YouGov have published new polls in both Scotland and Wales in the last couple of days. Taking Wales first, topline voting intention figures for the Welsh Assembly are CON 19%(-3), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 17%(+2), Plaid 21%(nc) for the constituency vote and CON 20%(-2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 16%(+2), Plaid 20%(-2) for the regional vote. The Conservatives are down a little, reflecting their drop in the national polls. Roger Scully’s detailled write up is here and the tabs are here.

The YouGov Scottish poll for the Times has topline figures of SNP 50%(+1), LAB 21%(+2), CON 18%(-1), LDEM 5%(-1) for the constituency vote, and SNP 45%(+2), LAB 19%(+2), CON 18%(-1), GRN 8%(nc), LDEM 5%(nc) in the regional vote. The last couple of YouGov Scottish polls had the Conservatives ahead of Labour on one vote or the other. Today’s poll had Labour back ahead, though they are still extremely close (closer than in most other Scottish polls). The rest of the poll had various questions on leadership, particularly on whether people think Ruth Davidson or Kezia Dugdale would make a better leader of the opposition – Ruth Davidson polled better, but her comparatively positive personal ratings are clearly not translating into much support for the Scottish Tories. Full tabs are here.

Finally today we got ICM’s weekly EU referendum tracker, with topline figures of REMAIN 42%, LEAVE 45%. Full tabs are here


178 Responses to “YouGov Scottish and Welsh polls”

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  1. @ Catman

    Great graphs!

  2. @Assiduosity

    “One question as to the political wisdom of Goldsmith’s tactics. It’s often said that Boris Johnson was able to win the mayoralty by reaching people who would never normally vote Conservative (though this is more supposition than established fact and there are likely more complex factors at play), but if that theory is even part true, is this new hard Zac – as opposed to the cuddly green Tory from Richmond – likely to attract these same swing voters?”

    I suspect that Zac’s campaign are hoping they can sully Sadiq’s image in Labour’s central/innner London heartlands sufficiently so as to depress the turnout in these areas. This could in theory allow Zac’s popularity in the suburbs to just about win out overall (it being a single constituency election).

    However, as you say, Zac’s polarising approach to the campaign is likely to deter swing voters. It may also cost him second preference votes from Green/LD’s voters. His approach has detracted from his previous maverick image. Londoner’s love a bit of rebelliousness and independence from their mayors (provided it’s genuine). Zac appears to have lost that.

  3. Does anyone know the Polling dates for the latest yougov?

  4. I can’t understand why no-one has posted these results:

    LABOUR increases lead. YouGov Westminster voting intention: Labour 34%, Con 31%, UKIP 17%, Lib Dem 8%, Other 11%.
    EU referendum: Remain 39%, Leave 39%, DK 15%, WV 7%.
    Corbyn more trusted on Europe than Cameron on EU ref: Corbyn 28%, Johnson 26%, Cameron 21%, Farage 19%, Gove 12%.
    Better choice for PM in following scenarios: Cameron 32% v Corbyn 25%. Johnson 34% v Corbyn 29%. Osborne 21% v Corbyn 34%.
    Who would you choose to follow Cameron: Johnson 25%, May 8%, Osborne 4%, Gove 4%, Javid 2% (all voters).

  5. Syzygy

    Well, two of us posted the VI figures before you!

    Dunno why you didn’t post the Times number on control of the North Sea resources! :-)

  6. @Syzygy

    Thank you!

    It’s all due to the power of ‘R’.

    (Don’t tell Carfrew though. It’s great open source software, and that really upsets him)

    ;-)

  7. @ RAF

    You are perfectly right about the interpretation of the ICM poll.

    However, it seems that some of the noted interpretations of Islam that have become rather prevelant in Pakistan and Bangladesh have also found their way to the UK diaspora, at least in some communities (not to mention of the Increased spending of the Wahabbi states on scholarships and publications in Pakistan and the U.K.). It is not a conspiracy problem, just the conjectures of ways of life, social stratification, policies and politics.

    Anti-semitism is an issue all over the place and must be taken seriously. In the last 10 days I was called anti-Semitic and Zionist just for a good measure (but the emergence of the current Labour Party news items in this context seems to be too coincidental to me not to attribute it to the defeated faction of the party).

  8. Oldnat

    Thanks for the reply.

    I didn’t think Lab’s former dominance in Scotland was good for Scotland or good for Lab and at the moment the SNP seem to be completely dominating the agenda in Scotland in a way that I don’t think anyone has in England since Thatcher (stretching the point a bit, but I’m going to say New Labour didn’t dominate the agenda in the same way because they accepted so much of the Thatcher settlement and are paying the price for that now). We’re reminded quite frequently that Cameron’s mandate is pretty flimsy (low turnout, less than X% of the vote depending on how you’re counting etc. etc.). I’m guessing that doesn’t happen in Scotland because the SNP have a solid mandate.

    It’ll be interesting to see how SLab’s new taxation policy works out. Given that the SNP are widely perceived as competent other parties need to compete on policy and not managerial ability. But as you say it’s probably what Sir Humphrey would call ‘brave’ to expect people anywhere in the UK to vote for higher income tax and if that’s the way the policy is spun it probably fails in the short term. I thought the more interesting line was the attempt to paint the SNP as too frit to make use of the powers they had – to undermine the drive for independence or to stake a claim to being the party of Scottish identity and Scottish interests?

    The gradualists, who think Scottish independence is coming and should come, but very, very slowly so as not to destabilise anything and would have voted for devomax if it had been an option might be persuaded to switch to ‘yes’ if Scotland started differentiating more from England and the sky didn’t fall in.

    What should I call the roughly 45% who are prepared to vote for independence if they’re not all happy to be small-n nationalists?

  9. Sorbus

    “The gradualists, who think Scottish independence is coming and should come, but very, very slowly so as not to destabilise anything and would have voted for devomax if it had been an option might be persuaded to switch to ‘yes’ if Scotland started differentiating more from England and the sky didn’t fall in.”

    With the qualification that a lot of “devomaxers” did vote Yes in 2014, I wouldn’t disagree with that assessment.

    Indeed (on the basis of zero insider information!) I think that is exactly the SNP strategy for the next Parliament.

    “What should I call the roughly 45% who are prepared to vote for independence if they’re not all happy to be small-n nationalists?”

    “Pro-indy” is quite a popular term for the roughly 50% who currently support independence. :-)

    Many of those opposing Scottish independence are British small-n nationalists, but not all are – just the same as the pro-indy side.

    I do understand that some supporters of the current UK state really object to being described as Nationalists too, but the Brexit ones might have some difficulty in substantiating that idea. :-)

  10. @ Oldnat

    Apologies if I sounded churlish .. I really meant specifically Corbyn more trusted on EU ref than Cameron. Why!

    Is it a generic ‘more trusted’ after the last couple of weeks of Cameron’s ‘bad luck’ … or is it that Corbyn hasn’t said anything and therefore, he hasn’t said anything to upset anyone? Whichever, it seems like a good strategy for him. Perhaps he should develop a sore throat and lose his voice prior to his big EU speech tomorrow. (Have to say had a bit of a shudder when Chuka said that he’d congratulated Corbyn on making the speech… no love lost there).

  11. Virtual indifference on this thread to the Wales poll, it seems. It is rather a case of polldrums, I suppose, and thus may account for the lack of comment. Most posters on this site seem to be rather right wing nowadays so perhaps they prefer to ignore the projection of Labour edging towards the magic “ceiling”
    of 30 seats when they won’t need a coalition partner. FWIW I predict they will get 30 seats, with all UKIP’s (new) seats coming at the expense of the Cons, Plaid and LibDems. Total wipe-out for the latter possible, if rather undeserved. However UKIP may not do as well as the polls suggest when people in Mid and SE Wales tumble to the fact that voting UKIP on the regional
    List = 4 years of Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless pontificating in the Senedd, which would probably swell the not inconsiderable ranks of those who would still abolish the Assembly given half the chance. I voted for it enthusiastically in the Referendum, but am only about 60:40 in favour of keeping it now. Wales might be better off with 3-4 large regional councils. Still, better the devil you know, I suppose.

  12. @Syzygy

    “Whichever, it seems like a good strategy for him.”

    Narrative wise it could work well. Given that the ‘centrist’ pundits have spent the last week wailing in terror that Cameron’s loss of status jeopardizes the Remain campaign, should Remain win it wouldn’t be hard to spin it as due to Labour and Corbyn.

    Whether this actual strategy or just dumb luck I don’t know. But even if it’s the latter it’s not necessarily bad. We all know what Napoleon, allegedly, said about generals…

  13. @AU

    Well, he said quite a bit about generals….

    “I made all my generals out of mud.”

    “The greatest general is he who makes the fewest mistakes.”

    “Doctors will have more lives to answer for in the next world than even we generals.”

    etc. etc.

  14. Even more if you count Field Marshals…

    “Every private in the French army carries a Field Marshall wand in his knapsack.”

    (Which I’m not sure translates very well, but still…)

  15. @Syzygy

    “I agree. There’s also some evidence that business journalists are a bit shaky on the whole household budget thingy… let alone that a surplus taking from private sector.”

    ——————

    Yeah, it’s not trivial to get your head around. But it seems as though the range of ideas in economics peeps have been given to study on degrees courses has been rather limited, and students have had to take matters into their own hands to try and get a better curriculum.

    And of course, the implication of the impact of deficit reduction on growth is that beyond a certain point deficit reduction becomes primarily a means of shrinking the state. Interesting thing though, is why the idea of a surplus is so compelling now. It’s not like shrinking the state is a new idea.

    But in the past, couldn’t so easily get away with cutting deficits, because of the impact on growth. But now, there are new mechanisms to partially offset, if only temporarily… QE, and the guarantees that lie behind Help to Buy, plus trying to attract inward investment via corp tax cuts. (Business may not always be that fussed anyway in a number of cases as it’s easier to offshore nowadays).

    Of course the small state thing may well turn out rather barren. It allows the big corporates to take over more and more, filling the vacuum, and they quite like a lot of state anyway, to stack the deck and provide all those juicy public sector contracts. So you may not end up with much less “Stäte”, just less desirable state, less democratically accountable, more in cahoots with the corporates. Fan-tas-tic…

  16. SYZYGY

    ” I really meant specifically Corbyn more trusted on EU ref than Cameron. Why!”

    I think the reasons are fairly obvious. It is clear Corbyn’s support for Europe is at best lukewarm and this attitude reflects that of the voters to judge by the closeness of the on-line polls. Cameron is and always has been committed to staying in the EU, so i think the figures were entirely predictable.

  17. Its funny how issues bubble up , create lots of inconsequential headlines & irrelevant debate & then dies down , leaving incidents of real relevance almost entirely unreported.

    The Supreme Court yesterday refused an application by Eclipse35 to appeal HMRC’s successful legal actions against it.

    Eclipse35 was devised by HSBC & licensed to Future Capital Partners in 2006. It was an artificial film “investment” scheme which generated £404k in tax relief for every £173k of investment. Subscribers included many sports people-including Alex Ferguson. Around 300 members now face tax bills many times their cash investment. One case alone will generate £7m in tax.

    I was struck by this plaintive reflection from the founder of FCP :-

    ” The financial crisis changed everything. Between 2005 & 2007 the tax take was growing, the UK had a budget surplus , the economy was good, everyone was happy. No one was worked up about these transactions. In the environment we are in today , they look like egregious and unacceptable tax avoidance schemes. But thats not the way they were viewed”

    !!

  18. TOH: “It is clear Corbyn’s support for Europe is at best lukewarm … Cameron is and always has been committed to staying in the EU.”

    I don’t think t’s quite as simple as that. The EU Cameron is committed to is the bean-counter’s EU: on balance, he seems to accept that Britain is better off economically in than out. As to the rest of the European project – cooperation rather than conflict; creating an alternative to subservience to the US; internationalism rather than nationalism; working for the common good rather than narrow self interest – he never mentions it. That might be because he thinks it’s a turn-off for UK voters, but I think it’s more likely that he just doesn’t subscribe to any of what used to be called ‘the vision thing’ when it comes to Europe.

    Corbyn, on the other hand, seems wary of the banker’s Europe – the ECB dominated by German economic orthodoxy (which should be dear to TOH’s heart); adherence to the globalisation agenda; TTIP. What I would expect him to show more enthusiasm for is the protection of workers’ rights; control of unbridled capitalism; environmental protection; combined action on environment, pollution, global warming, wildlife and animal welfare. “Workers of the EU, unite” in a nutshell.

    If Corbyn concentrates in his speech on building the positive case for the EU, from a left/centrist perspective, describing the EU we could help to build, then I think he could gain the moral high ground, rising above the squalid calculations of material self-interest that have so far dominated the argument.

  19. I like the idea that “protection of workers’ rights” isn’t “material self-interest”

    Try telling that to Hollande & his colleagues :-

    http://www.france24.com/en/20160409-protesters-keep-pressure-french-government-over-contested-labour-law

  20. @ Colin.

    An interesting point. Clearly the aggressive promotion of the interests of specific groups of workers – as in abuses of union power in the old Fleet Street – can degenerate into pretty squalid (and ultimately self-destructive) self-interest. But I think the protection of workers from employer abuses like unsafe working conditions, some zero-hours contracts etc is a collective good and cannot fairly be dismissed as material self-interest.

    What would be interesting to see polled is what, if any, enthusiasm for the non-economic aspects of the European project exists in the UK. Do we overwhelmingly see the EU as ‘them’ rather than an ‘us’ of which we’re a prime-moving part? Are Brits dismissive of the wider aspects of Europe or simply unaware of them because of a diet dominated by straight bananas and ‘up yours, Delors?’

  21. SOMERJOHN

    I found the first part of Robinson’s TV prog “Them or Us” fascinating. The first part covered the early years & revealed many interesting attitudes & political shenanigins. Part 2 to come.

    I think “Brits” have been wary of two things:-

    * The idea of a Federal Europe & pooled sovereignty, which Robinson show was there from the very start.

    * The increasing distance between the People of Europe & its Legislators. ( aka the Democratic Deficit) I think that Labours historic lack of enthusiasm for the EU is largely centered in this area.

  22. Morning folks – I thought I’d comment on the polls this morning (as I did yesterday) in order to avoid “insulting” the more sensitive contributors.

    Looking at the details of that YouGov, there’s still very little direct switching between Labour and the Conservatives – Labour have picked up a few LDs and UKIP supporters, while the Conservatives have lost mostly to UKIP. I suppose with the referendum coming up, this isn’t too surprising, but it’s hard to know how long it’ll last after June. Those still intending to vote Conservative are very split on Brexit though, and that wiill require some delicate leadership regardless of the result in June.

    I was looking at Roger Scully’s analysis of the Welsh poll – it’s pretty awful for the Lib Dems but there’s a real opportunity for Plaid to make some gains at the expense of the Conservatives and Labour. Unless there’s some hefty tactical voting, the Lib Dems are toast. It could be good for UKIP – I suppose it depends on how eager Welsh voters are to have Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton in the Assembly.

    Finally, on Oldnat’s discussion about split-ticket voting – I wonder if smaller parties occasionally lose out under AMS if they don’t have constituency candidates – is there any evidence to suggest that if voters don’t see a recognisable local name on the ballot, they’ll not give the party the list vote?

  23. CATMANJEFF:

    “The power of R”
    Are you using a package for the EWMA charts? Or have you written your own script? I had a little look in CRAN for EWMA but I don’t see anything, so if you can point to an existing package I’d be grateful. Just to save me the work of writing and testing the formulae myself :)

    Something I don’t quite get:
    “The Conservatives still slipping, Labour and UKIP holding okay but not breaking through.”
    Where are all the votes going?! Is this not a zero-sum game? I haven’t seen polling evidence to show a significant rise in LD or Green support. Can we infer that Labour and Ukip are both mild beneficiaries of the Tories’ slide?

  24. @COLIN

    I am afraid the Eclipse35 story does not fit the current narrative of the government being soft on tax avoidance. It is thus unlikely to get much coverage. The right leaning part of the media are desperate not to boost Cameron or Osborne as they see Brexit as a much bigger prize.

    You are right of course about Hollande’s travails. Corbyn wants to promote the kind of socialist Europe that France is finding so crippling to its economy and has pushed up unemployment.

    I find it irritating that many of the people I’ve come across, who are most against the EU, base their views on a simple dislike of the French, none of whom they have ever met. Perhaps I just don’t meet the right people.

  25. The tables for the YouGov poll are now available:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ugdbpjyfyn/TimesResults_160412_VI&EURef_W.pdf

    I suspect Anthony will concentrating on the EU questions when he comments later, so I just make one point about why I think, in what is a very finely balanced poll[1], that Remain is still likely to win. Asked “How safe or risky do you think it would be for Britain to leave the European Union?” 48% say Risky (v 35% Safe)[2]. In the end people tend to vote for safety.

    Anyway, the headline VI figures in this poll are:

    Con 31%

    Lab 34%

    Lib Dem 8%

    UKIP 17%

    SNP/PC 7%

    Green 3%

    A lot of the drop in the Tory vote is due to 2015 voters shifting to DK and WNV (20% and 3%). Indeed DK and WNV is quite high in this survey by historic levels (28%) though some of that will be due to methodological changes. As LWVG says there’s currently very little Lab/Con swapping

    [1] YouGov are asking likelihood to vote, but not as far as I can see, applying it. We are usually told that the Leave side are more likely to vote, but even that depends on what filter you use. If you look at LTV of 10/10, Leave are ahead 73 – 69. But include 8-10 and it is Remain 78 – 75.

    [2] They also asked the reverse question “How safe or risky do you think it would be for Britain to remain part of the European Union?
    ” and similarly got 47% Safe, Risky 33% – though a split sample would be interesting.

  26. @Colin

    Ah, I wasn’t aware of the Robinson programme (I’m in Spain). Sounds as if my query is being addressed. I’ll catch it on iPlayer.

    I wonder if the ‘democratic deficit’ is real, or a perception generated by the almost total lack of coverage of EU process in the UK. I read El Pais most days and almost invariably there will be several stories about the interaction between Spain and the EU, which treat the EU as a legitimate part of the governance of Spain. Maybe this is a result of the comparative lack of trust in their own government; Brussels is seen as a useful restraint on the freedom of the national government to make a mess of things.

    To the extent that there is a democratic deficit, the remedies lie in increasing the power of EU democratic institutions and their control over the Commission and Council of Ministers. Logically, those concerned about a democratic deficit should be campaigning for the Commission to be formed by the group in the EU Parliament commanding a majority. But I think what most of them have in mind is something more like a national veto over policy decisions; which of course in a Union of 28 spells paralysis.

  27. RMJ1

    It doesn’t. I cannot understand why Osborne doesn’t trumpet this sort of news on every tv bulletin. Not just on the tax loophole success front, but on the contrast with the attitudes to Evasion under the GB regime

    I smile to think that JC would be in the crowds in Paris-protesting against Hollande’s attempted reform of France’s sclerotic Labour Laws.

  28. Amusing that the French are more productive workers than us in the UK eh Col?

  29. SOMERJOHN

    I don’t really know what “people think” about EU Democracy.

    For my part, there are so many institutions between the Voter & the Legislators that all attempts to increase representation merely seem to pile Structure upon Structure & Bureaucracy upon Bureaucracy .

    I don’t see how this many supposedly sovereign countries can conduct governance based on supra-national agreement without ever more delay & obfuscation being added to that which already features in their deliberations.

  30. @ Welsh Borderer

    ‘I voted for it enthusiastically in the Referendum, but am only about 60:40 in favour of keeping it now. Wales might be better off with 3-4 large regional councils. Still, better the devil you know, I suppose.’

    Interesting observation… I feel very mixed about ‘devolved’ government but living in the SE, it feels a bit impertinent to have a strong view. It seems to me that the predictable contradictions might have been intended to be resolved by a federal arrangement within a United States of Europe…

  31. MARKW

    Would you swop their unemployment rate for ours to be more productive?

  32. @ Anarch

    ‘Whether this actual strategy or just dumb luck I don’t know. ‘

    I suppose that could be spun quite well too :)

  33. Good morning all from a warm and sunny central London.

    The Sun news paper are linking the fall in support for Cameron and the rise in support for Brexit to the Panama papers.

    “Public trust in PM plummets as voters lean towards Brexit”
    ” Cameron, the figurehead of the In campaign, has been hurt by the Panama Papers revelations”
    ____

    Good news for us who want to see Brexit but if the wider picture is showing a dip in support for the Tories and going over to the Kippers then I think this will have serious ramifications for the Tories after the EU vote.

    The next GE is indeed over 4 years away but that comfort zone might be compromised by splits, resignations, back stabbings (I’m talking Alamo stuff here) followed by votes of no confidence.

    Or it could all just turn out fine and we limp on as one big happy family within the EU…..

  34. COLIN
    MARKW
    “Would you swop their unemployment rate for ours to be more productive”
    _______

    :-) :-)

  35. @ Carfew

    ‘Interesting thing though, is why the idea of a surplus is so compelling now. It’s not like shrinking the state is a new idea.’

    ‘Starve the Beast’ and Jude Wanniski’s ‘two santas’ updated? George Osborne gilding the lily?

    Don’t need to tell you that the whole ‘shrinking the state’ thingy is another bit of misnomer… the last thing that would be useful for the corporates is a state that doesn’t protect their trade agreements, let alone an actual ‘free market’.

  36. @The Other Howard

    “Interesting isn’t it?”

    ————-

    I find it fascinating. Not from the more obvious “marketing” point of view, simply trying to sell ideas or memes, often to secure power or pander to some self-interest, but the more challenging quasi-educational aspect, observing what ideas and mechanisms take root to get people to unlock more of theirs and others potential, if sometimes indirectly.

    In this regard, one tends to find that both left and right have some bits of the puzzle, but variously missing bits also.

  37. @ TOH

    ‘I think the reasons are fairly obvious. It is clear Corbyn’s support for Europe is at best lukewarm and this attitude reflects that of the voters to judge by the closeness of the on-line polls.’

    That certainly works for me.

    @ Somerjohn

    ‘If Corbyn concentrates in his speech on building the positive case for the EU, from a left/centrist perspective, describing the EU we could help to build, then I think he could gain the moral high ground, rising above the squalid calculations of material self-interest that have so far dominated the argument.’

    Fingers crossed :)

  38. YouGov asked the Best PM question for (I think) only the second time since the election. Because Cameron has announced his intention to quit, they also set Corbyn against various contenders.

    Cameron 32% (-17) v Corbyn 25% (+2)

    Johnson 34% (-9) v Corbyn 29% (-)

    Osborne 21% (-18) v Corbyn 34% (+7)

    May 23% (n/a) v Corbyn 30% (n/a)

    The alternative was ‘Not sure’ in each case. Changes are from 17-18 Dec.

    YouGov also asked:

    Imagine there was a leadership contest in the Conservative party and these were the candidates. Imagining that you had a vote in the contest, who would you vote for?

    Boris Johnson 25% (56) [51]

    Theresa May 8% (18) [20]

    George Osborne 4% (9) [17]

    Michael Gove 4% (9) [9]

    Sajid Javid 2% (4) [1]

    Nicky Morgan 1% (2) [1]

    Would not vote 30% (-) [-]

    Don’t know 25% (-) [-]

    () excluding DK/WNV, [] current Con voters excluding DK/WNV. Johnson is clearly the favourite, but slightly less so among Conservative voters. In part this is because UKIP voters are most heavily for him, presumably because of his support for Brexit (Gove also benefits from this). Whether the UKIP fans would switch their votes is another matter of course. Despite the predictions UKIP’s vote has proved very solid even before its current boost from the EU campaigning.

  39. COLIN

    The Supreme Court yesterday refused an application by Eclipse35 to appeal HMRC’s successful legal actions against it.

    This is why I keep on pointing out to all those insisting on a difference between tax ‘evasion’ and tax ‘avoidance’, how foolish they are. No doubt those investing in the scheme were assured that it was avoidance and, as some who have commented here seem to think, practically a human right. They’re now paying for their naivety.

    As to why the Government isn’t trumpeting it, the reason is that the crackdown on these schemes started under Labour and it’s taken this long to get through to the Supreme Court. The original Tribunal hearing was in Summer 2011 and the way these things work, the action would have started years before that. So any bragging will be answered with “That was us” and a demand for Osborne to crack down on a long list of other scams.

    Labour’s record on such tax dodges was actually pretty shameful, so shining the light on one of their successes would be foolish for the Tories. In addition the cutbacks in enforcement and chummy relationship with tax avoidance advisers are under increased attack from the current Labour Party (who can distance themselves from the way New Labour behaved exactly the same) as well as the SNP.

  40. LWVG

    “is there any evidence to suggest that if voters don’t see a recognisable local name on the ballot, they’ll not give the party the list vote?”

    Not that I know of, though it’s an interesting idea.

    My guess would be that few local candidates are recognisable anyway – with the exception of those with a national TV profile, or the more hard working sitting MSPs.

  41. Roger Scully has the details of the likeability of the leaders of the parties in Wales and (where appropriate) their UK ones.

    Carwyn Jones (4.7) and Leanne Wood (4.6) at the top.

    David Cameron (2.9) at the bottom.

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2016/04/14/other-welsh-political-barometer-findings-2-party-leaders/

  42. SOMERJOHN

    @”If Corbyn concentrates in his speech on building the positive case for the EU, from a left/centrist perspective, describing the EU we could help to build, then I think he could gain the moral high ground,”

    …………….and push Conservative fence sitters into the Leave camp ?

  43. ROGER MEXICO

    @” No doubt those investing in the scheme were assured that it was avoidance ”

    Of course-the scheme was devised to take advantage of tax breaks for investment in the “creative industries”.

    The Courts however spotted-and ruled-that no real & genuine Trade was involved. These “investments” had only one purpose-the generation of tax losses.

    I would strongly suggest that the subscribers knew this.

    Much Tax “Avoidance” only becomes Tax ” Evasion” if/when the Courts say that it is.

  44. I thought it would be interesting to look back (exactly) five years as there is often discussion as to whether Corbyn is doing ‘better’ than Miliband at the same stage of Parliament:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/today_uk_import/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-140411.pdf

    On the surface Labour isn’t polling anything like as well. The figure then were:

    Con 35%

    Lab 44%

    Lib Dem 10%

    UKIP 4%

    SNP/PC 3%

    Green 2%

    BNP 2%

    So a 9 point lead rather than 2. But, as it happens, the Best PM question was also asked as well:

    Cameron 35% Miliband 26%

    So Corbyn is actually doing better against Cameron than Miliband did – even before allowing for methodological changes that would go against Labour in between.

    What has happened with the VI, of course, is that in 2011 there were few alternatives and Labour was picking up all dissatisfied voters, especially from the Lib Dems. Now UKIP is riding high and the SNP has taken maybe 3 points from Labour.

  45. SYZYGY

    Nice we agree for once. –

  46. @ALUN009

    CATMANJEFF:

    “The power of R”
    Are you using a package for the EWMA charts? Or have you written your own script? I had a little look in CRAN for EWMA but I don’t see anything, so if you can point to an existing package I’d be grateful. Just to save me the work of writing and testing the formulae myself :)

    Something I don’t quite get:
    “The Conservatives still slipping, Labour and UKIP holding okay but not breaking through.”
    Where are all the votes going?! Is this not a zero-sum game? I haven’t seen polling evidence to show a significant rise in LD or Green support. Can we infer that Labour and Ukip are both mild beneficiaries of the Tories’ slide?

    EWMA charts are in the “qcc” package. Open R and enter:

    install.packages(“qcc”)

    Select the mirror and you are good to go.

    Essentailly the charts show the Conservatives have dropped below the lower limit for 3 data points, and pointed ‘south’ for quite a few previous to that. The slide seems to start shortly after announcing the Referendum.

    Labour have had a spell of improving, but that tailed off before breaching the upper limit.

    UKIP have been nowhere near breaching a limit, just meandering around.

    EWMA charts are very sensitive, so with the VI loss that would trigger a lower limit breach, spread between thinly over other named parties and minor parties, it could be hard to detect where it went to.

    That’s the best answer I’ve got :)

  47. Has anyone seen Corbyn’s ‘big speech’ on the EU yet? Apart from looking like a ventriloquist’s dummy, I’ve never seen or heard a better delivery in insincerity. Nobody is going to be fooled by that speech. Party management over principle, he’s a weasel, like the rest of them.

  48. @ALUN009

    I see above Roger pointed out the Conservatives have lost 2015 voters to DK/WNV.

    This feels about right. Perhaps there are a number of 2015 Conservative voters not happy with the Government stance on supporting ‘Remain’. That would tally with the slide starting just after DC announced the referendum and the Government’s position.

  49. Nice non-partisan effort Bert.

    ;-)

  50. CATMANJEFF

    “qcc package”
    Thanks very much. I’m a regular R user, so the installation won’t be any trouble at all. The brilliant thing about CRAN is that there are so many packages on there you could spend months just exploring all the lovely code. I keep dipping in every now & then and looking for new stuff and I’m always amazed at the volume and depth of esoterica.

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