Following the MORI poll earlier today, there is also a fresh ComRes voting intention poll and a new Survation EU referendum poll.

ComRes for the Daily Mail is in line with what we’ve seen already in the YouGov, ICM and MORI polls – the Conservative lead has collapsed. Topline figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 35%(+4), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 9%(-3). The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday, at the same time as IDS’s resignation. Tabs are here

Meanwhile a new Survation EU referendum poll has topline figures of REMAIN 46%(-2), LEAVE 35%(+2), DON’T KNOW 19%(nc). Fieldwork was again at the end of last week (so before the Belgium bombings) and changes are since February. The poll was conducted by telephone, so in this case the robust Remain lead in telephone polls remains mostly undiminished. Full tabs for that are here


195 Responses to “ComRes/Daily Mail – CON 37, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 9”

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  1. Carfrew

    If you want more evidence here’s something from a contemporary:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100256418/margaret-thatcher-didnt-invent-mr-whippy/

    what I thought most interesting was that her fellow scientist pointed out that her involvement was felt not to be permanent:

    He said that, contrary to the press reports, she had not made much of a contribution to Lyons: “I feel almost certain that she was given the job as a sort of a sinecure because she needed to be London-based, in order to nurture her political ambitions.”

    We tend to think that make-work jobs for aspiring politicians in think-tanks and so on are a relatively new development, but they’ve gone on for a long time and were seen as a way of ‘friendly’ companies supporting aspiring Conservative politicians[1] and so ingratiating themselves with the Party and its future leaders. John Major’s banking ‘career’ was similar – mainly acting as a ‘liaison’ between his employer and the Party. Trade unions performed (and perform) the same function for Labour of course.

    [1] Before Rugby Union became honestly professionalised the same sort of thing happened with leading players.

  2. @Roger

    Yes, there’s nothing definitive in that carefully-worded account that says she didn’t contribute anything to the work on ice cream. It possibly challenges (in a single word response) whether she made discoveries, but we don’t get the question properly quoted, and she could still have been assisting with someone else’s discoveries.

  3. @Roger

    But it’s funny these peeps researching this pressing issue. Now if she’d done summat useful on Thorium…

  4. @Oldnat

    “Constituency VI of oldies (2015 W/M in brackets)

    SNP 43% (39%)
    Con 28% (24%)
    Lab 19% (22%)”

    Had a peek at a Survation/Sunday Post poll from April 2014 (trying to pick a date midterm and before complete indyref polarisation).

    SNP 41.5%
    Lab 25.4%
    Con 21.4%

    Given that older people (traditionally) tend not to switch their vote so readily, and given that many of the older generation in Scotland will have been polarised by the 70s and 80s, I’m less inclined to believe they are switching from Lab to Con, but I suppose anything is possible.

    It might just be a demographic thing due to life expectancy / lifestyle. More likely, sampling and/or MoE.

  5. Election 1966 showing all day on The Parliament Channel for anyone who’s interested. My Bank Holiday plan has just been decided.

  6. However you look at it, a Labour Party led by Corbyn is narrowing the gap on the Tories….

  7. @ NEIL A
    Sarah Woollaston is wonderful, but not really reflective of the bulk of Tory party thinking. I think if you’re looking for a dark horse female candidate it’s probably Priti Patel.

    An Asian to lead the Tory party? Do you want the 1922 Committee to all die of heart attacks? Britain is not ready for a non-white Prime Minister any time soon…certainly not in my lifetime.

  8. @ CHRISLANE1945

    “The last week in The Commons is proving a turning point, I believe, and Tom Watson is one to watch, I think, as a political nemesis for Corbyn.”

    I disagree…in the end, Corbyn’s replacement will be chosen by the Labour Party membership, and that membership has changed so much that there’s no way Watson will win a succession campaign against, say, John McDonnell. The only successor to Corbyn will be someone who has similar views to him, so the Blairites need to either get used to the new (old) Labour Party, or move out and either form a new party, or join the Tories.

  9. Mikey
    “Unless Labour can win back a significant number of seats North of the border it will be incredibly difficult to win an overall majority.”

    You’re assuming Scotland will still be a part of the UK after the EU referendum….

    If England votes Leave, and Scotland votes Remain, expect another Scottish independence referendum soon.

  10. CANDY
    Anecdote: I don’t think the Remain side can take the ethnic minority vote for granted in the EU ref. I was talking at work to someone of South Asian descent, who is a normal liberal lefty (anti-Iraq, war anti-Syria war etc). And they’re voting Leave. This is because she thinks the Eastern Europeans are racists (has actually experienced some racism, plus was also upset by catching an eastern european relieving himself into a neighbours hedge, despite there being a pub round the corner). Anyway she’s been stewing silently about this for years and feels this is her one and only chance to do something about it.

    ——————————————————————

    That sounds like you could’ve been talking to my cousin in Sevenoaks…as a member of an ethnic minority myself, I think I’m stating the obvious when I say that BME voters are probably just as divided on the issue as white voters are. I will be voting Remain, but I’m sure my cousin will be voting to Leave…we don’t talk politics when we meet up for lunch, as we did yesterday!

  11. Michael Siva

    “If England votes Leave, and Scotland votes Remain, expect another Scottish independence referendum soon”

    Why would they do that with oil at less than 40$ a barrel. I’m sure they will threaten that in the run up to the EU referendum but I cannot see them doing it.

  12. Michael Siva

    Sorry , my mistake oil is currently about 41.5$ a barrel, but my point holds.

  13. And do you think the oil price is going to stay that low forever? I have never seen a petrol station go out of business….

    The oil had fallen to $28 a barrel, but has in fact gone up to $40 a barrel recently. The supermarket petrol stations, which proudly declared that they were selling petrol for under £1 a litre in December, are now selling above that price, as I discovered when I went to fill my tank on Friday.

    The SNP have given numerous warnings, via Nicola Sturgeon and Angus Robertson. It would be unwise for English voters to ignore them….

  14. 1966 GE Is fantastic to watch

  15. @Michael

    I agree that oil prices won’t stay low forever. They’ll rise eventually. And then fall again. And then rise again.. etc. That being the danger of pinning one’s hopes on a commodity economy.

    So far as petrol stations going out of business, you may have missed it but many, many of them have closed. My local one, of which I have some knowledge as we are acquaintances of the family that owned it, closed down as a petrol station and became a valeting business/car wash – the profit margins for that (although not great) are better than the almost exactly zero profit a small petrol station can make.

  16. MICHAELSIVA

    Hello to you.
    The Labour MP’s may only put forward one candidate

  17. @ Michael Siva

    Of course there could be another independence referendum but the SNP can’t just decide to hold one when it suits. There would need to be agreement with Westminster as to if and when it was held. It certainly will not be happening any time before the next General Election so my point stands.

  18. @MICHAEL SIVA

    “And do you think the oil price is going to stay that low forever? I have never seen a petrol station go out of business….”

    ——–

    Wow, are you serious? Two went out of business a mile up the road from me. One is now a dry cleaners, the other is a coffee shop/book club thing I visited a couple of days ago before going to see a film (“High Rise”)

  19. @ STAT GEEK

    Have you considered that the indyreferendum drew long time absentee voters back to casting a ballot and that as a result the increase in turnout has shifted the proportions of who is voting for which parties?.

    And/or as determined by the 2009 Elections BC study there has been a change in who is voting, with disillusioned Labour voters preparing to stay home and enlivened Conservative voters coming out to vote.

    I know a Scottish aquaintance in Kaslo, where I live, who says some members of her family have not voted for years but are coming out to support the SNP because they now believe that voting will make a difference – in getting rid of the “English” yolk.

    It would therefore be interesting to ask a question of Scottish voters as to whether they have voted regularly, thus determining if there is a difference in voting values between those who have been intermittent voters or not voted at all before the indyreferendum..

  20. Michael Siva

    ” It would be unwise for English voters to ignore them….”

    You forget that a lot of English voters would not care if Scotland had another referendum, but Mikey’s point is very valid. It would be most unlikely before the next GE.

  21. MICHEAL SIVA

    @” Britain is not ready for a non-white Prime Minister any time soon…certainly not in my lifetime.”

    Evidence?-and what do you mean by “ready” ?

  22. @Andy Shadrack

    ” in getting rid of the “English” yolk.”

    Yes, Scotland will eggsit the Union. sorry

  23. “Yes, Scotland will eggsit the Union. sorry”

    —————

    Well of course, they want rid of perfidious Albumen…

  24. “Yes, Scotland will eggsit the Union. sorry”

    Not so sure – Indeyref2 could be another “scramble” for votes.

  25. @Andy Shadrack

    “I know a Scottish aquaintance in Kaslo, where I live, who says some members of her family have not voted for years but are coming out to support the SNP because they now believe that voting will make a difference – in getting rid of the “English” yolk.”

    Sounds a bit hearsay-ish.

    Many voters switched from Labour to SNP on the back of the referendum result. The polls showed a big shift just before and another just after to basically flip the 35% / 25% VI from Lab to SNP, and later all parties leaked a little VI to the SNP as the 2015 election came along.

    There are many reasons. Wesminster disillusion. Media diatribe. Party politics. My own personal journey started on a completely unrelated subject that highlighted to me that the political establishment make decisions on money before peoples’ lives, and the media generally trot out the bull with little fair scrutiny (i.e. they don’t scutinise some, but they scrutinise others to the point of blatent lies).

    Here’s one for today:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-one-hundred-and-ten/

  26. Statgeek

    I’m not sure it’s a good idea to complain about ‘blatant lies‘ and then link to Wings Over Scotland. He’s roughly as intellectually rigorous as Richard Littlejohn.

  27. “Yes, Scotland will eggsit the Union. sorry”

    I expect a plot is being hatched at this very moment.

  28. @Funtypippin

    “He’s roughly as intellectually rigorous as Richard Littlejohn.”

    My God, he must be bad! That’s like saying someone is as honest as Robert Maxwell!

    :-)

  29. @Funty

    Play the ball. Your objective analysis of the linked article?

  30. @Statgeek

    It’s interesting that you point to media and the establishment as being contibutory factors in your move to the SNP, then quote from the DM, which likes to see itself as a middle class rebel in a constant tussle with an upper class establishment.

  31. “Scotland will eggsit the Union”

    We’re tired of being under the English yoke…

  32. @ Statgeek

    I don’t think the media is here or there in this respect (but probably in general too). So, this is not an argument (and DM is definitely not an argument).

    Individuals, Scots, politically affiliated Scots, Parties, etc can think what they want, and as far as I’m concerned can have an independence or union referendum as often as they want (there is a quite complex affiliation, so I don’t really care about “once in a generation” thing – I don’t think the utilitarian principle could be applied here).

    If Scotland goes independent, Merseyside may join (it’s a joke, but not quite if you search the Liverpool Echo) – does Scotland have to have a referendum of accepting them and can they reject a positive Merseyside referendum?

    While I do have an issue about nationalist parties (OldNat tried to contextualise it for me in April-May), I can see how the SNP streams the streams into a river. So why is the argument you presented (I’m fighting with the iPad as I greatly respect your commentaries on polling).

  33. @CB
    ‘I never ever felt justice was done back then but, as they say, it’s all water under the bridge now and, in some cases, there are Cabinet careers to pursue now.’

    But surely there is nothing to prevent the issue being revisited by political opponents in their own constituencies! Re-Crabb- the figures you quote have been appearing on Facebook sites in his Preseli Pembrokeshire constituency.

  34. RAF
    “the DM, which likes to see itself as a middle class rebel in a constant tussle with an upper class establishment.”

    Claiming to be anti-establishment is starting to become quite fashionable in establishment circles.

  35. @ COLIN

    @” Britain is not ready for a non-white Prime Minister any time soon…certainly not in my lifetime.”
    Evidence?-and what do you mean by “ready” ?

    —————————————————————–

    I thought that would’ve been pretty clear…do you really think Britain wants a non-white prime minister? At least USA have elected Obama more than once…I can’t see a similar circumstance being repeated here in the UK.

    On the subject of petrol stations, I don’t I was clear enough…any time a petrol station has closed in my area, it’s been replaced by another one. I haven’t had the experience that you have, Carfrew, of a petrol station being replaced by a dry cleaners.

    And the price of petrol is going back up again at the pumps…any economy that is based on oil won’t suffer in the long run. Once OPEC gets their act together, and cuts back on production, then prices will go back up even more. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc are far from destitute….

  36. @CHRISLANE1945

    “The Labour MP’s may only put forward one candidate”

    And hello to you too…the debate on this site is so much more civil than it is in the comments sections in certain newspapers, so forgive me if I forget to extend greetings.

    Okay, I think it’s virtually certain that Corbyn will lead Labour into the 2020 GE, despite hopeful speculation from the Tory press that he will be challenged before then. Let’s then assume that Labour loses that election, and Corbyn steps down.

    Then, John McDonnell announces he will run for leader. Even if Tom Watson is the only candidate running against him, McDonnell is favourite to win, because of the new composition of the Labour Party. It’s just wishful thinking that Labour will return to its Blairite days….

  37. MICHAEL SILVA

    @”I thought that would’ve been pretty clear…do you really think Britain wants a non-white prime minister? ”

    By “evidence” , I meant a reputable Poll of Public opinion-What you or I think isn’t an indicator of opinion in “Britain”.

  38. MICHAEL SILVA

    @”At least USA have elected Obama more than once…I can’t see a similar circumstance being repeated here in the UK.”

    Nor can I -the UK electorate don’t vote for Presidents-or Prime Ministers.

    I think you might be confusing the franchise of the UK public at large, and that of Members of political parties.

  39. Priti Patel is very unlikely to be Tory leader. It’s not because she’s a woman, or Asian, but simply that she doesn’t have the apparent drive or ability. It could happen, but I would be extremely surprised.

    I would say “And she’s got an annoying voice”, but I can think of at least one female Tory leader who had some successes despite having a really annoying voice.

  40. Just read the Mathew Parris article on Boris – wow probably the most brutal character assassination of a Politician I have seen, made all the more so as it appears to be based in truth.
    But still think it is unlikely to effect his popularity in the polls

  41. @Michael Siva

    “I don’t I was clear enough…any time a petrol station has closed in my area, it’s been replaced by another one. I haven’t had the experience that you have, Carfrew, of a petrol station being replaced by a dry cleaners.”

    ———-

    Sure, we can get you were describing your own experience. It’s just that it was called into play in the context of establishing your idea about petrol prices, in which case there is little point to it or likely impact on prices unless you think your experience is evidence of something more general.

    (One of them became a fancy dress outlet, thus losing the 24 hour shop, a minor disaster in the days when I smoked, and encouraging peeps to get quite tanked up on pub crawls near me in fancy dress. There are only so many times one can suffer some random drunk guy dressed as a chicken, especially when one is trying to chill. But it has thankfully been turned into a coffee shop now…

    The dry cleaners was handy though…)

  42. Yep, handy info. Dave. Especially…

    “How 75% of petrol stations have closed in 40 years forcing drivers to travel further and pay more to fill up tanks

    Just 8,600 forecourts left in the UK, down from 37,500 in 1970”

    It’s so bad ministers have commissioned a study…

  43. @Michael Siva – as has been definitively pointed out [this is what is so great about UKPR – it’s what’s known as a SOMSBD – Self Organising Multi Source [email protected]!t Detector] you are mistaken when it comes to the point about garage closures, but wrong I suspect because you’ve misunderstood the economic of oil. Retail petrol sales are affected by many things, and the loss of independents is probably the biggest cause of closures, but is of limited relevance to polling.

    The bigger issue is the state income from oil and gas and how this affects the independence dynamic. Here, the critical point is that revenues have currently cllapsed, leaving a notional iScotland with a deficit three times larger than the UK as a whole. You’re absolutely correct in that prices will at some point surge, and for a while this could close the iScotland deficit.

    However, the SNP have been very vocal in their demands for a better tax regime for this sector, which basically means cutting the taxes and reversing Osborne’s increases from 2010/11. [There is a fair point that Osborne should shoulder some blame for the collapse, as he sought to extract more revenue from oil and made the fields less competitive]. The SNP’s demands in this regard mean that less revenue flows, even in the good years.

    Another vote now would raise very substantial fiscal questions that the SNP would be hard pressed to answer, and while future fiscal balances in iScotland could well improve, the cyclical nature of oil and gas and the need to provide a more lenient tax regime for the sector will still be difficult issues when assuring voters that independence would mean more money.

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