Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Standard is out today – topline figures with changes from last month are CON 41%(+5), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 7%(-5), GRN 4%(+1). The big drop in UKIP support is probably nothing, last month’s poll had them jumping up five points, this month has them dropping the same amount, both the up and the down are likely normal sample variation.

The rest of the poll included some interesting questions on spending and the deficit ahead of next week’s autumn statement. During the last Parliament the government’s cuts were often unpopular, but the public consistently regarded them as being necessary. MORI’s poll suggests potential trouble for the government there – two-thirds of people still think the cuts in the last Parliament were necessary, but support for further cuts is far lower. 34% think that it is still necessary to make more cuts, 32% think cuts in the last Parliament were necessary, but it’s not necessary any more, 27% think cuts were never necessary in the first place.

Asked where any cuts should and shouldn’t fall international aid, as usual, comes top on the things people would like to see cut (59%), followed by benefit payments (36%), then defence (19%). On things they’d like to see protected from cuts the NHS, as usual, comes top (73%), followed by schools (39%) and care for the elderly (28%). Full tabs for the MORI poll are here.

ComRes also have new polling for the Daily Mail today (full tabs here). Support for British airstrikes against ISIS in Syria was similar to YouGov’s poll yesterday (60% support, 24% opposition), support for intervention on the ground was higher than YouGov’s poll – in a generic question people supported British troops getting involved in a ground war against ISIS by 50% to 31%, when asked if they’d support British grounds getting involved alongside the US or France support rose to 59%.


88 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 41, LAB 34, LD 7, UKIP 7, GRN 4”

1 2
  1. Ipsos MORI has Corbyn’s net rating at -3. Yougov has it at -22. Any thoughts on why there is such a big gap, and what it might mean?

  2. I’m not surprised support has grown for the UK to start strikes against IS in Syria and even to commit ground troops as well but that’s the easy bit. It’s what the end game looks like which is the hard bit.

    All the polls are showing with regards to Syria is an understandable response after the Paris attacks and if I thought British involvement in Syria would make us safer then I too would support it.

    Maybe if Cameron said we need British involvement in Syria to show our support for France and revenge for Tunisia rather than make a case purely on military goals then the case would command more support in parliament.

    But you have to ask, after Putin’s raids on IS along with the French is there anything left for the British to bomb? And what of my ole pals in North Korea? They have been very muted of late.

  3. Not been around much through the summer but just thought I would make an observation following the Paris attacks.

    As some may recall, I live in France (nowhere near a large city, thankfully). I have been struck by the united front presented by the French people, from the left, the right and the centre and the almost total support which Hollande has received for his declaration of war on daesh and his attack campaign against these murderous fascists.

    Not quite the same in Britain, is it?

    Would it be different if it Europe were under attack from white fascists, rather than Asian ones?

    Fortunately for us all, the party leaders in 1940 were men with balls and stood up against evil.

  4. It’s slightly ironic to see the unanimity in France for bombing Syria.

    I was living in New York at the time of the attack on the World Trade Center and I remember the outrage there at french reticence. “CHEESE EATING SURRENDER MONKEYS” was the screaming NY Post headline, and ‘Freedom Fries’ were de rigeur in every diner.

    I suppose ‘plus ca change’.

  5. Yes I thought of the ‘cheese eating surrender monkeys’ when the tricolor went up everywhere. Also remembered when I was a student and the French right chanting Algerie Francaise followed by the murder of Algerians in Paris – a similar number to those killed last Friday?
    The continued denial of the effect of past and current foreign policy of France and Britain is disturbing. I used to travel regularly to NI in the eighties and was astounded at how people on the UK mainland thought that the conflict there was simply a local sectarian problem and nothing to do with them
    If only we taught history properly in school

  6. What is even more ironic is that a right’ist was President then and now it is a left wing socialist. Over 73% of French people approve his actions. He certainly seems to have taken a leaf out of Osborne’s books by stealing the policies of his opponents, such as stripping French nationality from returning jihadists, who have a dual one, extending emergency powers etc. 10 days ago, he was not even expected to get passed the fi st round of the ballot in the forthcoming Presidential elections. There is more than an even chance that he might win a second term now. I am reminded how Thatchers handling of the Galtieri invasion of British territory, ensured her victory in 1983.

    The people like a strong leader who will protect them, their country and their way of life, not an apologistic hand wringer. For that reason, i find it hard to believe that Labour would achieve 34% as the Mori poll indicates, if there was a GE tomorrow. I think we are still being misled by the polls and therefore best ignore them.

  7. It is now clear that the Labour Party is split on it’s policy with most of the parliamentary party who have been responsible in government for foreign policy in favour of allowing our military to fight Daesh without restrictions.
    It is amazing that Corbyn will allow Russia to veto a UN resolution when Russia is supposed to be bombing them. How can we allow Russia who support Assad to dictate British Foreign policy?
    It is not the first time that Labour would sent our military into battle with one hand tied behind it’s back.

  8. Robert Newark

    The 1940s parallel is interesting.

    In 1940, when it was judged that the government was failing, the PM was disposed of. Would anyone criticising a modern day Chamberlain be considered to be disloyal to the country?

  9. I was in France for a long weekend, and the De Gaulle style walk down the corridor of dress-uniformed soldiers made good TV.

    The only difference around the place I noticed after the attack (I arrived on Friday afternoon) was a rather perfunctory bag search when I enter the Eurolille shopping centre. Perhaps there were a few more soldiers on the railway stations, but regular French travellers will know that they have been around since 9/11 at least under the plan vigipirate. No doubt in Paris it was a different story.

  10. the Independent this morning is claiming that Russia and China are now prepared to come on board against Islamic State and that a UN resolution could be passed with the week. If true I would imagine that public opinion would swing very strongly behind action.

    Suspect a large majority of PLP would support and possibly (probably?) SNP. Not sure where that would leave Corbyn – he could not have asked for a worse issue to have dominated the headlines so early in his leadership.

    I have always felt he could sell his domestic policies to a significant number of voters but that his foreign policy would ultimately kill him stone dead (electorally speaking that is!) .

  11. I fail to see why left wingers such as Corbyn would be opposed to action based on a UN mandate.

  12. @David Colby

    I don’t see any irony in it at all. There is a vast difference between a decision not to participate in a military intervention using the unrelated pretext of 9/11 to take down a leader of a state of whom the US disapproved, and a desire to take decisive military action now to eliminate a terrorist group which could not have emerged but for the continuing vacuum created by that earlier failed military intervention in Iraq. In fact it seems to me that the French have been right all along.

  13. I don’t know if anyone here has seen the latest Charlie Hedbo cover.

    It’s a treat…….

    https://twitter.com/mathieumadenian/status/666549972716945408

    However, on the subject of the accuracy of Labour’s poll result here, bear in mind all major polling outfits have updated their turnout filters based on GE 2015 and that the raw polling data indicates even higher Labour support.

    The turnout for Labour in May was poor, but you must remember that support for Miliband was lukewarm even amongst left-leaning voters. Zoe Williams wrote in the Guardian the day after “It’s no wonder people couldn’t be bothered to turn out to vote for Labour; even I couldn’t be bothered”.

    Corbyn is a very polarising figure. My own belief is that this puts a bit more stiffness in the Labour VI than turnout filters based on Miliband’s results will predict. So that 34% might in practise be a couple of points higher, not lower. Just a hunch, mind.

  14. On the subject of continuing the same policy but expecting different results, I notice that we have more terrible deficit figures today.

    No doubt we continue in the same direction for the next few hundred years until we are using sea shells as money and trying to defeat ISIS with flint tools.

  15. Good morning all from central London. One of these days I will get a window seat when travelling on the tube to work.

    On Russia’s (apparent veto) why does Cameron not just phone the Kremlin and ask Putin if he will back British military action in Syria at the UN?

    To be honest what is the UN for? It’s just another expensive vanity project where heads of state can fling insults at one and other and powerful countries get away with murder.

    If we want a true global body to make a difference to the World then why have it stuck in a decrepit looking office block in a country who’s foreign policies can be attributed to most of the Worlds conflicts today?

    I know IS are a threat to us in the West but you have to ask yourself this. Are they a bigger threat to us than the annoying fascist Russian provoking governments in Ukraine and Poland who appear to be hellbent on starting WW3 with Russia?

  16. It seems that all the polls are now showing similar Con leads 6-7 points.

    Can anyone provide some info on how this might relate to polls before the election and what adjustments have been made?

    Is it a huge coincidence with some pollsters having made adjustments and some not?

    What would the polls show if using the same methodology as before the last election?

    The only hard data point is the last election so the polls are hard to interpret without knowing how they compare.

  17. Hawthorne
    I don’t quite grasp the point you are trying to make in you post of 10.06
    You are correct that Chamberlain, the appeaser, was got rid of and Churchill who had been branded a war monger, was elected when all his prior warnings proved correct. At his side he had Atlee and Halifax. Fortunately, Atlee stood with Churchill. If he had not, Halifax would have got his way, which was to do a deal with Hitler.

    A modern day appeaser, you are presumably thinking of JC should he become PM, would hopefully be dismissed in the same way Chamberlain was.

    I recall a lifetime labour voter, a close friend, telling me why he voted Tory in 1983 for the first time in his life. He was so disgusted with Labour under Foot, he said that if Labour had been in power at the time of the Falklands invasion, not only would they have surrendered the islands to Galtieri, they would probably have given them a grant to run them as well.

  18. Robert

    Chamberlain was removed because he cocked up the war effort up to that point. Had it been about appeasement he would have gone in ’39.

  19. And now Mali again.

    International Hotel-recitations from the Koran get you released………..

  20. @Robert Newark

    Hollande has actually done a good job in the crisis – his decision making has been calm and swift. He might be rubbish at economics, but he’s better at crisis handling than most of the other heads of state we’ve seen in similar situations.

    The three month state of emergency is also a good idea – it allows them to sweep every single person on their watch list, seize illegal arms and scotch nascent plans. He’s actually being tougher than Bush was after 9/11, which is interesting. Turns out the public will let you carry a very big stick as long as you speak softly and look stoic and sorrowful when using it. It’s swagger that makes people suspicious – if you appear to be enjoying it people worry you might abuse it.

    @Hawthorn – “I fail to see why left wingers such as Corbyn would be opposed to action based on a UN mandate.”

    There was an UN mandate for Gulf War 1 and Corbyn tabled a furious motion in parliament condemning it, despite the fact of Kuwait’s sovereignty being breached by invasion. There was a huge discussion about it during the Labour leadership contest.

    He’s opposed to war regardless of the circumstances, even if you are invaded (though he admires it when other people like the IRA get violent – then it’s in a just cause and worth doing).

  21. CANDY

    Whatever Corbyn’s many flaw and mistakes, it is not people like him who have been running our foreign policy since the 1990s.

    They could be a disaster. We know the current policies are a disaster.

  22. The mindset is that acts of barbarity like these cannot be the product of anything but deprivation & poverty. These are caused mainly by the Capitalist Global Economy. Other factors are any overseas action by USA, Israel, NATO etc all of which engender alienation & resentment.

    Thus the causes of Terrorism are very simple -and “we” are always part of them.

  23. @Hawthorne

    There’s nothing stopping Corbyn from putting himself forward as a negotiator for peace this time. It’s not the ’90’s, it’s 2015 and he’s a senior member of the establishment – the Leader of Her Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition and a member of the Privy Council no less.

    Let him go to Syria to negotiate on behalf of Britain. If he’s successful we’ll all cheer and apologise for being doubtful and name a Tube Station after him for good measure. If he gets beheaded, we’ll name a Tube Station after him anyway and carpet bomb Daesh in revenge.

    The point is there is nothing stopping him from putting his fine words into action. Unless he’s only up for talking and bleating from the sidelines while others take the risks…

  24. Candy

    Corbyn isn’t PM and as I have mentioned exhaustively in the past, I wanted Burnham to be leader of the Labour Party. I don’t have to answer for him, and what I think should happen is probably different to what Corbyn thinks. I set out my opinions in the previous thread.

    It was not the left that caused this terrible situation, and frankly the political establishment should be explaining themselves rather than the left. They have zero credibility on this matter.

    I look forward to Chilcott once it finally arrives.

  25. Good Afternoon everyone from a cold Bournemouth East.

    CANDY
    I think Jeremy Corbyn could really make his name for future History books by being a negotiator between Assad, the Russians, the various Syrian factions and the USA.

    By the way, since you have been on UKPR for some time, I think, why do you think the Liberal Democrat figures are as they are on the polls?

  26. I think this is moving rather too much away from discussion of public opinion towards squabbling about each other’s opinions.

    As ever, can we please not get into debates about each others’ views of, say, what to do about Syria.

  27. Candy
    Fully agree with your post at 1.21

    Returning to my earlier point about being surprised that Labour are as high as 34%.
    The party is openly at war with itself, several of the top people have openly supported terrorists in the past. Some are in favour of scrapping M15 and binning our nuclear deterrent and they want to pass on our generation’s debt to our grandchildren.
    So, they were seen as weak on economic issues. They have got weaker. They were strong on security, they are now weak there as well. And they are openly at war internally.
    Is this really the way to attract middle England to vote for them?
    I can understand that Corbyn may well have attracted new voters but is it not likely that he will have lost many former voters as well probably in greater numbers?
    Ukip’s performance in the forthcoming by election will be interesting.

  28. @Hawthorn

    When has being in opposition stopped him? Apparently he invited the IRA to Parliament two weeks after the Brighton bomb because he was trying to bring peace to NI – from the opposition backbenches.

    Why so shy now he’s on the frontbenches? This is his big chance to show us all how it’s done.

    @ChrisLane1945

    I think the LibDem problem is Farron. He’s weird in a way that makes poor Miliband look normal. He’s also trying to shift the LibDems left, which leaves little room to pick up Conservatives who may not want to vote Tory for whatever reason (they’re in a northern seat, or they’re cross with the govt for whatever reason). I wouldn’t be surprised if the LibDems had another leadership election before Lab and the Cons.

    @Robert Newark

    We’ve no idea if the pollsters have adjusted for their problems correctly. We’ll get a better idea when the Oldham by-election results come in. If it’s tight but the polls are still favourable to lab, they need to go back to the drawing board.

  29. It seems extraordinary for UKIP support to be crumbling in the current circumstances.

    Perhaps solidarity with the French is making people feel more European? I can’t think of any other explanation, if the drop is real and not an artefact.

  30. Neil A: you hit the nail on the head with your last comment, the drop is not real and this poll is just an outlier, considering every other poll in ages has had them on or close to the same 12% they got at the GE.

  31. Let’s face it, for all the huff and puff, there is little concrete evidence of any great change in VI since the election.

  32. The pollsters failed to get a good handle on UKIP support throughout the last parliament, and it looks like it continues.

  33. @Candy

    “Unless he’s only up for talking and bleating from the sidelines while others take the risks…”

    This is an excellent point. After all, Cameron is going to be flying the drones himself.

    More seriously, whilst everyone is running around incinerating their straw-man of choice, it’s worth noting that Corbyn’s position is that we should be; 1) ceasing to buy oil from Daesh through their middle-men; 2) cease selling weapons to Saudi Arabia (who directly use them to reduce Yemen to rubble, whilst most probably also passing them along to Daesh) whilst also putting political pressure on them; 3) wanting a political solution to the region, which means all party talks, excluding Daesh (which is now the mainstream view). These views are public and he has been consistently putting pressure on the government to do something along these lines.

    If he is wary of airstrikes it’s more than likely because no coherent plan has yet been put forward explaining what this will achieve (especially as with the USA, Russia and France already in the region acting, our contribution will not make any kind of significant difference) and is also aware that they carry real risks for people (bombs don’t distinguish between the guilty and innocent).

    The only other thing I have to say is that anyone who conflates explaining something with excusing or justifying it, is failing primary school level philosophy. This remains true even if the person saying it is the Prime Minister with a first class degree in part in philosophy.

  34. Got my first Lib Dem leaflet since the election today. Dodgy bar chart (uses number of councillors to put themselves second in unwinnable ward), fake data-mining feedback form, the whole lot.

    Only a very small box about Tim Farron with no specific quotes and a rather perfunctory “They are fighting to help communities like ours” to sum it up. One can only speculate as to why the Sheffield Lib Dems aren’t keen on Our Tim.

    Oh and the interminable whining about the planned felling of a small number of trees, half of which are dying and all of which will be replanted. It’s not just the Lib Dems who are guilty here, but it’s irksome nonetheless.

    Curious segment at the bottom saying “Don’t let Labour take Sheffield back to the 1980s”. Given that 50% of this ward are students, I’m not sure how well that will hit.

  35. Anarchists Unite

    Excellent post.

    However, I despair of the British political system (and this includes the voters as well as politicians) being able to take any sort of sensible action in this, or any other problem.

    It is just pathetic.

  36. @MrNameless

    “Dodgy bar chart (uses number of councillors to put themselves second in unwinnable ward), fake data-mining feedback form, the whole lot.”

    That’s hilarious! Brightened my mood certainly. Really takes ‘doing the same thing over and over but expecting different results’ to a new level :)

  37. The UN resolution draft, if the newspapers are correct, wouldn’t authorrise military intervention, hence the lack of veto.

  38. Sturgeon has said that she is ‘willing to listen’ to David Cameron’s arguments. This is a bit of a surprise and departure from the normal anti-war SNP stance.

    I think if a UN resolution is passed authorising military intervention then the SNP will support Cameron. But, if there is no UN support than it will be very brave (in the Yes Minister sense) of Sturgeon to tell her MPs to vote for war.

  39. @”However, I despair of the British political system (and this includes the voters as well as politicians) ”

    I love this sort of thing. Democracy is great when your fighting an election-but when you lose…………well must be something wrong with ” the system”………..or the “voters” who thought your lot were pants. :-)

  40. LASZLO

    @”The text, shared with the The Independent, calls on member states “with the capacity to do so” to “take all necessary measures, in compliance with international law, in particular international human rights, refugee and humanitarian law, on the territory under the control of Isil [ISIS] in Syria and Iraq, to redouble and co-ordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically by Isil… and to eradicate the safe haven they have established in Iraq and Syria”.”

    news.com/au

  41. “France circulated a draft resolution to the 15-member council on Thursday that calls on countries “to redouble and coordinate their efforts to prevent and suppress terrorist acts committed specifically” by the group, which is also known as ISIS and ISIL.
    The action rivals a Russian bid for U.N. approval of international military action against the militant group. On Wednesday, Russia submitted an edited draft of a text initially circulated to the council on Sept. 30.
    That draft urged countries to coordinate military activities with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government and has been dismissed by veto-power Britain and other members.
    Diplomats said the French draft was modelled on a resolution adopted after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.
    Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin described the French text as a “good draft” and suggested on Thursday that the two proposals could be adopted separately.”

    France 24

  42. Hello all, I hope colleagues* are well.

    After some considerable time (last in June IIRC) I have called in to see if we have anything useful about the election day pollsters’ problems. It appears we don’t, Is there any knowledge about when the investigation into the fiasco is likely to come forth with an analysis?

    *I like to use the presumptive ‘colleagues’, meaning all of us interested in polling. I admire all who contribute here, for doing so, regardless of their private views.

    Thanks to AW for keeping it going.

  43. @ Colin

    Yes, but Resolution 1368 did not authorise military action (as it didn’t refer to the appropriate Article of the Charter).

    It will be interesting though how it would be worded and what would be the domestic political consequences.

  44. Mr Nameless:

    “Curious segment at the bottom saying “Don’t let Labour take Sheffield back to the 1980s”. Given that 50% of this ward are students, I’m not sure how well that will hit.”

    I have a fair amount of contact with university students myself, and my impression is that many of them see the 80’s as a sort of mythical golden age when music wasn’t [expletive deleted] ;-)

  45. BristolianHoward

    Have a look at Number Cruncher’s analysis, using BES data.

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/11/where-the-polls-went-wrong.html/6/

  46. I remember similar if not higher levels of support for the invasion of Iraq. Remind me how that went.

  47. There is, I think, on the evidence of repeated Tory statements, including that of the Chairman of the Select Committee on Defence this a.m. on BBC1, a fault line between the position of the Government and the left – but not the whole of the Labour Party – between a statement of foreign policy and defence, that it has to be primarily in the interests of thic country and the British people, and that which sees foreign policy including the use of arms as being on behalf of peoples everywhere. This is a divide which shows itself not just in seeking justification of military action to defeat lerrorism but also in debate over aid and economic policy.
    The two are linked, of course, and are a matter of pragmatism, and of realpolitik, as much as they are of ideology or morality: the Malian premier yesterday, speking of the hotel siege, spoke of a motivation towards extremism as being derived in his country from unemployment among young men seeking to express their frustrations – in terms which could be used to describe that of young men and women in this country engaging in extremism or travelling to join ISIS.
    In terms of support in this respect for the leadership of the Labour Party in particular, it is again pragmaticism and experience which underly resistance to “popular support” – itslef highly suspect in the light of the persuasive and populist language which is employed in a dominant right-wing journalism – for military action in Syria, and so sympathy and support for Corbyn’s position.
    The problem I have [is apparently a difficultly in understanding the comments policy – AW]

  48. @Sven Hassel Schmuck

    The French Army reliving its colonial glory. What could go wrong.

  49. JOHN PILGRIM

    @” in terms which could be used to describe that of young men and women in this country engaging in extremism or travelling to join ISIS.”

    I think you probably meant to say ” …that of a tiny majority of young men & women…”

    There are around 650,000 18-24 year olds out of work in UK.

    I feel reasonably confident in the belief that very very few of them have beheaded anyone, strapped on a suicide vest, or thought remotely about joining an organisation in order to murder people who don’t adhere to a particular interpretation of the Koran.

  50. …….tiny minority………..doh !

1 2