YouGov have released some fresh EU polling, a batch of five new polls conducted in the last two weeks. The most recent poll, conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, has topline figures of Remain 40%, Leave 37% and the three polls before that also showed Remain with a small lead. While YouGov have been typically showing a very tight race, their 2016 polls up to now have shown small leads for LEAVE, so four YouGov polls in a row showing REMAIN ahead suggests some movement. It will be interesting to see if that is reflected in other polling, and whether movement continues in that direction.

Note that this isn’t the start of daily EU referendum polling. We put the EU question on lots of polls in a row because it was the control question for an academic experiment. There will NOT be YouGov daily referendum polls for the next four months!

Tabs should be up in the YouGov archive later on today.


136 Responses to “YouGov – Remain 40%, Leave 37%”

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  1. Carfrew
    Lol.

    Wouldn’t ‘our’ Boris have said it more like

    “Er well, I’ve never, you know, been photographed with that Russian chessplayer chappie er what’s-his name”

  2. Good Evening All, after a lovely day in Bournemouth East.
    I think Boris is going to give Dave a run for his money.

    BEEKEPER: Thank you for your post, and I fully concur with your approach.

    IMHO, as we say here: Labour should try to stay cool and detached from what is a Tory fight, and instead find a way of getting a leader who could be PM. The latter bit is very hard to arrange, but a military man, like Dan Jarvis may have the skills and character.
    With regard to polling I do not expect this Referendum thing to change voting intentions, except, possibly, to reduce the Lib Dem figure, which, I think, looks a little high. Just saying…

  3. Brent Crude has hit $40 a barrel….Independence here we come!!!

    Peter.

  4. Peter – Yes, and of course as it’s March 2016, we’ve now reached the planned Independence Day – so just as well that it’s no longer $60 a barrel like when this was written:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/oilmageddon/

  5. @Colin

    “I was pretty stunned-and disappointed by Boris’s performance on Marr……………. It confirms my long held view that this man is not PM material.”

    I think you’re right, although that recent poll amongst Tory party members suggests that he’s a strong favourite to succeed Cameron as leader. I actually think, rather like the Labour contest last September, that talent is a little thin on the ground amongst the likely runners and riders in the Tory race. Gove, Osborne, May, Javid and Johnson could well be the line up in 2019, maybe earlier if Cameron slips up. Gove and Johnson may be damaged goods if the Leave campaign is routed in June and I can’t see Osborne, May or Javid quickening the nation’s pulse particularly.

    Take Johnson out of it, and there doesn’t look to be any popular household names queuing up for the top job and that’s why the sub plot to this Referendum is so interesting. If Johnson comes out of it well, I think he’s a shoo-in for the Tory leadership, but then what? If you’re right, and he runs for PM in 2020 and proves to be the accident waiting to happen we both suspect he will be, then things may turn nasty for the Tories, especially if they’ve become an unpopular government by then too. Everyone is assuming that a Johnson leadership will lift them off the rocks. I’m not so sure.

    The dog that isn’t barking yet is what Labour may do. My hunch is that Corbyn will be gone by mid 2018, so if I was a Labour strategist, playing the long game, I’d be thinking about who might run well against Johnson in 2020. If they get it right, a big if I admit, then all bets could be off in terms of predicting the election result. Our current calculations would have to be drastically re-calibrated if there is a new Labour leader in place.

    Jarvis v Johnson in 2020? You heard it here first.

    :-)

  6. “but a military man, like Dan Jarvis may have the skills and character.”

    Step forward Eric Joyce…….Your hour is at hand!

    Peter.

  7. CB11

    Who knows?

    If that is the choice I can see UK Voter going for Boris-and discovering after the Election what a rubbish PM he is.

    But I think there is far too much water to go under both bridges to contemplate it yet.
    On the Tory side , there are probably candidates in the more recent intake who haven’t been thought of yet.
    On the Labour side , talk of a successor to Corbyn skates over the Tectonic issue of PLP vs Membership-its not going to be simple-or easy-or painless.

  8. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)
    “Brent Crude has hit $40 a barrel….Independence here we come!!!”
    _____________

    I had a word with my contacts in the Kremlin and asked them to suspend oil production for a while.

    Looks like it worked. ;-)

  9. It’s not just oil, storage costs went up again recently too…

  10. @Pete B(oris)

    “Wouldn’t ‘our’ Boris have said it more like
    “Er well, I’ve never, you know, been photographed with that Russian chessplayer chappie er what’s-his name”

    ————-

    You can’t fool us, even the initial is a dead giveaway!! Mind you, he’d prolly respond like on Top Gear… “Eh? Where’s this going?…”

  11. @Colin

    “On the Labour side , talk of a successor to Corbyn skates over the Tectonic issue of PLP vs Membership-its not going to be simple-or easy-or painless.”

    Very true, but these sorts of things seldom are. Let’s see how the land lies after two years of electoral setbacks and flat-lining opinion polls. Decision time then. Do the serious people in Labour, the ones interested in winning and up to now relatively silent and unheard in the immediate aftermath of Corbyn’s triumph, make a move prior to the election, or do they let the car crash happen in 2020 and then pick up the pieces amongst the wreckage?

    Of course, another scenario is that Corbyn throws in the towel. One punch too many and his corner do the decent thing. I’m still not sure he’s got the stomach for a real political fight. He’s been a spectator shouting at the referee from the stands for most of his time in politics. He’s on the pitch playing with the big boys now. Different game.

    All this said, he could yet confound us all!

    :-)

  12. ChrisLane
    “With regard to polling I do not expect this Referendum thing to change voting intentions, ….”

    I think it might if Leave won, because the political landscape will have changed. There would be disgruntled Tory and Labour voters who wanted Remain. What would they do? What of UKIP? Would they disappear, or gain in strength? What would Scotland do, if the majority there wanted to remain, etc etc.

  13. Carfrew
    You got me, er, bang to rights, just like when Socrates had to drink hemlock, don’t yer know, or so I was told by my classics master.

  14. @CB11

    “I’m still not sure he’s got the stomach for a real political fight. He’s been a spectator shouting at the referee from the stands for most of his time in politics. He’s on the pitch playing with the big boys now. Different game.”

    I think that’s a little unfair as a characterization – he’s endured near enough eight months of abuse (and that’s just from his own party!) and is still going. Meanwhile one of the ‘big boys’ (Unumma) could only hack a week of mildly inquisitive speculation before throwing in the towe and, with only a tenth of the scrutiny, Boris Johnson’s identity as a intellectual titan is already crumbling apart.

    Whether Corbyn goes the distance is another question. It’s certainly true, now, that about the only feasible way he’ll go without ructions in the membership is if he stands aside and likely nominates a successor – a situation for which the blame lands entirely at the feet of the PLP who brought this on themselves by behaving like spoilt children hurling a temper tantrum from day one. Should Corbyn depart it will not be for a lack of a stomach for a fight.

  15. The parallel with the LP of the gulf between the grassroots shire tories and their political elite is fascinating. In particular, there is considerable anger with MPs who led their constituency associations to believe that they would vote to leave the EU but who have now decided to back Cameron and Osborne. The same argument (as in the LP) rages about the lack of democracy and whether an MP is a representative or a delegate…. the torynistas?

    I hear that Dominic Raab is much favoured as an outsider to succeed Cameron. I also understand that many grassroots Conservatives fear for the survival of their party post-referendum and they don’t share the media’s certainty that they will win in 2020. In fact, many Conservatives are realistic about the significance of the SNP rise and the LD implosion for their luck in 2015, and worry that those factors will not be in place next time.

  16. Prime Minister Trudeau of Canada hit the nail on the head in an interview with the Huffington Post earlier today, when he said that Americans need to figure out why so many people in the US are mad at their democracy and what they are mad about.

    For my money Donald Trump and his Republican supporters and Boris Johnson and his ilk in the UK Conservative Party are cut from the same political cloth, When Reagan and Thatcher introduced “trade liberalization” – Thatcher strategists had been previously sent to British Columbia to study the confrontation that the BC Social Credit government had just had with the unions in this province of Canada – the argument was made that global free trade would be good for working people around the world.

    As Bernie Sanders pointed out in Flint Michigan we are now living in a world where wages and benefits are lower comparatively than they were twenty years ago. So instead of spreading global prosperity “economic globalization”, fully supported by the Clintons, has in many places “gutted” the high paying jobs that did exist in the manufacturing and other sectors, while not improving the standard of living in the countries where manufacturing and the service sector has has removed itself to.

    It is the same with “Regime Change” ushered in by the “Bobsey Twins”, Bush and Blair, which has gutted various states across the Middle East and North Africa to achieve what? And now Trump wants to build a wall, while “playboy” Boris “baby” wants to “Brexit”. Having broken both the furniture and the crockery these two characters want to now take their ball and run home, pulling up the drawbridge behind them.

    Well real politics does not work like that. Those who play with fire, get to burn their fingers as is happening now in both Spain and Ireland where no one is sure how to form a government because the respective countries populations are so polarized.

    In Vancouver last week our Prime Minister, while waiving the December Paris agreement, decided to yell at the Premiers and Territorial leaders, after which they agreed to come back in six months with an agreed upon way to price carbon and reduce it’s emissions in Canada.

    In the real world working people and their families do not get to put off dealing with their problems, they have to live with them day in day out while they struggle to find solutions, because unlike the bankers no one is usually there to bail them out.

  17. CB11

    It is reported from the much trailed PLP Meeting last night, that Corbyn called for more loyalty from his MPs.

    Given the irony of such a demand from a man with his track record, I guess the reports must be false. Corbyn’s main virtue, we are forever told, is absolute consistency.

    Re Throwing in the towel-I wonder who actually has it -JC -or Momentum ?. If the towel holder wants to keep sending you out there, I suppose you have to keep slugging away??

  18. SYZYGY

    @”. I also understand that many grassroots Conservatives fear for the survival of their party post-referendum and they don’t share the media’s certainty that they will win in 2020. In fact, many Conservatives are realistic about the significance of the SNP rise and the LD implosion for their luck in 2015, and worry that those factors will not be in place next time.”

    I’m impressed with your knowledge of Tory Membership opinion.

    Mind you , there are so few of them , I suppose a few phone calls would cover the lot?

  19. Opinium/Standard have a poll in London, England (American usages are infectious :-) ).

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/mayor/sadiq-khan-leads-rival-by-five-points-in-mayor-race-a3198231.html

    Not much sign of any leaching to smaller parties.

    None of the smaller party candidates came close to the big two, gaining about two per cent each.

    Ukip’s Peter Whittle was marginally ahead of the Green Party’s Sian Berry and Liberal Democrat Caroline Pidgeon, while Respect Party candidate George Galloway trails the pack with less than one per cent.

  20. @Colin

    “On the Labour side, talk of a successor to Corbyn skates over the Tectonic issue of PLP vs Membership-its not going to be simple-or easy-or painless.”

    Very true, but these sorts of things seldom are.

    Writing as a pragmatic Labour Party member, with the current mood in the party it will take a serious drumming at the Polls in 2020, and a realisation we could be looking to 2030 till a realistic chance of Labour gaining power, for them to see sense. Jezza will still be the Labour leader in 2020, which will be a gift to whoever is the Tory leader. Scotland is well and truly lost to the Labour Party. What is also a danger for Labour in the referendum is the sense that it is an irrelevance, a perception that could all too easily stick with the electorate.

  21. Oldnat

    It is 55-45 after reallocation of second prefs. Desperate spin from the Evening Boris trying to make out it is neck-and-neck.

  22. @ Old Nat

    So there has been no shift in the predicted outcome since YouGov did their poll January 4th to 6th.

    At 25% undecided one has to wonder how many of those voters will actually turnout to vote, if neither main candidate is inspiring and/or “colorful”

    In 2012 Jenny Jones of the Green Party came third with 4.5% of the vote, but turnout was 38.1% – down from 45.4% four years earlier.

    In a recent by-election in Vancouver Mount Pleasant here in British Columbia the Greens pushed their vote up to 27.1% from 11.9% in the 2013 general election, but turnout dropped from 49.8% to 23.4%.

    So as the pollster states who wins may come down to who has the best GOTV machine.

  23. Andy

    You’ll be glad to know that the SGP seem to have been included in the STV and both BBC debates for Holyrood.

    Pat Harvie usually comes over well.

    UKIP get one appearance in the first BBC debate, and Coburn will, no doubt, play his Trump card. :-)

  24. Looking at the earlier February Welsh Assembly poll I observe that neither the Conservative, Plaid or Green support has shifted since 2011.

    In contrast the Lib Dem support has halved and Labour appears to be losing 1:6.3 of their votes. Now I suppose there could have been a flow through of votes from Lib Dem to Conservative.

    But who are these Labour and Lib Dem voters who are switching to UKIP? Are they the same type of angry blue collar voter who supported Reagan and are now supporting Trump in 2016?

    It’s the same with “leave” versus “remain”. What are these voters income levels and social status in the community, what is now euphemistically referred to as their “wealth gap” or what Piketty calls the “Income Capital ratio”.

  25. RedRich makes a good point.

    There is a danger that the Lab party is seen as having nothing to say on the issue of the day (Euroref). Might be better to hear both Remainers and Leavers outlining the reasons for their position and campaigning vigorously (read: taking airtime away from B Johnson, Cameron, Farage et al.)

    I think that with the exception of those whose profile was already sky-high to start with any politician who campaigns effectively will emerge with his or her reputation enhanced, regardless of side taken. It’s a chance for them to showcase their campaigning skills and display some intellectual heft (ha!). Might not matter so much to the general population, but it will to party memberships and MPs (and they’re the ones who’ll decide party leadership)…

  26. Sorbus

    “any politician who campaigns effectively will emerge with his or her reputation enhanced, regardless of side taken. It’s a chance for them to showcase their campaigning skills and display some intellectual heft (ha!).”

    That was Jim Murphy’s strategy.

    RIP Jim.

  27. What I find odd is that Alan Johnson who is supposed to connect with the public (particularly blue-collar) is not making more of an impact.

  28. Anthony: Can you please tell me whether there could be an exit poll on EU referendum night, or is this unlikely as there would be no previous data to weight samples against?

  29. @ Hawthorn

    Impact is a resultant of speed and weight …

  30. And direction…

  31. And strictly speaking, not weight but mass. You can have impacts even when stuff is weightless…

  32. Like if Alan Johnson woz floating around in space, he might be weightless, but could still have an impact.

  33. @Johnboy

    “Anthony: Can you please tell me whether there could be an exit poll on EU referendum night…?”

    That’s a bit biased!

  34. Laszlo

    Impact is a resultant of speed and weight …

    Talking about a New Labour politician brought out a rash of management-speak in me. Apologies! ;)

  35. Jonboy/RAF – nope, the broadcasters are not commissioning one (as you suggest, it would be impossible to use the methodology they do for general elections anyway)

  36. @ Carfrew

    Apologies. I was careless with my wording. Mind, while it is the mass, the impact is really about the way in which masses of objects (or persons …) change the trajectory and speed of free moving other objects, which is weight really in Newtonian language :-)

    But yes, I missed the direction. Unless we are talking subatomic particles …

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