There are two new polls on the EU referendum today. While the YouGov and ComRes polls conducted after the draft renegotiation showed a sharp movement towards LEAVE, these two paint a far steadier picture (though given one is online and one was conducted by phone, their overall figures contrast with each other!). ICM’s last poll had shown LEAVE nudging ahead, today’s new online figures are back to REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 39% (tabs here). Ipsos MORI’s latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36% – virtually unchanged from their previous poll (tabs here).

MORI also released their monthly voting intention figures, which stand at CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%


353 Responses to “Latest MORI and ICM referendum polling”

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  1. Roger Mexico

    I agree with your post. What is more, he looks to have even roped in his old man to make out he is damaging his career (as if), with the corollary that he is being principled (arf).

  2. Roger Mexico

    You don’t think that Boris has left his decision too late, and is open to charges of indecisiveness, or worse, dithering?

    He is in a position where he loses face if ‘remain’ wins, or if it’s a close call.
    His only winning hand is if the UK decisively votes ‘leave’, and he has had a high profile role in a successful campaign.

    If he keeps his head down and lets others do the work, then it might not go so well for him, and there are after all a lot of high profile Tory potentials campaigning alongside him.

  3. Crikey. Have you seen what’s happening to sterling on the internal currency markets.

    Jeez.

  4. THOUGHTFUL

    Boris would not more be damaged by “Remain” winning than Salmond and Sturgeon were after the Indyref.

    It is the Tory grassroots that are the electorate here and many will be as mad as hell if Remain win. It would be just like Labour after 2015.

    The only thing that could stop him would be the Parliamentary Party not nominating him (which would cause an even deeper split due to a perceived stitch-up).

  5. LOUISWALSHVOTESGREEN
    Perhaps I put it poorly, but the last two ‘grand coalitions’ were of the same constellation. I’m sorry if it was ‘ridiculous’ to express the hope that it didn’t happen again next time ’round.

    You think that it’s ‘not necessarily a bad idea that governance is shared between the two parties that attracted 2/3of the votes.’ Fine, I don’t find that ridiculous, but I just think that it’s a bit of a shame for everyone to go out and vote, and then end up — possibly for the third time (out four elections)– with a ‘National Government’; a “Con/Lab pact” if you like. If this were to happen in Britain once or twice, I can imagine people starting to think ‘what’s the point? The faces never change.’

    I vote in Germany, so I thought my opinion had at least some anecdotal relevence to what KIETHP had posted.

  6. CROSSBAT11

    I would imagine our exporters are pleased. The Footsie is showing a 90 point gain on the day so far

  7. It is a bit too soon to start linking sterling fluctuations with Boris.

    Give it a bit more time; Sterling was at around 1.40€ in November.

    If it is down to 1.25€ or less by the end of the week, then it is probably a Boris effect.

    I quote against the € as the $ appreciated after the Fed interest rate rise.

  8. To be honest, I don’t think there are enough hard-core pro-Europeans left in the Conservative party for there to be any kind of civil war amongst the membership.

    This is not like the Labour party, with a fundamental rift on matters of principle. This is maybe 60% who hate the EU a lot, 30% who hate the EU a little bit, 8% who like the EU a bit and 2% who love the EU to bits.

    There won’t be many Tories crying into their beer if Leave prevails.

    Of course, on a personal level things may be said and done during the campaign that will cause bad blood between individual politicians. We’ve already seen that sensible, balanced discussion is probably not going to be the order of the day (with talk of the EU making terrorist attacks more likely etc). When politicians start accusing each other of talking rubbish they may well end up poisoning the well, even if there isn’t much between them on most policies.

  9. If the June 23rd vote is a narrow “leave” and Cameron does not negotiate to “leave” how many Conservative back benchers could skip over to UKIP?

    I remember the Quebec sovereignty referendum in 1995, in which I watched the “Yes” side winning, right up until the final votes were counted in Montreal: 49.42% “Yes”: 50.58% “No”.

    Does Cameron lose his majority?

    What happens to a split Labour Party?

    Seems to me this is one hell of a roll of the dice.

    Unlike you folks in the UK we in Canada have absolutely no say over what our governments negotiate in these “trade deals” other than at elections under an FPTP voting system.

    Someone said they would vote to leave because the EU was not “democratic”.

    You have a Parliament and elect members to that Parliament in rough proportion to how the electorate feels.

    The fact that so few people vote in EU elections is not the fault of the EU, it is a failure of the electorate to participate in determining their own future.

    I live an area of rural south east British Columbia where it is not unusual for upwards of 70% to 80% to turn out at local elections, and 70% in provincial and federal ones.

    One gets the government and policies one votes for, and if you do not vote you get the government and policies that someone else chooses for you.

    To turn round and blame the institutions that a majority voted to join, and then blame those institutions for exceeding expectations seems a little ridiculous.

    The world of 2016 is not the same world as 1973, and the English electorate might want to take to heart what was said to the Scots in the referendum.

    It seems to me that whole premise of “leave” is based on a belief that the UK cannot influence what it wants inside the EU, so lets return to a past that no longer exists.

    Have fun negotiating with the Chinese all by yourself!!

  10. Neil A

    It is a Grassroots versus Party Establishment split that I think is most likely. This is what happened to Labour.

    The thing is that there has really been a three way split in the Tories:

    A: Ardent pro-Europeans like Ken Clarke…now almost extinct as you say and not just in the Conservative Party (who wants to join the Euro now anyway?)

    B: Eurosceptics who want to change Europe in an Anglo-Saxon direction…e.g. Cameron.

    C: Better off outers…e.g. David Davis.

    I would argue that the divide between B and C is far greater than A and B which is more of a continuum.

  11. @Andy,

    Does Canada not trade with China then?

  12. Neil A

    I forgot to mention that the Tories also have the need to keep their big business benefactors sweet as well as the grassroots.

    I wonder if any are now thinking that Ed Miliband wasn’t such a bad idea after all?

  13. The Lucid Talk poll in NI was conducted for the Belfast Telegraph and their report has both more detail (and less bias) than any rubbish the Sun publishes!

    http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/eu-referendum-how-will-northern-ireland-unionists-and-nationalists-vote-on-june-23-34475000.html

    Those interested in actual polling methodology may like to read the description at the bottom of the article.- hence an moe of +/- 4%.


    compared to last October the No. of Nationalist/Republican ‘undecideds’ has grown, but is still less than the Unionist ‘undecideds’.

    In addition the ‘Remain’ vote has dropped from over 90% to 74% indicating perhaps that a No. of Nationalist/Republicans have moved from ‘Remain’ to ‘having a further think about the issue’ i.e. moved to the ‘undecideds’.

    ……………………………………………….

    In terms of those who said they were going to vote to ‘Remain’ i.e. stay-in the EU, here are the three main factors stated in order of how popular they were indicated:

    (1) NI specifically gains from the EU – business, agriculture, social programs etc.
    (2) EU is a World leading trading block allowing movement of people, capital, and services.
    (3) UK & NI are net beneficiaries from the EU i.e. the UK gets more out than it puts in.

    In terms of those who said they were going to vote to ‘Leave’ here are the three main factors stated in order of how popular they were indicated:

    (1) The EU is becoming an super-state not a trading block & not democratically accountable for its decisions.
    (2) Immigration – UK & NI needs more control of its borders.
    (3) UK is a net contributor to the EU & NI would gain from the saving.

    Of most interest is the diametrically opposed beliefs as to whether UK/NI benefits/losses financially due to EU. Presumably because people believe the propaganda they are fed!

  14. Very easy in this situation to simply view this referendum in “splendid isolation”, but there are several other countries very fed up with the EU, and they should not be ignored.

    If we leave there is the threat the whole European project will collapse

    If we don’t leave the whole European project will collapse, it will just take a bit longer !

    There are possibilities that Holland and Denmark might also have referenda should the UK vote to leave.

    In France Front Nationale is also gaining popularity, and with the UK a massive net contributor gone, the other contributors would be expected to make up the shortfall (??)

    It seems that the only two contributor countries wanting to stay are Germany & Austria. All the recipients of course want to stay – so the PIGS, and Eastern Europeans. That doesn’t seem an attractive block to be underwriting at all !

  15. THOUGHTFUL

    I believe the EU would be weakened by Brexit but not destroyed.

    There was a good article in the New Statesman a while back which drew a parallel with the former Yugoslavia. The point was that it is the second state to leave a federation that causes the spiral of collapse.

    A rump Yugoslavia could have survived without Slovenia, but after Croatia left, the whole Federation disintegrated with disastrous consequences.

    Likewise, if Britain left then another country leaving could trigger disintegration. I think the Netherlands is a more likely candidate than France as Geert Wilders is in a stronger position than Marine Le Pen.

  16. Thoughtful

    Which poll was that post in relation to?

    The Lucid Talk poll asked about reasons for taking a particular stance, but your point doesn’t seem to have been mentioned by anyone!

  17. Now that we have Nicola Sturgeon talking of ‘best of both worlds’ and Boris saying we are big enough and rich enough to stand on our mown, for the sake of consistency I feel I ought to state my belief that, as I said with the Scottish referendum, if there is is a leave vote in June, we will have a second chance to vote. While the dynamics are different, I believe the outcome of a yes/leave vote would be very similar.

    With the Scottish referendum, Scots were being asked to vote with no clear idea of what the independence option really meant. This was helpful for the SNP, who effectively made it up, suggesting anyone who criticised the vision was scaremongering and negative.

    If there had been a yes vote, even without the oil price crash, my belief was that the realities of the situation would be beginning to bite. The oil economics of the next few months would make this a certainty, I suspect. A narrow yes vote would be hard to sustain if people started to understand the short term consequences, and a confirming vote would in my view have been a racing cert once the actual deal was known.

    With the EU, a leave vote would spark panic in parts of the UK and across the EU. To have their second largest net contributor leave would terrify the benefactor nations and dismay the northern reformists. As with Scotland, quite likely also the negative short term impacts on the UK (and there will be many) would also ppeel some leavers away once reality bites.

    As with most things to do with international law and relationships, the EU makes it up as it goes along, so pretty immediately after a leave vote the negotiations would begin, but this time with a nation committed to leave. A new settlement would be broached, and eventually voted on, with, quite probably, a different result.

    So, I suspect two very simlar paths taken, but with substantially different dynamics.

    But of course, I could be completely wrong.

  18. Over at the Times, Nicola a Sturgeon rather keen for Cammo to stay away from the Scottish Campaign to keep us in the EU.

    Her reasoning is to “appeal to their own strands of opinion”, but there is of course the possibility of fearing being tarred with the brush Labour got tarred with by the SNP during the Indy ref…

    Also over at the Times, for those who’d been wondering about the billions found down the back of the sofa in the Autumn Statement, a Select Committee saying the treasury “broke the rules to make watchdog change its forecast”, after looking at the private email exchanges between the treasury and the OBR in the days before the Autumn Statement. Who’dathunk?

  19. There is a distinct “party political” slant to discussion on the EU referendum here. Its natural I suppose, because ( within the constraints set by the owner) it runs through most of our exchanges.

    But surely on this issue, whether you are a Labour voter or a Conservative voter is irrelevant. If you are DC or JC , you both want to stay in. Clearly they want to try & build very different sorts of EU. But those choices don’t feature in the Referendum question. They will both vote to stay whilst having entirely different concepts of a “good” EU.
    And if you are John Redwood , or Gisela Stuart you both want to vote to leave, whilst having entirely different ideas about the sort of UK you want outside the EU.

    There may be lots of Press stuff about the differences of opinion within Labour & within Conservatives at Westminster. But this has no relevance for the UK voter in this Referendum.

    Watching the statement in HoC & subsequent questions. DC in very authoratitive mode. You would expect that after his recent very direct exposure to every element of significance in the EU .
    structure.

    Boris’ question was batted away & in general, Outers are not making any big hits on DC.

    The key element of his case seems to be the accusation of “leap in the dark” at the Outers. When he makes that point with reference to cross border security & terms of trade I think its a powerful doubt to sow. In particular his reference to the two year period for the Leave process & the uncertainty of what ( if any) arrangements will have been made by then is, I think telling, when set against the variety of supposed ” independence ” models being mooted by Outers.

  20. “This was helpful for the SNP, who effectively made it up, suggesting anyone who criticised the vision was scaremongering and negative.”

    ——-

    There’s another aspect, which may be a factor in the EU ref: the “too wee, too poor etc.” gambit.

    Time and again in the Indy ref., the pro-Union brigade were challenged to cite a positive case for staying in the union.

    Which they duly did. Stay in the union, and you get to stay fully involved in sterling, you get your banks bailed out, you have no queries over EU membership or NATO etc. etc.

    …Whereupon they were met with shrill cries along the lines of “OMG!! You’re saying we can’t survive without you is that it?!!”

    Well, no, that wasn’t it, they were just citing benefits as instructed. But it got twisted into summat else, and in the process the positive case was sidelined and they remained tarred with the negative brush.

    There’s a lot of tarring these days…

  21. ALEC

    Re your ” pretty immediately after a leave vote the negotiations would begin, but this time with a nation committed to leave.”

    Cameron used this in HoC as a weakness of Out-not a strength.

    His response was -so you don’t really want to leave at all-you want to bluff them into giving more. This a campaign to vote Leave so that we can stay In .

    I think its a telling point , particularly when added to the “leap in the dark” accusation & the Article 50 timetable.

    Interesting stuff.

  22. Unfortunately there hasn’t been much polling across the entire EU, and I can’t remember now where I saw the piece about a Dutch exit, however there is an interesting article on Wikipedia outlining the levels of Euro scepticism in various member countries with some of them showing a greater level than others.

    Polling across the entire EU is a big ask to say the least, however one poll which was carried out showed every country bar France did not want the UK to leave.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism#Denmark

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11088089/All-EU-countries-want-Britain-to-stay-except-France.html

  23. “There is a distinct “party political” slant to discussion on the EU referendum here. Its natural I suppose, because ( within the constraints set by the owner) it runs through most of our exchanges.”

    ——–

    Don’t blame me, I’m keeping out of it….

  24. @Colin

    “But surely on this issue, whether you are a Labour voter or a Conservative voter is irrelevant. If you are DC or JC , you both want to stay in”

    In theory, but in practice (for political reasons) everyone within one campaign, whether in or out, needs to be able to claim credit for ‘winning’; as well as being able to assign blame for ‘losing’.

  25. Alec

    “As with most things to do with international law and relationships, the EU makes it up as it goes along, so pretty immediately after a leave vote the negotiations would begin, but this time with a nation committed to leave.”

    Since that is the procedure laid down in the Lisbon Treaty, what else would you expect to happen, but for negotiations to start? And such negotiations are only scheduled to happen once a state has declared its intention to leave the EU after the mandatory 2-year period, so your “this time” seems a little unnecessary.

  26. Just gotta mention this little snippet from the Times because it’s a bit of an eye opener. The gap in life expectancy between the rich and poor in Britain is widening for the first time since the Victorian era.

    The richest five percent of men are living 96.2 years on average. 34.2 years longer than the poorest ten percent.

    The richest women live an average of 98.5 years…

    The poor are living far longer than in ye olden times, however…

  27. Carfrew

    “Over at the Times”

    Are the Times simply reporting what lots of us saw on BBC’s Sunday Politics?

    I doubt if any parties on the Remain side in Scotland – whether SNP, Labour, Tory, Green or LD – would see a flying visit from Cameron as helpful to the campaign to keep Scotland and the UK in the EU.

  28. @Colin – equally however, a telling point for the leavers is that ‘this is it’. Vote remain, and the chances of the UK seeing meaningful reforms will be swatted away by the EU.

    But actually, Cameron saying a leave vote is actually a vote to remain on better terms is an enormous strength for the outers, and drawing attention to it just helps.

    This is precisely whay the French wanted the agreement tp state that there would be no renegotiation after a leave result. It terrifies them, as they would face losing a large chunk of th EU budget, and we know ho alone cut it by nearly 10%.

  29. London Evening Standard (almost) reporting a BMG poll, in somewhat lurid language”

    When a random sample was asked how a Boris recommendation to leave would affect their vote, the Stay share plunged by nine per cent and the proportion of undecideds shot up by 10 per cent.

    The effect was highest among young voters, those not normally interested in politics, and those who did not vote in last year’s election — indicating Mr Johnson reaches people who are beyond regular politicians.

    Dr Turner said: “This is a direct effect of Boris. The Mayor is eating directly into the Remain campaign. It is not dir-ect switching … but a significant group that had planned to vote Remain but becomes undecided. It suggests these people are suspending their verdicts until they hear what he has to say.”

    No details as to who or where was polled.

  30. @Alec

    I think you are right. A significant number will vote Leave so as to bring about a more serious renegotiation.

    Anyone who thinks we will simply leave if that is the vote is pretty naïve, in my view.

  31. @Millie

    Surely a vote to leave is a vote to leave, not a vote to renegotiate. The same was true of the Indyref. There was no suggestion that a vote to break up the UK was really a vote to redraft the 1707 Act of Union.
    Obviously all the trade deals which we have automatically at present with the EU will need to be ‘re-negotiated’, but such negotiations will be from a position considerably weaker than that presently held by the UK within the EU (IMO).

    On another note, I would have thought that, given the massive press bias and the ‘characters’ who are in the ‘out’ camp, is it not a bit risky for the SNP MPs to assume that Scotland will vote to remain in the EU?

    All this, plus Donald Trump doing well in the Republican primaries, reminds me of that saying: Quem Jupiter vult perdere, dementat prius.

    I hope the ‘in’ campaign wins, north and south of the Border, but I’m not assuming anything.

  32. Latest bookies odds on EU Referendum:

    Stay: 4/9
    Leave: 7/4

  33. john b
    ” given the massive press bias ”

    John, the massively pro EU BBC has over 70% of the news media market in the UK so any amount of scepticism by the other media outlets will be simply lost.

    Over the past 7 years the BBC has received £22.5 million from the EU to promote its interests, and even though MPs have warned it about the levels of bias, the BBC continues to ignore them, knowing they have no tools with which to enforce impartiality upon them.

  34. Carfrew

    Comparing to ye olden times, it is important whether you are talking about life expectancy at birth or at adulthood.

    The former is strongly influenced by child mortality.

  35. “Are the Times simply reporting what lots of us saw on BBC’s Sunday Politics?”

    ————

    Dunno. I didn’t get to see the Sunday Politics, ‘cos was busy helping my partner sort out the car after someone had seemingly reversed into it overnight, so thanks for bringing that up…

  36. @Hawthorn

    Well yeah. If I was taking the special case of just adult mortality I’d have specified that.

  37. Yeah sorry about hitting your car, Carfrew ;)

  38. Polltroll

    Do we just call him Frew now? :-)

  39. I love how, in the mainstream media, Boris has overnight suddenly turned from a lovable rogue who is harmless at worst, to a cynical careerist and vicious backstabber putting himself before his country.

  40. Lol, it wasn’t my car, it was my partner’s. I shall pass on your heartfelt concern!!…

  41. Carfrew

    I suspect you’ll still lose the use of your own car. :-)

  42. Car fr ew?

    Car fr ‘er indoors, that’s ew!

  43. @oldnat

    She’ll use her mum’s car.

    @Neil A

    The police peeps asked if someone had left a note, or if there was any cctv. Of which there was neither. Whereupon police peeps informed that they were closing the case. Should we blame the cuts?…

  44. @Carfrew

    You can get dash cams that take an image should you car get hit.

    One is on my shopping list very soon.

  45. @ John B

    As you say, all the trade deals, and much else, will have to be renegotiated. The ‘degree’ to which we will leave will be under discussion.

    I don’t see Leave and Remain as black and white – there is a lot of room for manoeuvre in between.

    What happens if Merkel et al say that we can control the free movement of EU citizens, and thus limit net immigration, if we ‘remain’?

    Just an example, and probably a bad one, but you get the drift. The negotiations will take a long time and be complicated.

  46. @Carfrew.

    I’d blame reality, really.

    There’s only three lines of enquiry. Witnesses, cameras and an honest driver (either leaving a note, or contacting the police to report that they’d had an accident and hadn’t been able to exchange details).

    Short of that, you’d be looking at something like taking paint samples, carrying out spectroscopy and then trying to eliminate potentially tens of thousands of vehicles.

    Even in the Days of Plenty, no police force would have done all of that, unless someone had been killed or seriously injured.

    You could try leafletting the addresses in the local area. I doubt the police bothered with any proper house to house. But the chances that a witness saw what happened, bothered to note the registration number and then didn’t bother to call the police is pretty small.

  47. @Millie,

    I’m sure there will have to be a whole slew of new treaties, if we leave, but I’m not sure we’ll be starting from scratch. There are quite a few options, ranging from “trading on the same terms as before” (in relation to non-EU nations – at least as a temporary measure) to “trading on the same terms as X” (in relation to both EU and non-EU nations).

    The there is a very old concept called Most Favoured Nation trading status. It may be as simple as agreeing with each of our partners that we will extend MFN status to one another, thereby making it clear that no impediment to trade can be applied that doesn’t apply to all of our rivals.

    It saddens me that, like with the IndyRef, the debate has already headed for extremes. If we stay in the EU, we’ll be OK. If we leave the OK, we’ll be OK. If Scotland had left the UK, she’d be OK. If she stays in the UK, she’ll be OK.

    People are ramping up the implications as a rhetorical device.

  48. Carfrew

    Okay, just checking. :)

  49. “What happens if Merkel et al say that we can control the free movement of EU citizens, and thus limit net immigration, if we ‘remain’?”

    By June, she might be saying that anyway.

  50. This is probably dangerous ground for me here but I have a Scotland-related question: If ‘remain’ were to prevail by, say 55:45, would Nicola Surgeon consider the matter of Brexit to be settled for ‘at least a generation’?

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