Following the MORI poll earlier today, there is also a fresh ComRes voting intention poll and a new Survation EU referendum poll.

ComRes for the Daily Mail is in line with what we’ve seen already in the YouGov, ICM and MORI polls – the Conservative lead has collapsed. Topline figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 35%(+4), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 9%(-3). The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday, at the same time as IDS’s resignation. Tabs are here

Meanwhile a new Survation EU referendum poll has topline figures of REMAIN 46%(-2), LEAVE 35%(+2), DON’T KNOW 19%(nc). Fieldwork was again at the end of last week (so before the Belgium bombings) and changes are since February. The poll was conducted by telephone, so in this case the robust Remain lead in telephone polls remains mostly undiminished. Full tabs for that are here


195 Responses to “ComRes/Daily Mail – CON 37, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 9”

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  1. @Neil A

    I think that Priti Patel would also be a ‘core vote only’ candidate.

    Although his politics are a long way from mine, I find Mr Gove quite affable. Priti comes with a strong ideological streak in my view, one that will attract her own tribe, but repel people from any other.

  2. Candy
    You are right about favourites being elected (not). Therefore a contender could be Sanjiv Javid. Working class, son of a bus driver, ethnic. His election would shoot the toff fox at least.(Although what relevance ones background has, has alwaysbeen quite beyond me, surely its about ability?)

  3. Bert
    BoJo won against Ken Livingston! A tired candidate who should have been put out to grass. Crikey if I’d still been living in London I would have been unable to hold my nose and vote for Ken.
    I fully concur with Colin’s views further up thread. And BoJo isn’t just another tof, he’s another Eton Bullingdon Tof.
    Whenever I’ve seen him on tv, being interviewed by Marr or in front of a select committee, he’s impossible to take seriously. And i suspect there are a few skeletons in the cupboard waiting to come out.
    But as a Labour supporter I say bring him on! I think seeing him cross swords with Corbyn would be fascinating.

  4. VALERIE

    @” I think seeing him cross swords with Corbyn would be fascinating.”

    It would-I would pay for tickets to that .

  5. ROBERT NEWARK

    @”Therefore a contender could be Sanjiv Javid. Working class, son of a bus driver, ethnic.”

    You missed out “Banker” -doesn’t worry me, but it would some.

    I used to agree about this chap-but have come to see him as blandness & vacuousness personified. Can you think of anything he has done of significance?

    Its Sajid Javid by the way.

  6. @kentdalian

    I think the dark horse candidate is Phillip Hammond.

  7. ‘A tired candidate who should have been put out to grass.’

    Lol remind you of anyone?

  8. @ Hireton

    Maybe but im not convinced. correct me if im wrong but hes come out in favour of Remain

    I read on one of the news sites earlier today ( can’t remember which one or I’d post the link ) that a majority of Tory MPs have now declared for Brexit. Add in the support for Leave amongst the party membership, and i think it’s most unlikely a Remainer will win the leadership.

    I mentioned Gove as, unlike Johnson, I understand he’s well regarded by all and seems to have avoided ruffling too many feathers whilst being on the right side of the most important argument from the point of view of the people who will vote in the leadership election.

    Whether he could would appeal to the wider electorate is of course another matter altogether, ….. but I can’t help thinking I’ve heard that one before somewhere else .

  9. O/T Found the following 1956 Eisenhower campaign ad on youtube:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF9PsMDjc8g

    It’s a whole world away from 2016.

  10. Bert
    Old certainly, a bit weary no doubt, but Corbyn’s campaign for the Labour leadership was anything but lacklustre. And I’ve never been a fan. Sure he’s appealed to the yoof, and I’m hoping this will lead to lots of young people delivering leaflets and fundraising, but I’m not convinced. I think it was a craze that might have passed.
    Cameron has the measure of Corbyn and can outwit him at the dispatch box. I’m waiting to see how Cameron’s successor,who ever it is, fares.

  11. VALERIE.
    Good Evening to you, and I am in full agreement with you about the yoof; they are not so keen, I think. at the campaigning, and in any case, I think that any Party needs to appeal to the whole social and regional spectrum.
    The last week in The Commons is proving a turning point, I believe, and Tom Watson is one to watch, I think, as a political nemesis for Corbyn.
    In terms of polls discussed above, I think that in 1993 Labour was well ahead, and very well ahead indeed when a new Labour leader rose. Blair, I think. Hi

  12. Good evening to you Chris. Is retirement getting nearer? Do you think the LibDems can recover? :-)

  13. Colin
    re Javid “Can you think of anything he has done of significance?”

    Well no but he wasn’t a SPAD and has real life experiences. Indeed, what had Cameron done before he was elected leader, or indeed, Thatcher?

    So he rose from the son of a bus driver immigrant to be an investment banker via a bog standard comprehensive, technical school & university. No silver spoons there. That’s pretty good example of social mobility as it should be.

    Apologies for the spelling, I was too lazy to look it up. Thanks for the correction.

  14. Crikey, the Tory tribe really is at war. Matthew Parris has made an astonishingly personal and vituperative attack on Boris Johnson in his Times column today, all the more powerful for ringing bells. Here’s a taste of some it: –

    “Incompetence is not funny. Policy vacuum is not funny. A careless disregard for the truth is not funny. Advising old mates planning to beat someone up is not funny. Abortions and gagging orders are not funny. Creeping ambition in a jester’s cap is not funny. Vacuity posing as merriment, cynicism posing as savviness, a wink and a smile covering for betrayal … these things are not funny.”

    Wow, and it goes on, even suggesting Johnson is guilty of homophobia. I’m no admirer of Parris, tending to find him a bit of a Tory toady, but this incredible tirade suggests that the knives are out and unlikely ever to go back into their scabbards.

  15. Round my way we have an abundance of new Lab members and I have yet to meet one who does not worship Jeremy. However, whilst some are young the majority are lapsed Labourites of old. I had a social recently where 13 from my ward turned up. One might have been under 50 if I was generous but he was the only one, and three live in sheltered accommodation for the elderly.
    As to doing ‘work’ I have not a single volunteer for canvassing or leafletting from around 80 new members (plus 40 registered supporters) in my ward.
    I don’t know whether they are not interested in winning, or whether they think Sadiq Khan is not Corbynista enough.
    I’m afraid I think Boris (and to a lesser extent Trump) are popular because they are celebs. Boris certainly had very little in the way of achievements to celebrate after his first term but he increased his share comfortably because (IMO) he had been promoted from B list celeb to A list because of all the photo-opps

  16. @Guymonde

    I am the Secretary for my local Green Party, including membership. The party covers about half a unitary authority.

    While membership has grown rapidly in recent times, like your experience, the number of activists hasn’t. The same old faces, all the time. I’ve sent newsletters and requests for feedback on a range of issues to all members and very little comes back. When I see them, I ask if they got the information, and they have but did not respond in any way.

    Has social media destroyed traditional activism? Are there lots of people out there who think that signing online petitions actually achieves anything? By what forms of magical, mystical powers do people think leaflets get to peoples’ homes?

    People get the Governments and democracy they deserve. If they don’t off their backsides, they will get very little.

    For me,

  17. Correction

    @Guymonde

    I am the Secretary for my local Green Party, including membership. The party covers about half a unitary authority.

    While membership has grown rapidly in recent times, like your experience, the number of activists hasn’t. The same old faces, all the time. I’ve sent newsletters and requests for feedback on a range of issues to all members and very little comes back. When I see them, I ask if they got the information, and they have but did not respond in any way.

    Has social media destroyed traditional activism? Are there lots of people out there who think that signing online petitions actually achieves anything? By what forms of magical, mystical powers do people think leaflets get to peoples’ homes?

    People get the Governments and democracy they deserve. If they don’t off their backsides, they will get very little.

  18. Papers tweeting that they have a “staggering” poll usually leads to disappointment. FWIW, the Sunday Post are saying –

    “Staggering Survation poll in Sunday_Post tomorrw reveals just how far scottish labour has slumped. Half reckon they’ll never govern again.”

  19. @Valerie & Colin

    ”I think seeing him cross swords with Corbyn would be fascinating.”

    “It would-I would pay for tickets to that”

    He should brush up on his Mandarin I reckon – then when Boris attacks with a Random Latin Phrase To Look Clever, he can hit back with some Chinese ;)

  20. @Oldnat

    That sounds like they have the Conservatives beating Labour.

  21. @AU

    Maybe he can read from Mao’s little book? ;)

  22. @CMJ,

    Or just the SNP with another record-breaking astronomical lead?

  23. CMJ

    No details yet, other than front page teaser which also has “Over 60s abandon Kezia & Co for SNP & Tories”.

    If Con are 2nd, then look for the “Tories have risen at Easter” headlines. :-)

  24. In the meantime, the liberals and social democrats seem to vote for an ageing man in the West (and perhaps over the water). I would have never thought there were so many of these people in the US. It is still Clinton’s game, yet …

    There are so many reasons for the SNP’s lead (and Labour’s misery) that it doesn’t really matter what Labour does (or doesn’t do). I’m trying to think of a European equivalent, but the only ones I could come up were Finnland and Estonia, but both are in a very different context. in anyway, could Scotland break up England too?

    I’m really agnostic about the polls. I have my own view about JC and especially the shadow chancellor, yet, here in the NW (metropolitan) it just doesn’t matter. It is brushed aside, and it’s all Labour as it is today (?). While I know that it is highly unrepresentative, it still leaves a kind of feeling – what if … Do we have shy Labour voters in the Midlands now?

    In any case, the Corbynites will have to develop an effective alternative to MSM (including the Mirror).

  25. “Well no but he wasn’t a SPAD and has real life experiences. Indeed, what had Cameron done before he was elected leader, or indeed, Thatcher?”

    ———–

    Dunno if Cameron had done Thatch. But didn’t Thatcher do the ice cream thing?

  26. ROBERT NEWARK

    @”Well no but he wasn’t a SPAD and has real life experiences.”

    Yes-that is a positive.

    But its not enough. The next Conservative Leader has to have wide public appeal-connectivity-a sense of purpose which most can identify with.

    I just don’t think Javid has it-a classic Conservative by the bootstraps effort out of poverty is an appealing thing for me-but not for everyone. Another dimension needs to be added which speaks of helping others .

  27. @Carfew

    “Dunno if Cameron had done Thatch. But didn’t Thatcher do the ice cream thing?”

    The grocer’s daughter done good by marrying a millionaire who, in the very early days of their marriage, financed her training to be a barrister. This romantic rags to riches story is classic Toryism and allowed Thatcher to become a role model for all ordinary housewives wrestling with household budgets and all the cares and worries that come with such hardships.

    A morality tale indeed, and one I’m sure Javid could teach us all too.

  28. Sunday Post/Survation poll was (as anticipated0 not very staggering – though it was decidedly odd!

    Poll was of over 60s only. STories strongest age group, and presumably designed to boost their profile. However, the crossbreaks by age group within that sample may be of interest,

    Constituency VI of oldies (2015 W/M in brackets)

    SNP 43% (39%)
    Con 28% (24%)
    Lab 19% (22%)
    LD 6% (not shown in rubbish graphic)

  29. @Oldnat

    If that was a ‘staggering’ story, I can only assume they have run out of ‘cats being stuck up trees’ and ‘the earth is round’ scoops.

  30. CMJ

    Though lots of us oldies do stagger a bit. :-)

  31. Interesting IPSO ruling on the Sun story about ‘“1 in 5 Brit Muslims’ sympathy for jihadis”.

    https://www.ipso.co.uk/IPSO/rulings/IPSOrulings-detail.html?id=331

    The complaint was upheld.

    Mind you, if IPSO get involved with every misleading interpretation of polls in the papers, they will be very busy……

  32. VALERIE.
    Good Easter Sunday afternoon to you.
    I think the Liberal Democrats seem a little high, still.
    Retirement comes closer, but with some work for extra dollars, I hope.

    I think that the Tory fights, CROSSBAT11, are very funny to witness; I cannot think of a time where the leaders were so inept across all parties, except in 1970-1975, possibly, and 1929-40, come to think of it.
    England, as GK Chesterton, will survive

  33. VALERIE.
    Good Easter Sunday afternoon to you.
    I think the Liberal Democrats seem a little high, still.
    Retirement comes closer, but with some work for extra dollars, I hope.

    I think that the Tory fights, CROSSBAT11, are very funny to witness; I cannot think of a time where the leaders were so inept across all parties, except in 1970-1975, possibly, and 1929-40, come to think of it.
    England, as GK Chesterton, will survive

  34. @Neil A

    “Maybe he can read from Mao’s little book? ;)”

    I was thinking more Lao Ts’e; the metaphorical imagery would double the confusion for everyone :)

  35. For a candidate who was not supposed to get this far Bernie Sanders now has 1.038 pledged delegates to Hilary Clinton’s 1,266 – giving her a lead of 228.

    The fact that Hilary has 469 “super delegates” to Bernie’s 29, will get extremely interesting if he actually pulls into the lead having now won 15 states to her 20.

  36. Chris Lane
    I cannot think of a time when the party leaders were more inept across all parties
    ———–
    That’s naughty Chris. You forgot to add ‘apart from the SNP. :-)

  37. Carfrew
    “Dunno if Cameron had done Thatch. But didn’t Thatcher do the ice cream thing?”

    I know you are a bit of a wag (humorous, not married to a footballer) but you will have to explain your comment as it goes over my head.

    Colin (re Javid)

    In that case I can’t think of anyone. They will have to hope that JC is still in charge of Labour in 2020.

  38. @Robert Newark

    Re: Thatcher and ice-cream…

    http://www.mrwhippyicecream.co.uk/the-history-of-ice-cream/

  39. @Robert Newark

    Soz, somehow copied the wrong link, meant to give this one…

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2013/04/08/margaret-thatcher-helped-invent-ice-cream-as-we-know-it/

  40. ROBERT NEWARK

    “I know you are a bit of a wag (humorous, not married to a footballer) but you will have to explain your comment as it goes over my head.”
    ————————————————————————————

    If I remember my grammar correctly, you’ve get a dangling modifier going on there:

    “Well no but he wasn’t a SPAD and has real life experiences. Indeed, what had Cameron done before he was elected leader, or indeed, Thatcher?”

    The way the sentence is structured, it reads as if Cameron is the subject and being elected leader and St Marge are both things he has ‘done’. So it makes it sound like Cameron has enjoyed intimate relations with Thatcher.

    You meant Thatch to be the subject as well. The correcter structure would have been:

    “Well no but he wasn’t a SPAD and has real life experiences. Indeed, what had Cameron, or Thatcher, done before they were elected leader?”

    That way they are both clearly subjects of the sentence, both doing the doing.

  41. Unless Labour can win back a significant number of seats North of the border it will be incredibly difficult to win an overall majority.
    It is not impossible though particular!y if the Tories remain split over Europe. The next Tory leader is going to face a difficult task uniting the party especially if we remain in the EU

  42. Carfrew
    Thanks, I never knew that.

    Lurgee, Thanks for the grammar lesson. A semi colon after leader would have also made my meaning clearer.

    Sometimes one is so concerned to progress ones point of view, that the grammar what was learned at skool gets forgot, like. Innit..

  43. ROBERT NEWARK

    I know the feeling-its not much better than Labour in many ways.

    There is one chap though -backgound a match for Javid-and then some. But as yet under the radar & untested.

    About to be tested however -he took over from IDS.

  44. He of whom Ruth Davidson apparently said, “If he stood, I don’t think I could vote for anyone else”.

  45. Robert Newark / Carfrew

    I’m afraid the Margaret Thatcher / ice cream thing is a complete myth:

    http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-margaret-thatcher-soft-serve-myth

    which is a pity as it was a great metaphor. Though it’s probably unfair on Thatcher who would have been horrified by some of the privatisations carried out by her successors, especially those involving security and the armed forces.

  46. @Roger

    Lol, the New Yorker article was referenced in the Washington post link I gave. I assumed this would innoculate me as a result, but apparently not.

    In any event, not sure that the New Yorker article completely removes Thatch from the equation. It could qualify as a sterling attempt at FUD though given the following as an example…

    “Sam Dean, blogging for Bon Appétit about the Thatcher-soft-serve connection, suggests that this early soft-serve was more like proto-soft-serve, since “it wasn’t the fluffy, creamy stuff you’d expect to get from a Mr. Softee today.” This raises an intriguing ontological question—if ice cream is soft, and looks like soft-serve, is it, in fact, soft-serve?—but also raises further red flags about Thatcher’s bona fides, condemning her, at best, to be a lesser figure in the sort of Talmudic quarrels that have characterized disputes about the origins of the hamburger and other iconic foods”.

    OK, so if that’s the case then maybe a lesser role, but that’s not the same as a myth now is it, and anyway the story was ” part of a team” in the first place.

    In the process you can also marvel at resorting to bringing “ontological questions” into the matter of… aerating a frigging ice cream.

    And the deeply profound “if ice cream is soft, and looks like soft-serve, is it, in fact, soft-serve?”

    (Cameron could have used some of this when trying to casdtcasdt doubt on IDS!!)

    If that isn’t enough, the next bit provides even more comical manoeuvring…

    “Even if Thatcher had somehow devised aeration techniques at Lyons, the company didn’t turn over its secrets to Whippy.”

    Note, this doesn’t mean Thatch didn’t play a part in inventing anything, it just suggests Whippy didn’t benefit.

    I mean, it’s mildly amusing if taken as an instance of FUD, but whether it establishes that it’s all a myth is summat else…

  47. casdtcasdt = cast

  48. Mikey

    “Unless Labour can win back a significant number of seats North of the border it will be incredibly difficult to win an overall majority.”

    You mean their SDLP allies (sometimes) have to replace Sinn Fein? :-)

    Though, on most of the few occasions that Lab had an overall majority, they didn’t need their Scots MPs to achieve that majority.

    Lab’s hardest problem is winning sufficient seats in England, and the democratic deficit of using Scots and Welsh MPs to force policies on England would be rather indefensible in the modern context.

    Labour may regret having gone down the minimalist devolution line, rather that a Federal model – in which they could build multi-national alliances at the Federal level, while constructing domestic policies for England that the English might actually vote for.

  49. Prompted by a few posts on here about Stephen Crabb, I dipped into his Wikipedia entry. I didn’t know much about him, to be honest, and it does indeed sound as if he had a very difficult upbringing, although I found his comments about his mother’s “dependency” on welfare benefits a bit too close to a Lynton Crosby press release for comfort.

    However, I was surprised to discover that he was one of those many MPs who appear to have gone below the radar quite fortuitously when the expenses scandal broke in 2009. Wikipedia commented: –

    “During the 2009 parliamentary expenses scandal, it was revealed that Crabb claimed £8,049 on the refurbishment of his flat in London. He sold the flat for a profit and used his second home expenses claim to cover a house that was being purchased for his family in Pembrokeshire, allowing him to claim £9,300 in stamp duty and £1,325 per month in interest on its mortgage. He said, “I haven’t claimed for things like plasma TVs, even though the rules allow it. My claims were always within the letter and the spirit of the rules.”

    The letter yes, but spirit? I always felt at the time that while a few MPs were prosecuted and went to prison, there were an awful lot, like Michael Gove for example, who somehow, teflon-like, rode it out scot free. I never ever felt justice was done back then but, as they say, it’s all water under the bridge now and, in some cases, there are Cabinet careers to pursue now.

  50. @Crossbat

    “A morality tale indeed…”

    ————

    Yep, these tales of individuals – perhaps of exceptional talent, and a talent that just happens to be well-remunerated – prevailing (even with support and prolly some luck as well) must be heartening to the greater number who lacking such good fortune, are left to struggle on in a system that requires an increasing number of ducks to be lined up if you’re to prosper.

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