The [Greens] haven’t ,the wipeout can come because they are near a “Vote Threshold”.

Sure it can happen, I just don’t believe it can have happened without a cause which is known, and without that corroboration I wouldn’t rely on the poll for the degree of accuracy required.

1% doesn’t seem much, but its a big percentage of their previous vote.

The loss would also have to be evenly spread for a wipe-out to occur, and it is likely that in some regions [Highland?] regional environmental issues or the performace of individual MSP’s will result in local losses or gains.

SSP/Sol are in a similar situation. Their total vote (and number of seats) will be less than previously, but that does not exclude the possibility that both groups might still win seats. Some of their net loss in votes may go to the Greens.

Labour may offset its losses by two gains from independents, but will there be other sucessful independents?

My guess is that, although Labour will be the largest loser and SNP will overtake them, the net changes will be somewhat less than predicted.

I don’t necessarily disagree, but that doesn’t make it less worthwhile.

Even polls that look like they tell us what we already know, are worthwhile because they can both confirm suspicions and sometimes tell us things we didn’t suspect.

Peter.

In all honesty I suspect that a worldwide poll on Scottish independence would yield a majority for “don’t know” or possibly “don’t care” with the USA voting overwhelmingly for “where’s Scotland?”

I think Northern ireland breaks down in to two. Part of the United Kingdom, or part of a United Ireland. Those who want the united Kingdom to remain oppose scottish independence, and those who want a United Ireland probably support it.

I doubt there is any enthusiasim in either camp for a United Scotland and Ulster, nor is there any in Scotland. Oddly enough although I suspect many unionists would rather have an Independeant Ulster than a United Ireland, I doubt that many republicans would prefer an Independant Ulster to the UK.

I would be interested in Irish ( north and south) and Welsh views on Scottish Independence, but then I would be interested in any oppinion polls world wide on the issue.

I know the BBC regularly ( well annually) does a survey of world oppinion, and it would be interesting if they included a question on Scottish Independence in that.

Peter.

But either the SNP or the Tories are the opposition, and at the moment its the SNP. The idea that you can never vote for the opposition because of a potential referendum is nonsense, unless you’re going to have a permanent government which is totally undemocratic.

“If I were a Scottish Tory unionist (and only one of those three is right), I think I’d be tempted to vote SNP to kick out Labour, knowing that I could still vote No in a future referendum.”

In my case, two out of three, but for any unionist flirting with the idea of voting SNP to give Labour a bloody nose there is a real danger that a stong SNP showing builds up momentum that your potential “no” vote in a future referndum will not stop.

Even the PM has cottoned on to this with his impassioned article in the Telegraph this week. Only snag for him is that he could not bring himself to state the obvious conclusion.

In Scotland there are effectively four parties from which the next Holyrood administration will be formed.

One is separtist, three are unionist (of which one is a bit wobbly).
Two are in the current coalition, two are not.
Both parties in the current coalition are (nominally) unionist.

So, if one is unhappy with he current administration, but is not in favour of independance, then by definition, one should vote for the unionist party which is not part of the current coalition.

There are votes from the heart, and votes from the head. How many Scots will ponder long enough to allow their heads to steer their cross into the blue box against the traditional pull of their hearts ?

Paul H-J

The stories in the papers today about how unpopular TB is in Scotland and how unwelcome Trident is are from the SNP’s YouGov survey in mid-March. they didn’t ask voting intention in that survey. But they did in the mid Feb survey and never relaesed the results, even though tyhey did release some of the questions and answers, like should McConnell and Salmond have a head to head debate.

Its still suspicious that the mid Feb voting intentions weren’t given to the media even though the SNP have done for all previous surveys.