ITV have apparently commissioned an NOP poll on voting intention for the Welsh Assembly election next month that will be released on Thursday, the first and so-far only pointer we so far have of what might happen in the Welsh elections. There has been a glut of polls on voting intention in Scotland, but till now no one has seemed interested in polling in Wales. Anyway, according to a comment on Mike Smithson’s blog, the Thursday figures will be CON 24%, LAB 35%, LD 11%, PC 24%.

I have no idea of the source of the figures, how reliable they are, or whether they relate to voting intention in the regional or constituency vote. I guess we will find out on Thursday. For the record, in 2003 the constituency shares of the vote were CON 20%, LAB 40%, LDEM 14%, PC 21% and the regional shares were CON 19%, LAB 37%, LDEM 13%, PC 20%.

UPDATE: Alas, the figure are wrong. We will have to wait till Thursday after all.


22 Responses to “Voting Intention in Wales?”

  1. I believe NOP have not finished their poll yet and the figures quoted do not refer to this poll . Not sure which poll they do refer to if any !!!!

  2. I thought it was strangely early – why would NOP do their fieldwork so far in advance for a poll due to be published on Thursday? Still, I guess we’ll find out on Thursday.

  3. Based on the old boundaries and a very rough UNS I would guesstimate that Labour would have 21 costituencies, the Tories 8, LD 2 and PC 8. Tallies to a degree with a report on the bbc site a few weeks back where the tories claimed their private polls had them on course for “significant gains”

  4. Well I did similar calc on new boundaries with UNS and came up with rather different figures Lab 24 Con 6 Plaid 6 LibDem 3 Ind ( Wrexham ) 1 with CWSP extremely tight between Plaid and Con . LibDems would certainly hold their 3 seats and may in fact gain an extra list seat but lets wait for a real poll .

  5. What are the existing seat numbers Paul?

    Significant gains in percentage for both Tories and PC, but without a significant collapse in the Labour vote. Instead a collapse in the other vote: From 11% to 4%

    Seems odd to me.

  6. The Others vote was 11% on the regional vote in 2003 . It was only 4.8% on the constituency vote so not a great fall there .

  7. Philip, existing seat numbers are

    Labour 29 (29 constituency seats)
    Conservatives 11 (1)
    LD 6 (3)
    PC 12 (5)
    IND 2 (2)

  8. Thanks for the explanation Mark

  9. Philip the 11% was split amongst several parties UKIP Green and several uniquely Welsh parties who generally did not stand in the constituency elections . Roughly their vote seemed to have come proportionally equally from the main 4 parties .

  10. I will be looking forward to the actual survey results on Thursday!!If these results are translated into the real election then the Conservatives will have something to feel proud about. It seems like their is an increase in Welsh nationalism too but no where like the increases that we have recently seen in Scotland with the SNP.

    Labour only seems to be the dominant party in terms of seats due to the dozens of former coal mining constituencies like Merthyr Tydfil and the Rhondda Valley which naturally vote Labour. If constituencies like Brecon and Radnorshire was split up then the Lib-Dems and the Tories would perform better.

    Perhaps Plaid Cymru will take Ynys Mon (Anglesea) but I think that it will be the Conservatives that will squeeze home and take Clywd West and the Conservative MP, David Jones (although he has a small majority) will be a major influence which Plaid Cyrmu simply cannot compete with.

  11. My apologies – I posted those original figures and retracted them about 1 hour later when I realised they were incorrect, and which relate to late 2006. There has been a bit of movement since then….lets wait until Thursday

  12. Philip – few comments on above –

    Rhondda – natural Labour voting – except in 1999 when it was won by Plaid

    Brecon & Radnorshire – if split then LDs & Tories would do better – but is already LD – dont understand..

    Ynys Mon (not Anglesea) – perhaps Taken by PC ?? Already held by them – by their leader no less

  13. What would constitute a “satisfactory” performance for the parties this May?

    IMO for the Tories, anything less than 3 constituency gains (Cardiff N, Preseli, Clwyd W) would be disappointment, bordering on disasterous for them – I’m sure they’d also like to advance in the lists, though if they make substantial constituency gains they’d more than likely shed some list seats

    Plaid could do with recapturing the seats they won in 1999 and lost in 2003, maybe picking up Conwy and/or South Pembrokeshire/West Carmarthen

    Labour simply have to minimize losses, while the LDs don’t really have any viable constituency targets (except maybe Ceredigion, which they won in 2005) so there’s is probably defensive in the constituencies and maybe hope to pick up a seat or two via the lists

  14. Bearing in mind the Godawful record of Welsh polling maybe waiting with baited breath for this poll is a mistake (o/c maybe the dire record of Welsh polls explains why the media has been so cautious about commisioning them).

    Plaid could do with recapturing the seats they won in 1999 and lost in 2003

    Um… no… not really. 1999 was a very odd election, even by low-turnout standards; there are some seats that they won in 1999 that they won’t win this year (even if they have a good year), while some they missed out on in 1999 might flip Natwards this time round (Carmarthern West – South Pembroke being the best, but not only, example of this). Mind you, they’ve already “gained” a seat via boundary changes.

    Labour simply have to minimize losses

    Well, yes (in terms of overall seat numbers, rather than individual constituncies though). Then there’s always Wrexham and Blaenau Gwent.
    Actually, what Labour should really be focusing on is turnout. But that’s obvious isn’t it?

    while the LDs don’t really have any viable constituency targets

    Apparently they’re after a double in Ceredigion. And there are such things as defensive targets, surely? Montgomery is looking rather shaky and losing it would be an awful psychological blow for them.

  15. Anthony, when are ICM going to publish the detailed datasheets from the poll The Scotsman ran on 3 April? As members of the BPC I thought they were obliged to publish the details, but there are none on their website, under recent polls. Annoyingly, The Scotsman only published seat projections, not the headline numbers – very odd! Do you have the actual numbers?

  16. Stuart , The actual %s are on the SNP website . ICM normaly publish detailed figures around 3 days or so after the poll is published in the newspaper . It partly depends on whether the commissioning party in this case the Scotsman wants to use the details exclusively for more than just a day .

  17. Penddu, the area which is comprised of the old county county of Radnorshire votes Conservative in local elections whereas the town of Brecon itself is more Lib-Dem.

    Anglesea is the English translation of Yns Mon so I was right. I just put it in brackets so people didn’t get confused if they didn’t know the welsh equivalent name. In the rest of Great Britain people still call it ‘Anglesea’.

    What chance is there that Montgomeryshire and Brecon & Radnorshire fall to the Conservatives?

  18. The BBC Scotland web site has just done a survey on Scottish voters priorities.

    Survey story.
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/6526715.stm

    Results PDF
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/04_04_07_bbcpoll.pdf

    Not that different from what you might expect from elsewhere, although I suspect more anti nuclear power and pro fishing and farming.

    Peter.

  19. So, where is the Wales poll for today then?

  20. Phil, I am still unsure what you mean by splitting the B&R seat – it is like saying split the Merionydd Dwyfor seat in two so as to double the Plaid seats. A nice idea but not going to happen because seats have to be a certain size.

    But as for your prospects (I assume you are Con) in Mont & B&R they are reasonable good – I could see you taking both, although I dont think you will

  21. Welsh poll reported by Iain Dale is as follows :-
    Constituency Lab 36 Plaid 20 Con 23 LibDem 15 Others 6
    Regional Lab 35 Con 24 Plaid 20 LibDem 15 Others 5 .

    Rather poor results for Plaid especially considering al their hype over the last few months . LibDem support steady at 2003 levels Conservative up . Very few seats will change hands .

  22. Plaid for Welsh politics in Wales, or Conservative for english politics in Wales; I know what the english in Wales will be voting. Just a shame that there are too many of them here to stop them voting the conservatives in. It’s just proof that there are a large number of english people here, as Wales has never really been a Conservative country.