ICM have released their weekly tracker on the EU referendum. The poll was conducted between Friday evening and today, so it was after Cameron’s EU deal was announced but was almost entirely before Boris Johnson endorsed the leave campaign (only eleven responses are “post-Boris”). Topline voting intentions are REMAIN 42%, LEAVE 40% – so wholly in line with ICM’s polling before the deal. Tabs are here.
Today also saw some new YouGov polling of Labour party members, conducted for Ian Warren. The fun stuff from this is probably the data on the leadership (out tomorrow on Ian’s site) but the initial slice of data covers the policy views of Labour party members, and compares them to Labour party voters and to the general public.
The Labour party membership is increasingly in line with the views of their leader. 68% of Labour members opose renewal of Trident, 64% think trade unions should have more influence, 58% say they wouldn’t vote for any Labour leader if they had supported airstrikes against Syria. Recent recruits are even more Corbynite – over 80% of those who’ve joined in the last year are anti-Trident, over 70% think unions should have more influence and would only support a leader who opposed airstrikes in Syria.
A leftwards consolidation of the Labour party membership however risks opening up a significant gulf between the views of members and voters. The most obvious example of that here is immigration. On salience, health and the economy are seen as two of the three biggest issues facing the country by Labour members, Labour voters and the general public. But on immigration 60% of the general public think it is a major issue, 46% of Labour voters do, just 17% of Labour members do; 78% of Labour party members think immigration is good for the economy, only 41% of Labour voters do, only 29% of the general public.
Finally, on the EU referendum Labour party members are overwhelmingly in favour of REMAIN – 81% say they’ll vote to stay, 11% to leave, 8% don’t know.