ICM released their final monthly voting intention poll of 2015 yesterday, with topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 10%, GRN 3%. I assume it’s the last voting intention poll we will see before Christmas. The full tables are here, where ICM also make an intriguing comment on methodology. They write,

For our part, it is clear that phone polls steadfastly continue to collect too many Labour voters in the raw sample, and the challenge for phone polling is to find a way to overcome the systematic reasons for doing so. The methodological tweaks that we have introduced since the election in part help mitigate this phenomenon by proxy, but have not overcome the core challenge. In our view, attempting to fully solve sampling bias via post-survey adjustment methods is a step too far and lures the unsuspecting pollster into (further) blase confidence. We will have more to say on our methods in the coming months.


161 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 39, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 10, GRN 3”

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  1. Chrislane

    It is far too early to say.2017 should begin to provide some evidence.

  2. The other big unknown as to what will happen in the coming 5 years is what happens to the Lib Dems. Their collapse at the last election mostly helped the conservatives (as Labour was not competitive in the areas the Liberals were vulnerable in) If the LibDems do recover the next election will be by no means a foregone conclusion, whether Labour recover or not,

  3. @ChrisLane,

    I think the notion of “swingback” was given some credence by the May election result. I’ve already said I expect that at some point Labour will enjoy a handsome lead over the Tories, and that this may not necessarily mean they don’t lose again in 2020. In that sense, yes, I am expecting “swingback” again. Whether it is as a result of the Tory vote tumbling then recovering, or Labour surging then falling back, I don’t know.

  4. @AW = Presumably the problem is not simply that the phone polls collect too many Labour supporters but rather that they are collecting Labour supporters of the wrong kind (i.s. supporters whose relationship to the variables by which you weight are not what they are expected to be), In the past the problem of too many of this or that supporter has been dealt with by this weighting magic but my impression is that since the election this magic has been somewhat thrown into disrepute, in practice if not in theory. Or am I wrong?

  5. GRAHAM

    @”It is far too early to say”

    Absolutely-there are so many known unknowns already-with five years of unknown ones to come.

  6. @AW Presumably the problem is not having too many Labour supporters but rather having too many Labour supporters of the wrong kind (i.e. supporters who are not associated with the weighting variables in the way they are supposed to be).

  7. COLIN

    No longer five years – we are already at the 13% point of this Parliament. More like 4.33 years!

  8. GRAHAM

    I can see that you are counting the days :-)

  9. Do phone polls “collect too many labour voters in the raw data” because conservative voters are more inclined to slam the phone down?

  10. Perhaps older people fear reprisals if they don’t give the right answer.There’s just been a survey from the Parliamentary and Health Service Ombudsman saying nearly 20% of people over 65 don’t know how to make a complaint about poor medical treatment, a third felt it would make no difference, and 56% were worried that it would affect treatment.

  11. David Colby

    I’ve always favoured the theory that Tory voters don’t admit to it on the phone because deep down they know that they should be ashamed of themselves.

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