need for a central body. If you have a better system other that “It can never work lets walk away” let’s here it but I suspect whatever system gets suggested here people who don’t want to be in the EU will attack it.

    A long standing feature of leave campaigners is that they argue that a commission appointed by elected heads of state is undemocratic, but they don’t want an EU with the power to decide things over the heads of Soverign Governments which kinds of contradicts itself.

    The second part of your statement about the Council of ministers is just misleading. The commission is appointed by the CoM, and the CoM makes all the real decisions and is where the power lies.

    Again Leave supporters complain that that’s undemocratic, but they don’t want to give more power to the elected EU parliament to curtail it! Why; because they just don’t like the EU and will attack it whatever it does!

    “UKIP won most UK seats in the last EU election, but neither they nor any other party in EU parliament have any say whatsoever in policy”

    The SNP won far more of the seats in Scotland at Westminster than UKIP did but we have no say on policy either. To have a real influence in any parliament you need either a lot of the seats or friends. In EU terms UKIP has neither. There is nothing undemocratic about the SNP with only 53 out of 650 seats not having a lot of influence.

    The way the EU gets round that is to place power with nationally elected leaders in the CoM not the Parliament so that large Countries or blocks can’t act like an EU government and over rule Soverign states.

    As I said before any system be it the EU, US, China or India, is going to be unweildy and full of compromises but it’s as good as it gets. I’ve never bought into the “Reformed” EU argument because it’s like Governments or Parties who claim they will balance the books but cutting waste and being more efficient….it never really happens!

    As to the unelected commission as many here have said, we don’t elect Judges or senior civil servants, NHS trust chief execuitives, Generals or Admirals….We appoint people with the right experience and qualifications on merit.

    I could just about live with PM Boris making the decision to go to war but electing him to lead the 1st Armoured Division into battle is a step to far!

    Peter.

  32. Morning folks – hope everyone had a good weekend, and that the blood pressure of any Leicester City fans is returning to normal levels :)

    @Pete B – The EU parliament isn’t as toothless as people imagine – it has control over the budget and appointment of the Commission itself – it does not have the kind of supremacy that Westminster has (in terms of the legislative procedure) but this was never the intention. The member states have always wanted to retain legislative power in their own parliaments, understandably enough.

    The lack of UK influence in the EU parliament is completely self-imposed. UKIP may have the most representation, but they belong to a group with Beppo Grilli’s 5 Star Movement (with which I’m not sure UKIP have much in common), which has only 46 MEPs in total. The Conservatives, moreover, left the EPP to join what’s now the ECR group, which is primarily made up of the Conservatives, Law and Justice from Poland, and the remnants of the AfD splinter group from Germany, with a smattering of other countries represented. These two groups have no influence in the EU Parliament, because they form the opposition! It’s very difficult for a country to have significant influence in a body that it pays lip-service too.

    For a laugh, just as a quick test, and no cheating(!), who’s the UK European Commissioner? And what’s his role?

    @Colin @8.11. That’s a wee bit harsh on left-wing rhetoric. If you want the “verbal diarrhoea” removed, let me put it another way.

    Remain: The EU isn’t perfect, but it provides protection for workers to stop us getting f***ed over

    Leave: The EU is a neo-liberal disaster zone, and TTIP will f*** us over…..

    Is that better (sorry AW for the French).

  33. LOUISetc.

    Yes-much.

    You’re getting the hang of it now.

  34. AL URQUA,

    That’s the point that largely gets missed in the EU debate that we should be looking to build a better, stronger fairer more equal Europe and the better off helping the weaker is the right thing to do.

    It is in our long term interests but it has it’s own merit. Lifting Eastern Europe from poverty will create markets for us and grow Europes economy but we should do it even if it didn’t.

    A Europe of closely integrated and economically similar democracies will be stronger than one with wide variations in wealth and a mix of democratic and autocratic states. One of the reasons I want to get Turkey into the EU is that in order to get in it will have to become a far better Country for the Turkish people.

    We seem incredibly focuses in this debate on what’s in it for us and hardly seem to mention the good we can do for others.

    The Leave campaign effective seems to think the Good Samaritan was a mug. Stopping to help someone he didn’t know for no better reason than they were in need, why everyone else had passed by so why shouldn’t we and besides we should look after ourselves first….they’re not our problem.

    I think Greeces economic woes are our problem because they are friends in great need and even if they weren’t friends we should still help. I think we should support those countries dealing with tens of thousands of migrants every week fleeing war rather than fixate on a fraction of that in Calais.

    I find it sad that so many on the Leave side like to make this about “British Values” when there attitude is so often “sod them I am alright Jack!”

    Peter.

  35. @Peter Cairns (SDP)
    Very well put and I agree with every word.

    @LWVG
    Plus – for remain – Letting the Tories negotiate our own TTIP will f*** us over for all time

  36. “Peter Cairns (SDP)”

    Quite a radical defection.

  37. “sorry AW for the French”

    I knew that things would get xenophobic on here during the EU referendum campaign.

    (I’m here all night folks.)

  38. The Leave campaign effective seems to think the Good Samaritan was a mug.
    Peter Cairns (SNP) April 18th, 2016 at 9:23 am

    That’s the funniest thing I’ve heard for ages!

    As the Brexiters think Economy, Economy, Economy, consider this. During the BSE crisis (or was it Foot and Mouth?) our beef was banned from sale in France by the French. They claimed it wasn’t fit for human consumption so slapped on the ban. They then set about filling the void by trying to gain market share for their own domestic products.

    It was only resolved by the UK taking the French to the ECJ, where we were able to overturn the ban and force the French to allow our meat back on their shelves.

    Now consider we have left the EU. At some point in the future there is another ‘event, dear boy, event!’ What happens then? We can’t go to the ECJ? Do we go crying to the WTO? How long will that take, and who will take notice?

    And this could happen to any part of our economy. There may be no tariffs imposed, but that doesn’t mean they will not impose non-tariff barriers. Russia routinely question the quality of imports in order to ban them under ‘safety grounds.’

    These are the sorts of things that make me cautious about coming out. And of course the points have been made previously over social regulations. The Conservatives didn’t want the Social Chapter, Labour signed up.

    I would expect that decision to be reversed early on ‘in the interest of our economy,’ you understand.

    But what I don’t really understand, is what the Brexiters REALLY want. They don’t want to be ruled by others, but we live in a global world (which was much different only 20 years ago — then we hardly ever talked of China). How can we be independent even with bi-lateral agreements when we have to cow-tow to all and sundry?

    Surely having the EU as the bully in the corner to back us up is in our best interest.

  39. OLDNAT
    Herald leading with a new Scottish BMG poll.

    Now they have an article on it – saved at http://archive.is/Jh8Go

    Oddly, their party %ages don’t seem to have been rounded to 100% but they list:

    Plurality seats:
    SNP 43% Lab 17% Con 13% LD 5%

    Regional list:
    SNP 37% Lab 16% Con 13% Grn 6% LD 5% UKIP 3%

    They then go on to say:
    However, nearly one in five voters said that they were still undecided with less than three weeks to go until polling day.

    So presumably they don’t want to report SNP on about 54% for the plurality seats and about 44% for the list.

  40. Al Urqa,

    “But what I don’t really understand, is what the Brexiters REALLY want.”

    They want it to go away…where it is things they don’t like.

    The EU represents the formalisation of the necessary compromises needed in a complex global age and they don’t like compromises or complexity.

    So if we get rid of the EU, life won’t be complicated and we won’t have to compromise!

    After that all we’ll need to do is Repeal the Law of Gravity so we can all float to work!

    Peter.

  41. Ah! The 1950s (well, up to 1957).

    Got it! :-)

  42. Al Urqa,

    Back to the age of pre Bretton Woods free trade, where Britain dictated the terms of trade to Countries like India to our advantage against There interests!

    The Good old days…

    Back to British Values of honesty and hard work……

    But if you tramp into a field before dawn and try to explain that to a bunch of Romainian migrants picking carrots for a pittance, they just shake their heads….

    Peter.

  43. Bretton Woods. I’ve heard of that. Isn’t that where all the immigrants are hiding?

    Seriously though, I can’t see how they can improve our economy or stop immigration. They can devalue (ie, print money, so even more expensive houses), but that will make our exports cheaper, make foreign holidays expensive, but make imports dearer. So those products that we export that rely in part on imports (ie semi-finished components) will struggle because these components will become dearer. But that’s because we live in a global world.

    But we can put up border controls. Hurray!

    If we devalue anyway, more of these pesky Europeans will want to come over for holidays (‘it’s dirt cheap in the UK, don’t you know?’). What will we put in place to force them back on the plane when their time is up?

    I really do struggle to see how they can practically stop immigration.

    As I said in a previous post if we come out I think we will end up going back in in a few years time (it maybe say 2040, but that’s really not that far away) but on their terms not ours.

    Then again, by 2040 many Brexiters may well be dead by then.

    As much as I am enjoying this, I have to hop on another plane (at least the network at Schipol is free). Finland here I come. (I wonder if they’ll welcome me?)

  44. Barbazenzero

    “What Scotland Thinks have tweeted the BMG VI excluding DKs.

    Party : Const : List : Cutbot seat Pred : SV seat Pred

    SNP : 53% : 46% : 72 : 71
    Lab : 21% : 20% : 27 : 26
    Con : 16% : 16% : 18 : 18
    LD : 6% : 6% : 6 : 6
    Grn : – : 7% : 5 : 8
    UKIP : – : 1 : 0

    4% “Others” on Constituency poll is still too high, and I’m not putting money on either seat predictor being correct in allocating seats to parties!

  45. Corection

    UKIP : – : 4% : 1 : 0

  46. As a simple person, with limited knowledge of these things, I decided, after much consideration, that I would vote Brexit. Then the roof fell in, according to George O, interviewed by Nick Robinson this morning, Brexiteers are, ” economically illiterate ” he reittererated for emphasis.
    Now call me simple, I don’t mind, but this is the George O who’s austerity policy I support, my problem is, how do I square the circle of supporting austerity, with my economic illiteracy, perhaps, in my new role as an economic ignoramus, I should re-examine my obviously ill-judged decision to support austerity, thanks for setting me on the road to Damascus, George…..now then, where’s that 3 quid I put away for the roof…..! ;-)

  47. COLIN:
    “I disagree-I like FPTP”

    That’s lovely, but earlier you were complaining about lack of democracy. A party getting 95% of the seats on 50% of the vote is not, and can never be, democratic.
    Watch what happens in Holyrood in 2.5 weeks’ time. The SNP will get what they deserve (approx half the seats on present polling). So will the minor parties.

    In your world, democracy is ok as long as bigger parties gets more MPs per vote than the smaller ones. Apart from the moral absurdity of that, there are huge practical difficulties with it too.

    If I were being kind, I’d suggest your criticism of others’ democratic credentials was “audacious”.

  48. OLDNAT
    4% “Others” on Constituency poll is still too high, and I’m not putting money on either seat predictor being correct in allocating seats to parties!

    Thanks for that and I agree entirely with your last sentence. The Herald’s deliberate dissembling of Prof. C’s paper on the outcome won’t help enhance predictor accuracy either. It will doubtless get free publicity from the state broadcaster but is so mendacious that the on-line condemnation of it may balance things out.

  49. Howdy folks. Just perusing the Treasury document on the economic impact of Brexit. It’s a weighty tome, over 200 pages, and even though I find the numerical conclusions of the document to be a bit overplayed (in particular, the £4300 per household mentioned in the briefing is pretty misleading), there’s a lot of detail and depth in the analysis that has been missing from the debate thus far. It also, for perhaps the first time, places some imperative on the Brexit campaign to come up with some credible figures showing how the EU negatively affects the UK economy (BTW simply rejecting the report as being biased doesn’t really cut it).

    Whether it’ll make the blindest bit of difference to the outcome is another thing though, and the Chancellor isn’t exactly Mr Popular at the moment, so who knows?

    @Oldnat, Barbazenzero,

    I don’t read or see the Herald (or, mea culpa, follow Scottish politics in depth since the referendum) – is there a particular point to reporting the poll in such an odd manner?

    On the point about the constituency vote – I made a similar point about the Northern Ireland assembly the other day, where people may *intend* to vote for a (usually small) party, but may find that the party is not on the ballot. I don’t think it’ll make a big difference in the constituency vote in Scotland this time, but it might be something to keep in mind for the local elections in England and Wales, where UKIP and Lib Dems are unlikely to contest all seats.

  50. LOUISWALSHVOTESGREEN
    is there a particular point to reporting the poll in such an odd manner?

    Feel free to draw your own conclusion but I suspect it’s simply a matter of the Labour hacks on the Herald doing their utmost not to advertise that SNP seem to be over 50% for the 73 plurality seats and not far below for the regional ones.

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