ComRes released their monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail last night, topline figures were CON 39%, LAB 30%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. While the nine point Conservative lead looks similar to most recent polls, note that ComRes have been showing larger Conservative leads of late (typically around 12 points) so comparing like-to-like this represents a narrowing of the lead. The poll was conducted over the weekend, prior to Jeremy Corbyn’s speech (tabs here)


241 Responses to “ComRes/Mail – CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. Oh, those liver dumplings mentioned in the wiki article are delicious (especially in a broth).
    Just to stay in the realm of polling did Cripps’s vegetarianism contribute to an unfulfilled political career, even if he was respected for “his integrity and … principles”.

  2. Dez,
    For what it’s worth, I agree with that, apart from the bit about the monarchy. I actually found a few moments of Corbyn’s big speech quite inspiring, and it is very refreshing to have a person of principle at the head of one of the major parties for a change.

    I disagree with most of his ideas, and think he would be very bad for the country if elected PM, but I can still respect him.

  3. ANARCHISTS UNITE

    […]the ‘moderates’ are rather confused. On the one hand they don’t want Labour to lose, they would all like government jobs after all, but on the other hand they don’t particularly want Corbyn to win, because that would mean that their position (nothing we can do, no alternative) is wrong, and they’d all look pretty silly. Hence why there’s the present campaign of briefing against – they’re all hoping that this will somehow cause brand Corbyn to collapse.

    It’s worth pointing out that this is exactly what happened over the last five years as well, ever since Miliband was elected. The dissent was less open, but still found itself into the papers and undermined the Party. And of course it was completely ineffective at either of its objectives of getting Labour elected or replacing Miliband.

    The question is whether the ‘moderates’ will be allowed to get away with it for the next five. I actually suspect that the most of them will end up effectively expelling themselves by alienating all those around them by their antics or resigning in a fit of pique. They certainly won’t be able to rely on the NEC to save them, no matter how much they annoy their local Party.

  4. Laszlo
    Re Cripps. I don’t know about whether vegetarianism contributed to Cripps’ unfulfilled political career, but it would account for why he looked so b—-y miserable all the time.

  5. The issue with the trident debate has highlighted the difficulties of Mr Corbyn’s general approach in that whilst he can in theory override opposition from his m.p’s by appealing to the membership thru delegation it can also equally show that there will be at times a lack of enthusiasm of even strong opposition to his desired aims now if he accepts these occasional setbacks then that is all well and good but with the trident debate and the knowledge that the majority of his m.p’s and shadow cabinet would oppose him he chose to set up debate via conference delegation in which he might well of achieved tactic approval for his position thou that is debatable as this appears to be an issue which splits the membership but then the formidable fly in the ointment the two biggest unions and funders make it clear that they will not support such a measure as they see this policy as a direct threat to the livelihoods of a section of it’s members this appears to put an end to the matter with talk of policy reviews i.e. kick it into the long grass. Now a process of taking down m.p’s and purging Blairites or any other undesirables who refuse to bend to the new reality and the assumption that members not suitably enthused to the corbynista program will be compelled to leave and give space to an ever growing base of radical leftist might well come to pass but I can’t see the unions changing there stance on this issue any time soon and with labour as reliant on there support and funds than for a many year I would suggest that they are a friend Mr Corbyn would be wise not to cross.

  6. @ ANARCHISTS UNITE

    ‘…the ‘moderates’ are rather confused. On the one hand they don’t want Labour to lose, they would all like government jobs after all, but on the other hand they don’t particularly want Corbyn to win,..’

    Reminds me of the joke doing the rounds at Labour conference:

    The bad news is that most of the PLP are careerists – the good news is that most of the PLP are careerists.

  7. @PeteB
    If by flatulent corpse you mean the Body Politic – I think you make a good point.
    Didn’t know you were such a revolutionary.

  8. Valerie
    Oh yes, I’m in the People’s Army.

  9. Peteb

    I did not vote for Corbyn, and I do not see him as a PM.
    Can not imagine, he or Cameron will be there in 2020.

    My guess that machine politics will return.
    If Tom Watson can help manoeuvre a 3 times election winner out of office, I am sure if it is required to help Labour, he will help JC spend more time with his family and retire gracefully after changing the debate,

    However what do I know,
    Nobody predicted the SNP winning nearly ever seat in the GE in sept 2014 or, JC winning 60% of the labour selectorate in may 2015.
    The political commentators are not in control anymore.

  10. Silly me. I never even realized that political commentators were in control. :)

  11. David Colby

    Arguably, they were (or believed they were) in control of creating the agenda that we ignorant punters would follow.

  12. @Pete B

    Laszlo
    Re Cripps. I don’t know about whether vegetarianism contributed to Cripps’ unfulfilled political career, but it would account for why he looked so b—-y miserable all the time.

    What an unhealthy lot those vegans and vegetarians are…..

    ;-)

    http://cok.net/blog/2015/07/vegan-ultra-runner-sets-record-on-appalachian-trail/

  13. I bet he could’ve done it in half the time if he’d had steak and chips and a pint before he started. Plus a fag break half way of course :-)

  14. I’m pretty sure William Shirer addressed the “Hitler was a vegetarian” idea in his mammoth Rise and Fall of the Third Reich, but it isn’t mentioned in the index, and I’m damned – DAMNED, I say! – if I’m wading through all 1300 pages to find it. Suffice to say, I recall his conclusion was that Hitler wasn’t a vegetarian, but he ate very little meat. So we can all be right, as long as we avoid categorical statements.

    Peace and agreement. The unlikely legacy of Adolf Hitler.

  15. NEDLUDD

    There’s a lot of spads and apparatchiks at brewers green, whose own politics is centre-right (to be diplomatic) who are scared of losing their meal ticket, but it’s going to have to be done if Corbyn wants to stay in power. Those who have chosen careers in the Labour party’s apparatus aren’t going allow something as trivial as a huge democratic mandate get in the way of their career plans. Some might be convinced to come on side, but most will have to be forced, kicking and screaming, resisting every inch of the way or else removed entirely from the party.

    There was a very revealing shot in a short film John Harris made for the Guardian, showing the massed ranks of young, besuited Party functionaries exiting after the leadership announcement[1] all with faces like thunder. Meanwhile Corbyn’s much more heterogeneous fans, excluded to make space for them, celebrated outside.

    But the real problem with these people isn’t that they are entitled, right-wing careerists with contempt for anyone outside their own narrow circles, especially Labour’s members and voters. It’s that they’re simply no good at their jobs. We saw this continuously throughout the leadership campaign, but even the basics of organisation seem beyond them., never mind such ‘modern’ things as social media.

    It’s obvious that Corbyn and especially Watson realise this and I can see a massive clear out and possible decentralisation happening. But I don’t think it will be pretty. And existing networks of patronage may mean that a lot of resentment spreads to the PLP.

    [1] They appear to have given most of the tickets to the event to themselves rather than candidates’ supporters or indeed the media.

  16. Laszlo
    CMJ
    Pete B

    Would that be Cheese and Onion Cripps?…

  17. Lol!

    Oh for a poll! We’ve done the EU, Trident, vegetarians, Stafford Cripps and Hitler. What next? Anyone remember Lansbury and his resemblance or not to Corbyn?

  18. Oddly enough, Lansbury met Hitler and came away convinced he was a man of peace – because he was teetotal, a non-smoker and a vegetarian.

    I’m seeing Corbyn in a completely new light

  19. Pete B

    “Oh for a poll!”

    Well, there’s the latest tranche from the Ipsos-MORI poll.

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3629/Boris-Johnson-most-popular-prospective-Conservative-leader.aspx

    In one of the dreaded “More likely” questions – Which one of the following politicians I am going to read out, if any, would make you most likely to vote for the Conservative party if they were leader?”

    England seems to like BoJo – but whether this has any meaning would have to be considered in line with 49% of Scots respondents saying they would be “more likely” to vote Tory with one of those named.

    The proposition, that even half of them would seriously consider voting Tory, would only be actively considered by the likes of the 8% of respondents who considered Cameron to be “left-wing”, or the 5% who thought Corbyn was “right wing”!

  20. Sorry. Forgot to cancel the italics after quoting the question.

  21. Prophet of more doom,

    Corbin has reneged on his tuition fee promise, according to the Financial Times

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/636ab014-682d-11e5-97d0-1456a776a4f5.html#axzz3nLj3fmYi

  22. Tidings of comfort and Rajoy – Spanish PM calls Spanish GE for 20th December.

  23. ON
    Thanks for that link. It’s clear who should be the next Tory leader if they want to make gains from UKIP. Surely Boris will have to modify his buffoon act if he goes for PM though?

    Couper
    I couldn’t read the article (behind paywall)m but two things occur to me. 1) Corbyn seems to be backtracking on a lot of things, and 2) What exactly is the state of Labour party policy at the moment? Are the previous policies still in place until altered by some sort of consultation process, as Maria Eagle seems to believe? If not, what?

  24. Lastest poll for the Spanish GE – TNS – Demoscopia (21-28 Sept) – (nearest UK equivalent after the backslash):

    PP/Conservatives – 27.9%
    PSOE / Labour – 23%
    Podemos – 15.9%
    Ciudadanos /LD – 14%
    IU/United Left – 4.2%

  25. Pete B

    “Corbyn seems to be backtracking on a lot of things”

    Isn’t there a variant of “The Red Flag” that covers this?

    The working class can kiss my arse,
    I’ve got a foreman’s job at last

    RAF

    You are in line for Pun of the Year Award!

  26. @Pete B

    Yes, I think many people thought that because Corbyn was elected on a policy platform then those policies would become Labour Party policy, but that is not the case. All the existing Labour policies, Trident, tuition fees etc remain in place until a policy making body changes them. That is the National Policy Forum(an elected body) which reports to annual conference and the report is accepted or rejected.

    The Britain in the World report passed at conference included the commitment to Trident Renewal.

    So it seems that policy can’t be changed till next conference, well after the May elections and the Trident Westminster vote. But maybe a Labour Party person can confirm.

  27. @Roger Mexico

    “It’s worth pointing out that this is exactly what happened over the last five years as well, ever since Miliband was elected.”

    Well, yes that is part of the antagonisms of the problem. Once again they believed that the crown should have been handed to them and once again they’re not dealing with a fair and square defeat in an election well. It’s certainly not helping their cause, or garner sympathy, for them all to do impressions of David Milliband.

    @Syzygy

    Lol!

  28. PETE B

    Re the Corbyn fees FT article, it is now at https://archive.is/JLCwF if you don’t want to sign up for FT services.

    Reminds me of the old saw: “I used to be indecisive but now I’m not so sure”.

  29. Couper
    Thanks. Surely Corbyn will have to stop spouting his own ideas if they differ from party policy, or else it will just cause confusion. If he must do it, surely he must at least give an equal mention to party policy?

    Also, can they possibly go another whole year with the leader clearly at odds with party policy on a number of issues? He talks about wider consulation and so on, but he needs to get on with it and perhaps hold an interim conference in the spring. Will the party rules have to be changed to include consulation with the members? If so, how does that happen?

    Sorry about all the questions, they’re not all aimed at you. It just seems a complete muddle at the moment. I wonder if the Labour party themselves know what’s going on?

  30. @ Roger Mexico

    Your comment on the Labour Party bureaucracy is excellent.

    And no, it won’t be pretty. However, I think it will be an alternative centre set up by Watson first rather than sweeping right away. But the sweeping (using sweeping for the organisational, and purge for the political structures) will happen then. And yes, patronage, although not at the Japanese proportions, is part of the U.K. political system (broken in the US at different times in different states by the 1970s).

  31. Twitter says YG VI poll “imminent”.

    Pete B asks – and it is given!

  32. Polls have now closed in today’s seven Scottish council bye-elections.

    I expect everyone to claim that “things are moving in our direction”.

  33. YouGov/Sun: (via NC)

    CON 37 (-2)
    LAB 31 (=)
    LIB 7 (+1)
    UKIP 17 (+1)
    GRN 2 (-1)

  34. @ RAF

    Thanks for the Spanish poll figures. So the drop in the radical left stopped. As the nationalists also stalled, it will be an interesting election in sunny Spain (at least it seems that there won’t be a broadcast of “the sky is clear above Spain”).

    Interesting times for coalition negotiations.

  35. That Green 2 is the lowest they’ve recorded in a while.

  36. Barbazenzero
    Thanks. That sheds a flicker of candlelight on the process.

  37. Couper

    Thanks for that outline. Presumably, unless they have a mechanism for putting a policy “on hold”, then Corbyn is being devious and misleading to say (as the BBC has reported) Labour may have to go into next year’s Holyrood elections without having a clear position on Trident.

    The Labour leader, who is visiting Scotland, said he hoped the position would have been resolved by then.

    But he told BBC Scotland that he could give no guarantee.

  38. @MrNameless

    Logical, I suppose. Lots of the anti-austerity types obviously drifting back to LAB. Of course, in the minds of some Corbynistas recruiting these Greens back, along with a few non-voters (who tend not to vote) will be enough to win the next GE.

    The Sun are making a lot out of these comparative Leader of the Oppo ratings. Which confuses me a bit, as YouGov didn’t exist to take a rating on any oppo leader until Duncan Smith. Perhaps AW can clarify. But whichever way it is calculated there is no evidence whatsoever that JC has made any sort of breakthrough with the wider public.

  39. ON
    Thanks for the poll figures. I think I’ll have to write that one off as ‘no change’, mainly because I can’t think of any reason why Tories would have lost 2% or indeed Lib and UKIP gained 1%. It is encouraging for UKIP though. Highest since 2nd May I think.

  40. @OldNat @Couper

    It seems that Mr. Corbyn’s approach to many of these difficult issues is to say Labour will have a debate, that shadow cabinet members can form their own views and to imply that there would be a free vote if necessary. All well and good as a strategy for holding the shadow cabinet together, and it is true that the public don’t like the perception that politicians are just towing a party line. But the implication is that the official opposition will have no policy on lots of things they’d be expected to have a policy on – that surely isn’t sustainable or desirable.

  41. @Pete B, possibly EU incoherence is in the news?

    Cons joint lowest since May, UKIP joint highest since April. Greens haven’t been this low since 2014.

  42. wood
    You’re probably right. A bit of drift from Tories to UKIP because of the immigration chaos, and a few Greens joining Labour because of Corbyn, offset by a few leaving for the Libs because of Corbyn.

  43. FT: But one member of the shadow cabinet said that the policy would now be consulted on more widely: “It’s like everything else from Jeremy’s leadership campaign, it doesn’t automatically become policy.”

    Becomes

    Corbyn shelves proposal to scrap tuition fees

    That’s a bit of a stretch.

  44. @LurkingGherkin

    You’re right, it is. Though previously if someone made a firm commitment to something whilst standing as leader, and was then elected leader, it would be taken as a given that it would become policy – at least for the time being.

  45. Pete B,

    The Tories may have lost some support simply during to being out of the public eye, but that’s overintepreting a small change.

  46. @Roger Mexico

    I had concluded that many within the Labour Party bureaucracy were no good at their jobs long before the leadership campaign kicked off.

    In the general election campaign, had you been party to the draft copy for leaflets and mailshots written from on high and intended to be used by constituency parties when campaigning in marginals, you would have been truly shocked. Repetitive platitudes in utterly inauthentic ad-speak for the most part.

    In this CLP at least we basically tore up all that draft copy and rewrote our own from scratch, giving a narrative that appealed to principles while still informed by polling. Result: gain from the Conservatives in contrast to every other seat in the region.

  47. Yes 1% doesn’t mean much. I was just trying to find some common ground with Wood.

  48. Phil Haines
    “Repetitive platitudes in utterly inauthentic ad-speak for the most part. ”

    A bit like the Ed Stone then.

    I must admit I’ve always wondered why young chaps and chapesses straight from university seem to get jobs at party HQs. Most of them haven’t even had a job in an advertising agency. And how someone in their 20s can be a special advisor to a minister is barmy. This is not just a fault of the Labour Party. If Corbyn clears them all out and gets in some people with actual life experience in different parts of the counntry it can only be a good thing.

  49. @OldNat

    Yes ‘straight talking’ Jez is not being very straight. Labour does have a policy it is Tridents Renewal.

  50. One of the fun things about any election (even council by elections with fairly derisory turnouts) is the way that party (any party) apparatchiks try to spin things

    LiS folk in Glenrothes West & Kinglassie talk to Courier reporter, as the votes are tallied – “First murmurs from the #Labour camp is that “this is no walkover”. Get the impression SNP are leading, but not by much”

    Result – SNP win on 1st preferences –
    SNP – 59.0% (+16.5)
    LAB – 31.9% (-9.3)
    CON – 6.2% (+3.2)
    GRN – 3.0% (+3.0)

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