There are two new polls on the EU referendum today. While the YouGov and ComRes polls conducted after the draft renegotiation showed a sharp movement towards LEAVE, these two paint a far steadier picture (though given one is online and one was conducted by phone, their overall figures contrast with each other!). ICM’s last poll had shown LEAVE nudging ahead, today’s new online figures are back to REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 39% (tabs here). Ipsos MORI’s latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36% – virtually unchanged from their previous poll (tabs here).

MORI also released their monthly voting intention figures, which stand at CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%


353 Responses to “Latest MORI and ICM referendum polling”

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  1. Top of the Green list for H&I is John Finnie MSP.

    Not only is he a sitting MSP and we’ll know but as an ex SNP member (He left over NATO) and former leader of Highland Council and Councillor in Inverness I think he will poll higher than the Green average because of local recognition.

    On that basis I would suspect he would be more likely to get elected than UKIP, but if we have a June referendum UKIP might be more in the news in the run up to May so that might give them an artificial boost.

    Countering that is the fact that UKIP in Scotland seem to spend more time in the Press dealing with scandals than campaigning.

    If because of Cameron we end up with UKIP MSP’s the Tories will be even less popular than now…if that is possible!

    Peter.

  2. ToH: “I think they feel much closer to people who have migrated from the sub continent and successfully integrated into British society than they do to most Europeans.”

    That is an interesting proposition and one that is testable by polling.

    I’d have thought the opposite, in the country as a whole, but of course you were characterising your own social circle and locality, where attitudes may be atypical.

  3. ProfHoward

    I thought Cameron was sticking to his “core nationalist sentiment” when he reused that phrase.

    I note that the Brit nationalist DUP have come out for Leave, but what are the Brit nationalist UUP doing?

    Is this part of the power contest between the two Brit nationalist parties in NI, with the Assembly elections in mind?

    The main Irish nationalist parties seem to be solidly on the Remain side.

  4. I saw a picture of those in the Cabinet backing leave and they looked like a bunch of untrustworthy wierdos…. then I saw the rest of the Cabinet…..and so did they!

    Peter.

  5. I heard this one on Immigration;

    “We have to plug the leaks into Britain….but luckily we have an army of Polish plumbers!”

    Peter.

  6. Oldnat the UUP have not decided yet. I think they might go for a remain position but its hard to call.

  7. ProfHoward

    I do hope the UUP aren’t going to do a Boris, and try to build the tension as to how they will jump. :-)

  8. @PeterCairns(SNP) are there other prominent SNP members and/or Labour members who have left to join the SGP?

  9. Boris has sided with the out camp in the last few moments.

    I think the UUP will probably back the remain camp.

  10. @Catmanjeff
    “if [the proportion of] support for the Democrat goes down, [the proportion of] support for the Republican must go up if there are no undecided or third party voters {and the supporters put their intentions into practice}.”
    That is an obviously true statement {with my brackets added} . Without brackets it is neither obvious nor true. It may well be that the authors meant what you say, but they didn’t actually say it. That hides a possible source of error if polls are used to predict future behaviour in an election – and if they are not intended to do that, what is the point of a question asking how the respondent might vote?
    One can talk about the proportions changing and lose sight of the possibility that the actual numbers of voters supporting R may not change.
    In the poll results I have seen, percentages are arrived at as proportions of those responding, not as proportions of those who might have responded.
    In general, a clearer understanding of what is happening is obtained by comparing actual quantities, rather than their proportions. It is also important to state clearly what % of what is meant.
    For example what is meant by:
    If R has 40% of the vote, and R’s share increases by 5%, while D has 50% of the vote and D’s share increases by 3% …
    Does that mean R’s share goes to 45% and D’s 53% ?
    Or R goes to 42% and D to 51.5% ?
    Specifying the actual votes and the actual changes avoids any ambiguity.

  11. @profhoward

    I’m not sure where Willie Rennie is well regarded but polling indicates that it is not in Scotland. Surbiton perhaps?

  12. @alec

    ‘re Brexit negotiations, what should we make of the UK ‘s negotiating weight in the light of the outcome of Cameron’s negotiations to date? Obviously it would help voters make up their minds if the Brexiters could indicate what the UK would be trying to negotiate.

  13. PETER CAIRNS (SNP)

    Not as weird as the Scottish Government.

  14. Hireton

    I heard that Rennie had a reputation that was better than that of his party and that on this measure Rennie actually came out very well.

  15. Alexander Boris de Pfeffal Johnson to officially reveal his hand at 1700GMT

  16. RAF

    Hopefully he will have ensured he has clean fingernails before revealing his hand – and what will the other hand be doing in the meantime?

    On such questions do the fate of nations rely. :-)

  17. Johnson has always been pro-EU, a snag for him.

  18. ProfHoward

    Though he may have calculated that Remain will win, and the disaffected right wing English voters will stay with the Tories under his leadership.

  19. @profhoward

    In the most recent Survation poll Rennie had the joint worst favourability rating (-7%) of the Scottish party leaders alongside Dugdale. By comparison Sturgeon was at +25%.

  20. Hireton that is interesting. Had heard that Rennie was well-thought-of. Surprised Dugdale does not score more highly.

  21. @OldNat

    Lol!

  22. @TOH

    “..that i know would consider themselves in anyway European.”

    I’m intrigued to know what they feel makes someone European and why a group of north west Europeans would exclude themselves from that definition.

  23. Whatever happens in the referendum, it makes more sense for Boris Johnson’s career to campaign for “out”. I expect a Labour/Corbyn style grassroots/MP split in the Tories which he can exploit. Cameron is on borrowed time now.

  24. So it’s Bo Go then……

  25. Sorry if this question has been asked before but will any of the polling for the EU referendum include British expats in the EU who will presumably have the right to vote as long as they comply with the 15 year rule? In a tight vote they might be important.

  26. @Hawthorn

    If Leave wins, DC will almost certainly have to resign and Boris stands a very good chance of being PM.

    If Remain wins, Boris’s political future will be very uncertain. There may well be a grassroots/parliamentary party split but as the nation would have settled the issue in a referendum, DC’s hand in the party would be immeasurably strengthened. He could even decide to fight another GE.

    Boris has to either hope Leave wins, or that he plays such a low key part in the campaign that he remains effectively on the fence, such that he leaves open the possibility of a senior position should the Tories win the 2020 GE.

  27. @Hawthorn

    For sometime politics in the UK has been fragmenting.

    I’m not sure where it started, but it has seen the rise of UKIP, Labour now looks pretty shattered, the Lib Dems are almost extinct, Scotland has risen on a tide of self belief that has make the SNP a big force and nearly took Scotland out of the Union…

    We now face an EU Referendum, that coud turn the direction of country.

    Perhaps these ripples are lapping at the doorstep Conservative Party HQ.

  28. RAF

    I have a feeling that Cameron will end up being despised by many Tories in a similar way to Blair was post-Iraq in Labour. I don’t think he will be safe if remain wins (but indeed dead meat if leave wins it).

  29. I think there is no chance of “LEAVE” winning. Lets get real.

    The three main UK parties are REMAIN while the SNP also offer remain their staunch support. Thus all main bases are covered for remain side.

  30. I notice that Boris has had a haircut. Trying to look Prime Ministerial?

  31. Hawthorn: his press conference was nevertheless very Boris.

  32. ProfHoward

    And carefully constructed by him to give that impression – somewhat George Bush-ist in a distinctively English upper class way. :-)

  33. The three main UK wide (greater part of the) Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats, with the strong support of Nocola Sturgeon’s SNP in Scotland, all on the same page offering support for the REMAIN side can one really expect the people to vote other than Remain?

  34. Oldnat he may be constructed that way but he pulls if off quite naturally, that is he seems less false than, e.g., Cameron or Blair.

  35. @ProfHoward

    I expect that ‘Remain’ will win comfortably, but the ripples will spread for years.

    Look at Scotland. Despite losing the referendum, the SNP have gone from strength to strength. Those parties who made up ‘Better Together’ campaign have not got out the wreckage their car-crash, despite winning.

  36. Correction:

    @ProfHoward

    I expect that ‘Remain’ will win comfortably, but the ripples will spread for years.

    Look at Scotland. Despite losing the referendum, the SNP have gone from strength to strength. Those parties who made up ‘Better Together’ campaign have not got out the wreckage of their General Election car-crash, despite ‘winning’ the referendum.

  37. Catmanjeff

    “Look at Scotland. Despite losing the referendum, the SNP have gone from strength to strength. Those parties who made up ‘Better Together’ campaign have not got out the wreckage of their General Election car-crash, despite ‘winning’ the referendum.”

    I have heard a highly-regarded commentator saying that it is only a matter of time for SNP to lose support, as they cannot defy the laws of political gravity in the longer term.

  38. I have heard a highly-regarded commentator saying that it is only a matter of time for SNP to lose support, as they cannot defy the laws of political gravity in the longer term.

    The commentator is right.

    I bet Labour, Lib Dems and the Conservatives are glad they are not in the perilous position that the SNP find themselves.

    ;-)

  39. “Events, dear boy”. [Boris declaring for Out] At last the Macmillan quote comes into its own.

    Whatever my personal opinions this must mean all bets for the referendum are off.

    From one point of view I think the Conservatives must be mad to go for this referendum and a possible spit when the official opposition seemed to offer a likely Conservatve win in 2020.

    What next? Will other parties rise? Watch out for the LibDems…

  40. split (probably)

  41. Is there now not a distinct possibility that dissident Conservative, Labour and even Liberal Democrat voters will support UKIP in the Scottish parliamentary elections, if they favour “leave” but their respective parties favour “remain”

    And how is this going to impact the various local election results, just as UKIP’s bloom.looked like it was starting to fade?

    How does a party run a cohesive election campaign for the Welsh Assembly and Scottish Parliament, while at the same time your Party is engaged in a divisive referendum to “remain” or “leave” the EU.

    In contrast I assume the Liberal Democrats, SNP and Greens are all united around “remain” and UKIP around “leave”.

    Thinking back to the 1992 Charlottetown Accord referendum in Canada I am reminded that:

    “…the biggest result of the referendum, however, was the effect of most of Canada’s population voting against an agreement endorsed by every first minister and most other political groups, and most media. Noteworthy was the capacity of the Canadian people to not be stampeded by extreme media and political pressure to endorse the Accord. This stinging rebuke against the “political class” in Canada was a preview of things to come.”

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlottetown_Accord#Support

    I think it is 124 days to “referendum” E-day and perhaps each of us should remember just how wrong the pollsters were about the outcome of the 2015 GE.

  42. ANDY

    “Is there now not a distinct possibility that dissident Conservative, Labour and even Liberal Democrat voters will support UKIP in the Scottish parliamentary elections, if they favour “leave” but their respective parties favour “remain””

    I also wondered about that. Though some Scottish commentators say that UKIP has not such a strong presence in Scotland.

    Perhaps any charismatic high-profile euro-skeptic Scottish politicians that put themselves forward to the media might also gain, say if there are any in the Scottish Conservatives.

    Where does this leave the Scottish Conservatives?

  43. I have seen view expressed that if the UK leaves the EU it makes it actually harder for Scotland to leave the UK because the international frontier would be more significant and important– one would no longer be talking about Scotland and rUK being just neighbouring EU countries but instead they could be in quite different trade zones.

  44. ProfHoward @ Andy Shadrack

    Worth remembering that there are also Welsh and Northern Irish Assembly elections, as well as the Scots GE in May. Londoners will also consider their election to be important too.

    UKIP might well make a stronger showing in Wales, given their strength there.

    I presume that UKIP won’t pick up votes from the Nationalist community, and the DUP will get any Leavers in the Unionist one.

    In Scotland, the shifting allegiances among Unionist voters excites some small interest. It certainly seems possible that UKIP might make gains at Tory/Labour expense on the List. If they stand in the Tory target seats (where their vote is also higher), they could gift the SNP all 73 FPTP constituencies.

  45. @ProfHoward.

    That’s been on my mind too.

    Unless Scotland could negotiate some sort of simultaneous “Scotland Out of UK Out of EU” arrangement where they inherited the UK’s current arrangements, then the consequences of independence could be quite stark. A period outside the UK and the EU, application for admission, adopting the Euro, borders with the UK etc.

    I am fairly certain that if there’s a Leave vote in the EuroRef that there will be a second IndyRef. I’d put the chances of Out winning it at less than 50%.

  46. ( This argument applies to the Irish-UK border too. In the event of a UK EU exit then this border would be as significant as the hypothetical one between England and Scotland would be after an IndyRef with an Out win. )

  47. ProfHoward

    I’ve raised that point about the Irish-UK border on here before.

    The response seemed to be (from English folk!) that they didn’t give much of a damn about the situation in NI. It was only the English border they were concerned with.

    Bloody Nationalists! :-)

  48. @catmamjeff and profhoward

    It is certainly possible that the referendum could shake the political scene up especially in England (although the 75 referendum didn’t). The Scottish experience might not be a good guide however. The SNP had formed the SG since 2007 and won an overall majority in 2011, three years before the Indie referendum and had a solid base of MPs in the UK Parliament. The SNP did not suddenly become popular.

    I assume @profhoward’s expert who is predicting an imminent demise for the SNP is from the same stable as the one who regards Willie Rennie as well regarded!

  49. @profhoward

    Not sure why a brexiter would vote UKIP in the Scottish GE in May when they have a vote in a referendum in June unless you think the referendum exposure would suddenly make UKIP a more popular party in Scotland even though they have a strong anti-Scottish strand in their UK policies ( they got 1.5% of the vote in the UK GE last year compared to 14% in England).

  50. There is the Greenland Option.

    Greenland left the EU while Denmark remained by designating Greenland as no longer within the EU.

    Both the Channel Islands and Isle of Man are part of the U.K. but neither are in the EU.

    The Falklands aren’t in the EU but both the Canaries and Reunion in the Indian Ocean are.

    We could just see the UK agree to add England, Wales and Northern Ireland to the list of parts outwith EU treaties.

    Northern Ireland could be interesting because if the UUP vote to stay along with the Nationalist SDLP and Sinn Féin, we could see only England and Wales voting to leave.

    If it was only Wales I could see some argue that if that’s what people wanted it should be allowed the same status as the Isle of Man….it could be a good tactic for UKIP in the Assembly elections if it wasn’t for the fact that they wouldn’t want Wales to go a different direction from England.

    PC could go for Wales Out after a Welsh leave vote but they are pro Eu I believe!!!!

    May we live in interesting times!

    Peter.

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