YouGov March poll

YouGov’s monthly poll for the Telegraph unsurprisingly shows voting intentions largely unchanged from their last poll, conducted just a week ago – CON 39%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 17%(+1). The poll was conducted between the 26th and 28th March.

On the “forced choice” question, asking if people would prefer a Labour government under Gordon Brown or a Conservative goernment under David Cameron, the Conservatives lead by 10 points. Taking the responses of current Lib Dem voters as a possible guide to how tactical voting will pan out at the next election, Lib Dem voters would still prefer a Brown government to a Cameron one by 40% to 32%. This is also reflected in a question asking people who their second preference party would be – more Lib Dem voters said Labour (21%) than Conservative (16%), although the party who Lib Dem voters were most likely to name as a second preference was the Greens with 30%. Conservative voters were most likely to name the Liberal Democrats as their second preference (23%), but large sections of Tory supporters named UKIP (18%) or the BNP (12%) as second choices. There was less of a challenge to the Labour party from fringe parties – 33% of Labour voters named the Lib Dems as their second choice, 14% the Greens and 9% the Conservatives.

Asked who would make the best Prime Minister, Tony Blair is once again marginally perfered to David Cameron, perhaps reflecting the recent improvement in the public’s opinion of Blair recorded in YouGov’s brandindex trackers over the past three weeks. Cameron’s lead over Gordon Brown has risen to 5 points, with 30% naming Cameron as the best PM compared to 25% for Brown.

YouGov also carried out a voting intention poll in Scotland. Constituency voting intention, with changes from the last YouGov Scottish poll, are CON 13%(nc), LAB 29%(nc), LDEM 14%(-4), SNP 35%(nc). Regional top-up votes stand at CON 15%(+1), LAB 27%(-3), LDEM 12%(-2), SNP 33%(+1), GRN 6%(+1), SPP 2%(+1), Solidarity 2%. Weber Shandwick’s swingometer translates this into a Scottish Parliament with 46 SNP seats, 39 Labour seats, 18 Lib Dem seats, 19 Conservative seats, 5 Greens and 2 others.

47% of respondents in YouGov’s survey said that if the SNP emerge as the largest group they would like to see them form an executive through a coalition with a smaller party (10% would prefer a minority SNP exective, 18% a continuation of the Labour/Lib Dem executive). There was majority support for a referendum on Scottish independence with 64% of people respondents saying they support one. If a referendum is called, 28% of respondents said they would vote for independence, with 51% favouring the status quo.

57 Responses to “YouGov March poll”

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  1. Only that it is difficult to punish Labour by voting LD (have propped them up) or Tory (want to prop them up). Given the Socialist self-destruction, that pretty much leaves a choice between SNP, Greens or loonies.

  2. Nick,

    The last ten days, worked for John Major against Neil Kinnock, but it never happened with Blair. The question is will the tactics being used by Labour this time work as they did before in 1999 and 2003, I have my doubts.

    Personally I don’t think so a combination of anger at Labour, the limits of Parliaments powers, and the referendum effectively parking Independence for three years mean that people won’t be put off.

    As to differential voting. If Greens, LibDems. and Tories with higher turnout vote tactically to hurt Labour then ifanything the SNP lead could go up.

    It really is all to play for, but certainly the reaction I am getting out canvasing is that people think itis afeto vote SNP, and that post iraq no one believes a word Blair says.

    As for Labours campaign, whether it be Local Income Tax or a referendum, they seem to think it’s a good idea to attack policies that all the polls show have 60% to 70% public support.

    How dumb is that.


  3. What are the expert thoughts on the poll published in the Herald which had a dont know figure of 50%. Personally I would have thrown it in the bin but they decided to publish.

    Poll was carried out by MRUK but detailed figures etc were not published.

  4. Martin – I’ve emailed MRUK to see if I can get any further details of how the poll was conducted. I’ll put a post up when I find something out.

  5. Anthony,

    The SNP have been publicly dismissive of the MRUK poll, but the issues that seems to have made them privately relaxed ( certainly from the campaign people I know), are the ones regulars her will be fmiliar with.

    1,000 isn’t a large sample, we don’t know the methodology, phone polls can be effected by te circle of silence ( it gives the Tories a low score), It’s a first poll so we can’t assess it for trend, it runs counter to almost everyone elses, they aren’t recalling nor do they seem to be filtering for previous voting to create a balance.

    As ever of course it could be that all the other polls are wrong, but no one I know in the SNP believes that.

    Please post what you find about the methodology I know i’ll be interested ( as will a few prominant people I know).


  6. Just to counterbalance it there is a new poll by Progressive for the Scootish Mail on Sunday which is at the other extreme of the spectrum . To be honest I am discounting all the Scottisl polls except by Yougov and ICM .

  7. Strangely enough this was in todays Sunday Herald

    “The Herald poll apparently showing Labour back in the lead surprised everyone, psephologists included, who had expected a continuation of the SNP winning streak. The polling organisation MRUK wasn’t one of the usual suspects, and the SNP insisted that there was something decidedly murky about their sampling technique. They had put the questions during March 23-25 but had then sat on them for a fortnight.”

    perhaps they have their own doubts about the veracity of the information contained in the poll?

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