The next part of YouGov’s poll of Labour party members for Ian Warren is out here, dealing with the party leadership. Approval of Jeremy Corbyn among Labour party members remains solid – 72% of party members approve of him, 17% disapprove. So while there is a rump of unhappy party members, there’s a solid majority with a positive opinion (figures are similar for John McDonnell – 57% of members approve, 19% disapprove). 63% of party members want to see Corbyn remain party leader and contest the general election.
At the time of Corbyn’s election polls suggested that his supporters were far more concerned about his beliefs than whether he would lead Labour to electoral success. This poll seems to confirm that’s still the case. At this stage support for Corbyn among Labour party members doesn’t really seem conditional upon how well the party does electorally. Less than half (47%) of members think the Labour party will win the next election under Corbyn, yet his support remains high. In the event that Labour do badly in the Scottish, Welsh, London and local elections 53% of Labour party members think he should still remain leader and contest the next election (the survey leaves it open to respondents to imagine what performing “badly” might mean… a bad performance in Scotland seems almost assured, but London polls so far have Sadiq ahead for the mayoralty).
If Corbyn was challenged, the data still suggests he’d hold onto the leadership. The poll had a “who would be your first preference as leader” question with a very long list of candidates in which Corbyn got less than a majority of support, but on a mock ballot paper against Hillary Benn, Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy, Angela Eagle and Tom Watson he wins comfortably on the first round (62% support, with Benn in second place on 15%). If Corbyn goes and McDonnell stands in his place he would be ahead on the first round, but only by 29% to Benn’s 20%, so perhaps he wouldn’t win overall.
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