There is a new YouGov Scottish poll in this morning’s Times. Topline Holyrood voting intentions are pretty much unchanged from YouGov’s last Scottish poll a month ago, just before Jeremy Corbyn became Labour leader. Constituency vote stands are CON 19%(+1), LAB 21%(-1), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 51%(nc), regional vote stands at CON 19%(+1), LAB 20%(nc), LDEM 5%(+1), SNP 45%(nc), GRN 6%(nc). There is no obvious Corbyn effect, positive or negative.

Voting intention in another referendum on Scottish independence is also unchanged from last month, still at YES 48%, NO 52%.

The poll also asked about people’s attitudes towards income tax in Scotland and at what level it should be set once the Scottish government is given greater powers over taxation. There was relatively little support for a cut in income tax in Scotland – 60% opposed a tax cut funded by cuts to benefits or tax credits, 74% opposed a tax cut funded by cuts to money spent on public services. Attitudes towards an increase in Scottish income tax were more mixed, 57% would be opposed to increasing income tax to spend on benefits or tax credits, but 52% would support increasing income tax to improve Scotland’s public services. Full tabs for the Scottish poll are here.


11 Responses to “Latest YouGov Scottish polling”

  1. Something for every journalist then.

  2. Tories score that high next May they’ll be dancing a jig!

  3. As Roger Mexico has previously commented Corbyn has unusually high recognition for a new leader and yet there has been no significant Corbyn bounce in Scotland.

    The stated strategy of many Corbyn supporters is to enthuse non-voters and left-leaning voters in Scotland.

    Not encouraging so far…

  4. Interesting poll.

    See Labour and the Conservatives within MOE of each other in Scotland is quite remarkable.

    So since 1992, both Labour and the Conservatives have slid totoally out of view.

    The status quo regarding the Union surely cannnot hold.

  5. JP: do remember that some current polling methodolgies would be unable to detect parties attracting former non-voters – for example if you merely calculate a person’s likelihood to vote based on their demographic data (age, ethnicity, class etc) then you wouldn’t detect a surge in youths voting for Labour because, in your model, those people’s vital statistics, and therefore their likelihood to vote, hasn’t changed.

  6. @Polltroll:

    I agree that it is true that polling methodology would not detect a surge in youth voting but that is not surprising as no poll has ever had such a surge to previously detect.

    That includes the last two elections which many predicted would have an atypical youth surge (for the Lib Dems in 2010 and Labour in 2015).

    2010 is particularly interesting. The Lib Dems built their strategy on the youth vote. Then, not only did they get FEWER seats after significantly underperforming their opinion poll ratings, but they then received torrents of abuse from a youth demographic who had failed to vote the Lib Dems into a stronger negotiating position on tuition fees etc.

  7. If not clear from my above post, the Lib Dems underperformed their poll ratings largely because of a poor youth turnout.

  8. Stephen W,

    They may well suffer a lot due to tactical voting on the constituency vote, but I don’t think that 19%, or at least close to it, would be that unrealistic for the Tories on the list vote. A result of about 16-17% seems more probable.

  9. BILL PATRICK

    Although neither you or I could possibly predict the Conservative list vote in the 2016 Holyrood election you may have a point about them polling a lot higher than many people expect.
    In recent council by elections a lot of Labour voters gave the Conservatives as their second preference.

  10. I regularly check your website and the websites giving details of Local By-elections. In England the results of both seem to have parity. In Scotland, however, the swing from Labour to the S N P was 25% in July and August which seemed to have some parity. In September and October it was 8%. This does not appear to have come through opinion polls which bearing in mind we are working from a point where each party had 37.5% should show the S N P in the low 40s. There can be differences between a party’s performance in each tier of government but this is excessive.

  11. ROGER BRICKNELL

    Iwas interested in your posting regarding swings from Labour to SNP in council by elections.
    Unfortunately the statistics are away above my knowledge, providing you are willing and allowed to do so could you possibly explain that posting in simpler terms?
    Thank You