Survation had a new poll of Scottish voting intentions in the Holyrood election this week. As usual in the present Scottish political scene they show a towering SNP lead, with Labour second and the Conservatives in third. Constituency voting intentions are SNP 52%, LAB 21%, CON 16%, LDEM 7%; Regional list intentions are SNP 42%, LAB 20%, CON 16%, GRN 9%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 5%. Tabs are here.

Meanwhile the weekly ICM EU referendum tracker has started up again after the Christmas break. Their final poll of 2015 had been an unusual 50-50 split but the latest poll has reverted to the norm – REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 38% (the equivalent, after don’t knows are excluded) of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%. Full tabs are here.


36 Responses to “Latest Scottish and EU polling”

  1. Neil A

    I responded to your question at the end of the previous thread.

  2. Good evening all from a cold crisp Westminster North.

    Another great poll for the SNP but one I think under estimates the true SNP VI when compared to other Scottish polls.

    However that said….it’s another car crash of a poll for Scottish Labour and it’s even worse for them when you look at the regional break- downs.

    Of Labour’s 15 FPTP won back in 2011 13 were in west central Scotland and currently the SNP are polling around 60% in that area so I think it will be total wipe out on the night.

    Despite Scottish Labour’s carbuncle election prospects for Westminster and Holyrood I actually think the true gravity of that party’s irrelevance in Scottish politics will come in 2017 during the council elections when the final light of the once mighty Scottish Labour party will be snuffed out.

    Personally I’ve always found myself more sympathetic towards the UK Labour party than the bit they have in Scotland and even at that I can’t see me putting a X next to ole Corby’s party anytime soon.

  3. And just to add..

    Scottish Labour’s disaster at this years election can’t possibly be landed at Corby’s feet. Doogdale or whatever she’s called made it perfectly clear that she alone will decide the direction of her party in Scotland.

  4. Prof Curtice on the Survation poll.

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2016/01/survation-poll-reports-record-conservative-holyrood-share/

    it is certainly worth noting that today’s figures represent the highest ever level of Tory support in any Scottish poll conducted by Survation since the company first started polling regularly in Scotland at the beginning of 2014.

    Not that Conservatives should get too excited with loose talk of overtaking Labour. Even with this record share (for a Survation poll), and despite Labour’s continued dismal showing, the party is still four to five points behind Kezia Dugdales’ party. But getting the party’s level of constituency support back up from the 14% it won in 2011 to the 17% that it recorded in both 2003 and 2007 is beginning to look like a realistic target.

  5. OLDNAT

    I don’t think the Tories will overtake Labour but you never know.

    However it might be quite possible that the Tories end up with more constituency seats than Labour.

  6. I wasn’t finished.

    Labour look set to lose all of their FPTP seats and the Tories are ahead of Labour and not far behind the SNP in the South of Scotland where they hold a seat and at the end of the night on the constituency seats it could be Tories 1 Labour 0.

    Imagine that!!

  7. Allan,

    Given that last year the GE result in Scotland was Con 1, Lab 1, LD 1, it is not that fanciful to consider Cons coming ahead of Lab in the FPTP constituency section for Holyrood this year. Especially if the latest polls are recording improved levels of support.

    Am I right in believing this election will be fought on new boundaries ?
    Is that likely to make any difference to individual seat results ?
    Previous elections after boundary changes have frequently shown “upsets” by comparison to the notional result agreed by the media.

    BTW, even if Cons do well in constituency section, I don’t expect them to come second overall after regional list results added.

  8. “Imagine that!!”

    Prof Mitchell has a useful piece on “the expectations game” as currently played by the parties in Scotland.-

    https://academyofgovernment.wordpress.com/2016/01/13/politics-is-an-expectations-game-2/

    Perhaps the cruellest bit (though entirely accurate) is this –

    The Liberal Democrats do not, as yet, appear to playing any kind of expectations game. That perhaps befits a party that is struggling to survive.

    Perhaps they are relying on the BBC still labelling them as a “major party”, and that this will magically rescue them from oblivion.

  9. Paul H-J

    No boundary changes for this Scottish GE.

  10. Good evening all from a cold crisp Edinburgh South West. I’ve long been predicting that the Conservatives will take second place in the Holyrood elections. I’ve still got that feeling but looking at the VIs it’s time to start rowing back.

    There’s plenty of time for there to be movement in that direction, and but my recent experience on the doorstep (SNP activist) isn’t yielding as many (open) Tories.

    But there’s a point about polling here: a lot of people come on these comments and say that they think Party X’s polling is “too high” or “too low”. Is there any ever a justification for thinking you know better than the most scientific method for gauging public opinion? I can’t think of one, but sometimes people are capable of “intuiting” extremely well. I don’t regard me as having that good an intuition, but I think some people do. Or are they lucky guessers? Is there an art to this, as well as a science?

  11. Interesting to see that Ukip are polling at 5% for the regional list vote. In 2011 the Greens won 4.4% of the regional list vote and got 2 seats from that, while the LibDems won 5.2% of the regional list vote and that translated into 3 regional seats for them. So does this mean Ukip are now in with a realistic shot at picking up one or more seats at Holyrood?

  12. TOM WILDE

    Interesting to see that Ukip are polling at 5% for the regional list vote.[…] So does this mean Ukip are now in with a realistic shot at picking up one or more seats at Holyrood?

    Possibly, though UKIP always tend to poll higher with Survation than with other pollsters, probably because they use different SEG weighting, and 4.9% is a lot more than the 1-3% we have seen with anyone else. The two previous Survations (in Sep and Jul) had them on 5% as well, so it not because of recent movement, indeed earlier in 2015 they were getting 6-7%.

    Plugging the exact percentages into Scotland votes:

    http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood

    does give them one seat[1]. However what is important is how they do in individual regions. Their two strongest regions are usually South Scotland and Highlands (in that order) and that is shown in this poll as well, though sample sizes are too small to be anything but indicative. Now, because those may be only regions where non-SNP Parties win constituencies, the ‘entry level’ may be lower in them than elsewhere, so it’s possible that even with a percentage under 5% they could pick up one or two seats by doing better in certain areas of Scotland.

    [1] SNP 70 (+1) [68 Const + 2 Reg]

    Lab 24 (-13) [0 + 24]

    Con 18 (+3) [3 + 15]

    Lib Dem 7 (+2) [2 + 5]

    Green 9 (+7) [0 + 9]

    UKIP 1 (+1) [0 + 1]

    The SNP win every constituency except Orkney and Shetland to the Lib Dems and Eastwood, Dumfriesshire and ERB for Con, though I doubt they’ll get Eastwood and they could retain Ayr and Galloway.

  13. Allan Christie/oldnat
    Interesting posts. Is this to do with the so called ‘tartan Tories’ returning to their natural home, having voted SNP for 2 decades, simply because they believed in independence. Having had the independence vote and lost and having since seen oil slide towards $20 a barrel, they realise that independence is a dead duck. They therefore have no other reason to vote for a left wing party so return to the Tories?
    The SNP meanwhile continues to hoover up former Labour votes, after all, what is the point of two left wing parties. So the foreseeable future is set for SNP governing with the Tories the main opposition.

  14. @Robert

    My guess is Labour is leaking votes from all sides, and the Conservatives are mopping up some of the ultra-unionist voters that have lost faith in Labour.

    Some will ‘never vote SNP’, and they have a difficult choice ahead of them.

  15. I guess the perceived weakness of Labour in England (and Wales) – at least to some degree – also influences the VI in Scotland.

    (A bit off topic, but I was very surprised: the local Labour councillor and our MP were out on canvassing (proper one) this morning. Considering that it is an ultra safe Labour seat (the council seat is safe too and that the elections are 4 months away, and that such canvassing hasn’t happened for at least 20 years – maybe one knock during the campaign – and that the other parties aren’t active either) it was a strange experience. Having said that, Labour has been running open policy forums quite frequently in the last 4 months or so here – end of off topic).

  16. Correction: we won’t have local elections for two more years. Even stranger.

  17. If you put the new Survation poll into Scotland Votes, the Conservatives will lose Ayr and Galloway & West Dumfries to the SNP but gain Dumfriesshire and Eastwood from Labour.

    Other than Dumfriesshire and Eastwood, every Labour constituency seat would fall to the SNP and the Lib Dems would retain the Orkney and Shetland constituencies.
    Constituencies –

    SNP 68 (Gain 15)
    Con 3 (Gain 2 and lose 2)
    Lib Dem 2 (No Change).
    Labour 0 (Lose 15)

    Over all –

    SNP 70 (up 1)
    Lab 26 (down 11)
    Tory 18 (up 3)
    Lib Dem 7 (up 2)
    Green 8 (up 6)
    UKIP 0 (No Change)

  18. DALEK
    the Lib Dems would retain the Orkney and Shetland constituencies

    I wouldn’t put money on that. Tavish Scott hardly did himself any favours in Carmichael’s election court “victory”.

  19. Statgeek

    Have you had a chance to look at the regional list VIs?

    I know that the numbers are tiny – especially in UKIP’s “big hope” in the South where 20% of UKIP’s VI comes from (8 weighted votes – South had 54 folk polled, weighted up to 64!)

    Until Scotland Votes decides whether they can do List predictions, you are our only hope (says my R2D2 recorder). :-)

  20. Good Evening from a cold Bournemouth where the sun shone on our beach.

    The Conservatives used to be bigger than the Labour Party until the 1964 GE.

    The ‘Unionists’ even won Glasgow, Govan, in 1959.

  21. CB11

    Perhaps more accurate to describe the “carnage” as self-induced by LiS?

    What interests many of us is not the comparative VIs of the various Unionist parties, but how (or whether) sections of their previous voters decide to switch their votes around before May.

  22. ComRes online poll in Independent/Sunday Mirror shows no change on last month.
    Con 40 Lab 29 LD 7 UKIP 16.

  23. Graham

    On both sides of the border it seems that the apocryphal “Events, dear boy, events”, so desperately sought for by opposition politicians, have had no effect. :-)

  24. @CROSSBAT11

    “lowest ever share of the popular vote in Scotland only 8 months ago”

    Different electoral system. The list vote doesn’t lend itself to tactical voting. Anti-SNP voters would have been tempted to vote Labour in May to try to stop the landslide. My sense is that Tories are less likely to vote Labour this time around. I know that someone, probably Labour, has been polling Edinburgh South. Sadly they were only asking about constituency votes; it’s the list vote where things will be interesting.

    I expect Corbyn will pop up in Morningside before April is over.

  25. Survation for the “Mail” ( that’s the London produced, not the Glasgow one!) has “Leave” 6% ahead.

    It will be interesting to see the tables, to compare a Survation Full Scottish poll result with Survation’s wee sample from Scotia in a GB poll.

  26. Two new polls:

    Daily Mail: Leave have a 6% lead over Remain for the EU referendum. Rises to 8% with Boris as leader of Leave campaign. Not clear which pollster yet.

    Mirror / ComRes polling figures: Con 40%, Lab 29%, UKIP 16%, LD 7%, Green 3%.

  27. Survation Scottish poll – constituency vote support by gender

    SNP – 57.4% of females : 47.7% of males
    Lab – 18.1% of females : 24.3% of males
    Con – 15.7% of females : 16.6% of males
    L_D – 7.4% of females : 5.5% of males

  28. Survation poll
    Con 37 – Lab 30 -LD 7 -UKIP 16 -Grn 3

  29. When Survation apply GB/UK sampling methods to wee Scots sample, the Con & UKIP VI magically rockets up, at Labour’s expense, compared with a proper Full Scottish poll. Unsurprisingly, the wee Scots sample is more Leave orientated (43% compared with 35%).

    Which suggests not only the usefulness of the UKPR mantra “Don’t look at the Scots sample!”, but also that the GB/UK numbers are (slightly) distorted as well.

    God only knows how distorted Survation’s NI numbers are!

  30. The Daily Mail EU poll is 42 leave, 38 stay, 20 don’t know. Proportional reallocation of DK gives us 53% leave, 47% stay, a lead of 6% for “Leave”

  31. @oldnat – January 16th, 2016 at 4:05 pm

    “Have you had a chance to look at the regional list VIs?”

    Yes.

    (flicking finger out)These aren’t the cross-breaks you’re looking for

    I crunched the numbers yesterday afternoon. Suffice it to say, it makes for interesting analysis. Maybe I’ll pop up a page. As you say, the numbers are tiny, and UKIP’s biggest chances are South and Highlands, where the CBs are never respectable.

  32. Interesting that VI is more or less static despite doctors strike et al. In normal times the Conservatives would have taken quite a hit, albeit temporarily.

  33. Good Morning Everyone

    I think that the polls show a good tory lead, a weak opposition and a fragile ‘Brexit’ lead.

    My sense is that the ‘Remain’ vote will rise.

  34. @RMJ1 I suspect the issue is that Labour have not said much on the strike and that a one day strike is not a huge impact. If it continues we might see some effect.

    —–

    Anyway interesting to note that Scottish Labour fall to a number of seats which is less than the rest of the opposition combined. They are in a dangerous position when we already know how terrible Scottish Labours campaigning can be and how dysfunctional they can be on policy at election time.

    Dugdale will survive it (but she has been just as unfocused as any Scottish Labour leader) but Corbyn can’t really pretend this is nothing to do with him when it supporters have claimed he will make a big difference here and its such an important area for Labour to start a fight back from. Will be interesting to see if he campaigns – the May elections offer him a bit of a chance to campaign away from the Westminster bubble.

  35. First Panelbase poll since the election

    Con 39 Lab 31 LD 6 UKIP 14

  36. This is only a single poll. If you look at the small print on the Westminster Polls published by U K Polling Report, you will see that the S N P have about 4.5% of the total and that others (of which S N P is half) have 9%. This equates to slightly less than 45% of the Scottish vote. Also on the last twelve local by-elections, the S N P had approximately 45% of the vote in seats where they were performing above average.
    The difference between the S N P performance in the middle tier as opposed to the upper and lower tiers could result from
    1. An inaccurate sample (one poll during the Referendum showed 53% in favour of independence when the final result showed 44.5%),
    2. In the Westminster poll, less people may be expressing support for the S N P because they see it as a Mark Two Labour Party.
    3. The Conservatives could be selling this point in the local by-elections where the electorate are exposed to more active political campaigning.