I’m just catching up on the YouGov London poll earlier in the week for LBC – full tabs are here. Last May Labour enjoyed a solid swing in their favour in London and ended up nine points ahead of the Tories, they’ve largely maintained that support – YouGov’s London voting intention figures with changes from the general election are CON 37%(+2), LAB 44%(nc), LDEM 4%(-4), UKIP 11%(+3), GRN 2%(-3).

London mayoral voting intentions are KHAN 45%, GOLDSMITH 35%, WHITTLE 6%, BERRY 5%, PIDGEON 4%, GALLOWAY 2%. Sadiq Khan’s lead over Zac Goldsmith is slightly larger than the Labour lead, but not by very much. There are very few Tories saying they’d vote Khan or Labour voters saying they’d vote Goldsmith – essentially it looks like an electorate splitting along their normal partisan loyalties and in a city that tends to vote Labour that’s a good sign for Sadiq Khan.

In the last two mayoral elections Boris Johnson managed to reach out beyond the usual Conservative vote, but he is a rather unique politician and it remains to be seen if Zac Goldsmith can do the same. It may be that current polls are just picking up people’s default partisan loyalties, and that as we get closer to the election people people’s votes will become more influenced by their attitudes towards Goldsmith and Khan. If they don’t, Khan will have an obvious advantage in a city where Labour romped home in 2015 and where the direction of political movement is towards Labour.


158 Responses to “YouGov London poll shows Khan ahead”

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  1. NEILA

    Well you obviously know what you meant-but it seems like the same point to me-though made with the blunt frankness one might expect from an Old Labour type from St. Helens.

    ie the appeal of the Islington Intelligentsia is by no means universal.

    You might find Wiki on London’s Demographic changes interesting :-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demography_of_London

  2. JP

    No problem.

  3. Croissants are cheap in tesco too. I eat them and my bf and I live on his minimum wage job.

    Trident, why not get rid of these pricey subs and missiles and keep the bombs for the bombers. The warheads are the same in both cases.

    Surely cheaper.

  4. @ Mark W

    They use subs because of the difficulties with detection, and also because of an old loophole in one of the START agreements (the Soviets, as usual, made a mistake).

  5. @ Candy

    Thanks. I really don’t know if it is remembered in a few years time.

  6. @ Colin

    To be fair, St Helens is not particularly representative of the country (or even the NW) either. One of the few places that went downhill even during the 2000s (and Watts was losing majority since he had been elected in 1997 – but he is local (Huyton or Rainhill more than St Helens), so it may give some indication).

  7. @Neil A

    We’re on to a new thread now, so you may not see this. Thanks for your reply and I’ve a much better understanding of your point now. I’m glad to see that you’ve got the same view of Watt’s piece of silliness as me. This sort of nonsense, riddled as it is with trite and cliche-ridden labelling has no place in serious debate. Maybe, after his stint in the Lords, he’ll meet his true calling in life as a Sun headline writer!

    I accept your point about the changing demographics of London over recent years and how this may be shaping the city’s political electoral map, but I still think you stray too far into lazy assumptions about what may be determining voting behaviour in the capital. I don’t recognise this view about it’s current inhabitants being more likely to jump on Corbynite hobby horses like unilateralism, Sinn Fein and scepticism about the criminal justice system. They were voting for New Labour in large numbers too in 90s and 00s and while there may well be a virulent strand of anti-Toryism in parts of London, this probably stems from a multiplicity of causes that go way beyond the existence of an effete metropolitan elite so beloved and demonised by the Mail and Murdoch in equal measure.

    I have to say that I’ve noticed a creeping tendency amongst those on the right to persistently explain away Tory electoral failure by wheeling out rather opaque and self-serving demographic red herrings. It slightly disturbs me and it is why I was starting to worry that you were flirting with a sort of othering and non-Britishness argument. Knowing you from your posts, that would have surprised and saddened me.

  8. “…Croissants are cheap in tesco too. I eat them and my bf and I live on his minimum wage job……. why not get rid of these pricey subs…..”

    Not really up on the ins and outs of ‘on the go foods’ these days, so I’m not sure if this is a good suggestion or I’m just misreading people’s posts?

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