Polls all round. ICM’s monthly Scottish poll ahead of the May elections has constituency voting intentions of
CON 16%(+3), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 16%(-1), SNP 34%(+1) and regional voting intentions of CON 15%(+1), LAB 28%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc), SNP 32%(-1). Using Weber Shandwick’s swingometer this would leave the SNP and the largest party and the current Labour/Lib Dem ruling coalition unable to form a majority alone.

For all you you keep begging for one in my comments section, the BBC carries an ICM poll in Wales – the first Welsh voting intention poll for some years. Unfortunately, while they appear to have asked voting intention questions, since they report that the Labour vote would rise by 7% were Tony Blair to resign, they are nowhere to be found in the article itself. We’ll have to wait for ICM to provide the tables on their website. The poll found that half of respondents were unaware that there even were elections in May, and only 40% said they intended to vote. Only 43% of respondents were able to name Rhodhi Morgan, with the other party leaders in Wales having name recognitions in single figures.

Finally, MORI have conducted a opinion poll in Northern Ireland. Current voting intention stands at DUP 25%, Sinn Fein 22%, SDLP 20%, UUP 16%, Alliance 9% and Greens 3%, PUP 1%, Conservatives 1%, UK Unionists 1%. This represents a huge drop in the Ulster Unionist vote, and a large advance for the Alliance (though historically polls in Northern Ireland have tended to over-represent the level of support for moderate parties and underestimate that for the extremes). Interestingly, if there has been a shift from the Ulster Unionists to the Alliance then the balance between parties designated as nationalist and those designated as unionist will be very close indeed.


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