Ipsos MORI have released the EU referendum figures from their monthly political monitor. Topline figures are REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%, DK/WNV 10%. Full details are here

There are quite a few differences in how MORI asked the question this month. Up until now they’ve been asking the referendum question using a split sample, with half the sample getting their long term tracker on if Britain should leave the EU, and half getting the actual referendum question, without any squeeze question or similar. This month they’ve switched onto a referendum footing – the only question is now the referendum question mentioning the date, and there’s a squeeze question to people who say they don’t know yet. This means that, while these figures are considerably tighter than MORI’s previous polling (last month they gave REMAIN an 18 point lead) we can’t tell to what extent there’s been a shift in opinion, and to what extent it’s down to asking the question differently.

MORI also asked how likely people were to vote in the referendum. At present they are not factoring this into their topline figures and are still looking into the best way to do it, but if they used the same approach as they do with their general election polling it would have reduced the REMAIN lead to just two points.

It’s worth noting that the big gulf between telephone and online polls on the EU referendum has narrowed significantly. In December and January the average REMAIN lead in telephone poll was twenty points, the average lead in online polls was zero; a towering gulf between the two modes. Polls this month have averaged a 2 point REMAIN lead in online polls, a 6 point REMAIN lead in phone polls. Even excluding the ORB phone poll that seemed completely out of line with all other telephone polls, the average of ComRes, MORI and Survation was 9 points. There’s still a significant contrast between online and phone polls on the topic… but a gap of seven points is far, far less of a gulf than a gap of twenty points!

UPDATE: I’ve corrected the original post – MORI are NOT prompting for “Undecided”, it’s still something respondents have to volunteer themselves. The increase in don’t knows is suddenly not so easily explained. Perhaps it’s the effect of mentioning that the referendum isn’t until June that’s making people more willing to say they haven’t decided yet.


54 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – REMAIN 49%, LEAVE 41%”

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  1. @TOH :

    Personally as an Englishman hovering around 40 who works and socializes in a European context I feel I have far far far more culturally in common with younger Europeans from any other EU country than with culturally conservative English pensioners who’d like to make us all jump to their tune and still live in the afterglow of the 1950’s.

    There is an enormous generational divide in this country today spanning who the economy and the state is geared towards, liberal vs conservative cultural values and perceptions of what this country is and should be (hint: for us WW2 doesn’t figure even a little bit).

  2. @ James E. Currently Oddschecker shows 89% of betting is placed on leaving.

  3. @DOMG,

    I think the vast majority of British voters aged around 40 don’t work or socialize in a European context. Unless you count holidays in Spain and Greece, where they go to socialize with other Britons, take drugs supplied by British dealers, drink in British pubs and eat British food.

    There is of course a generational gap in this country, along with all sorts of other gaps (between the home nations, between North and South, between rural, semi-urban and urban, between rich and poor, etc). I don’t really think it matters though. On the key issues where there might be a genuine divide (for example same-sex marriage) the new generation have managed to bring in change.

    And as for WW2. The creation and expansion of what is now the EU was because of that event and not despite it. I don’t think Leavers, of whatever age, are influenced by “the Jerries bombed our chipshop” sentiments. I think they are primarily influenced by the 1.6m EU citizens that, according to a particular daily newspaper have moved here in the last 9 years.

    In fact, I suspect the distance in time from the war, and the belief that Europe is now an inherently peaceful and unwarlike place, may be a factor in loosening the EU’s grip on the public imagination. Whatever the dire consequences of leaving the EU (as expressed by pro-Remain cabinet ministers) I don’t think anyone thinks that being invaded by a hostile European power is one of them.

  4. @ Mikey
    “Currently Oddschecker shows 89% of betting is placed on leaving.”

    No, it’s 44.7% for leaving and 55.3% for Remain. It’s moved by just 0.1% since yesterday.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/referendum-on-eu-membership-result

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