A quick update on some polling figures from the last few days.

ComRes released a new telephone poll for the Daily Mail on Friday. Topline voting intention figures were CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4% (tabs are here.) On the EU referendum ComRes had voting intentions of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 36%, DK 10%.

YouGov also released new figures on voting intention and the EU referendum on their website. Their lastest topline VI figures are CON 39%, LAB 30%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 17%, GRN 3% (tabs are here). On the EU referendum they have Leave slightly ahead – REMAIN 38%, LEAVE 42%, DK/WNV 20%.

Finally Ipsos MORI also released EU referendum figures (part of the monthly Political Monitor survey I wrote about earlier in the week). Their latest figures are REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 38%, DK 12%.

There continues to be a big contrast between EU referendum figures in polls conducted by telephone, and conducted online. The telephone polls from ComRes and Ipsos MORI both have very solid leads for remain, the online polls from ICM, YouGov, Survation and others all tend to have the race very close. In one sense the contrast seems to be in line with the contrast we saw in pre-election polls – while there was little consistent difference between online and telephone polls in terms of the position of Labour and the Conservatives (particularly in the final polls), there was a great big gulf in terms of the levels of UKIP support they recorded – in the early part of 2015 there was a spread of about ten points between those (telephone) pollsters showing the lowest levels of UKIP support and those (online) pollsters showing the highest levels of UKIP support. It doesn’t seem particularly surprising that this online/telephone gap in terms of UKIP support also translates into an online/telephone gap in terms of support for leaving the EU. In terms of which is the better predictor it doesn’t give us much in the way of clues though – the 13% UKIP ended up getting was bang in the middle of that range.

The other interesting thing about the telephone/online contrast in EU referendum polling is the don’t knows. Telephone polls are producing polls that have far fewer people saying they don’t know how they’ll vote (you can see it clearly in the polls in this post – the two telephone polls have don’t knows of 10% and 12%, the online poll has 20% don’t knows, the last couple of weekly ICM online polls have had don’t knows of 17-18%). This could have something to do with the respective levels of people who are interested in politics and the EU that the different sampling approaches are picking up, or perhaps something to do with people’s willingness to give their EU voting intention to a human interviewer. The surprising thing is that this is not a typical difference – in polls on how people would vote in a general election the difference is, if anything, in the other direction – telephone polls find more don’t knows and refusals than online polls do. Why it’s the other way round on the EU referendum is an (intriguing) mystery.


243 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. OLDNAT

    I don’t know how many were “debt free” -who is these days.? All Western economies are reliant on consumers who will not wait until they can “afford it” -like we of previous generations did-and certainly my parents.

    One wonders how long we can go on with our mortgaged consumption.

    As to a “secure future”-I’m not convinced that it really existed for “previous generations” any more than it does now.

  2. RMJ1

    :-)

    Some of them are actually allergic to sunlight I think .

  3. On the apparent paradox of online vs telephone; I think what changes the scores is most likely embarrassment, and so one shouldn’t just assume that all ‘don’t knows’ are equal.

    Positively identifying a party might be embarrassing, especially if you are only voting for that party to stop someone else(ie ‘shy tories’). On the EU, however, it must be MORE embarrassing to say “I don’t know”.

    So what does this mean? My guess is that some people may worry that saying “I don’t know” on the phone may lead the interviewer to think the person has UKIP leanings, when they actually really don’t like UKIP. This means that the online polls will be more accurate in terms of answers, but of course, they may be less representative as a whole.

    I’m guessing it’s somewhere in between, giving ‘REMAIN’ a modest lead, but people are so badly informed about the EU currently, that the ‘REMAIN’ vote may be softer (because a lot of people currently on the ‘LEAVE’ side REALLY want to get out). Too close to call!

  4. @Colin

    Yeah, you’re not getting it. It’s like really obvious, but you’re not gonna get it. These are like graduates, who are working in coffee shops and bars on not much more than minimum wage because career paths for the sort of jobs boomers took fore granted aren’t there as much as they use to be.

    Quoting the stat you quoted will largely obscure this.

  5. “No matter how sunny it is, there are always people who complain about the weather.”

    ———–

    It’s not complaining, that’s just a closet ad hominem. It’s simply considering reasons for the rise of the likes of Corbyn and Sanders and popularity of the young. So you look at wages and career paths and property prices and rent and how pensions are preserved for boomers more than others etc. etc. and how the rules are different for boomers and big companies and bankers consider the possibility that this just might be a reason.

  6. Popularity among the young

  7. Good afternoon all from a bright and sunny Itchen Abbas in Hampshire.

    Bit disappointed to see ole Trump get trumped in the Iowa caucuses. However for the Democrats and over all for the next US president I expect Hillary Clinton to be sitting in the Oval Office and ordering a blanket ban on Cuban cigars throughout the White House.

  8. @Allan

    Eh? Surely it’s her chance to get her own back? She might develop a fondness for cigars herself…

  9. “The employment rate for working age postgraduates increased by 1.3 percentage points to 88.3%; this is the highest Q2 rate seen since the 89.5% recorded in Q2 2007.”

    Hmmm….When, back in the heady days of the 1980’s, some areas experienced the pain of 10% unemployment, pop songs with lines like ‘we are the 1 in 10’ gave a hint of how some felt.

    Now it seems, while not completely equating employment rate with unemployment, for all manner of technical reasons, such is the low priority attached to the young, that it appears to be some kind of political triumph that over 10% of graduates have no job.

    Strange world.

  10. Going back beyond the 1980’s, on the EU, we now seem to be at the ‘Anything can happen in the next half hour’ stage. There is a deal on the table and cameron is in full on confident mode, proclaiming that a deal he would have found utterly unnacceptable twelve months ago now represents a triumph for the UK.

    I’m not sure whether the response over the next 48 hours will matter all that much to the referendum outcome, but I rather suspect the reaction may have quite a lot to do with the long term health of the Tory party.

    Listening to Cameron’s speech it did sound like a very solid deal, but the independent analysis looks far more shaky. For a start, this isn’t a deal – it’s a proposal. I’m assuming that Cameron has pushed this as far as he can, with the need now to persuade EU governments to agree. It seems certain that the proposals tabled are as good as it gets for cameron, with all the risks currently in one of the other 27 refusing to accept and so pushing the final terms still farther from Cameron’s original red lines. That would be potentially difficult for Cameron.

    Set against his rhetoric, the terms appear pretty woeful. Individual parliaments like the HoC have no veto – only if 55% of them join together can a proposal be blocked. The question has to be asked what difference this makes, as elected governments, acting through parliaments, already have similar powers.

    We won’t be committed to ‘ever closer union’, but there is no rewriting of the treaties, so technically we remain so, unless a fudge is applied.

    The deal on overseas child benefit seems very limited, and the fabled block on migration, mutated into a much softer brake, now appears even weaker, in that it needs the permission of the other member states and lasts for a very limited period.

    There are some positives he can sell, but he has fallen so far of his starting point, which was very limited anyway, that his critics will also have plenty to hit him with.

    Overall, it seems to have been an extraordinary expenditure of political energy for very limited returns, when so many other pressing issues might have been expected to be at the top of the government’s agenda.

  11. CARFREW

    @”Quoting the stat you quoted will largely obscure this.”

    No-it doesn’t. :-

    “Graduates and postgraduates continue to have higher employment rates and are more likely to work in high skill jobs2 than non-graduates”

    Graduate Labour Market Statistics
    April-June Q2 2015

    The bar chart shows “High Skilled ” employment rates for that period as :-

    66.4% for Graduates, & 78.6% for Post Graduates.

  12. Colin

    those stats are pretty useless in the context of the polling discussion – which centred around the idea that younger folk (say under 35s?) have a markedly different political outlook, due to changed circumstances, than their predecessors.

    Throwing numbers from a single quarter around, does nothing to substantiate your suspicions that things are no worse for the current younger workforce than it was for older folk back in their day.

  13. 66.4% for Graduates, & 78.6% for Post Graduates.

    So a third of all graduate are in non high skilled jobs. Isn’t that an issue?
    :ook at the CIPD reports they actually had a report saying that 20% of all job could be performed by a 10 year old. it begs two questions how much would you pay a 10 year old and the second is why is our economy built that way. (in sweden the figure is 5%) They also state that a we are under utilising our skills and that has cost us in terms of productivity since we don’t invest in our people.

    if a 10 year old can do the job? You can get a Pole whom does not speak much english to do the job. Improve the quality of the job you reduce the number of economic migrants it is why they come to the UK. Incidentally there is a shortage of engineers in Germany and compared to UK they pay around 20% more. it is why they have had less poles even though it is next door.

    It is interesting how people read the same data ;-)

  14. Biggest winner from Iowa was probably Marco Rubio, who significantly outperformed his polling figures and got the boost he desperately needed to prevent the Republican contest being a two-horse race. Instead he now faces the situation of being the establishment candidate up against two insurgents splitting the T-party vote. I’d also back him to beat either Clinton (too compromised) or Sanders (too far from the centre) should he get that far. 3-1 are decent odds, though the 10-1 on Sanders also appeals.

  15. Closer to home, I am beginning to think that these negotiations may actually harm rather than help REMAIN’s cause. Listening to PM while driving home from work today, I was struggling to stay focused while they explained the minutiae of the (still only a first draft, remember) deal – and the very fact I am posting to UKPR makes me far more interested in politics than Joe Bloggs.

    Ultimately, people do not vote for things they do not understand. The AV referendum is a case in point – the YES side tried ever so hard to explain how AV was such a good thing for democracy but probably most people didn’t ever really grasp the difference. Meanwhile all NO had to do was say, “You know that Nick Clegg? Do you like him? Well he’s a fan of this.”

  16. The idea that the baby boomers had it easy is disable. Many of my school friends had to leave school at 15 or if they were lucky 16 because there family could no longer support them – and this was at a grammar school. Some of them succeeded in a big way, one has recently retired from a position at the very top of local government having started with O levels. Their success was through ability and hard work, nothing else. In many ways today’s youth have far more opportunities, they just can’t see it.

    Of course I was self employed for most of my career, largely due to an inability to

  17. The structure of labour market is much more complicated than this discussion.

    Graduates, as a mean, earn about 77% more than non-graduates in the UK, hence many graduates earn at a much higher ratio than the 77% and a lot less. In certain jobs post-graduates earn 183% more, but in many they don’t. As to the skills level, one of the high street banks attempted to replace cashiers with A level students about ten years ago (they could carry out the job). Fortunately (?) banking is the most unionised sector, and the union could force the bank to abandon the plans.

    The reality is: because of the economic development in the UK since 1992 there is simply not enough jobs where the value added allows for high enough wages. It’s not bad or good, it is simply the way it happened. On the other hand in manufacturing the value added is 17 times of the wages, but it is wasted on management, professional services and improductive sectors (e.g. Real estate), and stolen through SAles, administrative and general expenses.

    In precision engineering wages vary enormously in the UK by regions (according to the TUC), but there is a quantifying problem as many (e.g in the NW) offer effective job guarantee. In contrast, in Germany the intra-sector wage differentials for the same job is much smaller than in the UK.

    However, Germany actually uses significantly more East European labour than the UK in the form of agency labour. As an example, butchering by Geman companies is far the most competitive in the EU and it is based on agency labour (employees have to buy the tools of trade and the quality requirements are such that skilled employees cannot reach the minimum wage). Austria on the same basis is now more competitive in sandwich-making than the UK sweatshops.

  18. @colin

    Once again, your data does not address the point as others are pointing out.

    Comparing graduates and non-graduates is not the same as comparing boomers and young adults.

    Which ought to be trivially obvious.

    Also, having a higher-skilled job doesn’t automatically mean you have much of a career path. Your career conditions might become eroded overtime.

    If formerly jobs with paid training and proper employment switch to internships and freelance, skill levels may remain the same, but career path may not so much.

  19. And it continues (stupid tablet):- largely due to an inability to keep my head down and do what I was told. It meant that 80 hour weeks were the norm when necessary but then I had an understanding wife and family. I have little sympathy for those of the younger generation who think we had it easy and want it easy themselves.

  20. @RMJ1

    No one is saying they had it easy. They are just talking about career paths.

    Boomers enjoyed full employment during their critical early years of employment which also helped. Naturally this doesn’t mean everything was plain sailing, but it helps. Strong unions also helped to improve pay and conditions.

    Mortgages were difficult for a while because of interest rates. But compare that with the cost of rent and mortgages now. Compare utility bills.

    Compare pensions, internships, etc.

    Compare costs of starting a business. Rent, rates, utilities. Do you think it hasn’t changed?

    I agree there may be more opportunities in principle. How accessible in practice is summat else.

    Look how many need tax credit top ups now compared to the sixties.

  21. It appears that the auto correct has not encountered the word risible. I have had to save it a letter at a time and delete the spaces.

  22. @RMJ

    Oh yeah, boomers worked hard to support a family and pay a mortgage. One earner could often do that though. Nowadays you need two earners usually.

    I know peeps working in bars and coffee shops, graduates, tired out after long weeks on around the minimum wage with little hope of paying a mortgage or running a family.

    And not the same future prospects. It’s not like you work hard for a bit and shoot up the ladder. It’s not like you put up with interest rates for a few years and see property price shoot up. You are unlikely to get on the ladder.

  23. RMJ

    I should add, undoubtedly, some boomers had it difficult, in the North, when their career paths were ripped away in the early eighties.

    Boomers in the South though, continue to be insulated, e.g.via the hundreds of billions injected via QE.

  24. @RMJ1

    Of course, you lived in a shoe box and had a handful of dirt tea eh?

    ;-)

  25. @CARFREW

    Sorry but I can’t agree. Tax credits didn’t exist in the 60s. People just had to get by. Two of my uncles, not much older than me, started working life as window cleaners, one had to hire his ladders for 2 shillings a week. I suppose for them the only way was up. Anything to avoid the stigma of the dole.

    I am not saying we should go back to those days or those attitudes but the idea that their careers were mapped out (or mine for that matter) is simply not true. It was a case of grabbing any opportunity that you could and hanging on tight.

  26. CMJ

    A handful?? Luxury! etc etc etc

  27. @RMJ

    You didn’t need tax credits in the sixties. You had full employment and more affordable rents and bills.

    The fact there were window cleaners in the sixties does nothing to address my points. The point is to what degree are you trapped as a window cleaner unable to further improve your lot.

    Because of full employment, better career paths, cheaper property and cost of living, cheaper degrees, cheaper bills etc… There are increasing obstacles now.

    This is before we get to giveaways like privatisations, building society shares etc., and future pension prospects.

    Even the O U, a classic escape route while working has shot up in price.

    You need to compare to see the point which pro-boomers never seem to do.

  28. @CATMANJEFF

    Don’t be silly. Housing in the North was and is cheap and food costs were and are extremely low. The fact is we expected life to be difficult, for many they were, we managed, but they are certainly no harder for today’s youth and if people stopped telling them how disadvantaged they are, I’m sure they would be fine.

  29. To be clearer…

    Because of full employment, better career paths, cheaper property and cost of living, cheaper degrees, cheaper bills etc… There were considerable advantages for boomers, where there are increasing obstacles now.

  30. @RMJ1

    It was joke.

    No more, no less.

    :-)

  31. @RMJ

    You’re not actually looking at the numbers are you. You’re just telling yourself housing is cheap

  32. And ignoring the steepling costs elsewhere.

  33. CMJ,

    I know it was a joke but I had a friend who made his living from collecting cardboard boxes and you would have him deprived of his livelihood if they were diverted to housing.

    CARFREW,
    But how many are now pulled out of full time education because their parents think they should be earning and school is a waste of time, not for the likes of them?

  34. @CMJ

    I should also add… That young peeps also have to take into account trends. What is the trend with property prices in future given immigration etc.

    You are not considering the matter from the point of view of prospects. Or looking at the totality. You can’t cherry-pick.

    Your generation didn’t have the costs of supporting boomers in their dotage either.

    Sure, some peeps ended education early. But again, look at prospects. Back then, you had full employment, could leave school and walk into a decent-paying job. Good apprenticeships abounded. Lots of nice state jobs too.

    Leaving school early is not bad news if you have prospects.

  35. @RMJ

    At the end of the day, sure, they’re trying to make summat of it.

    But you shouldn’t be surprised if they increasingly vote for more of what you guys had. Full employment, proper career paths, cheaper rents and mortgages and bills, better apprenticeships, cheaper utilities, degrees, better pensions etc. etc.

  36. @RMJ

    Apols for addressing you as CMJ, the legendary cricket commentator, a couple of posts above. Autocorrect must like cricket.

  37. @Catman

    Though I’d mention this as you’re a Green. At one of my locals, couldn’t help noticing several staff were Environmental Science grads. Couldn’t help wondering why this might be. Apparently, it’s the cuts. Another career path dried up. One of them returned to his home town to try setting up a coffee shop…

  38. Everyone will be finding this rather boring. Suffice to say that I will provide my children with a far better start than my parents could for me. Is that a good thing or not? I really can’t say.
    No-one knows what the future holds and we shouldn’t get too hung up about it. By all means plan but expect your plans to go skew wiff from time to time. A deal of my pension provision disappeared but because I was still working the position was salvageable. Besides which I find that I need less in retirement than I thought. My advice to your would be to adapt.

    CARFREW, house prices in most northern cities, especially in the less fashionable areas,are still very low by almost any standards. About 20% of Southern prices.

  39. @RMJ

    Again, compare like with like. Lots of pensions took a hit but boomers protected from some of it. Government changes protrcted boomers. The younger have taken extra hits and have to continue working longer.

    Also as cost of living worsens more of them can’t afford pensions.

    True, some boomers are able to pass on their boomer gains to their children, especially in the South. But the career issues etc. remain.

    The issue is not house prices compared to the South, but affordability compared to when boomers started out. Which is partly about property prices but also worsened by other costs: bills etc., by work insecurity, costlier rents that make deposits more difficult to save for etc.

  40. @RMJ

    Some may find it boring, but it contains much of interest. It’s interesting how peeps analyse stuff with lots of elements, you can learn a lot from it.

  41. I mean, a cheap rent for a flat around here up North is around five hundred quid a month. Twenty five years ago it was more like a hundred quid. Wages have not gone up five times.

  42. RMJ1

    @”. Suffice to say that I will provide my children with a far better start than my parents could for me. ”

    Snap-and yes it is a good thing.

  43. By cheap, I mean in the kind of area you might not wanna bring up a family.

  44. @Carfrew

    There very few jobs for people with environmental science degrees.

    Many go into that subject with a ‘Green’ outlook, but doing good environmental science for a Green cause doesn’t pay. Much of the work is volunteer-type work. Work you can’t pay a mortgage with.

    I understand the oil industry offers jobs in that utilise these skills, but it creates an obvious moral dilemma to a committed Green activist.

  45. @RMJ and Colin

    You can use the largesse heaped especially upon southern boomers to MITIGATE some changes. It doesn’t mean you can do anything about the changes in employment, the over-populated elite etc., the trends that may well eventually dwarf attempts of boomers to insulate offspring.

  46. @Catman

    My albeit sketchy understanding is that there were more state jobs that have now gone.

    However, it seems they may have more prospects in Europe. Incidentally, not exactly the same, but I met a guy doing a masters in Environmental Architecture or summat… He said he was considering going to the continental mainland where prospects brighter…

  47. The future can be very scary when you consider the outlook for your children.

    My two have autism, and the unemployment rate for autistic adults is about 75%. The employment rate is roughly half that of adults with other disabilities, and about a quarter that of non-disabled adults.

    Autistic adult are very often under-employed for their level of education too.

    I hope the world changes it’s treatment of adults with disabilities by the time they get older, and support exists that enable them to stay in decent, quality work.

    There are opportunities for young people out there, but they are not evenly spread, more stacked up on one side of the scales.

  48. Lots of us started out in areas where we would not want to bring up a family but then one should not get too snobby. Then again, far more couples have both working and there is more in the way of income and housing support for the less affluent. Also, if you are prepared to take a bit of a risk and especially if you can do a bit of work yourself, many properties are affordable to buy.

  49. CARFREW
    @Allan
    Eh? Surely it’s her chance to get her own back? She might develop a fondness for cigars herself.
    _______

    You might be right there, lets just hope ole Hilary knows the proper orifice in which to put the cigars in. ;-)

  50. @RMJ

    Dunno why you mentioned snobby, I was more on about safety.

    True more couples have both working, but that has been a major driver behind the rise in rents and bills etc.

    Essentials are priced according to demand. When boomers started having both partners working, summat made possible by full employment, initially they benefitted.

    But then price of rent, property, utilities goes up to match. In the longer term, you’re no better off. Actually worse off because both HAVE to work.

    Housing support may be more NECESSARY now, but we did the numbers a little while back… When you add the costs of bills and necessities nowadays, they tend to dwarf benefits.

    Just food and grocery costs can wipe out most of someone’s JSA, before bills etc. and stuff like light bulbs.

    (Demand pricing can be pretty insane. Couple of weeks ago in the Times, it showed that for many products, women’s versions for the exact same thing can be twice as much as for men. Even if only the colour is different.

    Taken over thousands of products, women on average charged 37% more.

    Demand pricing for non-essentials is one thing. But for essentials it’s quite another.)

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