The monthly ComRes online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out today and has topline figures of CON 40%(-2), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 16%(+1), GRN 3%(nc). The changes since last month are likely just a reversion to the mean – the previous poll was the one giving the Conservatives a fifteen point lead that got lots of people rather overexcited. Full tabs are here.

If that was last month’s Twitter overexcitement, this month everyone is getting too excited about the Scottish crossbreak in the ComRes poll which has the Conservative party ahead of Labour. Don’t read anything into this: regional crossbreaks in voting intention polls are best ignored. With a sample size of 156 people the margin of error of each figure is about 8 points. On top of that GB polls are generally sampled and weighted to GB targets, so the figures within crossbreaks may be a bit off.

There aren’t many recent polls of Westminster voting intention in Scotland – at the current stage in the electoral cycle most Scottish polls are asking exclusively about the Holyrood elections. Looking at those figures there are some showing Labour and the Conservatives quite close in support (the latest MORI and YouGov polls had them within two points of each other), there are other companies (like TNS) showing a bigger gap. There haven’t been any proper Scottish polls showing the Conservatives ahead of Labour in Holyrood intentions.

Of course, it’s possible that the Conservatives are doing better than Labour in Westminster voting intentions in Scotland – we haven’t had a recent poll – but I expect this one is just a case of random noise from small sample sizes. Looking at other recent GB polls YouGov had Labour ahead of the Conservatives in Scotland, so did ICM. MORI had the Conservatives ahead. I expect the true position is that they have quite similar support, meaning that in small crossbreaks random chance will spit out some with more Tories than Labour, some with more Labour than Tories.


95 Responses to “ComRes/Indy on Sunday – CON 40, LAB 29, LD 7, UKIP 16, GRN 3”

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  1. Alec

    The political repercussions will be in direct proportion to the number of servants required to perform the “wipe clean function”.

    Kate has the opportunity to end unemployment NOW!

  2. Presumably this is a fiendish capitalist trick to destroy the jobs of the workers who previously labored over her “scrub-clean” table cloth.

  3. @OldNat

    It was in the New Statesman. See

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2015/12/jeremy-corbyn-quotes-enver-hoxha-labour-party-christmas-party

    It turns out he didn’t just say “this year will be tougher than last year” but waxed on about how Hoxha was a “tough ruler”.

    Your googling skills are pretty poor arn’t they? 1/10 Must try harder.

  4. Candy

    Thanks for the link. Just think how much easier life would have been for everyone if you had just given that in your original rant.

    But the NS doesn’t give the quote in the form you used, so where did your version come from?

    I do hope that you haven’t been inventing things like you did in your later posts.

    That would be very naughty.

  5. @OldNat

    I never make things up! You could always try the following article which gives a lot more detail:

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4637065.ece

    The whole discussion arose from me comparing the Corbynistas to the Trumpers – and I must say you’ve all done your bit to prove my point by trying to gloss over the unacceptable by claiming it’s unimportant!

  6. Does anybody think that it wasn’t rather foolish of JC to quote Enver?

    Does anybody think it wasn’t rather foolish of McDonnell to quote Mao?

    Never mind whether what they said was reported fairly or unfairly. That should have been foreseen.

    Never mind whether others could have done so without exciting comment. That must be expected.

    Was it wise, or foolish?

  7. Candy

    Since I’m neither “Corbymista” nor “Trumper” your comment (as so often) is misplaced.

    There may well be more detail in the Times but, since it lies behind a paywall, it must remain a secret between Murdoch and his readers.

    Since you have given no evidential basis for you suggestions that I highlighted earlier, then it might be safer to assume that you didn’t make them up – but that they were revealed to you by “the voice”.

    No human can compete with that authority, so I’ll leave you to chat with it.

  8. @oldnat

    “The voice’s” loss will be our gain.

  9. There is a kind of sardonic wit in the follow-up statement ( ‘but will be easier than next year’), which might lead to its being quoted by all sorts of people who are not believers in the violent repression of all opposition, just as Mao’s better known sayings might be quoted by Osborne et al. Nevertheless it is hard to believe that Corbyn was not being either foolish, as Little Red Rock hints, or, perhaps more probably, deliberately provocative.

    Either way, trivial though the incident is, there is a risk for Labour that it will feed into the overall ‘extremist’ narrative and damage them in the polls.

  10. RICHARDW

    @” Nevertheless it is hard to believe that Corbyn was not being either foolish, as Little Red Rock hints, or, perhaps more probably, deliberately provocative.”

    or both.

    It seems to me from the reports that “deliberately provocative” comes close-though I suppose we must take into account “labour sources” reportedly explaining that it was a ” “humorous reference”, ( actually an interesting phrase in itself)

    . Putting the two together one might interpret the “reference” as :-

    Well if you think my Leadership is a problem for you now-wait till next year-as a Dictator known for being a “tough ruler” once said…..nudge nudge; wink wink.

    If reports that this was met with embarased silence are correct , we might conclude that it was a mistake .

    But that depends on whether those “Labour Sources” were being humorous when they said it was a “humorous reference”.

    My inclination is that he chose the quote with care. This was in a speech after all-pre-prepared therefore & not an off the cuff remark during an interview.

  11. @ Colin

    ‘My inclination is that he chose the quote with care. This was in a speech after all-pre-prepared therefore & not an off the cuff remark during an interview.’

    So was it a joke or a threat (deselection etc)?

  12. RICHARD

    ……..a jokey threat………..or a threatening joke……….??

  13. Re: Jeremy Corbyn and quoting others…

    Never in the history of UKPR has so much been spoken by so many about so little….

    ;-)

  14. @CMJ

    “Never in the history of UKPR has so much been spoken by so many about so little….”

    :-):-):-)

  15. CMJ

    I’m surprised that no one has brought up knifings in Labour England. :-)

  16. @Oldnat

    Indeed.

    Don’t knife crimes carry a mandatory prison sentence these days?

  17. Catmanjeff

    I agree. one or two people who seem to just argue for the sake of it. Personally I don’t give a tinkers cuss what Corbyn or Trump have said as neither of them has a cat in hells chance of being elected to lead their respective countries anymore than Marine le Pen does in France.

  18. Being reported on Twitter

    ICM: Remain 42% (-1) Leave 41% (+2)
    Survation: Remain 40% (-2) Leave 42% (+2)

  19. I’ve just been looking for the tables, but I guess that will be tomorrow.

    I think that the recent events probably put the case to leave at it’s strongest, yet leave doesn’t have a clear lead.

    I can’t help but think most of the don’t knows will break to ‘remain’.

    I’ll go for ‘remain’ to win by 10 %

  20. Roger Scully has the Welsh figures

    Remain a member of the European Union: 40% (-2)

    Leave the European Union: 42% (+4)

    Would not vote: 5% (+1)

    Don’t Know: 14% (-3)

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2015/12/14/and-theres-more-the-rest-of-the-welsh-political-barometer-poll/

  21. David Cameron could do worse than showing the poll figures to Donald Tusk, and delivering him the ultimatum “if you don’t give us what we want we may end up leaving altogether”. It gives him a formidable bargaining position.

  22. There is an awful lot that can happen between now and the EuroRef. And a single event or a combination of events could easily determine the outcome. Don’t knows will often swing to the status quo at the last moment but they might just as easily go the other way if there were to be some powerful event in the final week before polling. I think any predictions or complacency at this stage is premature.

    Does anyone know if the pollsters’ efforts to amend their methods to correct the error in the GE polls are also being applied to Euro polls? In other words, do these figures reflect a change in public opinion or a change in methodology?

  23. I have been looking at US polls. Most seem to be about 400 respondents. What is the MOE on such a sample size? 5%? 6%

    Also, most, but not all, seem to be polling LV, which I assume is “Likely Voters”. I think Anthony wrote a piece recently on why polling likely voters is less accurate than polling all possible voters since, unless you know the demographics of the total population of likely voters it is difficult to sample accurately.

    Finally, is there a US equivalent of the British Polling Council or can any fool with a clipboard and an agenda publish a poll?

  24. A lot of this thread is much ado about nothing….

    Enver Hodxa (sp?) – most people don’t know who he is, much less know how to spell his name. It’s hard to imagine something as trivial as that having an effect on voting intentions.

    So what if Corbyn quotes someone who nobody’s heard of? A lot of Brits quote people who are not quite revered around the world…Churchill may be revered here, but the atrocities committed by his second government in Kenya do not linger fondly in the memory.

    If something like quoting Hodxa has an effective on the percentages of Labour support, then clearly the British public is in need of education….

    I don’t understand the obsession with comparing Labour support to Tory support in Scotland. That’s like arguing who’s going to take the silver medal in the 100m behind Usain Bolt – Justin Gatlin or Tyson Gay? The only thing that really matters in this first-past-the-post system is that Usain Bolt (SNP) is going to win.

  25. @ Michael Siva

    I respectfully disagree.

    For JC to quote Hoxha, knowing that the media narrative is that he is a “Loony Lefty” is at best naïve, at worst wilfully stupid. He must have known what the response would be. Even if you think that the response is absurd and disproportionate, as I do, it does not make it less predictable.

    It is the politics of the Student Union bar IMO, and evidence that JC has no serious pretensions to high office. I happen to think that that is a disqualification for the Leader of the Opposition.

  26. @LittleRedRock

    Come the revolution you’ll be the first to go

  27. @”Enver Hodxa (sp?) – most people don’t know who he is, ”

    Indeed-but that’s not the point.

    The point -to quote Metternich, of whom even less people have heard -is “What did he mean by that?”.

    IF Corbyn’s “signals” to his party & the country DO turn out to presage a move to turn the Labour Party into a Street Protest Movement with attached Mandated Delegates called MPs , then that will CERTAINLY be of interest to the Press.
    And the ensuing schism will receive as much news coverage as Kinnock’s Last Stand against Militant did.-and whatever turns out to be the modern equivalenbt of “…. and you end in the grotesque chaos of a Labour council – a Labour council – hiring taxis to scuttle round a city handing out redundancy notices to its own workers”. , will become just as widely remembered.

    Time will tell-but meantime Corbyn’s intention can only be divined by listening to what he says.

  28. That’s enough.

  29. Good morning all from a very mild Westminster North.

    Very interesting polling on the EU in out shake it all about referendum.
    as for Cameron’s reforms…….

    France….non

    Germany…nein

    Poland…nie

    Netherlands…nee

    Latvia ..ne

    Italy…No, grazie, ma sarà per la prossima volta

    it’s No’s all round and Cameron’s groundhog day is getting closer..
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    …….tick tock…..

  30. It’s almost lift off…..

  31. I’m fairly confident more people have heard of Metternich than Hoxha. Metternich is a pretty important figure in 19th century European politics and one of the best statesmen of the era alongside Bismarck, Talleyrand and Castlereagh. Hoxha was an Albanian dictator largely in the shadow of Tito’s Yugoslavia.

    Anthony, do we have any polling on this?

  32. @Chris

    That threat has been made before. Usually in the Student Union Bar. It’s been thirty years. They are going to need a wider wall than first anticipated.

  33. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Yes, indeed. Looking forward to Brexit.

  34. I remember that Cameron was once keen on trying to measure happiness as a key performance indicator of the nation’s well being. He argued that this was far more important than measures on economic growth, average earnings and life expectancy, for example, and, if my recollection is right, we did have some “happiness surveys” in the early days of the Coalition. I haven’t seen or heard much since, however, and I can’t really recall what surveying or polling technique was used to arrive at the notional happiness index.

    The reason this has sprung to my mind is because I’ve just seen the latest figures on domestic abuse which show a staggering 31% increase in recorded incidents over the last two years. It’s possible that some of this is due to better reporting procedures and greater interest being taken by the police, but it’s when you look at the gross figures that the scale of it starts to take the breath away. 900,000 calls to police in England and Wales in the 12 months to March 2015 and, if you think of the children involved in this, then we’re running into millions of people suffering the direct and indirect effects of physical and mental abuse in their own homes. The scale of misery is untold and it suggests endemic family breakdown.

    It then occurs to me from all this that measuring how well a country is or is not doing purely on the basis of economic and financial indicators is to likely miss what it is that makes people feel happy and content in their lives. Economic factors are important, and issues like low pay, joblessness and the difficulties of making ends meet can be contributory factors to increasing tensions within a family and household, but I’m not sure happiness and well being tracks economic prosperity in any linear way. It’s quite possible that rising economic prosperity, as measured by growth and average household income, quite often disguises chronic social problems that have far more impact on people’s happiness and sense of well being.

    These recent appalling figures on domestic violence suggest a country and society that is far from being at ease with itself. In themselves, these shocking figures may tell us something about our society that we’d rather not know.

  35. THE OTHER HOWARD

    If we do vote to leave the EU vanity project then surely Cameron has to step down and his side kick George Osborne’s plans of becoming the next PM must be put in doubt……….step up Euroskeptic Theresa May.

  36. ALLAN CHRISTIE

    Depends on whether DC supports staying or leaving but your probably right. I would be very happy with Mrs May as PM she seems to have a little of the MT about her :-)

  37. Good Afternoon from a wet Bournemouth East.

    TOP HAT.
    Metternich was indeed a very great statesman in the old school.
    Castlereagh, though lampooned by the leftist Shelley, was also great, tragically committed suicide after allegations about his homosexuality.

    The same tensions over Europe may be seen in his era, with Britain’s global aspirations conflicting with the ‘Concert of Europe’
    The Balkans were pulling Russia and Turkey into conflict.

    Great period to study, I think.

  38. @AC
    “If we do vote to leave the EU …”

    Whether we do or don’t I won’t be watching the numbers to flow in on election night. I’ll just wait for @TOH’s prediction a couple of weeks beforehand.

  39. @Oldnat
    “To be unable to do so [quote politicians] is surely the mark of poor education”

    Are you serious? My education convinces me that most sayings of politicians are not worth reading, let alone quoting, being at best half-truths either through design or ignorance.
    (I make an exception for any with the Nobel Prize for Literature)

  40. @Crossbat,

    I’d be wary of those figures.

    There’s a big difference between a “domestic incident” and something involved abuse or violence. The police have been under pressure for years to increase the reporting of non-criminal domestic incidents, as some people think that identifying calls as such will enhance the protection given to victims of domestic abuse. There’s some evidence that in fact what’s happened is that the units dedicated to investigating domestic abuse are spending a lot of time sifting through reports that amount to raised voices over who had the car keys. I don’t know the ins and outs of the figures, but it is quite possible that a large number of these “new” domestic calls would still have existed previously but just wouldn’t have been flagged as such.
    The best way to judge would probably be to seek out figures for prosecutions for domestic abuse. Unless those have seen a similar increase then it is likely that there’s no real shift in the public’s behavior.

    There’s no doubt of course that economic worries are a significant cause of stress and that for some people that could be a trigger for violence, but I’d be very careful about correlation.

  41. @Crossbat,

    Found the following from the CPS which seems to confirm that the number of prosecutions is also up so you may be onto something.

    25/06/2015

    The CPS has seen a dramatic increase in the numbers of cases concerning Violence Against Women and Girls (VaWG) – including rape, domestic abuse and sexual abuse. This year, more cases are being referred from the police, charged, prosecuted and convicted than ever before. In 2014/15, 107,104 of these crimes were prosecuted, an increase of more than 16,000 from last year (18.3%) and the highest ever in CPS records. Likewise, the numbers of those convicted rose by over 11,000 (16.9%) to its highest level ever. Child sexual abuse convictions also rose by 19%.

    This comes at a time when an increasing number of complex and non-recent cases are being brought through the criminal justice system, and significant work has been undertaken to recognise and tackle the key difficulties which affect these cases. This includes the implementation of a National Rape Action Plan, the publishing of toolkits for prosecutors and advocates on the issues of consent and offender tactics, and guidance for dealing with vulnerable victims.

    Alison Saunders, Director of Public Prosecutions said, “This is really good news for the victims of these dreadful crimes and is also testament to the hard work we have done recently to encourage victims to come forward, to work better with the police and ensure specially trained prosecutors bring the right cases to court. Where cases meet the Code for Crown Prosecutors, we will not shy away from taking cases forward, even when they are difficult and complex.

    “There has been an 18% rise in domestic abuse prosecutions, reaching over 90,000, which is in no small part due to increased public awareness in reporting such cases, as well as the dialogue surrounding new laws involving coercion and control which will be introduced later in the financial year. We are responding to these changes quickly, and have published new guidance for prosecutors on handling cases of domestic abuse.

  42. @ LRR

    Those polls run at around 6.5% moe.

    Can be crazy. HC is ahead of BS by a mile and then BS is ahead of HC when head to head with the Republicans.

  43. I read that JC’s Christmas card is more scandalous than quoting Enver. It is really desperate.

    Anyway, I start to have the feeling (chosen word, not anything definite) that the polling companies have overdone the methodological change (the only certainty is the change in methodology and not in the sampling, when sampling appears to be the problem according to their own analysis – it is used in medical science but only as a starting point).

  44. Laszlo

    The JC Christmas card that I have seen is some snow covered bicycles next to a red telephone box. Seems pretty harmless to me. But perhaps there is a quote from Ho Chi Minh inside.

  45. @Michael Siva:

    “The only thing that really matters in this first-past-the-post system is that Usain Bolt (SNP) is going to win.”

    First-past-the-post? That’s not how it works in Holyrood.

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