Two new GB voting intention polls over the last couple of days. Opinium in the Observer had topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 32%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4% (full tabs are here). Meanwhile BMG released some new GB voting intention figures today: their toplines are CON 36%(-2), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 7%(+2), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 5%(nc), and full tabs are here.

The last few polls we had (from ICM, YouGov, ComRes and Ipsos MORI) all had Labour and the Conservatives within a few points of each other. Opinium show a very similar picture, but while BMG do show the Conservative lead falling a little, they’ve still got a five point lead. At first glance I considered whether this could be due to fieldwork dates – perhaps as the negative coverage of the budget and IDS’s resignation faded the Conservatives were recovering? It’s not that though, the Opinium fieldwork is actually considerably more recent that the BMG fieldwork, which took place over Easter. Perhaps it’s a methodological difference, or perhaps it’s just normal random sample error – looking at the broad picture across all the pollsters it still looks as if the gap between Conservatives and Labour has closed right up to a few points.

There was also a new Opinium poll on the London mayoral election. First round voting intention figures are KHAN 35%, GOLDSMITH 27%, WHITTLE 3%, PIDGEON 3%, BERRY 2%, GALLOWAY <1%, DON'T KNOW/WNV 30%. Without don't knows that would work out at Khan 49%, Goldsmith 39%, Whittle 4%, Pidgeon 4%, Berry 3%, Galloway 1% - a solid lead for Sadiq Khan. After reallocating second preferences and taking only those 10/10 certain to vote, Opinium's topline figures are KHAN 54%, GOLDSMITH 46%. Full tabs are here.


132 Responses to “Latest GB and London voting intentions”

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  1. UKIP still holding steady. That’s a bit of a surprise considering the infighting that’s been going on.

  2. via Mike Smithson

    ORB phone poll for Telegraph with changes on last month
    REMAIN: 51%+4
    LEAVE: 44% -5
    This brings ORB into broad line with other phone polls

  3. Number Cruncher defending his work with Populus on phone v online EU polls

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/04/matt-singh-responds-debate-around-polls-apart.html/

    “With respect to the online polls by ORB, which present a “hard” forced choice, the way to be certain of the effect of this would be a genuine apples-to-apples comparison, by prompting for a don’t know option while holding everything else constant – something which ORB has not yet done on a published poll. It is quite possible that doing so would show a lead for Leave.”

    It’ll be interesting to see whether ORB has changed their methodology at all – or if their previous poll was just an outlier.

  4. It’s very difficult to give any credence to any of these polls, isn’t it?

    We have no clue what the majority of those who actually vote will do in the referendum and certainly not in the general election, whenever that is.

    When we discuss the polls (the purpose of the site?) we are really now only discussing how wrong they are likely to be and guessing what the reasons might be.

  5. NickP

    Agreed about the UK GE in 2020. We have no clue as to what (if any) effect the EUref will have on it. GB polls may become interesting after the summer.

    On the EU polls, there are geeky (but interesting) questions on polling which might (or not) allow those polls for 2020 to become more accurate (or not) :-)

  6. NickP –
    It’s very difficult to see how we should give very much attention to your posting on here.

    The purpose of the site, as you so correctly surmise, is to discuss and assess the published polls. Your message is “there isn’t any point because they must all be wrong”.

    So – since you aren’t interested in their results – why ‘waste’ (in your opinion) your precious time posting on here?

    By the way, unless something goes dramatically wrong after the Referendum, the general election will be in May 2020.

  7. “NickP –
    It’s very difficult to see how we should give very much attention to your posting on here.”

    No need to do so. Just don’t.

    The election might be in 2020, but I would guess it will be some time before.

  8. By the way, that other Howard has already told us that Remain will win. And he is a lot more reliable than the pollsters.

  9. @Anthony

    “…perhaps as the negative coverage of the budget and IDS’s resignation faded the Conservatives were recovering”

    Might have been an unduly optimistic view anyway considering that the Tory lead had dropped from 8% to 5% in that BMG poll you are referring to.

    That said, these polls only show an insipid recovery from Labour and the narrowness of the current Tory lead appears to be entirely down to a sharp decline in the Tory VI. In other words, the game is now back on due to the Tories being relegated rather than Labour being promoted.

    Similarly, in Scotland, the Tories are competing with Labour on the basis of the collapse in Labour support as opposed to any real Tory recovery north of the border. SNP playing the Premiership while Labour and the Tories are getting it on in the Conference North!

  10. Nick P

    As to Howard’s predictions, you may care to pay attention to Jerome K. Jeromes’s cynicism about the ability of forecasters

    http://www.cleavebooks.co.uk/grol/jerome/3men05.htm

    The prophet we like is the old man who, on the particularly gloomy-looking morning of some day when we particularly want it to be fine, looks round the horizon with a particularly knowing eye, and says:

    “Oh no, sir, I think it will clear up all right. It will break all right enough, sir.”

    “Ah, he knows”, we say, as we wish him good-morning, and start off; “wonderful how these old fellows can tell!”

    And we feel an affection for that man which is not at all lessened by the circumstances of its not clearing up, but continuing to rain steadily all day.

  11. CB11

    “SNP playing the Premiership while Labour and the Tories are getting it on in the Conference North!”

    Or (more appropriately), neither SLab, SLD or Stories have managed to replicate the rise of Sevco (the club that replaced the collapsed Glasgow Rangers) which might succeed in crawling into the SPL next season.

  12. The interesting point with London Mayor polls historically is the degree to which three-quarters of those polled always seem to say they are pretty sure to turn out…and every time it is roughly half of what the polls suggest (only once in 4 elections has turnout been more than 40%).

    Another aspect of these elections in May, which is very little polled, is the Cinderella election of the London Assembly (barely covered anywhere, almost never mentioned in polling or commentary etc). It is like a little shadow or ghost that goes on unremarked other than by way of the odd throwaway obligatory few seconds on state radio and tv in the UK on programmes with small listening figures at a time of the day when life is at its lowest ebb. It was once explained to me by a tv journalist that they just do not how to make such an election sexy, so ignore it because of legal requirements to cover all those standing.

  13. What powers (if any) does the London Assembly have to provide checks and balances to the powers of the Mayor?

  14. To repeat part of my comment on Opinium from the previous thread, so as to show the changes on the previous time they asked:

    Con 33% (-2)

    Lab 32% (-)

    Lib Dem 5% (-)

    UKIP 17% (-)

    SNP 6% (-)

    PC 1% (-)

    Green 4% (+1)

    Other 2% (+1)

    ‘Changes’ are from figures calculated from cross-tabs on previous Opinium poll shown for EU Ref only (9-12 Feb), though given how little movement there is they seem plausible:

    http://ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/sites/ourinsight.opinium.co.uk/files/eu_membership_negotiations_tables.pdf

    Interestingly not only were the Feb VI figures not shown and unreported by the Observer, but the latest VI also seems to have gone unmentioned there. Anything that might contradict the Westminster Bubble anti-Corbyn narrative, in even the slightest way, must be ignored – even if you commissioned it.

    This is probably less conspiracy than groupthink – they ‘know’ it can’t be true, because all their fellow hacks say so. The last published Opinium was in December and showed Con 38%, Lab 30%, so that was OK.

    However what these figures emphasise is that if there has been a reduction of the Conservative lead, most of the movement happened before the Budget, not because of it (the ICM tie also predated it).

  15. @Pete B “UKIP still holding steady. That’s a bit of a surprise considering the infighting that’s been going on.”

    Why is that a surprise? The Tories are at each other’s throats over Europe and the Budget and the Labour PLP has been hopelessly split split since Corbyn was elected. The LibDems have been holed below the waterline and are struggling for any relevance or a voice.

    The only unified party at the moment is the SNP. And it shows North of the Border.

  16. @OldNat

    “Or (more appropriately), neither SLab, SLD or Stories have managed to replicate the rise of Sevco (the club that replaced the collapsed Glasgow Rangers) which might succeed in crawling into the SPL next season.”

    Are you revealing your Celtic colours here? Rangers are doing a bit more than “crawling” back into the SPL, aren’t they?

    Last football reference from me. I’m still grieving about the Villa’s calamitous season; and the agony still has another 6 games to unfold. We’re strictly Lib Dem in terms of political metaphors, maybe even Raving Loony Monster-esque!

    :-)

  17. ROGER MEXICO:
    “most of the movement happened before the Budget, not because of it”

    You’re ignoring the possibilitiy that the budget was *so* bad that it had a retroactive effect on the polls. Arf.

  18. In addition the VI figures, Opinium also asked about EU referendum intentions – which indeed did get written up in the Observer. As published these had headline figures of:

    Remain: 39%

    Leave 43%

    Don’t know 18%

    Will not say 1%

    Changes aren’t really relevant because the February poll was asked before negotiations had been completed and a referendum date announced. In addition it was asked after a number of related EU questions at the end of the survey[1]. As it happened those figures show very little movement from Feb, except a small increase in DKs when most other pollsters report a drop as you would expect as the date nears.

    Bizarrely Opinium asked likelihood to vote for the referendum and then didn’t bother to use it. VI was also asked and applied with a very strict filter of only using those who were 10/10 certain to vote in the VI quoted in my previous comment[2]. However everyone who gave any opinion was included in these EU figures, even though those with an LTV of 10/10 (68%) were not much more numerous than for GE VI (65%).

    Even odder including everyone means that the figures include those not qualified to vote in a UK general election (and hence the EU referendum) presumably EU nationals[3]. Admittedly it’s only 1% of the sample, but it shows a certain sloppiness.

    If you apply the same 10/10 filter to the referendum figures as for the GE, it increases the Leave lead:

    Remain: 41%

    Leave 49%

    Don’t know 10%

    Will not say *%

    But what filter you put on will make a difference. Those saying 7-9/10 are more pro-EU for example, partly a gender effect. Including them lessens that gap quite a bit.

    Opinium also asked a squeeze question to the undecided who remain high in numbers, even among those certain to vote. This splits 45% Remain, 28% Leave, which would make things very close with Leave leading by less than half a percentage point (48% to 47%)[4]. Though using only 10/10 LTV would widen this again to 53% Leave, 46% Remain.

    I don’t really expect to public to focus on this till the last month of the campaign[5], and as the above figures hint the undecided and the fearful are likely to move to Remain. It would probably need Scottish Labour levels of incompetence for Remain to lose, if it goes as referendums normally do. But I suppose anything could happen, especially if turnout is low.

    [1] It’s odd how concerned we were with question order during the Scottish referendum, making sure that pollsters only asked it first, so that other questions didn’t force a choice on respondents. There was evidence from that rogue SNP poll that order and ‘leading’ questions did distort things. And yet now the pollsters are all over the place with how they handle it (this Opinium was asked after VI and Party leaders) and no one seems to mind that they differ from each other and even previous polls from the same source.

    [2] Using as weaker and more plausible filter would not have made much difference to the headline VI figures in this poll (usually it helps Labour but not here).

    [3] I know Cameron has been packing the House of Lords with chums for years, but I don’t think it’s got to the stage where it’s statistically significant in GB-wide surveys.

    [4] I didn’t see this in the Observer either, though you’d think it would make a better story.

    [5] Admit it can you remember what the ‘concessions’ Cameron negotiated are?

  19. @Roger Mexico

    Very interesting….

    Some may say that Labour’s narrowing of the gap is “insipid”, but it is a narrowing of the gap nonetheless. The PLP has suddenly had the rug taken from under them…their argument about popularity of their leader vis-a-vis Cameron no longer hold sway, and with Labour almost drawing level with the Tories in party standings, the grumblings of the Blairites pale into insignificance in comparison to the 50-50 split in Tory MP lines over the Referendum.

    As June 23 approaches, expect more blood-letting in the Tory party, and that it will be interesting to see how that translates in the opinion polls. As it is, 2020 is still a long way away, but all this is good news for Corbyn….

  20. CB11

    Celtic colours? It’s still possible (though unlikely) that my team can beat them to the title.

    There’s more than Celtic fans that dislike the favoured treatment given to Sevco by the SPL!

    Like the use of tax havens by the 1%, it may have been legal, but definitely immoral. :-)

  21. “[5] Admit it can you remember what the ‘concessions’ Cameron negotiated are?”

    My recollection was that he asked for nothing and came back with less, just like when he confronted the Chinese about steel tariffs……

    On other matters, I had a quick skim through the internet looking at offshore property purchasing, and interestingly there are dozens of firms offering services in this area.

    One of them helpfully listed the pros and cons of buying property via offshore companies, with one of the drawbacks being that you had to trust the agents of the company you set up to ‘act on your instructions’.

    In other words, you set up an offshore body over which technically you have no authority and legally you are not connected to, in order to act on your behalf. Somehow, this is allowed, which I find quite baffling.

    For those who are interested, Private Eye have produced a map of offshore owned property in the UK – http://www.private-eye.co.uk/registry

    It also emerges that Assad’s right hand man is still buying London properties via Panamanian and BVI offshore companies – quite legally, as William Hague lobbied for him to be removed from the UK blacklist in 2014.

    Obviously a thoroughly decent chap.

  22. It seems to me the current polling shows whether the public want to have their finger nails or their toe nails pulled out.

    It’s all rather depressing, for all parties concerned.

  23. Still ‘Othering’ the SNP in polls, I see. Why? They have more than the Lib Dems nationally, have more MPs than Lib / UKIP and N. Ireland combined.

    UKIP made it out of Others, so it’s not a spreadsheet limitation thing. :))

  24. @Crossbat

    “Last football reference from me. I’m still grieving about the Villa’s calamitous season; and the agony still has another 6 games to unfold. We’re strictly Lib Dem in terms of political metaphors, maybe even Raving Loony Monster-esque!”

    ——–

    Said in the paper you might be getting Pearson…

  25. Villa’s relegation will surely be the most richly deserved in Premier League history.

  26. “Villa’s relegation will surely be the most richly deserved in Premier League history.”

    Anthony – ban this man Bert for life, immediately. I have never read such an outrageously partisan and gratuitously offensive post in all my time on UKPR.

    :-)

  27. @Carfew

    “Said in the paper you might be getting Pearson…”

    Should improve the club’s website video footage, especially if he brings his son along with him!

  28. Alec
    That Private Eye map is quite shocking. I looked around Birmingham, and there’s a massive amount of property foreign-owned, often in quite seedy areas. (No jokes about all of B’ham being seedy please!)

  29. @Bigfatron

    “it is in the interests of the owners of capital to blame something other than market forces for the failings that arise

    ———

    Ironically, capital tends to mess with the market anyway. If we had a free market absent of distortions there might be less of a problem.

    The fundamental issue, is the idea that competition will ensure a level playing field and business competing to produce the best product at the best price. Sometimes it does, but there’s no guarantee. You might get a heavily loaded playing field as the more successful then have more power to stack the deck.

    But another fundamental, is the appreciation, or otherwise, of the costs of losing an industry. Some people just go “OMG!!! We can’t afford to keep propping up a failing business!!”

    They just look at how much we are paying to keep it afloat. They don’t look at the FULL costs of losing it, considerable when you consider knock ons.

    Nor the long term gains of saving it, as pointed out by Guymonde earlier.

    They also don’t take into account how business might not be struggling because massively inefficient, but because of some external shock or distorting action by other states INTENDED to relieve us of our industry.

    Or of actions of our own governments that hamper our own business. Currently, we learn in the Times that steel suffered because of the energy policies of our governments going back years ramping up energy prices.

    Back in the days of the oil crisis, we got hit especially hard, not just because of things like VAT increases but the strikes over coal which turned the oil crisis into a full blown energy crisis.

    Knock ons abound. Ceding nuclear makes us reliant on others and then they can use that hegemony to pressure us to campaign against our own interests on tariffs!!

    Energy affects so many things, is too important to cede control. It is… Strategic!! Again, peeps get this with banking but amazingly, not with energy. (Which brings us back to Thorium…)

  30. @Crossbat

    Might even improve your club’s fortunes!!

    Step One: Hire Pearson

    Step Two: get rid of Pearson

    Step Three: win the league!! Look what’s happened to Leicester…

  31. “Anthony – ban this man Bert for life, immediately. I have never read such an outrageously partisan and gratuitously offensive post in all my time on UKPR.”

    —————

    Well, there was the time Colin tried to persuade me to forego the Gibson. And Statty thought I should make my own coffee!! But I’m over it now…

  32. “What powers (if any) does the London Assembly have to provide checks and balances to the powers of the Mayor?”

    It can ask him questions…..

    Oh and it can reject the budget, but only if it can manage a two-thirds majority.

    It’s a bit like scrutiny committees in local government, whose only purpose is to give backbench councillors something to do.

  33. John Chanin

    Thanks for the explanation.

  34. I read with interest up-thread the comments about the polling between Labour and the Conservatives.

    I have run the post GE VI for all polls through ‘R’, plotting them on an EMWA (see here: ht tps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EWMA_chart).

    The result is below:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDcVFZMHNCRlR4M28/view?usp=sharing

    The chart shows remarkable stability since the election, with no point breaching the upper or lower limits (ie indicating a major change) until recently.

    The Conservative VI dropped sharply on the poll taken on the 11th – 13th March this year. An EWMA requires a number of consecutive data points to indicate a change, so is quite robust at ignoring a rogue-looking one off poll. The last two data points have breached the lower control limit.

    The same poll (data point 59) showed an increase in Labour VI, but didn’t quite breach the upper limit. The last poll in the data set was Labour at 31%. I think another 33%+ poll would have tipped them over.

    Given that the budget was March 16th, the recent small changes of direction started before this, although it is quite possible the budget amplified the trend that was starting.

  35. @Carfew

    “Step One: Hire Pearson
    Step Two: get rid of Pearson
    Step Three: win the league!! Look what’s happened to Leicester…”

    A dastardly plan indeed, but the only slight hitch is that Leicester didn’t get relegated. If we’re to “win the league” it would have to be the Championship!

    As for “Bert”, I wonder if it’s Bert Millichip the old President of West Bromwich Ollbeyun? Mind you he’s dead but, then again, you never know these days. Maybe my tormentors will pursue me from beyond the grave, rather like cyber-zombies.

    :-)

  36. CMJ
    Very interesting analysis. I wonder what’s caused it? Could it be because of Tory disunity over Europe, or maybe pre-Budget leaks? Probably as usual it’s a combination of factors plus general angst.

  37. I thought he was called “Bert the Inert” before his death.

  38. @Pete B

    When I did a HNC in Business Studies many moons ago, one core subject was marketing,

    (I would add that the negative preconceptions I had about marketing and marketeers were entirely proven to be justified).

    Anyhow, there was a saying that half of marketing doesn’t work, the only problem is you don’t know which half.

    I think politics is much the same. Sometime a small number of small factors build into a really strong negative, and the big single things you would have thought changed people’s ideas of political parties prove to dissipate into nothing.

    I blame them human beings.

    Funny old things.

  39. CMJ
    Agreed. IDS’s resignation passed almost entirely unnoticed by voters outside the Westminster bubble, for instance. Or at least it had no discernible effect on the polls.

  40. That’s funny.

    Literally while doing some polling analysis, TNS called me.

    They are polling on how people feel about the Government, the EU, recall of an EU story in the past month and whether this story has changed my view of the EU.

  41. Last one folks….the EWMA updated with the last polls added.

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDX0NoZGhnNEZIWFU/view?usp=sharing

  42. Just to go back to John Chanin’s post at 3.16

    You are right in describing most local government scrutiny committees as simply jobs for the backbenchers. It need not be so but it requires a degree of trust between the ruling party and the opposition who should, in normal circumstances, chair the majority of these committees. It also requires scrutiny members to do real research which many are incapable of doing.

    Having been involved from the beginning, I am very disappointed by the way scrutiny has developed – or not developed – because councillors are more interested in the party than the people. It’s no wonder so few people vote.

  43. @Catman

    Bill Hicks on Advertising and Marketing…

    http://youtu.be/aMN8REGJXa

  44. RMJ1:
    “councillors are more interested in the party than the people. It’s no wonder so few people vote.”

    Interesting that you are putting forward the notion that people don’t vote because of the perceived lack of competence of councillors who are members of parties. I would have said it was more down to awareness, knowledge and reporting that we see low turnouts. I think many people wouldn’t even know there was a local election on apart from receciveing a polling card a few weeks before, with plenty of time before polling day to forget it ever arrived.

  45. … and for my birthday I hope I will be “receciveing” a dictionary.

  46. @Crossbat

    “A dastardly plan indeed, but the only slight hitch is that Leicester didn’t get relegated. If we’re to “win the league” it would have to be the Championship!”

    ——–

    Now you should know by now that being a systems kinda guy, I like to cover all the bases where possible. Leicester DID get relegated. From the Championship even. Then they hired Pearson and wound up in the Prem…

  47. @Carfrew

    Bill Hicks is my favourite comedian ever. He took comedy into philosophy.

    I so wish he was alive in our political era. He would be in his element.

  48. @CATMANJEFF:
    “I so wish he was alive in our political era. He would be in his element.”

    Wasn’t he also a bit of an oddball conspiracy theorist? If so, he’d probably fit in really well with Ukip…

    /trolling

  49. “I think many people wouldn’t even know there was a local election on apart from receciveing a polling card a few weeks before, with plenty of time before polling day to forget it ever arrived.”

    ———–

    If it mattered to them enough they’d make the effort to know, though.

    Funny, I was thinking of doing a post about peeps being politically concerned but not wanting to get involved with parties, following on from Catman and Guymonde’s chat a little while ago about the difficulty of getting new activists despite the new found enthusiasm for Corbyn etc., as a possible means of explaining it.

    The party thing bothers me too. I don’t mind the idea of getting involved with stuff of benefit to peeps but would rather bypass all the political bollox.

    (Like, if a councillor joins the governing body of your school, your heart may sink because everything they do may well be with some political campaign in mind).

    I think RMJ has a point about peeps being dissatisfied by peeps putting parties first etc.

    If your interest in politics is to generally make stuff better for peeps, it doesn’t really help to see people being tribal and putting parties first ahead of what’s right.

  50. @CATMANJEFF

    “Bill Hicks is my favourite comedian ever. He took comedy into philosophy.
    I so wish he was alive in our political era. He would be in his element.”

    ———

    Someone I know met Bill, interviewed him for a local newsletter thingy. He was a huge fan too and got me into Bill’s comedy. Carlin has summat to say about advertising and marketing too.

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