As well as the new EU poll, Friday’s Times also had a new YouGov Scottish poll. There was also a new TNS Scottish poll in the week. Topline voting intentions for Holyrood were:

YouGov (tabs)
Constituency: SNP 50%(-1), LAB 19%(-2), CON 20%(+1), LDEM 6%(+1)
Regional: SNP 42%(-3), LAB 20%(nc), CON 20%(+1), GRN 6%(nc), LDEM 5%(nc)

TNS (tabs)
Constituency: SNP 57%(-1), LAB 21%(-2), CON 17%(+5), LDEM 3%(-1)
Regional: SNP 52%(-2), LAB 19%(-1), CON 17%(+5), GRN 6%(-3), LDEM 6%(+2)

While the scale is difference, both polls have the usual overwhelming lead for the SNP. The obvious expectation is that they’ll easily secure a landslide win come May. More interesting is the battle for second place. YouGov have Labour and the Conservatives essentially equal (in the constituency vote the Conservatives are a point ahead after rounding… though this was nearly all in the rounding!). YouGov have tended to show the highest levels of Conservative support in Scotland and have had Labour only a whisker ahead of them for their last couple of polls, however other companies now seem to be showing the Labour and Conservative gap in Scotland narrowing too. TNS have the Conservatives up five points since December, bringing the gap in the regional vote down to two points, a Panelbase poll earlier this month also only had a two point gap between Lab & Con in the regional vote, MORI had the gap falling to 2-3 points in their last poll. Survation’s last Scottish poll still showed a 4-5 point gap this month, but it was down from an eight point gap in their previous poll.

Personally I’d still see the Conservatives coming second in Scotland as unlikely – while Ruth Davidson is well regarded (her approval ratings in the YouGov poll were substantially better than Kezia Dugdale’s) their brand seems almost irretrievably tarnished in Scotland. However if Scottish Labour fall far enough, I suppose it is possible. We shall see.


114 Responses to “Latest YouGov and TNS Scottish polls”

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  1. or Total Gas field…

  2. STV poll

    If a second independence referendum were held tomorrow, without any change in Britain’s relationship to the EU, 49% of Scots would cast their ballot for Yes, 45% for No and 5% said they didn’t know. With don’t knows stripped out, 52% of Scots back independence while 48% oppose it.

    However….Posed a hypothetical scenario in which Scotland votes to stay in the EU but the country overall votes to leave, 54% would subsequently back independence compared to 39% who would vote to keep the UK together. A further 7% did not know how they would vote.

    The Ipsos MORI research also indicates the SNP is on course for another landslide victory in the Scottish Parliament election in May.

    Among those likely to vote in May, 53% will give their constituency vote to the SNP, 20% to Scottish Labour, 16% to the Scottish Conservatives, 6% to the Scottish Liberal Democrats and 4% to other parties. This translates to a 33-point SNP lead over Labour.

    This is largely in line with how Scots intend to cast their second ballot for regional MSPs, except for the level of support seen for the Scottish Greens.

    Almost half (49%) say they will favour the SNP on the regional list, 19% will back Labour, 15% will support the Tories, 8% the Lib Dems and 6% the Greens. A further 2% will back other parties. Here the Nationalists enjoy a 30-point lead over the main opposition party.
    ……..
    All the political fun appears to be up north.

  3. LEFTYLAMPTON

    Both sides in the Scottish indy ref had trouble addressing some of the big economic questions however we are where we are and the No side won so I think the focus should be on what they said and not on something the Yes side said, unless we have another indy ref.

    Scotland’s place in the EU guaranteed with a No vote….?

    Pensions safer with a No vote…..?

    Oil and gas safer with a No vote ……..?

    There is quite an irony to all of this is there not?

  4. @Oldnat

    Yes, states may not be altruistic when saving banks, nor indeed London, and Barclays may have been wanting to preserve its debt market.

    But this collection of distracting squirrels does not alter my point that the UK has advantages in dealing with such things unlikely to be available to an Independent Scotland.

    Furthermore, playing with words doesn’t work any better than it did for Peter, above. Trying to suggest I have a preference is another red herring. I have not expressed a preference, and even if I had, it’s immaterial. Whether I have a preference doesn’t change the facts of the advantages the UK enjoys.

    The fact is, whatever I prefer, or don’t prefer, whether I prefer a single currency to a currency union, or even a barter system instead; whether I prefer a Twix to a Mars bar, the UK has the ability to devalue, lower interest rates, borrow cheaply, print money etc., and these are benefits independent of my preference.

    As for saying they are but one factor in the overall analysis concerning Independence, one might agree, it’s just that you guys don’t tend to factor them in!!

  5. AC

    There is a qualitative difference. The question I posed is the existential one. If we learned anything from the Euro crisis it is that relatively small economies without control of their own currency cannot have fiscal independence. Specifically, they cannot finance deficits.

    This is the only issue that really matters. Everything else is second order. Debates about whether GDP would be a percent or two higher or lower with or without independence, about whether oil price falls are a net benefit, about which scenario would be better or worse for pensions are utterly irrelevant by comparison.

  6. Carefrew.

    The “one factor” issue. Breathing is only one factor that influences your health. But if you don’t do it, controlling your cholesterol won’t do you a lot of good.

    Some factors are more fundamental than others.

  7. @Lefty

    Yes, it’s a critical factor. But according to Allan, being unable to defend the oil price and the catastrophic pup sold by the Yes campaign, he would much rather we didn’t talk about it and instead pretend the No campaign were just as bad, even though their prediction was rather more cautious.

    If we were to follow his idea of only being able to analyse what the victor says, then he should be critical of all the flak labour and Corbyn has gotten, and instead urging peeps to join him in being critical of the government. And indeed SNP won in Holyrood so we should be scrutinising them anyway, and Allan should be apoplectic at jibes concerning the demise of LiS.

    But strangely, Allan’s new rule only applies to issues that suit him. No one knows why…

  8. @Sam

    when you write “A good deal of the waters around the west coast of Scotland and the Forth approaches seem to be prospective for oil. There is oil in the Clyde which cannot be sought at present – underwater traffic” you are perpetuating a lie spread by anti-Trident campaigners.

    Horizontal drilling techniques can now reach more than ten kilometres from the well-head. This means that over 90% of the Firth of Clyde can be reached by on-shore well-heads on the Scottish Mainland, Arran and the Kintyre peninsula. The savings from an onshore well-head exceed the additional costs incurred by horizontal drilling, so any oil in the Clyde is going to be extracted by land-based wells.

  9. @carfrew

    ‘re a second referendum, I don’t think there would be a strong case in the unlikely event that Scotland votes to leave the EU and the UK votes to remain.
    A main plank of Project Fear was that the only certain way for Scotland to remain in te EU was to vote No so for the UK then to take us out of the EU against the expressed wishes of Scottish voters would be a a serious breach of what was said by the Unionists. The reverse does not apply.

    Oh and re oil we are still waiting for the £200bn oil bonanza promised by Cameron if we voted No.

  10. Of course there is always the possibility that the Scottish Government would suggest that it be allowed to continue as before if Scotland votes to stay and the rest of the U.K. voted to leave.

    Scotland could have an opt out from the UK opt out! We could continue to act as an EU member continuing both the Social chapter and being part of the CAP. We are already a European Region so working out our contribution to EU funding might not be that difficult.

    Likewise if The UK stays we could still argue not to be bound by Cameron’s renegotiation.

    Just thought I’d suggest it as an option for devilment.

    Peter.

  11. @Hireton

    “‘re a second referendum, I don’t think there would be a strong case”

    ———–

    Oh, that’s a shame. I quite like referenda. They add a little to the excitement…

  12. @Allan Christie

    – “And consider this..£1 in every £6 in Uk pensions is tied up to BP.”

    I think this is complete [email protected]

    From http://www.theactuary.com/news/2014/02/uk-pension-fund-value-passes-japan-to-become-worlds-second-biggest-market/

    UK pension fund assets were worth £2tr a year ago, and with the stock market falling by 20% since then – lets call it 30% and assume all pension assets are share equities to be really pessimistic – that would give us a total current value of ~ £1.4tr.

    Today’s Wikinvest market capitalization for BP is $85B, so lets assume that’s £59B at today’s exchange rate. This means that even if UK pension funds owned 100% of BP, it would still represent just 4.2% of total UK pension assets, or £1 in every £24.

    #getyourfactsright

  13. I heard a commentator saying that SNP vote took a dent in recent polls.

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