A quick note on two EU referendum polls from the end of last week. One was by Survation, conducted for the Leave.EU campaign – tables are here. Topline figures there were Remain 47%, Leave 53%. This is interesting mostly because it shows a lead for Leave when the overwhelming majority of polling shows Remain with a narrow lead (the last poll to put leave ahead was YouGov in September). All the polls so far using the referendum question are here.

The other data was from the British Election Study face-to-face survey. This is not new data by any means, the fieldwork was conducted between May and September (mostly in May, June and July). It found referendum voting intentions of Remain 61%, Leave 39%. On the face of it this looks interesting – as discussed last week the face-to-face BES sample avoided some of the problems of the pre-election polls and got the recalled Conservative lead over the Labour party about right. Is this potentially a sign that the mainsteam polling on the EU referendum could also be getting it wrong, and be understating the Remain lead? I would be very cautious before drawing any such conclusions, not least because of the timing of the fieldwork – polls now may be showing only small leads for Remain, but back in May to July when most of the BES fieldwork was done there were some bigger leads, especially from MORI and ComRes telephone polls, which had Remain at 63%, 65% and 75% in polls at the time.


53 Responses to “Some more EU Referendum polling data”

1 2
  1. ALEC

    @” Terminal, I would say.”

    Depends what you mean by “terminal”.

    They can’t get rid of him-the result will be the same next time round because of the Party Membership.

    They ( MPs) can’t set up a different Party…..can they?

    So what will suffer is party unity presumably-and we know that impacts VI

    I can’t escape the feeling that Corbyn couldn’t care less about VI-he just wants a Bennite PLP & thats what he intends to get-whatever it does to Labour polling results.

    He moves from a one-man protest movement , wandering around attached to other people’s organisations to being in charge of his own-at Westminster , where he gets to lead a party of protest all day long , and read out grievances on national tv every Wednesday.

  2. @ Alec

    Whilst Corbyn is inneffective it must be remembered that he entered the leadership race on the basis of providing a left wing voice and not to win. The limited amount of talent on the left in Parliament is a legacy of the Blair “control freakery” years; the left and right wings of the PLP are more unbalanced than in any previous era. The problem with this is the disjunct between the PLP and the party in the country which has led to JC’s election despite any shortcomings on his part. I think that this problem cannot be wished away and the PLP are going to have confront those differences at some point. This is likely to have an ongoing depressing effect on the Labour Party’s VI

  3. @Anarchists Unite,

    Perhaps, but your starting point was that the previous policy was wrong because it produced a negative outcome and therefore should not be repeated.

    I don’t think anyone is proposing a military campaign more shocking and awesome than the Iraq invasion. We are talking about a terrorist group that was sent running by an alliance of less than 8,000 Kurds in Sinjar.

    Corbyn is trapped into a “violence never solves anything” belief system that is, to most people, simply nonsense.

1 2