Things remain very quiet on the polling front, but we do at least have the weekly ICM tracker of EU referendum voting intention. Latest figures are REMAIN 46%, LEAVE 38%. 46% is the highest ICM have recorded for Remain in their weekly tracker, though it’s still well within the normal margin of error. For now the picture from ICM’s regular polling remains one of a small but stable lead for Remain, rather than any movement in either direction.

Full tabs are here.


122 Responses to “Latest ICM Euro poll – Remain 46%, Leave 38%”

1 2 3
  1. Martyn
    Thanks. So Eu citizens in UK aren’t eligible, but Brits abroad are if they’ve been there for less than 15 years. The question remains – do the pollsters try to include these voters?

  2. @Martyn

    Anyone can register for British Library membership, however you’re not guaranteed to get it, and have to interview to explain your research purposes and needs. You may be redirected to a better library for your purposes.

    But it would almost certainly be easier to register with your local library. There are copies of “1975 Referendum” in the inter-library loan system that you can reserve at your local library. (I just checked.)

  3. OLD NAT
    “Must be something to do with proximity to France. :-)”

    Or the sovereignty over the water :-)

  4. The Malta Conference fails as African countries reject Readmission deals , & leaders fall out over funding.

    Schauble lays in to Merkel’s immigration policy with a damning remark about skiers & avalanches.

    Sweden-yes Sweden-imposes border controls.

    Tusk says Schengen is at risk of collapse.

    ………and so on to the next fiasco “conference” a week on Sunday-with Erdogan. Well at least they will be talking about the border which is most in crisis. If they found that the African’s drive a bargain too hard-they are in for another failure with Turkey.

    Meanwhile they still drown children in the Aegean & survivors plod through the Balkan mud to the razor wire.

    Anyone seriously concerned about uncontrolled immigration is going to find Cameron’s “renegotiation” letter a joke. The EU has lost control of its external borders & has abandoned Free Movement. Eurocrats still speaking of the centrality of that Pillar of the Union merely underline what a filed & crumbling organisation this is.

  5. MARTYN

    Thanks for the BBC link – a good basic starting point.

    It should however be noted that that the bill itself will have to travel through both the HoC and the HoL, so none of that article is set in stone yet.

    I would be surprised if non-Commonwealth EU nationals become eligible but I will be surprised if virtually all the GB opposition MPs in the HoC don’t push for votes for 16 year olds. That could be a concession the pro-EU Cons may be happy to make.

  6. @Barbazenzero

    I don’t see the votes at 16 happening. The Lords may agree an amendment to that effect but it will almost certainly be overturned – and as all parties (apart from the SNP, who aren’t jn the Lords anyway) now in principle support a referendum I don’t think they’ll want to push this past more than one round of ‘ping-pong’. There isn’t much Tory support for such a move, and most of those Tories who are cautious supporters said when it was debated at Committee of the Whole House that it needs to be done properly (i.e. through a specific bill extending the franchise for all elections, that allows all of the pros and cons to be properly weighed), not as a one-off. I am in full agreement with this view. Another factor is that the Electoral Commission have recommended the referendum would have to be delayed if the franchise is extended to allow for registration and so forth. Though it may not happen until late 2017 anyway, I think the government would like the flexibility. And above all the government don’t want to be accused of trying to fix it to favour ‘remain’ – a franchise extension would give that impression.

  7. What Jack says is the crucial point. 16 year olds aren’t currently on the electoral register, so if they were allowed to vote in the referendum there would have to be enough time allowed to get all the 16 year olds and people who will soon turn 16 on the register.

  8. JACK SHELDON

    You’re probably right re the HoL but Labour’s own website still states: We will give 16 and 17 year olds the vote – making sure that 1.5 million young people have the right to vote in time for May 2016, the first set of elections after the next General Election – and make sure that schools, colleges and universities do everything possible for students to be registered to vote.

    That was clearly an Ed M policy for the 2015 UK GE, but is one I would anticipate JC still supporting. The SNP will certainly support them or perhaps get their penn’orth in first in an amendment.

    If there is no support of that by Lab then it will further alienate [after the toothless Scotland bill] young voters in Scotland, where the SNP are committed to lowering the voting age for Holyrood and Scottish councils if and when they have the power to do so.

    Re your needs to be done properly, the Scottish referendum could be said to have set a precedent in giving the young a say in major constitutional decisions which will have a major impact on the rest of their lives. That would leave some wriggle room to consider making the franchise different for such “permanent” decisions only.

  9. ANTHONY WELLS

    You’re right that some extra time would be needed, as it was in the Scottish referendum.

    But even if the franchise is not offered to 16 year olds it would be an obvious age to start individually registering young “potential” voters when they are still likely to be living at home. Providing both the dates of their 16th and 18th birthdays are put on the register then it would add no other work to the process which currently exists.

  10. Colin

    “The EU has lost control of its external borders & has abandoned Free Movement. Eurocrats still speaking of the centrality of that Pillar of the Union merely underline what a filed & crumbling organisation this is.”

    Totally agree maybe my wished for collapse of the EU is closer than I think.

  11. TOH

    Its certainly not beyond imagining. The stats on this wave of migration are truly incredible.

    And the EU is in a complete mess trying to cope with it.

    The farce of Free Movement within Shengen + Zero control of outer Boarders has been exposed in the usual response of this organisation-disagreement & panic resort to national interest ( border controls).

    Key tenets such as Ever Closer Union & Free Movement are becoming a joke-parroted by out of touch politicians & ivory towered bureaucrats whilst the citizens experience the reality.

  12. Colin,

    The ‘reality’ for this citizen is that I wish the UK were in Schengen so that those who want an economic free and equal market could have it. Border controls are against the market which so many ‘conservatives’ otherwise crave. It makes no sense to me…..

    And if we are to deal responsibly with the looming migration situation we need a far stronger Europe, not a weaker one.

    Of course, you may prefer us to turn our backs on those who want to come and work and make a better life for themselves. Personally I feel we would be much better off with these migrants than with the whingers who think the alternative to the EU is a restored British Empire (or something similar, I know not what)!

  13. COLIN
    “The stats on this wave of migration are truly incredible.
    And the EU is in a complete mess trying to cope with it.”

    The stats, far from being incredible, have been, more or less, predicted in UN, OECD and the EC’s own projecttions.
    The creation of barriers to the normal open borders and the apparent failure of the Valletta Summit certainly reflect poor administration and planning during the first phase of the EU Agenda on Migration. They signal a significant task for the creation of migration transit and legitimation provisionally agreed with Turkey, but do not demonstrate a failure of Schengen or of the EU.
    There is, however, a need for UK assistance to the Syrian refugee camps to be married to support for the movement of migrants in Europe, which has multiple causes, mainly that of wealth differentials with countries with a tenth our incomes. The UK development aid programme in countries of origin needs to be linked to participation in the long-term programme of legitimising migrration in which the EU is engaged. The inclination of the present Government to curry popular support for a policy of neglect of this need for a comprehensive shared programme with Europe,,as being an acceptable alternative strategy is, I think, deplorable, in only because it is a deception.

  14. “in only” = if only

  15. COLIN
    Is this poll credible ?

    It certainly doesn’t look to be a huge outlier. A pity, though, that they polled tiny samples outwith England and provide only UK results in the article. Also, the tables don’t seem to have any of the national cross-breaks tabulated, so the overall result in England is probably worse than the headline figures for the “remain” campaign, which would certainly be the highest I’ve noticed.

    If nobody posts them this afternoon I’ll calculate them myself tonight.

  16. JOHN B

    @”Of course, you may prefer us to turn our backs on those who want to come and work and make a better life for themselves.”

    Hardly an accusation which can be levelled at UK !!!:-

    “Looking at the estimates by nationality, between July to September 2014 and July to September 2015:
    • UK nationals working in the UK increased by 122,000 to 28.09 million
    • non-UK nationals working in the UK increased by 326,000 to 3.22 million”

    (ONS)

    Thats 73% to the ” non-UK nationals”

    “Looking at changes in non-UK nationals working in the UK between July to September 1997 and July to September 2015:
    • the number of non-UK nationals working in the UK increased from 986,000 to 3.22 million
    • the proportion of all people working in the UK accounted for by non-UK nationals increased from
    3.7% to 10.3%

    Thats an increase of 278%

  17. BARBAZENZERO

    Thanks-I have basically lost any trust in any of them.

    Now we are told on the new thread that something as fundamental as sample definition is in question-how many years have they been doing Opinion Polls?

  18. COLIN

    I must go out shortly, but it’s worth noting that the Survation poll is already on wiki and looked at compared to other recent polls it’s not a huge outlier. All the more reason to read and ingest the new thread on the BES.

  19. JOHN B

    Why are those who do not want this country to be in the EU “whingers” to use your phrase. I have always felt that when people use offensive terms like this it’s because they feel unsure of their own position.

  20. @toh

    It could be because they constantly criticise but seldom offer a realistic alternative.

  21. HIRETON

    Except most of us don’t criticise, we just want out, so not whinging at all. Just being outside, once we have uncoupled what is needed, will mean a better future and increased prosperity for Britain IMO.

1 2 3