There are two new polls on the EU referendum today. While the YouGov and ComRes polls conducted after the draft renegotiation showed a sharp movement towards LEAVE, these two paint a far steadier picture (though given one is online and one was conducted by phone, their overall figures contrast with each other!). ICM’s last poll had shown LEAVE nudging ahead, today’s new online figures are back to REMAIN 43%, LEAVE 39% (tabs here). Ipsos MORI’s latest telephone figures are REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36% – virtually unchanged from their previous poll (tabs here).

MORI also released their monthly voting intention figures, which stand at CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 12%, GRN 3%


353 Responses to “Latest MORI and ICM referendum polling”

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  1. Colin

    I have no idea what Robert meant.

    Those like Robert and Dave who appear to think that “endemic corruption” is just a continental affliction from which pure British chaps are immune, brings to mind similar attitudes to the “French disease”, in former times.

    http://www.theguardian.com/books/2013/may/17/syphilis-sex-fear-borgias

  2. OLDNAT

    Robert didn’t “appear” to think that ” “endemic corruption” is just a continental affliction from which pure British chaps are immune,” , to me.

    I read nothing in his remarks to indicate that he did. Your desire to do so seems to me to be yet another example of your unwillingness to recognise any shortcomings in EU governance-even when they have been identified by one of its own institutions.

    For my part, I am beginning to come to the conclusion that cock-ups & waste at Westminster are more than enough for one taxpayer to fund-without adding those located across the Channel.

  3. Colin

    “cock-ups & waste at Westminster are more than enough for one taxpayer to fund-without adding those located across the Channel.”

    Bloody hell! Who is that poor taxpayer? S/he pays all the taxes in the UK AND has to fund the shortfalls in the other 27 EU states?

    If I were him/her, I’d move out of both the UK and the EU immediately – moving to Isle of Man or the Channel Islands would do it.

  4. Colin
    Thanks for stepping in. Yes indeed you appreciated what I was referring to. It is reported on every year.

    I’m afraid I have a habit of commenting and then disappearing for hours or even days before coming back. Today it was to walk the dogs then take the opportunity to cut the grass whilst it was fine.
    Maybe ‘incompetance’ would have been a better word.

  5. Robert Newark

    We agree! “It” is reported every year in the EU-hostile press, and always reported mistakenly.

    Given the paucity of balanced news on the EU in the UK, the effect of “a drip-drip-drip process over months, if not years” means that “newspapers have an impact on readers who never think about, let alone question, the propaganda they consume.”

    Sadly, that does leave “The British are dangerously ill-informed about the EU referendum”

    https://opendemocracy.net/ourbeeb/mike-berry/british-are-dangerously-ill-informed-about-eu-referendum

  6. ROBERT

    I understood what you meant.

    So did OLDNAT I suspect. Its just that he can’t bring himself to acknowledge the fallibility of anything to do with the EU-even when an EU institution spells it out every year.

    Its the Jaques Santer syndrome-and we know where that led.

    …..actually to Neil Kinnock come to think of it :-

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/3742148.stm

  7. @ “the EU-hostile press”

    I don’t think the European Court of Auditors would accept that characterisation of their “reports” .

    http://www.eca.europa.eu/en/Pages/MissionAndRole.aspx

  8. This is so typical of Gove-deeply thoughtful & founded on strongly held principles::-

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-michael-goves-full-statement-on-why-he-is-backing-brexit-a6886221.html

    But who is going to listen to him-a politician with the popularity ratings of a nasty smell.?

    But perhaps the question should be -who is going to be persuaded by him?

    Left of Centre , Public Sector workers who hated his education reforms , already committed to EU? -nope.

    Right of Centre voters who approved of his education reforms, and think he should still be in charge of them?- hmmm

  9. Still waiting for the opinion polls to find some consistency….

    Tories 39%

    Labour 33%

    Just a six point gap here now.

  10. @Michael Siva

    If you like to know the margin of error for the difference between two parties, try this:

    https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/MOEFranklin.pdf

    :-)

  11. @Colin

    While not from Michael Gove’s side of politics, I do rather like him.

    I always find it worth listening to him (even if I don’t agree with him very often).

    He’s not a cardboard cut out party man.

  12. @Colin: it really would be a shame if people voted on this referendum depending on how much they liked or disliked the proponents of each side of the argument. It is however, somewhat inevitable, particularly as the electorate are somewhat underinformed about the situation. Speaking of which…

    @Oldnat: I really don’t know how much more the BBC could be doing to inform Brits about the EU. Every day on their website there seems to be some new “EU for dummies” video. Ultimately the press is pretty powerless if the electorate can’t be bothered to learn. You can lead a horse to water but you can’t make it drink.

    Overall, this place is getting unpleasantly partisan. I’d really like it not to be like the other 99.9% of the internet.

  13. @Oldnat
    “Robert and Dave who appear to think that “endemic corruption” is just a continental affliction from which pure British chaps are immune”
    300 million Euros (if all the clawback is related to a single year – is that what you meant? – is about 1/25 of 7500 M Euros, which is itself about 5% of the EU budget. That is means UK ‘s share of ‘endemic corruption’ is about in line with other member states ‘overpayments and errors’.
    I am not so naive as to believe that true corruption would be as easy to detect as ‘overpayments and errors’. Nor am I so naive as to take any of the information from press reports as the base for my judgement of EU performance and practice.
    I merely say that based on my reading of the EEC Directives from the 1980s I am in no way surprised at the later travel towards ‘ever closer unity’.
    For what it is worth, in the 1980s as part of a law degree course I did study one of the earliest formal courses on EU law and its relation to UK law, and more recently I have read the Lisbon Treaty (though many of our MPs who voted for it did not, if press reports are believable.)
    The information is out there, but those who spoon-feed it to the public usually have their own axe to grind. Forgive the mixed metaphor.

  14. STATGEEK
    Ta very much!

    You’re welcome. I usually try the Electoral Commission website first for that sort out information. Although they don’t make it easy to find, if you search around a bit it’ll generally pop up. I found that PDF from a link in the PDF for candidates and agents.

  15. Catmanjeff’s link includes the statement:
    “if support for the Democrat goes down, support for the Republican must go up if there are no undecided or third party voters.”
    Unless between the two parties the proportions are different of those declaring their intention to vote R or D, but not in fact voting at all in an actual election,
    (To go to extremes to make this clear, if the VIs are equal (say 50% each) but no Democrats vote, and all Republicans do, the R’s have it handsomely. Support for the Republicans may appear to have gone up – they get 100% of the vote – but in fact have exactly the same number of votes predicted.)

  16. @Dave

    If you assume the quoted line refered to the proportion of the vote specifically, then that fixes it doesn’t it?

    “if [the proportion of] support for the Democrat goes down, [the proportion of] support for the Republican must go up if there are no undecided or third party voters.”

  17. Polltroll

    Cardiff Uni had specific suggestions as to how the BBC could help, and the research quoted demonstrates its necessity.

    As to partisanship, I wholly agree. For my part I’m just as happy to ridicule nonsense from Remainers as from Leavers.

    Rifkind’s “I think they would be dancing in the Kremlin if the UK was unwise enough to leave the EU” has to rank alongside George Robertson’s ‘the forces of darkness would simply love it’ [on Scottish indy] for the most hyperbolic rubbish in a referendum.

    It’s an important decision, and the “tosh” [copyright Alec] from both sides debases the debate.

  18. MICHAEL SILVA.
    Hello to you, from a dark Bournemouth East, where REMAIN is romping ahead.

    That 6% gap is like the gap between Ed Miliband’s Party and the Cons, except that Ed was ahead at this stage at about 6%.

    The Lib Dem figures look a little high, again, IMO of course

  19. It is now clear that only political misfits are supporting the Leave campaign. The vast majority of leading politicians from all parties, together with business leaders and other members of the “great and good”, are now declaring their hand in favour of Remain.

    I expect a 60:40 majority (or thereabouts) in favour of Remain. But remaining in the EU is not the status quo – the trend to ever closer union will continue despite the morsels given to DC yesterday.

  20. @Dunham

    Calling people who support ‘leave’ is rather unkind.

    This referendum is about what 40m+ voters think, and given the ‘great and good’ and most leading politicians support ‘remain’, given how poorly the establishment is regarded, this could be quite meaningless.

  21. correction

    @Dunham

    Calling people who support ‘leave’ political misfits is rather unkind.

    This referendum is about what 40m+ voters think, and given the ‘great and good’ and most leading politicians support ‘remain’, given how poorly the establishment is regarded, this could be quite meaningless.

  22. via Mike Smithson

    “Mail on Sunday front page reporting 15% lead for REMAIN”

  23. CMJ

    “Calling people who support ‘leave’ political misfits is rather unkind.”

    Agreed about voters, however it’s an accurate description of the political leaders in Scotland.

    Remain : Sturgeon, Dugdale, Davidson, Harvie, Finnie

    Leave : Coburn.

  24. via Mike Smithson

    Mail on Sunday EU poll was a Survation phone poll.

  25. Old Nat

    Previous Survation polls have generally shown “leave” ahead, typically by small margin, though. This one poll looks very good for “remain”.

    On another issue, can you really claim that a 53% vote for either side in England would decide the issue for the UK? By my calculations, it would take 60% of the 83.9%UK voters in England to decide the issue on their own. All the polling to date suggests that isn’t going to happen.

  26. Mrs Clinton has won the Nevada caucus despite Sanders outspending her there.

  27. James E

    Previous Survation polls were (I think) online. This phone poll seems pretty much in line with phone polling.

    No one seems to know why the difference!

    As to the %, I was quoting someone else’s calculation, without checking it first. :-(

    Assuming same turnout levels, and even adding in the Gibraltarians, you are correct.

  28. CMJ

    I agree-the pressure to support his mate must have been substantial.

  29. Momentum have won all seats in the youth wing on a 3 % turn out.

    Are the polls accurate, this time?

  30. Here’s a great example of a really important issue that almost certainly won’t swing a single vote –
    htt p://www.theguardian.com/money/2016/feb/20/20-million-lose-out-pension-reform

    I’m feeling somewhat smug here, as the line “[millions of] people will lose out from the introduction of a new flat-rate state pension with the burden falling most heavily on low-paid private sector workers, according to analysis by leading pension experts” was something I posted on here about three years ago.

    Even more smugly, the pension ‘experts’ have now realised exactly what I was saying, that the biggest losers would be those earning under £15K, who were given preferential accrual rates of SP2 under Brown’s reforms. This category of worker stands to lose thousands of pounds under the new pension system.

    The article points out that this is a far bigger hit than the very popular tax credit cuts, now reversed, but this story is the first time I’ve heard anyone mention this (other than me) despite the fact that the numbers have been out there for at least the last four years.

    I think this is a great example of salience at work. Poor workers are having their pensions trashed completely, but not a word was spoken in their defence by anyone. Labour supported the changes, despite the fact that they will do immeasurable damage to the future retirement prospects of the poorest workers.

    Even now, I seriously doubt that there will be any polling impacts from this, largely because Labour has completely left the field on the issue when it mattered. I do wonder quite what Labour MP’s numerous ‘researchers’ have been doing all this time, as it only took me an hour to realise the full scale of the issue.

    Even if Labour had engaged on this issue, getting polling traction would have been difficult. For people earning £15,000 a year to have their pensions cut by £2,500 a year should be a huge, huge story, but voters can be so dozy sometimes when it comes to things happening more than a few months out, and the British press aren’t famous for their researching zeal.

    One thing though – perhaps we can all stop talking about ‘Brown’s pension raid’. This knocks that into a cocked hat.

  31. Alec

    Thanks for the link

    (You’re not really such a bad chap. :-) )

  32. @Candy

    Given that Hillary was hoping to win big, a 4% lead isn’t great.

    All to play for Super Tuesday!

  33. @ Catmanjeff & Oldnat

    I did not make it clear that I meant to use the term “political misfits” as a description for the ragbag of politicians (e.g. Farage, Field, Galloway, Gove, Grayling, Hoey) supporting Leave, not voters.

  34. @ Candy

    Or if I wanted to show how your post was partisan: “Low and medium income Americans’ donation kept up with Wall Street agent’s budget.”

    I really don’t think we need this here.

    More importantly from the perspective of polls, apparently among Latinos (and the youth of course) Sanders was ahead of Clinton according to the exit polls (whatever that means in the case of Nevada, where employees vote openly in the front of their employers).

  35. Cameron’s negotiations actually moved me to the leave – fortunately I have no voting right on this.

    In spite of my political views I have a strange attachment to democracy, and I don’t think it is possible to make the EU democratic.

    My view is not particularly important, but a vaguely similar thought process could make some of the Left abstain or vote for leave.

  36. Laszlo

    Of course, there lots of folk who don’t think it’s possible to make the UK “democratic” either – given the House of Lords, City of London Remembrancer etc – either!

  37. @Candy

    Outspending her since when? Clinton has been building bases of support in various states for years (the Clinton camp has been saying to the Sanders camp for some time that he would be decimated in the Midwest and the South. He lost, but it was close).

    A few months ago she was ahead by huge margins in Nevada. Sanders whittled that down to a few percentage points by caucus day.

    If I were in Hillary’s camp, I would be a little worried. I’d still expect to reach the DNC with the nomination sewn up, but I’d wonder whether all of the resources being expended on this campaign would have been better directed at the GE campaign.

  38. @RAF

    See the following:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-17/sanders-spent-nearly-twice-as-much-as-clinton-on-tv-ads-as-nevada-vote-approaches

    Sanders is blowing all his money – he’s spent heavily on advertising in Nevada, and is outspending her 2 to 1 in Denver, Minneapolis, Tulsa and Oklahoma City. She’s got more reserves than him, but she’s holding back (probably with an eye to November).

  39. Bush gone, so that’s one American dynasty ended.

  40. For now

  41. Speaking of elections anyone following the election battle emerging in Baden Wurttemberg, probably Germany’s second most “conservative” state in the south east next to Bavaria – where the CDP were in power from 1952 to 2011.

    In 2011 the Greens pipped the social democrats for second place and between them they formed a majority Green lead coalition government with a combined 71 of 138 seats.

    Latest opinion polls for the March 13th state election have the Greens closing in on the first placed CDU – see numbers with 2011 election results in brackets:

    CDU 31% (39%)
    Green 28% (24.2%)
    SPD 14% (23.1%)
    Afd 12% (-)
    FDP 8% (5.3%)
    Left 4% (2.8%)
    Other 3% (5.6%)

    Currently the combined Green/SPD coalition is running ahead of the potential CDP/FDP one, but the more conservative Afd will now hold the balance of power between the contending parties.

  42. Jeb’s withdrawal leaves the Republican nomination as a two horse race. Rubio, who will be boosted by the Bush demise, and by finishing second in S Carolina, is now effectively the only challenger to Trump.

    Sanders may have peaked, and I see that Hillary is now 1/5 to win amongst the Democrats.

  43. LASLO

    Sorry that you cannot vote in the referendum. I totally agree with you and others that it is impossible to make the EU democratic.

    However that is only one of many issues why many want to leave. Where i live very few people that i know would consider themselves in anyway European. They are much closer to the old Commonwealth and the USA.

  44. I find the comments here very useful in gauging which way the wind is blowing for a very unrepresentative minority: the well-informed politically engaged.

    The trouble is, we don’t have any analysis of the makeup of the UKPR ‘commentariat’ beyond impressions of the views of the most prominent contributors.

    So how significant is it that there seems to be a strong pro-leave majority amongst referendum contributions here? Is it just the local demographic at work – the over-representation of old folk?

    I don’t know the answer to that, but as that apparently rare beast, an older person who remains enthusiastic about the EU and subscribes to all the loftier ideals of the European movement, I do worry that the balance of comments here might reflect a situation not fully reflected in the polls – rather as ToH’s pre-election views did.

  45. “They are much closer to the old Commonwealth……”

    Indeed. I’m sure they will be asking for greater migration from the sub continent.

  46. Alec

    I think they feel much closer to people who have migrated from the sub continent and successfully integrated into British society than they do to most Europeans. I also think that they want all migration to be on a controlled basis.

  47. The secret weapon of the Leave campaign, is that youngsters are more pro-Remain, and oldsters are more for Leave. Oldsters vote in larger numbers than youngsters, ergo…..

  48. @TOH – I know – I’m just teasing.

    Interesting to see Ian DS suggesting that staying in the EU makes a Paris style attack more likely. Aside from the ethics of making politics with such events (remain can’t criticise here, as they have already used security in their campaign) it does demonstrate that many of the arguments are more balanced that might at first appear.

    As with security, other remainers have been suggesting how the UK needs to stay close to a large and stable economic bloc, whereas the last few years have told us that the EU, and specifically the EZ, is large, but deeply unstable.

    Even here though, the counter argument, that the EU is economically defective and the structure of the EZ is an economic timebomb, isn’t really the prize weapon that leavers might think. However we vote in June, we will still be a group of islands to the west of the European mainland, and the key appeal of the leavers – that we would still trade with the EU – would mean that we don’t escape from the economic folly that is the EZ, or from any anti competitive legislation from the EU.

    It’s difficult to see any specific area where the leavers could claim with any certainty they it would make a genuine difference. The only real one is migration, but even here, the facts are a little awkward. Since 2009, the country supplying the greatest annual number of inward migrants has been India (3 times, then a second and third place) and China (twice, along with a second place in 2011).

    From 2009 – 2014, the total non EU annual immigration numbers as a proportion of the overal net migration totals have been 132%, 125%, 153%, 147%, 118%, and 92%. In other words, with the exception of 2014, had the UK exercised our powers to stop immigration from outwith the EU, we would have seen net falls in migration in every year except 2014, when net migration would have been +26,000 – ‘a few tens of thousands’ as they say.

    So clearly, the recent past suggests that any problem the UK has with immigration is more to do with the fact that our governments have chosen not to control immigration, rather than our membership of the EU.

    Pretty much every argument on this referendum has a distinctly cloudly end point if the logic is followed through, which is why I anticipate a dreadful campaign, devoid of logic and reason, and pandering to one form of prejudice or another.

  49. Heard that well-regarded Scottish Lib Dem Willie Rennie leader is saying that Nicola Sturgeon is talking up Brexit in order to serve her own interests.

  50. Oldnat

    Wonder what effect this ref will have on Scottish politics. Might it cause SNP to have to use language such as “best of both worlds” and such that are contrary to core nationalist sentiment?

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