ComRes released their monthly telephone poll for the Daily Mail last night, topline figures were CON 39%, LAB 30%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 4%. While the nine point Conservative lead looks similar to most recent polls, note that ComRes have been showing larger Conservative leads of late (typically around 12 points) so comparing like-to-like this represents a narrowing of the lead. The poll was conducted over the weekend, prior to Jeremy Corbyn’s speech (tabs here)


241 Responses to “ComRes/Mail – CON 39, LAB 30, LD 9, UKIP 12”

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  1. As in many other discussions (e.g. EU) there are two different opinions on the nuclear deterrent and those holding opposing views are unlikely to ever agree.

    If I can bring the point back to one I raised earlier in the thread – it will be interesting to see what effect Corbyn’s declaration about non-use of nukes has on VI – if indeed the public at large has evn noticed.

  2. Pete B

    While you are right that on WMD (as on many other issues) partisans are likely to be unconvinced by opposing partisans, the importance of the debate is for voters who don’t pay much attention to issues of politics (or geo-political positioning).

    Such folk (probably the majority in E&W [1]) have not been exposed to having WMD being debated, since the Westminster parties have presented a united front on the issue.

    [1] In Scotland, the situation is a bit different, with the governing party taking a strong anti-WMD stance (though they haven’t persuaded a majority of the population to share their position – yet.

  3. @Nedludd

    “If this the case, and if nuclear weapons make the world a safer place and war between states less likely, then why is Britain signed up to the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and other such international agreements?”

    Britain isn’t really signed up to the spirit of the NPT, is it? It can still retain and renew its existing nuclear arsenal. The NPT is simply a device to prevent other countries catching up.

    “If you follow this logic to it’s conclusion then rather than preventing countries like Iran from getting nuclear weapons we ought to be encouraging them! After all, the middle-east has been ravaged by war in previous years, wouldn’t selling every major state there nuclear weapons put an end to this nightmare?”

    That depends. If I were Iran I would definitely try to pursue nuclear weapons. If I were the UK, I would try my best to prevent that from happenening. Why? Because the advantage to bring a nuclear state lies in there being very few. The more there are, the more the advantage of being a nuclear state diminishes.

    If all states in the ME were nuclear states diplomacy would stand a much better chance of success as the tactical advantage enjoyed by Israel would be eroded. States would be forced to act more rationally and predictably.

  4. @Pete B
    “it will be interesting to see what effect Corbyn’s declaration about non-use of nukes has on VI – if indeed the public at large has evn noticed.”

    I suspect it wont have a lot of effect .. there can’t be many people left to whom this will come as a surprise regardless of whether one is a supporter or opponent of Corbyn

  5. @NedLudd

    “Who do we nuke in retaliation when the enemy is a non-state actor?”

    We can actually make this more explicit. The millenial cult, Aum Shinrikiyo (responsible for the sarin gas attack on the Tokyo subway), were known to be attempting to acquire uranium in order to make their own nuclear weapon. Assuming that they had done so and, for whatever reason, they detonate the bomb under London. What’s our response supposed to be? Strike Tokyo? Hit the region of Australia where they were supposedly working on it?

  6. Jamie Ross tweet –

    I’m on the train to Edinburgh to cover Corbyn’s visit tomorrow and just been told he won’t be speaking to journalists. Well worth the trip./i>

    So Corbyn is continuing the practice of so many previous leaders of Westminster parties – “seagull management”, as it’s known.

  7. Not sure why people are discussing the nuclear thing so heatedly when everyone knows the voters won’t put a pacifist into Downing Street (as we know from past elections and opinion polls on the nuclear issue).

    Working class Britain has been keen on nukes ever since Ernest Bevin came back from the UN and said “We’ve got to get one of these things with a bloody big Union Jack on it”. And Trade Union Britain agrees with those sentiments.

    The majority of middle class England wants it for reasons of deterrence rather than patriotism. But regardless of the reasons they’ve made an alliance with the working classes on this issue.

    The middle class Corbynistas don’t like it, but they are a minority that can’t swing elections, which is why poor old Lab had been trying to get it’s not very bright leader to row back from his CND stance.

    The whole thing is like debating how many angels can dance on a pin. Completely pointless. The next PM will either be a Conservative or a Lab person who is not Corbyn and who has signed up to nuclear deterrence.

  8. @Candy

    “Not sure why people are discussing the nuclear thing so heatedly when everyone knows the voters won’t put a pacifist into Downing Street”

    Good thing for Corbyn that he’s not a pacifist then.

    On a related note, as a neutral it is intriguing to watch the evolution of supposed one-word insults to describe Corbyn – first he was a Stalinist, then that had to go away because of his commitment to democracy; then he was an Islamist, but that’s now died because of his comments on Saudi Arabia; now he’s a pacifist. Who knows in five years time he could be a Prime Ministerist :)

  9. Kentdalian
    Corbyn’s personal views are probably as well-known as they are ever going to be. What is new is the implication that whatever the policy of the party he leads, and whatever the military situation he would not press the button.

    It’s an interesting situation when the leader of a party rebels against its agreed policy, and that a potential PM puts his own principles above the defence of the nation.

    If this has sunk into the electorate, the next poll could be very interesting indeed.

  10. Pete B

    Half the shadow cabinet are rebelling against party policy on a daily basis … why she he be any different ? :-)

  11. should not she !

  12. @Pete B

    The thing that will effect VI is not what Corbyn said but rather the shadow cabinet ministers lining up to denounce what he said. The public don’t vote for divided parties and the don’t vote for a leader that lacks authority within his own party.

  13. @Anarchists Unite

    The deadliest insult against Corbyn and his followers is “middle class luvvy” (because it’s true).

    I was struck with how middle class all of his followers were. At least the Blarites had some working class elements (like Alan Milburn, Alan Johnson and Prescott) – Thatcher too had her working class elements like Tebbit.

    Corbynism is pure sandal wearing vegetarian lefty-middle class. Which explains their hostility to peolple like Danczuk and Mann. The only working class types they like are people from a century ago who wore cloth caps and are safely dead. They can’t bear the live ones like Danczuk because they just don’t know their place!

    That tone deafness to working class issues like immigration and love of nukes is what will scupper their attempts to win power.

  14. Well, we had all kinds of arguments today whether the media influence voters and to what degrees. If there is no influence (or little), then the argument about the “defence of the nation” won’t fly. If it is significant, Labour should take a blow. If no change, well, field day for partisan interpretations.

    It would be more important for Labour to spell out the reform of the armed forces, than arguing about Trident.

  15. Coup and Candy
    That’s exactly what I’m getting at. If the public have noticed the latest goings on in the Labour party, I would expect the next poll to be very bad for them. I’m setting myself up for a fall here. Perhaps nukes are so unpopular that Labour will be in the lead next time?

  16. @ Candy

    Partisanship is an enemy of logical, coherent, and relatively fallacy-free arguments.

    Once I got to 10 of the fallacies in your response to AU, I just lost interest.

  17. @ Candy

    “That tone deafness to working class issues like immigration and love of nukes is what will scupper their attempts to win power.”

    I’m not sure I follow your argument here .. what makes these specifically working class issues ?

  18. Couper

    “The public don’t vote for divided parties and the[y] don’t vote for a leader that lacks authority within his own party.”

    And all these Labour MPs know that as well as the rest of us.

    But, like most politicians, they also think that securing their interpretation of the best way to get power / persuade voters to support their vision (delete according to prejudice) is sometimes more important than winning the next electoral round (whatever they say in public!)

    I’m reminded of the huge battle within the SNP over the Wilson/Salmond visions of the best way forward, as well as the Labour Party in the 80s..

    In the short term, the SNP was undoubtedly damaged by the division, but was immensely strengthened by the victory of a more …… (insert description, according to prejudice) leadership team.

    What seems clear, however, is that the Labour Party is more engaged (as every party probably has to be from time to time) in fighting for the “soul of the party” than it is about winning in 2016 or 2020.

  19. @Candy

    Corbyn’s supporters not working class? That must be why he polls so strongly in the North-East and the inner Cities in Northern England as well as London. No working class people there! And does so poorly in Southern England – all working class!

    Oh and of course Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall were all steadfast in chasing working class voters! And all those people in pathetically low paid jobs that elected Corbyn as leader, all middle class – to a man (or woman).

  20. @Candy

    The deadliest insult starting point of the begging the question fallacy against Corbyn and his followers lumping together people for a predetermined purpose, reductionism is “middle class luvvy” (because it’s true) argument from the vacuum.
    I was struck with how middle class all of his followers were starting another begging the question, but also false dichotomy. At least the Blarites had some working class elements (like Alan Milburn, Alan Johnson and Prescott) – Thatcher too had her working class elements like Tebbit.non-sequitur with a good dose of ad populum, also a bit of regression fallacy.
    Corbynism is pure sandal wearing vegetarian lefty-middle class ad hominem. Which explains their hostility to peolple like Danczuk and Mann. non sequitur. The only working class types they like are people from a century ago who wore cloth caps and are safely dead. ad hominem They can’t bear the live ones like Danczuk because they just don’t know their place! ad hominem, non sequitur, false dichotomy.
    That tone deafness to working class issues like immigration and love of nukes is what will scupper their attempts to win power. false dichotomy, non-sequitur, begging the question.

  21. @Candy

    “‘The deadliest insult against Corbyn and his followers is “middle class luvvy””

    And perhaps that’s true. All the same, thank you for the implicit concession of my point that he’s not a pacifist :)

    “I was struck with how middle class all of his followers were. At least the Blarites had some working class elements (like Alan Milburn, Alan Johnson and Prescott) – Thatcher too had her working class elements like Tebbit.”

    What? He doesn’t have any working class support at all?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyns-supporters-are-more-working-class-than-other-candidates-research-finds-10476433.html

    “They can’t bear the live ones like Danczuk because they just don’t know their place!”

    Ah that’s the reason! I thought it must have been because he openly called for a coup and a campaign of subversion against a democratically elected leader (something that would annoy any group of supporters I’d imagine). But this has really shed light on it, it must be because he’s a working class chap in parliament rather than down a mine. I feel so silly for not having seen it before!

    “That tone deafness to working class issues like immigration and love of nukes”

    Do all the working class love nukes? A majority of them? Are you basing this assertion on anything other than the stereotype that working class people are all patriotic flag wavers? I mean I suppose it must be true; after all, as we all know, the working class is just a homogeneous blob.

    As for immigration, yes. God forbid a politician tries and changes, through reasoned argument, the way people see and understand things rather than pander to their percieved prejudices…

    @Laszlo

    The trouble here is that I can’t work which of us is supposed to be trolling whom here ;)

  22. @ Anarchists Unite

    Apologies :-).

    I think yours is better. Mine hid behind some middle class obfuscation (even though I don’t own sandals, eat anything that moves and don’t and edible for humans, drink alcohol, served in an army, and reached the rank of an officer, being the first member of the family to have a university degree (but having ancestry in the nobility from the 17th century), Being a migrant (or immigrant), etc)

  23. Also can anyone explain what exactly is wrong with being a vegetarian?

    @NedLudd

    “Nice to see the comments policy being enforced on here btw”

    Im my mind Anthony just took one look at the board and said ‘ah hell no’ ;)

  24. “Also can anyone explain what exactly is wrong with being a vegetarian?”

    Nothing, as long as you know what you are doing (which is true for meat eaters as well). But it’s a useful adjective (or noun) for making an ad hominem attack.

  25. Anarchists Unite

    “Also can anyone explain what exactly is wrong with being a vegetarian?”

    If plants had sufficient consciousness of their individual worth, they might have a reasonable objection. However, since the genes of species like cereals have continued to replicate so hugely, due to our eating their seeds, they might not care.

    The same, of course, is also true of those organisms like chickens that have been so successful because we eat them – as opposed to Dodo genes, which have disappeared because they were considered inedible. :-)

  26. @OldNat
    “But, like most politicians, they also think that securing their interpretation of the best way to get power / persuade voters to support their vision (delete according to prejudice) is sometimes more important than winning the next electoral round (whatever they say in public!)”

    I think it’s more that Corbyn in particular seeks to challenge a whole range of assumptions that the “middle class” in politics consider sacrosanct, such that they should not even be discussed or debated.

    In fact, I would go further. Many people within the middle class – in England at least – have a very narrow, rigid view of political acceptability. If something does not fit within these parameters it must be regarded as the ravings of a madman. It can never be successful – that’s just impossible – as if it were to prove possible these parameters would be shattered.

  27. RAF

    “Many people within the middle class – in England at least – have a very narrow, rigid view of political acceptability”

    I don’t know of any evidence that “the middle class” have any narrower a view of things than anyone else. Indeed, one would anticipate that it might be the other way around, given the levels of university education in the various “classes”.

  28. @Oldnat

    I find it hard to agree with you. If you look at the political face of middle England people seem to have remarkably similar views on a variety of political issues.

  29. Judging by the agitated response “middle class luvvy” really is the deadliest insult that can be levied against Corbyn! I rest my case :-)

    P.S. The Lab people should bear in mind that Cameron won’t be leading the Conservatives into the next election. It might be someone like Sajid Javid instead…

  30. candy
    ” It might be someone like Sajid Javid instead…”

    you’ve convinced me … might be worth a tenner on Corbyn for PM after all :-)

  31. @Laszlo & OldNat

    Thank you both for that summary of the evils of vegetarianism; I am slightly more informed now :)

    @OldNat

    “Indeed, one would anticipate that it might be the other way around, given the levels of university education in the various “classes.”

    You’d think so, but then Very Serious People are a thing:

    http://crookedtimber.org/2015/07/22/a-brief-theory-of-very-serious-people/

    Of course, this whole ‘working class’, ‘middle class’, ‘upper class’ thing is really just a problem with electing to treat large bodies of diverse people as if they all had a homogeneous set of beliefs – there’s some alignment but its perhaps oft more nuanced than thought (being ‘working class’ does not automatically make one in favour of redistribution, just as being ‘upper class’ doesn’t lead to an immediate horror of progressive taxation).

    @Candy

    “Judging by the agitated response “middle class luvvy” really is the deadliest insult that can be levied against Corbyn! I rest my case :-)”

    And, once again, thank you for your implicit concession of the argument :)

  32. @Candy

    “The Lab people should bear in mind that Cameron won’t be leading the Conservatives into the next election”

    I wish the pollsters and the pundits would – none of them seem to have twigged that the ‘whose better PM Cameron or Corbyn’ question is essentially meaningless for this exact reason…

  33. RAF

    “If you look at the political face of middle England people seem to have remarkably similar views on a variety of political issues.”

    Maybe they do – but to support your thesis – you would need to demonstrate that the same is not also true for other “classes”, and that these views are limited to a particular class.

    Without supporting evidence (which may exist) your point risks being classified along with Candy’s frequent assertions.

    Fortunately, as opposed to her latest offering, you are unlikely to take any questioning of the basis of your position as a demonstration that you were right along! :-)

    Nytol.

  34. It seems fairly straightforward what Labour need to do to win in England again

    Ditch socialism and become a social democratic party
    Ditch the Trade Unions and become a pro-business party
    Get a strong charismatic leader

    It will be interesting to see how this Corbyn adventure pans out. At the moment, I feel sorry for him he is so out of his depth and his shadow cabinet are not helping

  35. @couper

    we already have a conservative party … why would we need two ?

  36. CND contend that ‘Poll after poll shows that a consistent majority of the British population are against nuclear weapons.’

    They list a selection of polls, only some of which are voodoo. Most are more than 5y old but I can’t think of a good reason why support should have increased since then.

    http://cnduk.org/campaigns/no-to-trident/opinion-polls

    I seem to remember that Enoch Powell opposed Nuclear weapons because they were just Military Keynesianism for the US economy.

  37. @Syzygy

    Perhaps @Candy is right.

    Maybe what JC needs to do to win is become like Bert from Mary Poppins, saying things like ‘Cor blimey Gov’ner’ quite a lot to show his working class credentials.

    None of this namby-pamby vegetarian nonsense, no, he needs to start eating lots of eels, pies and chips.

    He maybe needs to wrap himself in a Union Jack, and love the Queen, alongside wanting lots of lovely nukes. Perhaps he could wear a T Shirt depicting the Queen, sat astride a missile like Major Kong in ‘Dr Strangelove’. It could carry the tagline ‘Liz is gonna nuka ya’.

    Easy really.

    ;-)

  38. People don’t dislike vegetarianism, they dislike Vegetarianism – the unfortunate tendency for vegetarians to let you know they are within about five minutes of meeting them and seem to be judging you accordingly.

    I’m a particularly quiet and self-hating vegetarian so I tend to get away with it.

  39. Why does corbyn keep on getting hijacked by the press when he’s on the move? He obviously hates it and immediately looks and sounds like he’s about to cry. Why doesn’t someone fix this?

  40. OLDNAT

    @”What seems clear, however, is that the Labour Party is more engaged (as every party probably has to be from time to time) in fighting for the “soul of the party” than it is about winning in 2016 or 2020.”

    In a nutshell.

    McDonnell’s Conference speech being the classic example.

    What an extraordinary organisation , in which the views of a majority of its fee paying members & its current leader are so unaligned with those of most of its elected representatives.

    How is this sustainable ? How can Shadow Cabinet function? When does endless Debate end, and Collective Policy start?

    Can there be Collective Policy in these circumstances?

  41. Putin is treating the USA , EU & NATO like impotent fools.

    Is a proxy Russia v “The West” war about to start in the wreckage that was Syria?

  42. It’s hard to see a happy future for the Labour Party over the next four years. I watched the news with astonishment yesterday as one shadow minister after another expressed shock and dismay over Corbyn’s comments about nuclear weapons. And that’s his hand-picked Shadow Cabinet, supposedly his closest colleagues in the PLP.

    As for Corbyn’s support base – the most ardent Corbynistas seem to comprise of middle-class Guardian-readers, working class SWP/People’s Front of Judaea types, and idealistic middle-class young people. Then there are people like some of my relatives who are not Corbyn fans but would still vote Labour even if it was led by a dead penguin. Their view is that they have to support the party through this catastrophe so you can rebuild once it comes to its senses again.

    Will that be enough to take Corbyn into No. 10?

    No, not even close.

  43. WATCHIT

    @” idealistic middle-class young people. ”

    I have a few of those in my extended family.

    Its the marches & the banners which attract-a chance for active expression.

    I watch & wait for the mind numbing business of Realpolitik to bore them rigid again.

  44. @OldNat

    RAF
    “If you look at the political face of middle England people seem to have remarkably similar views on a variety of political issues.”
    Maybe they do – but to support your thesis – you would need to demonstrate that the same is not also true for other “classes”, and that these views are limited to a particular class.

    —————-

    I’m not generally into maligning anyone because of class, wealth, economic status or any other socio-economic categorisation, but there does appear to be a distinct disdain for anything approaching change in a whole swathe of middle England. Maybe they’re too comfortable in their own lives and fear anything that could potentially upset this, but the lack of flexibility of thought or dispassionate analysis of change by people who are often professionals and therefore paid to apply such analysis in their daily lives is really something unfathomable.

    When it comes to Corbyn their reaction seems to be of anything he says – rubbish/can’t work/doomed to failure without applying any serious practical analysis to the ideas in question.

    Sure, their are people within every “class” that can be equally dismissive and resistant to change, but there are a lot more of these types within middle England than working class England (to use one example).

  45. @Colin
    “Putin is treating the USA , EU & NATO like impotent fools.”
    Yes. Maybe because the USA, EU and NATO never had a viable strategy for Syria. I say this as one who laments the impetus this move gives to Assad, as it has been estimated than over 90% of deaths in Syria have been caused by the regime. However, Russia’s move was inevitable and heavily signposted for some time.

    Is a proxy Russia v “The West” war about to start in the wreckage that was Syria?”
    I very much doubt it. “The West” will simply hope now that Assad crushes the rebels and any ISIS rebels among them.

  46. Colin

    It is indeed an unsustainable situation, and it probably won’t end well. I still think that reselection/deselection issues could really undermine things.

    But in the meantime, I am rather enjoying everyone in the Labour Party disagreeing so publicly on so many issues, and conducting the debate on the airwaves. Its refreshing.

    There was still quite a lot of coded messages in some of those conference speeches, but by and large, the ‘new politics’ is a breath of fresh air. I think the public will enjoy it for a while at least. Look how the nuclear deterrent has been debated on the board above – haven’t seen the pros and cons better expressed in years.

    Here’s an interesting thought. What happens if Corbyn becomes PM and abandons the bomb, and then the Tories regain power. Could they acquire the bomb again without being guilty of proliferation?

    Couper
    Hireton

    I am of course aware of the different Scottish house-selling system, but I went from the Thompson case to a rant about the system in E & W, without proper explanation.

    Thank you both, for pointing this out in such a pleasant way. The kindness will be reciprocated, I promise.

  47. Was more struck by Maria Eagle’s response. She’s never struck me as right-wing.

  48. MILLIE

    @” Its refreshing.”

    For Labour Party members?-or the UK electorate ?

  49. MILLIE

    @” I still think that reselection/deselection issues could really undermine things.”

    Surely-having accepted that the schism between Members and MPs is “unsustainable”-then you either have to change the members or the MPs .

    Wouldn’t this resolve things rather than “undermine” things ?

  50. @Colin

    If I am understanding Corbyn correctly his pitch seems to be:

    ‘I’ve been elected overwhelmingly the PLP will respect my mandate…’ with an unsaid ‘or else’. So I do think de-selections are likely if the PLP don’t fall into line.

    Corbyn may seem weak and an outsider wrt the PLP and Union leaders but he must have a formidable team around him to have won so convincingly, a team well capable of organising de-selections.

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