The next part of YouGov’s poll of Labour party members for Ian Warren is out here, dealing with the party leadership. Approval of Jeremy Corbyn among Labour party members remains solid – 72% of party members approve of him, 17% disapprove. So while there is a rump of unhappy party members, there’s a solid majority with a positive opinion (figures are similar for John McDonnell – 57% of members approve, 19% disapprove). 63% of party members want to see Corbyn remain party leader and contest the general election.

At the time of Corbyn’s election polls suggested that his supporters were far more concerned about his beliefs than whether he would lead Labour to electoral success. This poll seems to confirm that’s still the case. At this stage support for Corbyn among Labour party members doesn’t really seem conditional upon how well the party does electorally. Less than half (47%) of members think the Labour party will win the next election under Corbyn, yet his support remains high. In the event that Labour do badly in the Scottish, Welsh, London and local elections 53% of Labour party members think he should still remain leader and contest the next election (the survey leaves it open to respondents to imagine what performing “badly” might mean… a bad performance in Scotland seems almost assured, but London polls so far have Sadiq ahead for the mayoralty).

If Corbyn was challenged, the data still suggests he’d hold onto the leadership. The poll had a “who would be your first preference as leader” question with a very long list of candidates in which Corbyn got less than a majority of support, but on a mock ballot paper against Hillary Benn, Dan Jarvis, Lisa Nandy, Angela Eagle and Tom Watson he wins comfortably on the first round (62% support, with Benn in second place on 15%). If Corbyn goes and McDonnell stands in his place he would be ahead on the first round, but only by 29% to Benn’s 20%, so perhaps he wouldn’t win overall.

Full tabs are here.


19 Responses to “More of YouGov’s Labour members poll”

  1. Labour party members are overwhelmingly in favour of REMAIN – 81% say they’ll vote to stay, 11% to leave, 8% don’t know.

    From the last post…

    Fascinating that 11% of solid Labour voters say they’ll vote to Leave the EU.

    The EU seems to offer opportunities for young, for the poor, for migration and immigration and plays a fairly strong hand on environmental issues and would probably like to curb the powers of the financial sector. It sounds like something ALL Labour voters would back… I wonder what it is they have issue with?

  2. @Jasper22

    I think this underlines why the pragmatic conservative party tradition has been the dominate force in British politics since the time of Robert Peel.

    This poll does seem to confirm that Labour appear to be content to put principles before practicalities.

    @DAVID IN FRANCE

    Possibly the thought that they would like to be an independent sovereign state with control over 100% of its policies and law making?

  3. Sea Change

    Spot on

  4. ComRes tables on polling on Westminster VI & EUref.

    http://www.comres.co.uk/polls/daily-mail-political-poll-february-2016/

    Anyone, on a polling site, in the slightest bit interested?

    No?

    OK.

  5. The more that polls remain static, the more chance Corbyn has of becoming PM (if, of course, the PLP don’t oust him, spelling disater for the party). The tories went easy on Miliband up until the election, knowing he’d come across as geeky, and fail to convince the electorate. Corbyn has had it all thrown at him from all sides, yet hasn’t plummetted. When people actually see him perform, his genuine likeability will give him a great advantage over Miliband.

  6. @Seachange
    “… the pragmatic conservative party tradition has been the dominate force in British politics since the time of Robert Peel.”
    I saw a comment on one of the news sites to the effect that a useful by-product of the Conservatives being in government was that other people weren’t.
    Perhaps that’s part of the appeal of the ‘pragmatic conservative party tradition’ for those who don’t want the boat rocked.

  7. “support for Corbyn among Labour party members doesn’t really seem conditional upon how well the party does electorally.”

    That’s an odd test to apply. In Blair’s heyday, I remember a lot of stuff about how the party had been transformed and its beliefs had been modernised, etc, etc. I don’t remember much commentary to the effect that Labour members only supported Blair because he could win elections, and would dump him like a shot if Labour started losing.

    Blair had the great advantage of taking over the leadership at a time when the next election was pretty much in the bag, such was the state of the Tory party, so his remaking of the Labour party could plausibly be presented as having been necessary in order for Labour to win. But I think we were all supposed to believe that New Labour was a good idea in its own right, and I’m pretty sure lots of people did.

  8. ‘At the time of Corbyn’s election polls suggested that his supporters were far more concerned about his beliefs than whether he would lead Labour to electoral success. This poll seems to confirm that’s still the case’.

    Well that’s great for them.

    It doesn’t sound like any of them are in need of a foodbank, or any of them are looking at their payslips at the end of the month to see if they can afford to cover their bills.

    They’re alright, Jack.

  9. @David in France

    “I wonder what it is they have issue with?”

    Speaking only for myself, two things:

    1. Austerity forever.
    2. The coup in Greece last year.

  10. @David in France

    Thought I’d add a couple more possible candidates to the list, Labour peeps can tell me if I am in the ballpark or not…

    – some Labour peeps buy the idea immigration is responsible mainly for our ills and leaving the EU would cure that

    – the issue that being in the EU makes renationalisation problematic

    Fears of ever greater Union may apply to Labour and others…

  11. And some peeps may not be happy at the ease with which we let continentals buy up our industries but somehow they manage to protect their own.

  12. Personally, I don’t think we’re making enough of the EU thing. If we’re gonna do it, let’s do it properly. We’re doing some fusion, and that’s ok, but not cool stuff like the Polywell, nor Thorium. Never mind the channel tunnel, there should be tunnels everywhere. Partially evacuated for faster trains. And lots more storage, of course…

  13. I love how the comments become ever more entertaining and shrill during elections. When in Rome…

    Corbyn supporters give me wood.

    The guy who delivers my logs saw my corbyn poster and told me he and his midwife er wife are supporters, as are many of their friends.

    As for the in out fuss I remain a remain.

  14. Hope you don’t mean me. Don’t see where I was being shrill. Except maybe about storage, but you can’t really be too shrill about that…

  15. It seems a lot of folks still don’t get it….

    This is about having a party leader who represents a significant section of society, and Jeremy Corbyn represents that. For these people, they don’t want a Nick-Clegg-Ed-Milliband-Andy-Burnham type, who changes his views like a chameleon for the sole goal of gaining power. If Corbyn does not win in 2020, at least he will go down sticking to his principles, and fighting for the views of a significant section of society. If those views represent a majority by 2020, he will win. But if they don’t, and he loses, at least he will go down having fought the good fight, and having given Britain an alternative to the May election, when the only choice the electorate seemed to have was between Tory (Cameron), Tory-lite (Clegg), and New Tory (Milliband).

    Give me a Corbyn as a Labour leader over a Blairite any day…at least I can tell the difference between the Conservatives and Labour now. And if he loses in 2020 and steps down, his replacement won’t be a Blairite (sorry, Hilary!). It will be someone who has similar views to Corbyn, i.e. John McDonnell.

  16. Carfrew: there are many Labour voters who are worried by immigration, but Labour voters are a very different breed from Labour members right now.

    The stereotypical Corbynista is torn between the social aspects of the EU, which are great, and the economics which they see as neoliberal. They seem to be erring mostly on the side of caution, possibly because they see the EU as a safeguard against the excesses of the Tory government

  17. Michael Siva: you really think that there’ll be a left-winger on the ballot paper at the next Labour leadership election? The PLP aren’t going to make that mistake again!

    I agree that, unless the make-up of the Labour Party membership shifts dramatically (it’s already shifted further left since Corbyn was elected, with many moderates leaving the party in despair) that they’d vote for another left-winger. But they won’t be given that choice.

  18. @polltroll

    Yes, I won on about voters, following on from Dave in France’s post.

    But yeah, that seems a helpful shorthand for how corbynista’s might view the EU thing. Although I wonder how they might view summat like a democratic deficit…

  19. How can this be regarded as balanced polling without equivalent data of other political parties?