ComRes published a new London poll yesterday. As with all the other recent London polling we’ve seen it puts Sadiq Khan in a relatively comfortable first place. First preference votes are KHAN 44%(+2), GOLDSMITH 37%(-2), PIDGEON 7%(+1), WHITTLE 5%(nc), BERRY 4%(-2), GALLOWAY 2%(+1). With second preferences reallocated it works out at KHAN 55%, GOLDSMITH 45%. Full tabs are here.

Looking at the detailed tabs three-quarters of people who voted Tory in 2015 say they’ll vote for Goldsmith, four-fifths of Labour’s 2015 vote say they’ll back Khan. At the general election London voted Labour by a substantial margin and they got a substantial swing in their favour, at the 2010 election Labour also outperfomed in London. It is becoming an increasingly Labour city. Boris managed to break that link and win despite being a Conservative, clearly winning votes from people who did not support the Conservative party (on the same day that Boris won re-election as mayor the Labour party easily won the election for the London Assembly). Thus far Goldsmith and Khan don’t really appear to be doing that, the vote is splitting largely along normal party lines and that should result in a win for Sadiq Khan.

Meanwhile we’ve had three new EU referendum polls since my last update. ICM and YouGov have both published polls conducted online and showing one point leads for REMAIN. ICM’s figures are REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 43%, DK 13% (full details here), YouGov’s are REMAIN 39%, LEAVE 38%, DK/WNV 23% (full details here).

There was also new ORB telephone poll for the Telegraph. This is a little more interesting – regular readers will remember the last ORB phone poll was the one showing a Leave lead, extremely unusual for a poll conducted by telephone. This poll shows a seven point lead for REMAIN (REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 44%, DK 5%) far more typical of other polls conducted by phone. Full tabs are here.


612 Responses to “Latest London and EU polls”

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  1. Good Evening from Bournemouth East, which used to be in Hampshire before the 1974 Maude changes.

    OLD NAT.
    Thanks for the poll figures. What do people think about the rather high-IMHO- Lib Dem figures?

    In terms of Cameron: I would be worried for his Referendum campaign, a unpopular leaders, as in 1978, do badly with a Referendum.

  2. You can all the aspiration in the world but without oportunity it will never be realised.

  3. Chris Lane

    :-)

    I agree with you. Zero seats does seem a tad high for the Lib-Dems.

  4. Although I would like the UK to stay in the EU, largely because I believe cooperation beats division any time, I think that there is a danger that England may be gradually becoming an unpleasant place to live. Suspicion and envy are not attractive things. Luckily I have options and I could easily live elsewhere but I would much rather the UK population pulled itself together and started to behave like grown ups. Those who cry “it’s not fair” would think it completely fair if they found they had an inheritance from an unknown rich uncle.

  5. Oh and in reply to the poster that said MPs had to make a paper tax return. They don’t, but they can if they want and unlike the rest of us, have up to 31st Jan to file it. Even less excuse for Corbyn’s late return.

  6. @CL1945

    “In terms of Cameron: I would be worried for his Referendum campaign, as unpopular leaders, as in 1978, do badly with a Referendum.”

    What if the leaders of both campaigns are unpopular?

  7. @RMJ

    “Those who cry “it’s not fair” would think it completely fair if they found they had an inheritance from an unknown rich uncle.”

    ————

    Nah, too cynical. Some might, but some wouldn’t. Equally, some like me have issues with the advantages of a public school education not being more widely available.

    And as already pointed out, envy is irrelevant in the context of whether something is fair or not. If one person gets away with tax and another person on similar earnings doesn’t, then absent of mitigating circumstances this is unfair regardless of how people feel about it.

    Similarly, if the needy receive less help because peeps avoid tax, this is an issue regardless of whether folk feel envious or not. People are unlikely to go “Oh, people feel envy therefore it’s OK if there’s less for the needy”.

  8. @KENTDALIAN

    “You can all the aspiration in the world but without oportunity it will never be realised.”

    —————

    True, but apparently as long as someone, somewhere, feels envy, we don’t have to worry about peeps having opportunity and stuff like that…

  9. @RMJ1

    “Although I would like the UK to stay in the EU, largely because I believe cooperation beats division any time, I think that there is a danger that England may be gradually becoming an unpleasant place to live. Suspicion and envy are not attractive things. Luckily I have options and I could easily live elsewhere but I would much rather the UK population pulled itself together and started to behave like grown ups. Those who cry “it’s not fair” would think it completely fair if they found they had an inheritance from an unknown rich uncle.”

    It’s not jealousy or envy. It’s just that many people are fed up of being taken for a ride. The price for the Great Recession has largely been paid by the working poor, the disabled and other voicess innocents. And then these people victims hear of large scale tax avoidance and in some cases evasion by many rich and powerful people, corporations and governments (remember the first target of the Panama Papers disclosure was Putin).

    Jealousy? Envy? No, people just want a bit of fairness in these tough times.

  10. Nice fresh thread available should you ever tire of this one :-)

  11. ROBERT, they do however pay other taxes.

  12. Having read the papers this morning, and seen much of yesterdays Parliamentary proceedings I am coming to the conclusion that it will do Cameron and the Tories little harm and may even work in their favour in the longer term. Labour are now clearly seen as not supporting aspiration and the desire of people to do things to help their children. Not I suggest a formula for getting the support of middle Britain.

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