The long awaited NOP poll on voting intention in the Welsh Assembly elections next month has support in the constituency vote at CON 23%(+3), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 15%(+1), PC 20%(-1) and in the regional vote CON 24%(+5), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 15%(+2), PC 20%(nc). Changes are from the shares of the vote at the last election in 2003.

Assuming the poll is correct – and there is no great track record of success in polls for the Welsh assembly – Plaid are not enjoying the same surge in support as the SNP in Scotland and Labour’s decline is not so precipitous. The main beneficary of Labour’s drop in support appears to be the Conservatives, who are now in a relatively clear second place in Wales.

ITV projects that, were the same shares of the vote to be reflected in the election next month, the Welsh Assembly would have 25 Labour AMs (-5), 14 Conservatives (+3), 12 Plaid Cymru (nc), 7 Liberal Democrats (+1) and 2 Independents (+1). Changes are from the number of AMs returned after the last election. This would probably leave Labour unable to continue as a minority administration without coming to an agreement with an opposition party.

UPDATE: Plaid have reacted by publishing some of their private polling, conducted by Beaufort Research. It’s voting intentions amongst those certain to vote are CON 14%, LAB 37%, LDEM 14%, PC 30%. It’s not clear which vote it refers to, but either way it shows a Plaid surge and a Conservative slump. We do not, of course, have any knowledge of how the poll is weighted or conducted (though Beaufort seem to specialise in face-to-face polling), or what the other polls that Beaufort have conducted and Plaid chose not to publish showed…


29 Responses to “Actual Voting Intention in Wales!”

  1. Interesting that Labour’s constituency and list votes are now, roughly, the same; there was a sizeable gap in 2003. Even more interesting (to sad election junkies like me) is that the constituency figure in this poll is more-or-less the same as Labour’s list % in 2003.

    ITV projects that, were the same shares of the vote to be reflected in the election next month, the Welsh Assembly would have 25 Labour AMs (-5), 14 Conservatives (+3), 12 Plaid Cymru (nc), 7 Liberal Democrats (+1) and 2 Independents (+1). Changes are from the number of AMs returned after the last election.

    Bearing in mind the electoral system and the tendency of different parts of Wales to swing in different directions at the same time, ITV are probably wasting their time doing that. Still, if the popular vote numbers end up looking like this poll, you’d expect the overall seat numbers to be in that general area.

    This would probably leave Labour unable to continue as a minority administration without coming to an agreement with an opposition party.

    That’s hardly news; sometimes it seems like the Welsh media are more interested in backroom shenanigans than the election itself.

  2. It looks like a lot of the seats Plaid Cymru won in the 1999 Welsh election are going to be retained by Labour this time round, but with Labour losing a few to the Conservatives instead.

  3. Yet another flawed poll. UKIP Wales are still displaying on their website the YouGov Poll that appeared to show UKIP had 7% support. The glorious Leader Nigel Farage has himself predicted UKIP will take 2 seats.

    This pathetic NOP poll fails to mention UKIP who with all the great publicity must be on at least 10%. This poll just like all the others (apart from one YouGov poll) fails to even register UKIP.

    Chuck it in the bin with the other rubbish!

  4. As the NOP poll gives “others” 6%, which must surely include a small amount for the independents in Gwent and Wrexham, 10% for UKIP seems rather unrealistic

  5. Interesting poll Anthony, nice to finally have one. Shame that with no others to compare it to, we have no idea if its accurate, an outlier or what.

    Will be interesting if the Nats win in Scotland, but don’t achieve anything in Wales. Where would that leave the future of the UK?

    —-

    “glorious Leader”? Is he related to the “Glorious Leader Kim Jong-Il” (of North Korea). Very interesting language to be using.

  6. EVEN 7% FOR UKIP WOULD BE UNREALISTIC.

  7. This is excellent news. The Conservatives are beginning to appeal to people in Wales rather than just England. This displays that the Conservative Party is beginning to renew itself in more places.

    The Conservatives will take seats like Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan, Preseli Pembrokeshire and likely Clywd West. However, they will only slightly cut Lib-Dem majorities in Montgomeryshire and Brecon & Radnorshire if these poll findings are repeated.

    Plaid Cyrmu will be disappointed as this poll would mean them loosing out in Clywd West to the Conservatives overtaking them and possibly taking the seat from Labour.

  8. [email protected] where do you get your poll data from ? The most recent yougov poll I could find ( march) shows UKIP at 3% in the wales and midlands region and none of the yougov polls specifically states the welsh figure as a seperate figure. I did try the UKIP Wales website but found no mention of your poll. I also went back through 6 months of yougov polls and only found 7% against yougov in the males over 55 years of age category in one poll. I may have missed the joke but your comments dont seem too serious.

  9. Given that the SNP seem to be benefitting from a “time for Change” mood but PC aren’t, it may well be that to remain popular a devolved administration needs to distance itself from London when it becomes unpopular.

    Labour in Scotland seem to have been loyal, on issues like Iraq, additional powers for the Parliament and nuclear power, when as policies they have been unpopular with the public.

    Peter.

  10. Peter: I don’t know whether it says something about me, or the media here – but although I’m a political anorak (like most on this blog), I couldn’t tell you if the Welsh Assembly Labour are loyal or not to the national governments policies. In fact, I could tell you next to nothing about the Welsh Assembly at all.

    Holyrood, Scottish Labour, the SNP etc get in the news quite regularly, but the Welsh equivalents do not.

  11. Forget to add – but something I’m curious on is if Holyrood has taken off so much more because of the influence of the SNP and their campaign for independence, or some other reason. Devolution always seemed more half-hearted in Wales.

    I think the SNP may never achieve their goal of independence (though I hope you do), and they may never have yet reached government (though you will, now or eventually) . . . but I think real changes and influence have been wielded already due to the SNP.

  12. My guesses are:
    Labour 25 (-4)
    Conservatives 14 (+2)
    Plaid Cymru 12 (n/c)
    Lib Dems 7 (+1)
    Forwards Wales 1 (n/c)
    Independent 1 (+1)

    By the way, is everyone looking forward to the election replay of 1992 on BBC Parliament on Monday!

  13. I’m guessing:-

    Labour 24 (-6)

    Con 15 (+4)

    Plaid 12 (n/c)

    Libdem 7 (+1)

    Independents 2 (+1)

  14. I am puzzled by the seemingly insanely optimistic noises coming out of UKIP re winning seats in the Welsh Assembly. Nigel Farage has sounded very confident in a couple of interviews I happen to have seen. Why set yourself up for looking stupid like that if you don’t have good reason to believe you will be proved right?

  15. UKIP’s strategy seems to be stuck pre Cameron, when they were focuesed on getting dissillusioned Tories to switch.

    Now that the Tories are seen as electable and have moved to the centre, UKIP look alone on the right competing more with the BNP than the Tories.

    Peter.

  16. ”By the way, is everyone looking forward to the election replay of 1992 on BBC Parliament on Monday!”

    Harry Hayfield, at what time does it start on BBC Parliament?

  17. Philip.

    I think part of the different long term fortunes of the SNP and PC might be down to simple Geography. The bulk of Scotlands population live in the central belt, something like 4 million out of five million. Below that are the borders before Carlisle ( hardly a major city) and Newcastle.

    After that there is Cumbria and Yorkshire before you hit the bulk of the English population in the midlands and below.

    That creates a natural buffer and it’s 400 miles from London, I am not sure if Cardiff is even half that.

    From the Solway to John o Groats, let alone the Shetlands is a lot longer than the length of the border from Carlisle to New Castle.

    Wales has a border with England that is probably longer that Wales is deep, and places like Liverpool are probably closer to a lot of Welsh people than Cardiff is. The bulk of the population also falls in to two seperate zones, around Cardiff and Wrexham, which are widely spaced.

    all of which I think means that wales is probably more like Yorkshire or Devon and Cornwall in terms of regional identity than Scotland.

    That and the fact that we’re all nuts up here.

    As an aside most of the English people we have net when out canvassing, either people living in the Highlands or early Easter Tourists have been quite enthusiastic about the SNP and Independence.

    Not in the “Daily Mail”, “Get these subsidy junkies off our backs” kind of way but those that know Scotland well genuinely seem to think that we should go for it and run our own affairs.

    Peter.

  18. Those of us not of pro-Tory incliantion still remember the election night of 1992 with a horror scarecly unparalled in our lives-as a 21 year-old,to this day I recall,with hideous clarity.
    (a)The intital BBC poll,predicting 301 Tories,298 Labour,in a hung parlaiment (which probbaly would have ushered in a minority Labour govt)
    (b)Basildon staying Tory at 11.23pm-a relative watching with me said he ‘saw the blood drain from my face’
    (c)ONE happy moment-Chris Patten was unseated at Bath,and actaully looked close to tears
    (d)At his South Wales vallies count,Neil Kinnock pledged ‘hinself to the service of the British people,in any capacity whatever
    (e)By 2.30am,the BBC were predicting an overall Tory majority
    (f)Neil Kinnock concedes defeat at Walworth Road.
    ‘I am fortunate in my life,many do not share this.With rising unemployment,business failure,service cuts,this people deserved better than they got at this election.’
    I was so stunned I stared into space for half an hour or so.
    The following day was a beautiful,warm,cloudless spring day,where I live.To me it felt as if a 1950s pea-souper fog hung over me-I could not smile,feel,or scarceley think,I was so numb with pain,disappointment and so appalled at what had happened.
    (For the record,I am a pretty middle-of-the road guy,brought up by grandparents-now deceased,who saw World Wra 2,and the 1930s depression-I feel this gives me a sense of perspective)
    (I will not be vindictive and tell you about the party I threw when Tony Blair won in 1997 (lol)

  19. My predictions are as follows:~

    Labour: 23 (-7)
    Conservatives: 18 (+7)
    Plaid Cyrmu: 10 (-2)
    Liberal-Democrats: 7 (+1)
    Independents: 2 (+1)

    This would mean that to form a governing body in the welsh assembly the only combination between the main political parties would be a Conservative coalition with Labour.

    Seats that would fall to the Conservatives:
    Bridgend from Labour
    Cardiff North from Labour
    Clywd West from Labour
    Preseli-Pembrokeshire from Labour
    Vale of Glamorgan from Labour
    Ynys Mon from Plaid Cyrmu
    and a regional seat from Labour.

    Lib-Dem gains:
    Ceredigion from Plaid Cymru

    Independent gain:
    Blaenau Gwent from Labour (although they did gain it in the 2006 by-election it would still be thought of as a gain if they took it.)

  20. Sorry, Plaid Cymru and Labour could also go into a coaltion but that seems politically unlikely.

  21. The Harper Conservatives in Canada have governed with a minority government against the Liberals, New Democrats and the Bloc for over a year.

  22. And a Rainbow alliance of PC/Con/LD/Ind could also do it.

  23. btw, there is another poll out shortly according to Vaughan Roderick, with a very different result – after publishing the wrong data the other day, I am not going to repeat my mistake, other than to say that this result is closer to the Beafort poll than the NOP one.

  24. Philip said:-
    Ynys Mon from Plaid Cyrmu

    ynys Mon a tory gain ?!??????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!????!?!

  25. We understand that the Plaid poll was conducted in the first two weeks in March.
    That would suggest that their support dropped by 10% in two weeks. They’re lucky that there’s only 3 weeks until polling day or they wouldn’t have any votes left.

  26. With the March Beaufort poll giving Conservatives 14%, the NOP poll giving 24%, the Yougov poll giving 38%, you must be very happy, as it means that Conservatives will get more than 100% of the vote in May – you might even get a look-in in Merionydd….

    ANother poll out this weekend should put things in perspective.

  27. More than 100%? I keep saying that we’re going after every vote, but maybe I’m lacking ambition and should be going for more than everybody’s vote. My private polling (http://mike-wood.org.uk/privatepolling) was supposed to be tongue in cheek, but now I find out that it’s underestimating the true level of Welsh Conservative support.

    I’m sure that there will be a couple more polls between now and election day and that each party will be able to find something in at least one of them to show that they are doing better than the media / the opposion think.

    That said, unless Dwyfor Meirionnydd has a disproportionate share of Conservative voters then I’m confident that we will get rather more than the 14% across Wales that Plaid’s poll suggests.

  28. Any news on the new poll?

  29. The only reason why Conservatives are getting stronger in Wales is because of all the english people that have moved in. The Welsh can not afford to stay here anymore, so their houses are being sold to wealthy english people that only vote Conservative. People need to realise that they have to vote a Welsh based party. Plaid wants to help the Welsh look after themselves, without england stating that they are ‘looking after us’; as I have heard numerous english people say. If Ireland can look afterthemselves, then so can we. Obviously we wont get independance straight away, no-one is saying that. we need to do it in a step by step process. We need a Parliament just like Scotland. I think it would be wise in the next census to see how many english people are living here and how they are stopping us from voting for stronger powers. Plaid is for the people of Wales, the other parties seem to be for england and what’s best for england.
    We have had 8 years of Labour, we need a change. Give Plaid a chance. They want to help young Welsh people to stay in Wales. Get rid of student fees; get first time buyers onto the property ladder; give our youth the 21st century education that they deserve; help support our culture; help new Welsh businesses survive and new outside business to stay in Wales. We are the poorest nation in the UK and always have been, under english rule; we are also one of the poorest nations in Western Europe. No more. Please.