YouGov have published new polls in both Scotland and Wales in the last couple of days. Taking Wales first, topline voting intention figures for the Welsh Assembly are CON 19%(-3), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 17%(+2), Plaid 21%(nc) for the constituency vote and CON 20%(-2), LAB 31%(nc), LDEM 5%(nc), UKIP 16%(+2), Plaid 20%(-2) for the regional vote. The Conservatives are down a little, reflecting their drop in the national polls. Roger Scully’s detailled write up is here and the tabs are here.

The YouGov Scottish poll for the Times has topline figures of SNP 50%(+1), LAB 21%(+2), CON 18%(-1), LDEM 5%(-1) for the constituency vote, and SNP 45%(+2), LAB 19%(+2), CON 18%(-1), GRN 8%(nc), LDEM 5%(nc) in the regional vote. The last couple of YouGov Scottish polls had the Conservatives ahead of Labour on one vote or the other. Today’s poll had Labour back ahead, though they are still extremely close (closer than in most other Scottish polls). The rest of the poll had various questions on leadership, particularly on whether people think Ruth Davidson or Kezia Dugdale would make a better leader of the opposition – Ruth Davidson polled better, but her comparatively positive personal ratings are clearly not translating into much support for the Scottish Tories. Full tabs are here.

Finally today we got ICM’s weekly EU referendum tracker, with topline figures of REMAIN 42%, LEAVE 45%. Full tabs are here


178 Responses to “YouGov Scottish and Welsh polls”

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  1. CATMANJEFF

    My feeling as well, on the Tory loss to DK & WNV.

  2. @ALUN009

    I’ve learning R for about a year. I love it.

    It’s so flexible and open, I wrote to the developer of one package, as the data output didn’t quite match the manuals for the Automotive industry MSA (measure system analysis) – my day job.

    The developer got back, asked for details, corrected the package and even gave me a named credit on the updated package.

    Nice people.

    (PSST Carfrew….the open-source people are lovely…)

    :)

  3. CMJ:
    “the open-source people are lovely”

    And they contribute MASSIVELY to global productivity. I’m a developer too. Built a few packages. Not pushed anything to CRAN yet as I’ve yet to get my head fully around the testing regime, but R is my day job, all day every day :)

    Vote Hadley!

  4. Roger Mexico

    It seems a bit disingenuous to say that Corbyn’s doing better than Miliband in the ‘best PM’ stakes when it looks as though the smaller net advantage is because Cameron is less highly rated. It is interesting that his deficit to Cameron’s likely successors is relatively modest, but I find the data for this sort of question difficult to interpret as I’ve haven’t really followed them. I just have the impression that sitting PMs tend to come out best (was this still true in the run up to 1997?) and that good ratings seem to be associated with a high profile.

    Corbyn vs. Johnson would present voters with a very striking contrast in leadership style. Not too difficult to envisage a context in which a low key, ‘authentic’, bloke-next-door style has more voter appeal than Johnson’s ‘loveable’ isn’t-having-your-cake-and-eating-it-fun? rogue. Johnson can give the impression that he’s never had to try very hard for anything and that annoys a lot of people, regardless of context.

  5. @Roger Mexico
    ‘So a 9 point lead rather than 2.’
    YouGov is now giving Labour a 3 point lead – ie 34 to 31. Labour’s collapse in Scotland will not have dented their GB vote share by more than 2% .

  6. Afternoon folks. I wonder whether the hypothetical Corbyn vs AN Other matchups are that relevant for 2020 (to be honest, I wonder whether the polls showing Labour on 34% is that relevant either, but I can accept it as a legitimate snapshot). It reminds me of the US elections and the putative matchups between Clinton/Sanders vs Trump/Cruz/Kasich. Kasich does better than either Trump or Cruz – beating Clinton and being within a couple of points of Sanders. However, in the primaries themselves, he’s only sitting on 20%, and his only chance of being nominated is via a contested convention and changes in the RNC rules and probably amidst a very angry and bitter Donald Trump with his large group of supporters. In that instance, it’s tricky to see Kasich as a viable candidate come November.

    At this moment, Boris would seem to be the most likely (simply on VI) – but he’ll still have to get through the Parliamentary Party – does he have 25%+ support, which he’d probably need to make the members’ ballot (unless there’s a change in the rules, of course). I still have this feeling that Theresa May would be a difficult candidate to defeat – experienced, perceived as competent, not too prone to unforced gaffes? There’s of course Gove and Osborne, but neither are really blessed with much natural warmth (not a criticism of their abilities, but we’ve a fairly personality-driven system at the moment, so it’s not to be misunderestimated, to quote another statesman).

    On the other hand, the leadership election could be three years away, which would give plenty of time for Justine Greening or Nicky Morgan or Stephen Crabb to show their credentials – who in 2001 would have thought that Cameron would be Tory leader by 2005?

  7. ‘On the other hand, the leadership election could be three years away, which would give plenty of time for Justine Greening or Nicky Morgan or Stephen Crabb to show their credentials – who in 2001 would have thought that Cameron would be Tory leader by 2005?’

    I find it difficult to imagine any from that trio emerging as serious contenders. None appear to have much personality or charisma – wet lettuce leaves come to mind!

  8. Whatever happens in 2020, the Tories will miss Cameron when he’s gone. Natural leaders do not grow on trees, and it took the Tories 15 years to find someone electable. It took Labour 20 plus years to do the same, and may well take them another 20 years to repeat that.

  9. @Graham

    Perhaps you could give us your top three list of Tory MPs with bags of personality and charisma?

    Or is it simply a non sequitur for you?

  10. Good evening all from Central London..

    GRAHAM

    “I find it difficult to imagine any from that trio emerging as serious contenders. None appear to have much personality or charisma – wet lettuce leaves come to mind!”
    __

    Iceberg lettuce, Lollo Rosso Lettuce and Frisee lettuce all have bags of personality and charisma and the money is on Frisee to become the next leader.

    Sorry I’m reading a leaked document from THE OTHER HOWARDS allotment. ;-)

  11. @ Neil A
    Jacob Rees- Mogg – Sarah Wollaston – Andrew Tyrie come to mind!

  12. If there was to be a contest soon then it looks like Boris Johnson but if the Conservatives follow their own script then it is much more complicated. There would almost certainly be a change of chancellor in the next year or so and whoever gets that job could change the dynamic. It could be Boris’s brother. We may well be in unknown unknowns territory.

  13. Allan Christie

    No your not, all my allotment documents have tripe security locks.

    :-)

    I suspect the next Tory leader will be somebody relatively new and fresh with voter appeal.

  14. Wales Poll

    The Lib Dems have no chance whatsoever of taking Cardiff Central, Labour will be doing very well if it can get at or around 28 – 29 seats

  15. THE OTHER HOWARD

    I’m not sure they will go for someone relatively new and fresh, I think they will go for experience and someone who can the party back together after the EU vote.

    My money is on Philip Hammond and seems to be a safe pair of hands for the Tories. Boris Johnson would be popular with Tory voters but if elected as leader then he would probably be in the same scenario as ole Corby in that the party members love him and his fellow MP’s despise him.

  16. @TOH

    Auto correct has all the best jokes.

  17. Allan, you misread the Conservative party. The MPs generally like Boris and the party in the country love him. He is also, in most respects, a party loyalist. He could certainly carry the party. Whether he could win the 2020 election is another matter entirely because much can happen before then.

  18. “I suspect the next Tory leader will be somebody relatively new and fresh with voter appeal.”

    Donald Trump!

    Peter.

  19. Whatever happens in the referendum, I suspect that the next Tory leader (and therefore next PM) will be a Brexiter.

  20. There should be a new Ipsos poll out soon on the EU, as I’ve just completed it. Some things were a bit strange, such as a list of about 20 possible things that might influence your decision, and sovereignty wasn’t on the list! The nearest was ‘the ability of the UK to make it’s own laws’. We already can to some extent, and sovereignty is much wider than that anyway.

  21. For those interested on ‘proper stats’ Radio 4’s’More or Less’ tomorrow will discuss the recent Muslim poll.

    BTW Our AW was Radio 4 This morning. Very good it was too !

  22. RMJ1

    Whoop’s I see what you mean! :-)

  23. re. Thoughts of the next Conservative leader as a ‘Brexiteer’.

    In the case of an EU out vote, presumably Daniel Hannan will have time on his hands. Maybe not this time, but perhaps ends up a role that enables positioning for next time? He seems to aim to cultivate the appearance of a “non-politician’s politician” while trying not to spill over into non-credible characature instead. A potential dark horse if he can get “accidentally” bumped into the race past the party hierarchy, a Conservative Corbyn?

  24. Correction

    For those interested in ‘proper stats’ Radio 4’s ’More or Less’ programme tomorrow will discuss the recent Muslim poll.

    BTW Our AW was Radio 4 this morning. Very good it was too !

  25. Catmanjeff –

    I may be on More or Less tomorrow too.

  26. Pete B – the option on “making our own laws” was probably supposed to encompass sovereignty. I would certainly always try to avoid using a word like sovereignty that respondents might not understand. It’s not good enough for a poll to be understood by a person of average intelligence and education. If you’ve got a representative sample, half of them should be of below average intelligence and education, and they need to be able to understand your questions too!

  27. AW
    Thanks for that. That’s what I thought. It was just that several of the categories were overlapping (there were several about immigration for instance). Perhaps there could have been one or two more about sovereignty. ‘The ability to negotiate our own trade agreements’ for instance.

  28. Liverpool coming back from the dead at the last minute in their Europa tie. Half an hour ago they were 3-1 behind, now they’ve finished 4-3 ahead. A lot of people happy in the pub. Should please the many, many Pool fans on the board…

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