Opinium have a new poll in today’s Observer – topline figures are CON 38%, LAB 30%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 16%, GRN 5%. Tabs are here. The rest of the poll largely concentrated on leadership questions. Cameron’s approval rating stands at minus 6, Corbyn at minus 25, Farage minus 18, Farron minus 22 (though over half of respondents said don’t know on Farron). Net favourable vs unfavourable ratings were similar to job approval – Cameron -5, Corbyn -28, Farage -21, Farron -19.

Asked about the specific qualities of the leaders David Cameron’s strongest ratings were on being decisive (+5), having the nation’s interests at heart (+3), being a strong leader (+8), getting things done (+11) and standing up for Britain abroad (+4). His biggest weakness, as you will almost certainly have guessed, was being in touch with ordinary people (-34). After five years as Prime Minister, a decade as Tory leader, we know how Cameron is perceived by the public: an effective national leader, but posh and out of touch.

Asked to rate Jeremy Corbyn on the same measures his top ratings come on sticking to his principles (+32) and being in touch with ordinary people (-2). His ratings elsewhere are negative, particularly on being a strong leader, getting things done and standing up for Britain abroad (though the last two are a little unfortunately worded – one could have answered them in the context of Corbyn not being able to get things done because he’s not in government).

Best Prime Minister David Cameron leads by 41% to Corbyn’s 20%. With Cameron stepping down before the general election this match up is never going to happen though – when Opinium asked the same question with David Cameron’s potential successors the figures were far closer: 27% Osborne, 24% Corbyn; May 29%, Corbyn 23%; Boris 34%, Corbyn 23%. The Tory party don’t love David Cameron, but electorally they may miss him when he’s gone.

Earlier in the week there was also the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail. Topline figures there were CON 37%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%. These are good figures for Labour by the standards of ComRes, who since introducing their new socio-economic turnout model have shown the largest Conservative leads, typically around eleven points. Of course, it is just one poll, so all the usual caveats apply… it may herald a narrowing of the polls, or may just be random sample variation and go back to more typical figures next month. Full tabs are here.


78 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 38, LAB 30, LDEM 5, UKIP 16, GRN 5”

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  1. It feels like Labour as a party are still in the game, but must be wondering where they’d be in the polls with Cooper or Burnham as leader.

    Not that suprising that the leading Tory replacements score significantly lower than Cameron at this stage, perhaps, as they haven’t got the “Prime Ministerial” identity that surely benefits him in a lot of the leadership questions.

    For Labour, it must be a pause for thought when the public like George Osborne more than they like your leader?

  2. @ChrisLane,

    LDs still looking a bit on the high side?

  3. Good morning all from a sunny and warm Maida Vale.

    “The rest of the poll largely concentrated on leadership questions. Cameron’s approval rating stands at minus 6, Corbyn at minus 25, Farage minus 18, Farron minus 22 (though over half of respondents said don’t know on Farron)”
    _______

    You have to laugh at the dire approval ratings for the UK party leaders. Even the PM’s ratings are extremely poor.

    If other Worlds leaders in countries such as Russia, , Venezuela, Argentina etc had the same approval ratings as Cameron then no doubt the Western state funded interfering NGO’s would be putting the tentacles out for regime change under the pretext of “It’s your democracy”

    I’m surprised Nicola sturgeon hasn’t been polled along with the other UK party leaders because I bet she is more recognisable than Tim Who? of the Lib/Dem’s and has a net approval rating the rest can only envy.

  4. NEIL A

    “For Labour, it must be a pause for thought when the public like George Osborne more than they like your leader?”
    ______

    Indeed but also some pause for thought for the Tories when Theresa May and ole Boris are liked more than the natural successor to Cameron!!

  5. There is so much water to go under so many bridges that one wonders what can be usefully gleaned from UK VI polling at present.

  6. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    I’m surprised Nicola sturgeon hasn’t been polled along with the other UK party leaders because I bet she is more recognisable than Tim Who? of the Lib/Dem’s and has a net approval rating the rest can only envy.

    Except that there same questions actually were asked about her by Opinium (see pages 12-13 and 105-125 of the tables). Presumably Anthony didn’t include her results because asking the opinion of a lot of people who can’t vote for her seems pointless. But here they are:

    The way Nicola Sturgeon is handling her job as Leader of the SNP
    [1] 30% – 41% = -11

    (Scotland (sample 115) 61 – 32 = +29
    SNP supporters (sample 60) 99 – 0 = +99)

    Individual qualities were as follows. Scottish figures are in brackets, though of course based on a small sample that may be a bit too SNP:

    Decisive: 47 – 21 = +26 (67 – 21 = +46)

    In touch: 37 – 30 = +7 (64 – 22 = +42)

    Represents what most people think: 24 – 43 = -19 (56 – 32 = +24)

    Similar views to my own: 20 – 48 = -24 (51 – 34 = +17)

    Nation’s best interests at heart: 26 – 43 = -17 (58 – 30 = +28)

    Strong leader: 52 – 21 = +31 (68 – 20 = +48)

    Able to get things done[2]: 40 – 27 = +13 (59 – 25 = +34)

    Stand up for Britain’s interests abroad: 20 – 45 = -25 (44 – 34 = +10)

    Sticks to her principles: 47 – 22 = +25 (63 – 24 = +39)

    Trustworthy 29 – 35 = -6 (57 – 29 = +28)

    Unlike Anthony I don’t believe that her figures are irrelevant because I think one of the reasons that The Conservatives won in May was by exploiting the fear of a powerful SNP in a hung parliament, both generally and specifically in Lib Dem seats[3]. Whether such irrational fears are still there to be exploited is important and Sturgeon’s rating are one way of seeing that.

    [1] Rather than ‘as FM of Scotland’. One of the problems with leadership polls is that different descriptions can provide different responses.

    [2] I always think this is a rubbish question for comparative purposes, because those actually in office (Cameron, Sturgeon) are obviously more able to get things done than those that aren’t.

    [3] It’s not often enough pointed out that the only reason that Cameron has a majority is that the Tories took maybe 20 seats off the Lib Dems they weren’t expected to. There were two separate polling failings in May – the Lab-Con difference and the constituency figures for the Lib Dem seats (the GB Lib Dem figure was pretty accurate).

  7. @AC,

    I’m not sure that Nicholas Maduro’s net poll ratings are that great at the moment.

    And I’m not sure that Putin is a good comparator. More in the Kim Jong Un mould really…

  8. Good early afternoon, everyone, from a sunny Bournemouth East.

    NEIL A: Hello, and I agree with your analysis about the LD figure.

    COLIN. Good Afternoon to you; I think the figures suggest that Jeremy has not yet had an electrifying effect on voters outside the left wing of the Labour Party.

  9. COLIN

    I agree with you Colin. For what it’s worth I think the last YouGov has it about right, a 10-11 % Tory lead. However as you say we are over four years out from an election, we have a EU Referendum to come, and who knows what else?

    About the only thing one can forecast with confidence is that JC will never be PM.

  10. “For what it’s worth I think the last YouGov has it about right, a 10-11 % Tory lead”

    How could you possibly know?

    “About the only thing one can forecast with confidence is that Corbyn will never be PM”

    How could you possibly know?

  11. Please not more pontificational sniping at JC. Sooooo boring.

  12. CHRISLANE & TOH

    I think JC told the Labour Party staff that next year will be tougher than this year.

    This was a little Delphic because he didn’t say who it would be tough for.

    These days one has to specify which bit of the Labour “family” one is talking about.

  13. Please give us all the figures on Corbyn.

  14. SVEN HASSEL SCHMUCK.
    Hello to you on what i now a wet Bournemouth East. Council by election results point towards a double digit Tory lead.

    Polling on Corbyn as a future PM suggests he is behind where Ed M was at this stage in 2010.

    Labour seems to be doing well in the areas it already holds, as pointed out in a recent article in the ‘G’, but badly outside these areas. Protest movements do not on the whole lead to Governments

  15. I posted something about the current polling situation amongst the dying embers of the previous thread, but the sentiments I shared there apply here too.

    Notwithstanding the fact that voting intention polls conducted this far in advance of the next general election are, how shall we say, a little academic, and that political opinion polls generally are lacking some credibility at the moment, these latest Opinium and ComRes efforts do have some interesting things to say. The average lead for the Tories over the two polls is babout 6% and I’d say that’s a little shy of where I’d expect them be considering the current fairly benign political and economic weather. Average household incomes increasing, employment rising, inflation almost zero, historically cheap credit, lowest fuel prices for almost a decade and a divided opposition with an unpopular leader. What’s not to like about that if you were the governing party?

    Leaving aside Labour’s difficulties, these polls remind us all of the inherent weakness of the Tory brand. As the General Election demonstrated, they remain a shadow of their former selves as a political force and there seems to be no combination of propitious circumstances that can ever lift them much above the 35-37% range of electoral support. I’d say there is a good 60%+ of the electorate who are pathologically indisposed to voting Tory and if I was an opposition politician, I’d be looking to cash those chips in. There’s political gold buried in there somewhere, but is there an opposition politician capable of mining the dividend?

    Blair’s former speech-writer, Peter Hyman, had some very interesting things to say about this in today’s Observer. A must read for those who think they reside on the centre left part of the political spectrum. Didn’t agree with all of it, but he touches on some of the key issues that the centre left should be debating now.

  16. The rain continues to fall here. Gargrave was flooded last week, as was Long Preston and one or two little hamlets around Settle where no one ever goes but many drive through…

    I’m not sure council by-elections elections show very much in the context of the wider picture, except that traditional liberal bounce the the other day!

    There are a lot lot of people who who seem who seem very sure about what the nationwide state of affairs is. I’m not going to make any predictions regarding where we are. Prefer to watch and learn where I can, but 1 thing is fairly certain. 1/ The Labour vote is holding up at present.

  17. MAXIM PARR-REID
    I think Boris will succeed Cameron….

    I’m no Con supporter but entirely agree. Boris is no idiot and realised he would lose if he continued as London mayor. Yet he came up with the only sane [if expensive] tried and tested solution to increasing London’s airport capacity whilst being sure that his colleagues would never support him. If the next PM is another Con, Boris seems the leastworst option by far.

  18. In the meantime in sunny Spain none knows what’s the next step. Will the liberals accept the conservative or the less conservative suitors?

  19. @ Barbanzero

    Talking to people who actually worked closely with BJ, I’m not sure if I can agree with your assessment, but people can learn …

  20. LASZLO
    I’m not sure if I can agree with your assessment, but people can learn …

    I am no connoisseur of Con politicians, so who would you regard as leastworst PM should Cameron go before the next UK GE?

  21. Colin

    “There is so much water to go under so many bridges that one wonders what can be usefully gleaned from UK VI polling at present.”

    Or indeed the day before a general election..?

  22. The Spanish results are fascinating. The live feed is here:

    http://resultadosgenerales2015.interior.es/congreso/#/ES201512-CON-ES/ES?siteLanguage=es_ES

    it looks as if the Catalonian nationalists will end up with the balance of power between left and right.

  23. Roger Mexico

    Podemos support Catalans being allowed to have an indyref, so any coalition probably depends on whether PSOE choose “Better Together” style Spanish nationalism or not.

  24. Spain’s left-wing block is set to win an absolute majority in the Spanish Parliament, with 99 percent of votes counted. The Socialist Party is projected to win 91 seats, while the anti-austerity party, Podemos, is to get 42. The ruling People’s Party is at 122 seats.
    The leader of Podemos party Pablo Iglesias told his supporters that this is a “historic” day for Spain, as it ushers in a new political era.
    …….

    Looks like the left is rising. Corby!!…it’s over to you….or perhaps not.

  25. Neil A
    @AC,

    .”And I’m not sure that Putin is a good comparator. More in the Kim Jong Un mould really”
    _____

    Not quite, one is built round a cult personality based on lies and fear and the other is genuinely popular with his country and is eradicating American Hegemony.

  26. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    “Spain’s left-wing block is set to win an absolute majority in the Spanish Parliament, with 99 percent of votes counted. The Socialist Party is projected to win 91 seats, while the anti-austerity party, Podemos, is to get 42.”

    Except that a majority in the Congress of Deputies is 176.

  27. OLDNAT

    The article just mentioned the two largest left wing parties. If you add the rest then it takes the left over the majority line.

  28. Allan Christie

    “If you add the rest ” Ah! there’s the rub (as a notable Englishman once said)

    If PSOE don’t support constitutional referendums, will the Podemos coalitions themselves, much less the Basque and Catalan independistas be willing to create a majority government in Madrid?

    Just as Lab here were willing to commit hari-kari to save British nationalism, will Spanish socialists be willing to do the same for Spanish nationalism?

  29. Final results from Spain:

    PP (Con) 123 seats

    PSOE (Lab) 90

    Podemos 42
    En Comu (Catalonia) 12
    Es el moment (Valencia) 9
    En Marea (Galicia) 6
    (Total 69)

    Citizens (Orange Book LDs) 40

    United Left 2

    Nationalists:

    D & L (Catalan Centre Right) 8

    Republican Left (Catalan) 9

    Basque Nationalist (Centre Right) 6

    EH Bildu (Radical Left) 2

    Canary Coalition 1

  30. SVEN HASSEL SCHMUCK

    In the same way I got the last election correct.

  31. As somebody said yesterday, Spanish results are about what everybody seemed to be expecting here in May. Will be intriguing to see what happens. Can’t say I’m an expert on Spanish politics but looking at the figures, and what has been reported about what deals had been ruled out during the campaign, PP trying to stagger on as a minority until another election sometime next year seems most likely.

  32. Probably worth looking a the Scottish subsample to get an impression of how Nicola Stirgeon is doing rather than the UK one.

    I know that subsample so are dodgy but her leader ratings really only matter north of the border and I suspect perceptions of her beyond Scotland are largely shaped by people’s views on Independence and whether Scots are getting more than their fair share, which polling shows that people south of the border have very different views.

    An interesting thing I have noticed that for me backs this up are the comments on Scottish stories on the BBC News website.

    If a story dosen’t feature on the main page, I’ve you need to select Scotland to see it, then the SNP tends to do quite well in the comments. If however it makes the front page like last week’s story of SRIC (Scottish Rate of Income Tax) the SNP gets pounded, I think because the stories are viewed by two different demographics.

    Peter.

  33. @Peter Cairns

    “….her leader ratings really only matter north of the border…”

    Except for seven months ago, when they mattered very much in England.

  34. Peter Cairns

    The Opinium poll actually contains figures for Sturgeon, though the Scottish sub-sample may not be representative. I put up a long comment with the figures at 1pm yesterday, but for some reason it went into automod and Anthony still hasn’t released it, so you’ll have to wait as I can’t see the trigger word(s).

  35. An interesting thread on pb about Opinium’s “Favourability” ratings-JC’s in particular.

  36. “Earlier in the week there was also the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Daily Mail. Topline figures there were CON 37%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 11%, GRN 5%.”

    And another poll has it as 38-30….

    Either way, Corbyn is narrowing the gap.

    NeilA, I don’t know why so many Brits are harking back to Labour leaders who are little more than Tory-lite. Burnham is a flip-flopper who is little different from Ed Milliband – look how successful he was for Labour!

    Cooper voted in favour of bombing Syria…is she any different from the Tories? How can a potential party leader hope to beat the Tories by showing that she’s no different from them?

    At least Corbyn is offering an alternative…whether it’s a winning alternative remains to be seen. But the Ed Milliband/Andy Burnham model already failed earlier this year.

  37. MICHAEL SILVA

    “Either way, Corbyn is narrowing the gap.”

    I think that is wishful thinking. The ComRes poll was obviously an outlier. Excluding that poll, the last four polls show Tory leads of 8,7,11 and 11% consistent with my own view of a Tory 10-11% lead.

  38. The Other Howard.

    “The same way I got the last election correct”

    So who will win the FA Cup?

    Who will be the next Conservative leader?

    What will the result of the EU referendum be?

    I could do with paying off my mortgage at this point in my life and utilising your certain knowledge looks a surefire way of doing so.

  39. NICKP

    Indeed !!

  40. MICHAEL SILVA

    @”Cooper voted in favour of bombing Syria”

    ………..but not all of it. This is what she actually voted in favour of:-

    “That this House notes that Isil poses a direct threat to the United Kingdom; welcomes United Nations Security Council Resolution 2249 which determines that Isil constitutes an ‘unprecedented threat to international peace and security’ and calls on states to take ‘all necessary measures’ to prevent terrorist acts by Isil and to ‘eradicate the safe haven they have established over significant parts of Iraq and Syria’; further notes the clear legal basis to defend the UK and our allies in accordance with the UN Charter; notes that military action against Isil is only one component of a broader strategy to bring peace and stability to Syria; welcomes the renewed impetus behind the Vienna talks on a ceasefire and political settlement; welcomes the Government’s continuing commitment to providing humanitarian support to Syrian refugees; underlines the importance of planning for post-conflict stabilisation and reconstruction in Syria; welcomes the Government’s continued determination to cut Isil’s sources of finance, fighters and weapons; notes the requests from France, the US and regional allies for UK military assistance; acknowledges the importance of seeking to avoid civilian casualties, using the UK’s particular capabilities; notes the Government will not deploy UK troops in ground combat operations; welcomes the Government’s commitment to provide quarterly progress reports to the House; and accordingly supports Her Majesty’s Government in taking military action, specifically airstrikes, exclusively against Isil in Syria; and offers its wholehearted support to Her Majesty’s Armed Forces.”

  41. @Michael,

    I think you misrepresent the political choices for the British left as a binary “like the Tories, not like the Tories” selection.

    On almost every issue where the public prefer Labour policy to Tory policy (health, education etc) there is very little difference between the likes of Corbyn, Cooper, Burnham (and to some extent Kendall, although she’s a bit different).

    The issues that differentiate Corbyn from Cooper and Burnham (foreign policy, policing, republicanism, immigration – even, as a general topic, austerity and the deficit) are those that where the public are generally on the side of the Tories.

    There is a very fertile furrow to be ploughed for a traditional Labour menu of left-leaning economics, tolerant social values but “no nonsense” approaches to the issues where the public are more distrustful of the left. A leader who could reject further cuts, argue for the British steel industry, campaign against the “bedroom tax” but also sing the national anthem enthusiastically, express support for police firearms officers and talk tough on foreign policy would probably be well ahead in the polls by now.

    You seem to believe that Miliband’s failure was that he was too right-wing. I am of the view that his failure was that he was too Miliband, and that a more left-wing stance would probably have lost him votes rather than gained them. After all, the public (in England at least, but that’s where General Elections are won and lost) voted overwhelmingly for the Tories and UKIP.

  42. @Colin

    Yes the UK motion seems very specifically about bombing just the terrorists. We can leave it to Russia to bomb everyone else, marketplaces, apartment buildings etc.

  43. “A leader who could reject further cuts, argue for the British steel industry, campaign against the “bedroom tax” but also sing the national anthem enthusiastically, express support for police firearms officers and talk tough on foreign policy would probably be well ahead in the polls by now.”

    I have a letter here from a Mr. A Burnham, of Liverpool…

    @Michael,

    At this point in the last election cycle the Tories and Labour were tied on about 41% of the vote. Obviously that was before the rise of UKIP which ate into both parties’ share, but now the Tories have consistent leads at least in the high single figures. If we’re going by record this far into leadership, Miliband was a fair bit more successful.

  44. NEIL

    Yes- I read the G report on the Idlib attack-sickening. Putin just doesn’t share our squeemishness about civilian casualties.

    I’m trying to follow the Vienna process.It is the only hope, and at one level is encouraging-all key parties involved / UN encouragement/ timetable to ceasefire & elections with no precondition on Assad going first/ Saudi has identified the “good opposition” & brokered a united stance etc etc.

    And yet the prospect of any of this sticking , given the opposing interests of Assad/Russia/Iran -and Saudi/ Gulf Arabs/US & EU seems a pipe dream.

    And even if it does , a unified ground offensive to reclaim IS held Syria is going to be a difficult thing to pull off.

    And at the heart of all this -as always is the bloody & brutal schism between Shia & Sunni Moslems.

    Reports seem to indicate that IS in Syria are taking a pounding. The flight to Libya will just shift the theatre of war against them-with no help visible from yet another post dictator rabble of sectarian clans & tribes squabbling for power. The Arab Spring really was a total misunderstanding by the West of the Arab mentality.

    I read a warning the other day by some expert or other, listing the groups who will take DAESH’s place afterit is crushed -the prospect seems bleak whilst these countries & that religion can harbour such divisive & brutal groups.

  45. “Putin just doesn’t share our squeemishness about civilian casualties.”

    When one decides how many votes one gets, public opinion isn’t such a barrier. More pertinently, Russia has this odd history of liking “strong” leaders more than any other quality, no matter how many horrible things they do.

  46. SVEN HASSEL SCHMUCK

    The only gambling I do is on the markets and they have served me very well so far after 30 + years of investing. The key is not to die when the market is at the bottom. Mind if that happens it’s only a worry to those left behind.

  47. @Colin

    I think the hope has to be that radical Islamist groups can be persuaded to pursue their objective of an Islamic Republic under Sharia law through a democratic process.

    It may well turn out that the proportion of Syrian citizens who want that kind of future may be smaller than the proportion of Syrian opposition fighters.

    Of course, that’s the problem with persuading people in previously undemocratic places to accept free-and-fair elections. They see no point in any election that doesn’t give them the government they want. It is a far more nuanced position we have achieved in the West where we can celebrate the election of a government we didn’t vote for, simply because “the people have spoken”.

    The currently mooted peace plan envisages free elections after 18 months I think. So long as that can be agreed and implemented, and that they are genuinely reasonably fair, I don’t much care who signs up to it.

    Frankly if ISIS wanted to stand candidates for the “Beheading Infidel Dogs and Enslaving Yazidi Children” Party, I wouldn’t really care at this point. Just so long as they submitted to the democratic process and abided by the rule of law.

  48. ‘Homewrecker’ (not my words) Andrea Jenkyns is being called some delightful names over on the Daily Mail website. To think that the DM were fawning over just a few months ago.

    In other news, turncoat Tory Shaun Woodward is to divorce his Sainsbury’s heiress wife. He’s apparently now bonking a cameraman.

    Lucy Allan has apparently managed to go a full 24 hours without doing anything embarrassing. She should be congratulated.

    That concludes today’s gossip round up.

  49. Neil A,

    “Frankly if ISIS wanted to stand candidates for the “Beheading Infidel Dogs and Enslaving Yazidi Children” Party, I wouldn’t really care at this point.”

    As that party description is longer than six words it would be an affront to democracy.

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