This morning’s Times had a new YouGov poll, full tables are here.

Topline voting intention was CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3%. The poll follows a torrid few weeks for the Conservative party – a badly received budget, IDS’s resignation, the Tata steelworks and the week long fuss over David Cameron’s tax affairs. All of that has occured against the backdrop of the party arguing with itself over Europe and saying very little about any other issue. It’s always difficult to link a drop in support in the polls to specific events, but there are plenty of plausible reasons for a fall.

YouGov’s latest topline figures for the EU referendum are REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 50%. Looking at the underlying questions, there are a couple of significant movements in favour of LEAVE. Firstly on terrorism, 25% of people now think that Britain would be safer from terrorism if we left the EU (up from 16% back in February) – perhaps an impact from the Brussels terrorist attacks. Secondly trust in David Cameron on the issue of Europe has dropped sharply, from 29% to 21%. In fairness, trust in most of the leave figures (including Boris Johnson) has fallen too – the only person whose figures have increased is Jeremy Corbyn, who with 28% trust is now more trusted on Europe than Cameron.

Looking at some more general questions on the Tory leadership David Cameron’s ratings have declined there too. In December his lead over Jeremy Corbyn as best Prime Minister was twenty-six points, now it is only seven points (almost all due to Cameron’s rating falling, rather than Corbyn’s increasing) – 32% Cameron (down 17), 25% Corbyn (up 2). As with the voting intention figures, I would be cautious about jumping to conclusions about the reasons for the drop in Cameron’s ratings – while the questions were asked just after the row over his investments, in the same people people said by 45% to 35% that Cameron hadn’t actually done anything wrong. It is just as likely to be the impact from the budget, from the general running of the government or from Cameron losing the support and loyalty of Conservative voters who are backing leave. It will be interesting to see to what degree the ratings of the Conservative party and David Cameron himself recover once the referendum is finally over and they can get on with something else (assuming, of course, that Cameron’s leadership survives the aftermath)

On the subject of Cameron’s future 31% of people now think he should step down in the next year (up from 18% in December), compared to 36% who think he should stay until 2019 or later (down from 50% in December). If Britain votes to leave the European Union 44% think that Cameron should resign. In terms of a successor, Boris Johnson remains the clear favourite of the public and of Conservative voters. Support for George Osborne is now very low – he is the choice of only 4% of the public, of only 2% of Conservative voters (behind Michael Gove and Sajid Javid). Osborne even lags behind Jeremy Corbyn in a question on who would make the best Prime Minister – he will have some catching up to do to repair his reputation ahead of any leadership election.


161 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 31, LAB 34, LD 8, UKIP 17, GRN 3”

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  1. @OldNat

    ““Give you 1st aid treatment in an emergency” (Sturgeon preferred)”

    Willing to bet that she won because some baffled people being polled mistook it for ‘surgeon’ :)

  2. Laszlo
    “I actually think that making the tax returns public is inevitable – the question is timing. The Comres participants seem to be supporting it, unless they don’t tell the truth. But then …”

    The problem is, not everyone has to complete a tax return in the UK. In France for instance, by law, every family unit submits one completed by the head of the household and you only have 4 weeks in which to do it. In the uk it seems to be pot luck. Some might say that’s because of paye but I was paye all my working life and had to complete one every year.

    I would be in favour of publishing tax returns as in Norway but only if it applies to everyone. If some want to do it voluntarily, then they can but a law must apply to all, including window cleaners.

  3. I wonder if the “Priest ” & the “Levite” had been to their local Starbucks on the “other side” of the road-or had just paid their windowcleaner -“perhaps”?

  4. Stephen Fisher published a forecast for the Local Election on Friday 15th April:

    https://electionsetc.com/2016/04/15/forecasting-local-election-seats-2016/

    Here is the Rawlings and Thrasher effort:

    ht tps://www.psa.ac.uk/sites/default/files/English%20Local%20Elections%20Update%20-%20PSA%20Media%20Briefing%20Pack.pdf

    There is much to digest, so hopefully AW can write something up (pretty please).

    :)

  5. “..You should vote out or in because it’s what you believe is best for the country.”

    yes it’s a big failing of democracy that people are allowed to make their own minds up on what they consider important, and consequently vote the wrong way !

  6. @ Robert Newark

    Yes, it is true. Actually many people in the UK would be a little bit better off if they filled in a tax return form (especially those for whom their employers don’t provide the tools of work).

  7. @ OldNat

    Yes, I know.
    There are countries (Hungary and Germany comes to my mind), where the tax officer can stop you as you leave a shop and if you don’t have a receipt, you can be accused of tax dodging, although I haven’t heard of such cases from Germany for decades (mind, when they did some restoration work on the building of Ministry of Finance, not all contractors gave receipts …). Hungary, in spite of (or because of?) its draconian VAT laws is probably a European record holder in VAT dodging.

  8. @Kentdalian

    “yes it’s a big failing of democracy that people are allowed to make their own minds up on what they consider important, and consequently vote the wrong way !”

    :-):-)

  9. New Saltired thread, btw

  10. One point I’ve not seen about Brexit.

    If we leave the EU, it will mean one of the big, heavyweight countries will not be there to put the brakes on further integration. The EU is all about integration (which is why, in part, the UK strongly supported expansion to water down further unification). With the UK gone, I would expect to see a renewed attempt at further integration — with the banking union probably being pursued with renewed vigour.

    If we leave, how unified and how strong will the EU become in 20 years time? If the EU is much stronger then an economy of 400+ million peoples will be much more able to throw its weight about. In that case I would predict we will be back in but on their terms. But hey, you reap what you sow!

  11. So KENTDALIAN, your not going to vote for what you think is best for the country then? Is what’s best for the country not important?

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