Following the MORI poll earlier today, there is also a fresh ComRes voting intention poll and a new Survation EU referendum poll.

ComRes for the Daily Mail is in line with what we’ve seen already in the YouGov, ICM and MORI polls – the Conservative lead has collapsed. Topline figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 35%(+4), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 9%(-3). The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday, at the same time as IDS’s resignation. Tabs are here

Meanwhile a new Survation EU referendum poll has topline figures of REMAIN 46%(-2), LEAVE 35%(+2), DON’T KNOW 19%(nc). Fieldwork was again at the end of last week (so before the Belgium bombings) and changes are since February. The poll was conducted by telephone, so in this case the robust Remain lead in telephone polls remains mostly undiminished. Full tabs for that are here


195 Responses to “ComRes/Daily Mail – CON 37, LAB 35, LDEM 7, UKIP 9”

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  1. I take it all back – Corbyn will win in 2020.

  2. MORI’s table are now up, linked from main article here (as usual with MORI the slides are also worth examining):

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3713/George-Osbornes-satisfaction-ratings-equal-his-worst-ever-following-budget.aspx

    and Corbyn does indeed lead Cameron:

    Cameron 34 – 59 = -25 (-5)

    Corbyn 35 – 46 = -11 (+5)

    Farage 38 – 40 = -2 (+6.5)

    Farron 24 – 36 = -12 (+2)

    Fieldwork 19-22 Mar and compared to Feb. You’ll note that on nett score Corbyn actually lead Cameron last month as well, so this isn’t just a budget thing. Of course that was ignored as the commentariat all know what the polls ‘should’ say and if reality has the impudence to contradict them it should be ignored. However this is the first time Corbyn is also ahead on ‘satisfied’, 35% to 34%.

  3. @Roger

    Two points:

    Farage leads both of them, but no one expects him to become PM. Also Corbyn won’t be up against Cameron (unless he does a u-turn on staying on) – so it will be interesting to see how Corbyn measures up in 1-2-1 matches against the Tory pretenders to the crown.

  4. As much as I take great personal delight in the Tories’ woes, I believe there have been plenty of times when they’ve bounced back after a setback.

    I was saying a few weeks ago that talk of Corbyn’s Labour losing badly in 2020 was premature. Now I’ll say that talk of Labour victories or hung parliaments is also premature. First Scotland/Wales/London, then EURef, then let’s look again :)

  5. @ALUN009
    As much as I take great personal delight in the Tories’ woes, I believe there have been plenty of times when they’ve bounced back after a setback.

    Totally agree with you.

    On Corbyn’s long term electoral chances, I think what we are seeing currently is the solidification of support for him amongst what has traditionally been elements of the Labour core vote. Come election day, however, these votes may pile up in seats where Labour would win anyway. I doubt he is making any major headway in the marginals with swing voters where it counts, and I can’t see Labour winning back Scotland in the near future. I am not 100% sure where these voters would go if at the next election their choice is between Corbyn and a right wing conservative – but that would give him the best chance of winning.

  6. To me, the surprise is that UKIP are down three points. I would have thought that Osborne’s woes would shift some support from the Conservatiives to UKIP.

  7. The performance of the lib dems is to be watched as if it begins to creep up, plenty of those marginals they lost last may will become vulnerable. Tory victory in May depended on a perfect storm of issues, any one of which could have an impact. If middle england doesn’t like the new Tory leader but can’t bring themselves to vote for Corbyn , maybe the Lib Dems will pick up support by default as the least worst option.

    maybe the majority of.people will go for the least worst option come to think of it!

  8. Corbyn v Boris at the next election? Tory landslide without breaking sweat.

  9. ‘maybe the majority of.people will go for the least worst option come to think of it!’

    Most sensible post I’ve read here so far.

  10. Good evening all from Hampshire.

    Labour look to have pulled back the Tory lead in England but looking at the cross break for Scotland (I know caveats apply) then the Tories could be pulling away from Labour. Tory 30% Labour 15%

    For sometime the cross breaks have been hinting at the Tories gaining on Labour and even actual full sample polls for Holyrood have shown this to be the case.

    Overall across the UK the Tories will take a hit over the Ozzy shambles and the IDS stunning departure but that as others have said will be short term.

    The big unknown of course is what sort of Tory party emerges after the EU vote?

    So where are we? We have a sort of mini Corby bounce, a Tory party trying to stay united during the EU vote, a UKIP party which appears to be on the slide despite the EU stuff being their big platform and a Lib/Dem party, er, eh…whatever!!

    And of course the small matter of the election in Scotland already in the bag for the SNP.

  11. SVEN HASSEL SCHMUCK

    “maybe the majority of.people will go for the least worst option come to think of it!”

    That’s the way I’ve always voted in every election, except those during the Thatcher years.

    Of course the definition of least worst option is very personal for each voter.

  12. Bert “Corbyn v Boris at the next election? Tory landslide without breaking sweat.”

    Maybe with such a choice on the cards Tim Farron might be suggesting his candidates return to their constituencies and prepare for Government!

  13. SVEN HASSEL SCHMUCK

    “Maybe with such a choice on the cards Tim Farron might be suggesting his candidates return to their constituencies and prepare for Government!”
    ______

    People have had their comments chucked into moderation for less. ;-)

  14. Corbyn v Boris at the next election?

    Strangely… Sanders v Trump would be an almost identical proposition. A grey haired lefty against a mop top buffoon.

    Not that I epect either contest to happen…

  15. Steven Fielding, director of the Centre for British Politics at the University of Nottingham, said that for the Conservatives “it’s a terrible crisis — but they’re not facing Tony Blair. They’re not facing a united Labour Party.”

    They’re not even facing Michael Foot, let alone Tony Blair.

  16. @ TOH
    ” “maybe the majority of.people will go for the least worst option come to think of it!”
    That’s the way I’ve always voted in every election,…. ”

    I can’t believe it but I appear to agree with Howard !!

    ” … except those during the Thatcher years ”

    Phew I was getting worried then !! :-)

  17. Looking at the Comres numbers it is not so much that the Conservatives have dropped, but that UKIP has dropped and Labour benefitted from that decline in support for UKIP.

    Could this be an impact from the EU referendum, in that while some Labour supporters were unhappy with Miliband in the 2015 GE they are not fans of leaving the EU either, so are switching back to Labour under Corbyn?

    A reverse of the Indy referendum in Scotland for Labour. Further, with some prominent Tories supporting “leave” UKIP is no longer alone as the sole voice being sceptical on Europe and that could impact them, especially in local elections.

    Contrary to some opinions being expressed about the Lib Dems I see no revival in their political fortunes as of yet, certainly not in Scotland, Wales or in London.

  18. I would be very sceptical about any General Election VI numbers until after the referendum is done and dusted. Similarly approval ratings have to be seen in context. No Tory leavers are going to think Cameron is doing a good job at the moment.

    Usually, oppositions do rather better in local elections than their national situation would indicate but 2012 was a fairly good year for Labour so they will have a hard task holding their position IMO. The problem for Corbyn is that with the Tories distracted, expectations will be hard to manage.

  19. (Left this comment on the wrong thread – pardon the duplication.)

    The problem with Labour is that there are lots of people, both in the party and in the Labour-friendly parts of the media, who positively want the current leadership to fail – and if that means the Labour Party failing, well, you can’t make an omelette without breaking eggs. Speaking as a socialist, I have in the past advised people not to vote Labour, but only in 2005 – at an election when nothing was at risk but the size of the Labour majority. Talking down Labour while they’re in opposition leaves me equal parts enraged and baffled.

    But there’s no doubt that’s what a lot of people are doing. The Oldham result, safe seat though it was, was pretty remarkable, but it was yesterday’s chip-paper in no time – even among those who had been so sure Labour was doomed they’d already called it for UKIP, and called it an awful warning for Labour to boot. (The linked piece was written before polls closed. “In Oldham West and Royton, Labour sought salvation in the seat’s Asian vote – but white working-class constituents defected in large numbers, to Nigel Farage’s party, or simply by staying at home.” Not what happened on the night. When I asked the writer he explained that he was referring to the General Election result in Oldham West and Royton. That would explain it.)

    As for these polls, I don’t buy the ‘UKIP decline’ story, which is only really borne out by one of the four polls we’re looking at. Three out of four show Labour support up by 4%; three out of four show Tory support down by 3%. Parsimonious conclusion: a swing of about 3% from the Tories to Labour, leaving the Tories on 35-7% and Labour on 34-6% (from 38-40 vs 31-3). Which is a big change, but if you trust these figures one month you have to trust them the next.

  20. @Sven Hassel Schmuk

    ‘The performance of the lib dems is to be watched as if it begins to creep up, plenty of those marginals they lost last may will become vulnerable’

    There is not much evidence in the polls of a LibDem recovery. Only Ipsos Mori has them any higher, Comres shows them falling , with YouGov /ICM indicating no change.

  21. We’ve had several EURef polls in the past few days showing some movement to Leave, which appears to have happened in tandem with the government losing support. I’m still not totally convinced that this is a genuine change rather than random variation. The ORB poll from a week ago is still a huge outlier among phone polls, for reason which should be obvious from the questions asked on that particular poll.

    I’ve mentioned before that while there was clearly some movement away from Remain about 6 months ago, there seems to have been a remarkable lack of movement in the overall pattern of EUref polls, even though (individually) they show huge variance. Those taken so far in March 2016 average at a 3 point lead for Remain. To put this into context, here are the past 6 months’ averages:

    Oct 2015 5 point Remain lead.
    Nov 2015 2 point Remain lead
    Dec 2015 6 point Remain lead
    Jan 2016 3 point Remain lead
    Feb 2016 4 point Remain lead
    Mar 2016 3 point Remain lead (so far)

  22. So, at last, something slightly interesting to talk about in terms of the polls although, as we’ve discussed, they’re slightly damaged goods in terms of credibility. I haven’t been at all surprised by the polling in this Parliament so far and was mystified why so many appeared (pretended?) to be. A consistent semi-decent Tory lead of 5-10% seemed pretty par for the course to me considering the election result and the prevailing political and economic circumstances for most of 2015 and early 2016. Why anybody thought Labour should be surging ahead during this period was quite beyond me. People who claimed they should be were either silly, Corbyn-baiting or disingenuous. Or all three!

    However, we’ve just had our first shock to the political system so far this Parliament where we can clearly link political events to polling effects. The significant Tory lead has all but disappeared in a trice, personal approval ratings have jumped around appreciably and the Labour and Tory VIs have moved appreciably outside normal MOE. Something has clearly happened but the question is what and is it the beginning of a trend or a transitory blip?

    I’m not sure to be honest but I sense, with the cordite of the EU Referendum further intoxicating the political atmosphere, that there might be just the whiff of a game starting to change. If, and it’s a big if, Corbyn starts to get a hearing, the Cameron/Osborne axis continues to plummet in terms of public esteem and the Tories begin to take hits on economic credibility, then we’re into some interesting uncharted waters.

    As I’ve said before, this Tory boat is no liner, more an an old tub that slipped into the electoral port last May by dint of a perfect storm at sea. I don’t fancy its seaworthiness much as it now leaves port and sets sail into open seas again. A few waves and it’s shipping water already.

    New captain to the rescue in September this year?

  23. CB,
    As usual we are on much the same page on polling matters. Labour is now performing better than at the same stage of the 1987 /1959 Parliaments and pretty similar to the Tories in opposition under Thatcher for much of 1975.

  24. “So, at last, something slightly interesting to talk about in terms of the polls although, as we’ve discussed, they’re slightly damaged goods in terms of credibility.”

    ———–

    What if the polls are OK now though? What if… You believed them when they were wrong, and didn’t believe them when they were right????

  25. @AC
    “a UKIP party which appears to be on the slide”

    Based on 3pp move in one poll? Surely you’ve been here too long to jump like that.

    Here’s all polls between GE & the weekend graphed.
    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/13/UK_Opinion_Polling_for_the_2020_election.png

  26. “Labour is now performing better than at the same stage of the 1987 /1959 Parliaments ”

    …and worse than in the 1970, 1979, 1983, 1992 and 2010 Parliaments.

    On balance I’d say that it’s discouraging (but less so than it was until recently).

  27. The received wisdom appears to be that Corbyn is unelectable whoever the Tories choose for their next leader. But the likely candidates are a pretty mediocre bunch and the idea that BoJo is PM material is wishful thinking. He’s impossible to take seriously.
    And if Labour ditch Corbyn, who have they got waiting in the wings?
    Maybe it’s my age, but they don’t make ’em like they used to. :-(

  28. @ Alan Christie

    ‘Labour look to have pulled back the Tory lead in England but looking at the cross break for Scotland (I know caveats apply) then the Tories could be pulling away from Labour. Tory 30% Labour 15%’

    Do you see either of them winning more than one or two seats? And if you don’t is their relative position in Scotland likely to make any difference to the the result of a general election?

  29. “…looking at the cross break for Scotland (I know caveats apply) then the Tories could be pulling away from Labour”

    The cross break from a total of 83 people polled in Scotland was that 24 people (so 28%, not 30%) said they’d vote Conservative and 13 people (15%) said they’d vote Labour. Incidentally 35 people ( 40%) said they planned to vote SNP.

    The percentage figures you’ve quoted are therefore larger than the actual number of respondents. The “caveats” must therefore be enormous in this case.

  30. @ James E
    ‘“Labour is now performing better than at the same stage of the 1987 /1959 Parliaments ”

    …and worse than in the 1970, 1979, 1983, 1992 and 2010 Parliaments.’

    Actually not quite. Labour is also now doing better than at the same stage of the 1983 Parliament. Beyond that the Tories were performing much worse at the same stage of the 2001 Parliament – and somewhat worse 10.5 months into the 1966 Parliament.

  31. @ Graham

    Given the scale of Labour’s defeat in 1983, it is hardly encouraging that we’re now doing just a little bit better then 10.5 months after that particular debacle.

    Tony Blair’s strong showing in the equivalent time after the 2001 GE owed a great deal to 9/11. As for 1966…is the Tories revival in the late 1960s really relevant to Labour 50 years on?

  32. I’ve been looking at the EU Referendum polls post GE.

    Here is the data plotted by CUSUM and five poll rolling average:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/p50sthzelf9m3sm/EU_Referendum.png?dl=0

    It looks like both ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ have improved as fewer people are undecided. They are coming off the fence. The start seems to be early March. The undecideds also seem to be splitting fairly evenly.

    The smart money must be on a ‘Remain’ win at this stage, unless something is wrong with the polls (imagine that) or a ‘Leave’ game changer occurs.

  33. @James E

    It is not obvious why the 1966 example lacks relevance given that the Tories had suffered a heavy defeat and were still behind in the polls at the beginning of 1967.
    I am afraid the list gets a bit longer – Labour is doing much better than the Tories were at the same stage post 1997 – and as well as the Opposition was doing in March 2006 early in the 2005 Parliament – despite Cameron having become leader.

  34. I understand that telephone polls are giving more favourable results for Remain than Internet polls. I believe that telephone polls generally use landlines, which one would think would pick up older voters than would internet polls. Yet we are told that older voters are more likely to vote Leave.

    Does this mean that there is something wrong with the pollsters adjustments for age profile, or have I misunderstood something?

  35. “unless something is wrong with the polls (imagine that) or a ‘Leave’ game changer occurs…”

    ————

    Maybe IDS will have another Damoscene conversion and denounce the leave campaign…

  36. @oldnat

    “While support for “Independence” is at its highest ever level, 39%, that is well below the Yes vote in 2014.

    However, support for “The Scottish Parliament should make all the decisions for Scotland” at 51% is also the highest ever, while the classic Devo-Max stance of “The UK should make decisions about defence and foreign affairs ; the Scottish Parliament should decide everything else” continues to have 30% support.

    Since making “all the decisions” is equivalent to being an independent state, that does suggest a degree of loyalty to the idea of a Britain – while not wanting the practical effects of being in a British political union.

    As you point out, people are not always logical in coming to their views. Vulcans we ain’t!”

    ————–

    It isn’t necessarily irrational. For example, if they wanted to keep the attractions of being in the union – currency, defence etc. – but be the ones who get to decide currency, defence, foreign policy matters etc.

    Not entirely divorced from the attraction of holding the balance of power…

  37. @Trofimov

    “If I have understood correctly, the consensus is that polling prior to the last General Election significantly overestimated Labour Party support. There have been some methodological changes since the election to try and take into account these problems.”

    ————–

    Basically they weight the polls according to how peeps voted in the previous election.

    The excuse is then that while this is very accurate immediately after an election, it erodes over time and can be out of whack by the time of the next election, hence the error.

    The fun part is that actually, if you compare the results of the elections, the previous 2010 election turned out to be quite a handy predictor for the vote shares of the two main parties in 2015.

    Tories were only about a percent up in 2015, Labour just a couple of percent.

    But the polling, despite weighting to the previous election, was out by rather more than this…

  38. @oldnat

    “While support for “Independence” is at its highest ever level, 39%, that is well below the Yes vote in 2014.

    However, support for “The Scottish Parliament should make all the decisions for Scotland” at 51% is also the highest ever, while the classic Devo-Max stance of “The UK should make decisions about defence and foreign affairs ; the Scottish Parliament should decide everything else” continues to have 30% support.

    Since making “all the decisions” is equivalent to being an independent state, that does suggest a degree of loyalty to the idea of a Britain – while not wanting the practical effects of being in a British political union.

    As you point out, people are not always logical in coming to their views. Vulcans we ain’t!”

    ————–

    It isn’t necessarily irrati-onal. For example, if they wanted to keep the attractions of being in the union – currency, defence etc. – but be the ones who get to decide currency, defence, foreign policy matters etc.

    Not entirely divorced from the attraction of holding the balance of power…

  39. Carfrew

    Your analysis only makes sense if you suppose that 12% of Scots imagine there could be a constitutional settlement in which the Scottish Parliament could decide the defence and foreign policy for Scotland, while continuing to send MPs to Westminster to vote on exactly those same issues for rUK.

    While Scots are just as likely as those in rUK to be wholly deluded about constitutional, or other, issues (but not as insane as voters in the USA!), your idea stretches credibility somewhat.

    Perhaps, more usefully, as a guide to peoples’ somewhat complex thinking are the responses to the two options (both at their highest point in the x years series)

    Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK and the European Union 13%
    Scotland should become independent, separate from the UK but part of the European Union 26%

    and the (rather dated question format from 1999) Scotland should remain part of the UK, with its own elected parliament which has some taxation powers 43%

    There are all kinds of emotional implications attached to the language of such questions – especially “separate from” and “part of”. They aren’t actually opposite statements.

    For both some Brexiteers and Scots Indy supporters, not being in a binding union with X isn’t necessarily the same as being “separate from”. Looser associations with close co-operation while retaining/regaining sovereignty would be perfectly possible.

    The point of the ScotCen survey results is that there is a complex interaction of competing loyalties, affiliations and self-interest that allow people to give different responses to options that are phrased differently, although the consequences may be virtually identical.

  40. ICM poll suggests a massive difference between engagement in the Scots indyref and the GB part of the EUref.

    The engagement level in Scotland in 2014 was massive, but ICM say “Just 47% say they are absolutely certain to vote in the EU referendum on 23 June – giving 10/10 on a ten-point scale – which is significantly lower compared to the proportion who typically say the same of the next general election (66%). This suggests that the actual turnout in the referendum is likely to be lower than previously suggested.”

    http://www.icmunlimited.com/media-centre/media-center/eu-referendum-introducing-turnout-weighting

  41. @Oldnat

    No, that’s just you reading too much into a post, wasting your precious time as per. I’m just saying it is not entirely irrational for peeps to want Scotland in the driving seat, as an ideal. Whether they would expect it to happen in reality is summat else.

    Like, it’s not irrational for me to want you to write posts that do not waste time. That doesn’t mean I expect that inevitably to happen.

  42. @Oldnat

    No, that’s just you reading too much into a post, wasting your precious time as per. I’m just saying it is not entirely irrati-onal for peeps to want Scotland in the driving seat, as an ideal. Whether they would expect it to happen in reality is summat else.

    Like, it’s not irrati-onal for me to want you to write posts that do not waste time. That doesn’t mean I expect that inevitably to happen.

  43. Though, you know, it could happen…

  44. “Does this mean that there is something wrong with the pollsters adjustments for age profile, or have I misunderstood something?”

    ———–

    Well, more generally, there seems to be something ?rong with our polling sample. Put simply, we have too many of the polling companies who cannot be guaranteed to give the right answer, and not enough of those who might give the correct answer.

    We may need a methodology that weights polling companies according to their reliability. Unless they’re so out of whack the variation is pretty random, of course, whereupon it might mean it’s easier just going back to tea leaves as discussed previously.

    HTH.

  45. @ Red Rich

    “I take it all back – Corbyn will win in 2020.”

    See, I think this is all part of Labour’s grand strategy. With Corbyn at the helm, the Tories will run hog wild. “That guy is so awful, we can have a return to Thatcherism!” And then Corbyn can be removed as leader in 2019 and replaced with someone actually palatable to the electorate, right on the eve of the next general election.

  46. “That guy is so awful, we can have a return to Thatcherism!”

    I fear Thatcherism would be regarded as a deviant leftish cult by those at the helm these days

  47. @SocalLiberal

    “See, I think this is all part of Labour’s grand strategy. With Corbyn at the helm, the Tories will run hog wild. “That guy is so awful, we can have a return to Thatcherism!” And then Corbyn can be removed as leader in 2019 and replaced with someone actually palatable to the electorate, right on the eve of the next general election.”

    As Blackadder once said to Baldrick, “a plan so cunning, you could put a tail on it and call it a weasel!”

    Happy Easter everyone.

    :-)

  48. The smart money must be on a ‘Remain’ win at this stage, unless something is wrong with the polls (imagine that) or a ‘Leave’ game changer occurs.

    I see it being a “Leave” victory as the leave support, almost by definition, is far more likely to get out and vote.

    Also, the folk more likely to vote “Leave” are also the same groups that are more likely to vote; the old, those with an axe to grind and Conservatives.

  49. @ Graham

    “It is not obvious why the 1966 example lacks relevance given that the Tories had suffered a heavy defeat and were still behind in the polls at the beginning of 1967.
    I am afraid the list gets a bit longer – Labour is doing much better than the Tories were at the same stage post 1997 – and as well as the Opposition was doing in March 2006 early in the 2005 Parliament – despite Cameron having become leader.”

    Two points: firstly, for the past 35 years at least, the Tories have tended to do better and Labour worse in General Elections than in opinion polls. Tory ‘revivals’ from a poor polling position are therefore not a precedent to suggest that Labour might do the same.

    Secondly, I’m thinking of ALL precedents from a year or so after a Tory election win when I say that, overall, Labour’s current performance is not good – albeit that recent polls are a little more encouraging.

  50. James E,
    The opinion polls understated Labour in 2010 – 1983 and February 1974. With regard to a Government recovering from a poor polling position , the most striking example remains that of Harold Wilson’s Labour Government in 1970. Whilst it still – surprisingly ! – lost, the margin of defeat at less than 2.5% on a GB basis compares with Tory leads throughout 1968 and most of 1969 of 20 – 28%.

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