There are two new bits of YouGov polling today. First up is the regular Welsh political barometer. The usual caveats apply about it being just one poll, but it shows Labour support perking up in Wales since Jeremy Corbyn’s election – Westminster voting intentions with changes from last month are CON 26%(-2), LAB 42%(+5), LDEM 5%(+1), Plaid 10%(-2), UKIP 16%(+1).

Assembly voting intentions are CON 23%, LAB 39%, LDEM 6%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 13% for the constituencies, CON 24%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 14% for the regional vote. Roger Scully’s commentary is over on the Elections in Wales blog here and has an Assembly seat projection of 29 seats for Labour, 12 for the Tories, 10 Plaid, 8 UKIP and one for the Lib Dems.

The Times also has some YouGov national polling, showing the Leave campaign narrowly ahead in their EU referendum polling – REMAIN 38%, LEAVE 40%. This is the first time YouGov have asked the question using the new referendum question, so some of the shift might be due to that (I discussed here how asking the question as Remain vs Leave seems to produce figures that are better for those who wish to leave than asking it as Yes vs No), but nevertheless it’s the first time since November that YouGov have shown LEAVE ahead. Tables are here.


142 Responses to “Latest YouGov Welsh and EU figures”

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  1. Anthony

    I do like the YG Euroref sample “11171 GB Adults, together with 1,003 members of the Conservative Party and 1,894 members of Labour’s selectorate”

    Are the 2 latter groups not GB?, not adults?, or neither?

    Will we see other tables in the future for this poll?

  2. Oldnat – heh :)

    Separate samples, though obviously a normal samp,e of the GB public will also include such people.

    Plenty more to come…(in fact, some other stuff from it has already come out in Peter’s article for the New Statesman last week).

  3. Methinks next year could be a papering over the cracks year for Labour. Hard to see how they lose power in Wales, they are due things going their way in London and in the context of the year 2015’s been for Scottish Labour anything better than getting beaten by the Tories will be seen as a ‘success’ of sorts. Even if polls are still showing a Tory lead people that want to take on Corbyn won’t have the hard evidence of failure that they need to make any sort of coup attempt a worthwhile endeavour.

    Labour conference is fascinating. They just don’t seem to get that you can’t make any progress by talking to yourselves. I suppose that’s what a conference is but the Tories will use theirs as a platform to make a pitch to the voters. Instead Labour seem to be spending most of their time trying to outdo each other for who can depict the Tories the cruellest and who can condemn the Trade Union Bill in the strongest terms. None of this is likely to make a blind bit of difference to what the general public think.

  4. I posted this on the previous thread but it’s more appropraiate here:
    ………………………
    UKIP vote seems to be holding up well in most polls despite lack of recent good publicity.

    Most UKIP voters that I have encountered here in the English (for Oldnat) Midlands are traditional patriotic white working class. It’s only anecdotal, but I suspect that most UKIP voters in the North and Midlands of England fall into that category. Once upon a time many of them would have been Labour supporters, but it’s hard to see Corbyn winning them back with his lukewarm attitude to defence, the EU and immigration.

    I also find it interesting that UKIP do so much better in Wales than in Scotland. Surely not all Welsh UKIP supporters are expats?

  5. I like the fact that 77% of the Labour selectorate would vote to remain in the EU, but only 76% would do so IF David Cameron recommended it!

  6. It’s probably a stupid question, but could someone tell me what a ‘selectorate’ is?

  7. @Pete B
    Unless I’m much mistaken it’s people eligible to vote for Labour leaders. Distinct from merely ‘people who said they’d vote Lab at GE’.

  8. JACK SHELDON

    Labour conference is fascinating. They just don’t seem to get that you can’t make any progress by talking to yourselves. I suppose that’s what a conference is but the Tories will use theirs as a platform to make a pitch to the voters. Instead Labour seem to be spending most of their time trying to outdo each other for who can depict the Tories the cruellest and who can condemn the Trade Union Bill in the strongest terms. None of this is likely to make a blind bit of difference to what the general public think.

    Would these be the same Tories currently hysterically referring to the Leader of the Opposition as a ‘threat to national security’? I don’t understand how that qualifies as making your pitch to the electorate while Labour attacking Tory policy is merely an exercise in self indulgence.

  9. @Pete B

    Hegemony is a key part of the difference between Scotland and elsewhere, I think. Scots have for decades been fed – first by Labour and then by the SNP – the line that Scotland is a social democrat country and that right wing politicians are evil. If you hear something enough you start to believe it. We know from polling data that if you delve deep enough Scots aren’t especially more left-wing than the English but they think they are and that’s crucially important. Why that hasn’t happened to the same extent in Wales is a difficult question to answer – perhaps, given their traditional dominance, Welsh Labour have never really felt the need to resort to hegemony, but I don’t really know.

    Either way I don’t really see how Labour lose power in Wales unless they bomb completely. Plaid would, presumably, always come to their assistance to keep out a Tory/UKIP administration.

  10. @Funtypippin

    Beyond that initial video/ media round I think the Tory approach has been to try and avoid going too hard for Corbyn. If they spend their conference talking about Labour then I’ll be sure to say that wasn’t a great idea either.

  11. I wonder if the steel crisis is helping Labour in Wales. Osborne’s disastrous betrayal in China appears to have wrecked his chance of becoming PM.

  12. Jack Sheldon
    Thanks for the reply, but until recently Labour had hegemony in Scotland too (at Westminster elections anyway). Perhaps it’s more to do with the relative weakness of Plaid compared to SNP giving an outlet to nationalism? I suppose in the end the ‘why’ doesn’t matter as much as the ‘what’ – i.e. the actual polls/election results.

  13. Wolf
    “Osborne’s disastrous betrayal in China appears to have wrecked his chance of becoming PM.”

    What disastrous betrayal?
    If there was one, what evidence do you have that it appears to have wrecked his chances of becoming PM?

    I’m not keen on him getting the Chinese to build our power stations, but I can’t see it swaying many votes. Has he done something else that i’m not aware of?

  14. @Jack Sheldon

    It’s called trying to shift the agenda, rather than playing to your opponents tune, as Miliband/Balls did for much of the previous parliament. For the first time, an alternative is being put to a public that already yearns for an end to austerity. That alternative has a chance of striking a chord with a public that will have been given much more austerity by the time this parliament is out, by a Conservative party that chose to emphasis spending commitments rather than cuts at the 2015 election.

    I think you’re greatly underestimating the vulnerability of the Conservatives to the charge that austerity is being overdone for political reasons.

  15. We are Welsh not Scottish.

  16. Wolf

    I’m sure steel is a factor – in places like Newport and Port Talbot especially. As far as I can see the current Westminster Government wouldn’t bat an eyelid if there was no primary steel manufacturing capacity left anywhere in UK. One of the Welsh Assembly Governments unsung relative success stories has been on jobs and training. Unemployment is lower here than it would be if we were an English region and most people know why. Guge efforts are made to keep Tata in Wales in difficult times. Getting Ford to commit to Bridgend was a considerable coup. Health and education standards are as good or perhaps slightly better than in socio-economically comparable English regions ( figures that show Wales below the national average in England are unrealistic as we don’t gave a giant affluent area like England) – and all on a Barnett budget far less generous than Scotland’s.

    OK that’s enough Welsh pride for one day …

    Btw I think UKIP will shed votes to JC – much of urban Wales is very Old Labour once you scratch the surface ..

  17. Phil Haines
    There’s little or no real austerity in the UK, as the ex-Greek finance minister recently pointed out. Yes, the government have tightened up a bit on spending, but most people will barley have noticed. Remember old people vote in greater numbers than the young, and anyone over about 50 can remember the three day week and general chaos of the seventies, and so have little sympathy with the anti-austerity hysteria when they can’t really see any.

    DW
    Sorry, in my English arrogance I thought there might be some common ground amongst our Celtic fiefdoms.

    G’night all.

  18. Welsh Borderer

    ” I think UKIP will shed votes to JC – much of urban Wales is very Old Labour once you scratch the surface ..”

    Interesting. Has any work been done on the demographics of UKIP voters in Wales? Are they the same kind of people that research in England has described?

  19. JACK SHELDON

    Beyond that initial video/ media round I think the Tory approach has been to try and avoid going too hard for Corbyn.

    Sajid Javid was at it yesterday and his choice of wording – “the Labour party are a serious risk to our national security, our economic security and to the security of all working people” – implies he was briefed by CCHQ given that the wording is almost identical to that used by Osborne, Gove, Fallon et al over the last couple of weeks.

  20. And David Gauke today.

  21. They certainly don’t seem to appear in the more affluent seats like Cardiff North and Monmouth.

  22. @Pete B

    Your world is indeed a very different one to mine.

  23. Wow “Leave” ahead.

    On polls, if I was asked, well how could I answer which party I would vote for because I don’t know policies yet, especially Labours’. So polls mean a lot less than usual.

  24. @Anthony

    Any chance of a statement or link to past statement on caveats of polling around conference time?

  25. @Pete B

    I suppose Labour had to build hegemony in Scotland from the late 1970s. Before then the Tories had been relatively strong – even ahead on seats as recently as the ’50s – and the SNP had very nearly made a major breakthrough, taking 11 seats in October 1974. Assisted by Mrs. Thatcher’s failure to properly appreciate Scottish demands, and the ability to put the change of government in 1979 at the SNP’s door because of their stance on the vote of no confidence, Labour were able to write the narrative that says that Scotland is naturally more left-wing than the rest of the UK and right-wing politicians are evil. The SNP have achieved much of their success in recent times by exploiting that and turning it against Labour.

    In Wales, on the other hand, there has never been much need to do that. Labour have always been dominant, threatened only by Plaid’s relatively strong performance in the very first Assembly election. As the industrial basis for Labour’s dominance has started to decline that has created an opportunity for the right, who aren’t quite as toxic as they are in Scotland. There is a long way to go until that’s converted into real electoral success, though. The last GE was a very good one for the Tories in the Wales but their three gains (and an unexpected hold in Cardiff North) only took them to 11 seats, still a full 14 behind Labour.

  26. In my view, there are two ways at looking at these post-Corbyn VI polls, and they involve our old friends Mr and Mrs Half-Full and Half-Empty bottles. If you’re a Mr Half-Empty Bottle, then there is only an anaemic to non-existent bounce to be detected and plenty of sub-question responses that suggest Corbyn has got some big problems convincing voters of his electability. So far so good with the anti-Corbyn narrative. Mrs Half-Empty Bottle, however, might look at the polls in a little more counter-intuitively, particularly in the light of how early it is in Corbyn’s leadership. The good money was on Corbyn being an instant and fast acting voter repellent, driving more Labour voters away than those he might attract from elsewhere, maybe even driving them straight into the hands of the new self styled One Nation Tory Party. Rarely has there been a new political leader ushered in on such an antagonistic and hostile press, but, despite that, the initial polls suggest Labour’s VI has crept up a little, with even a 5% “perking up” bounce in Wales.

    Maybe that’s the sensible way of looking at these things, only 3 weeks into Corbyn’s leadership. No great bounce, some negatives, but a public reception far less hostile that many on the right both predicted and hoped for.

    As I’ve said before, I share some misgivings about the ability of a Corbyn/McDonnell ticket to win a General Election, but I don’t think there is anything in these very early polls to suggest that they’re doomed to fail either.

  27. Good morning all from a sunny Maida Vale here in London. Dreading my first commute into work tomorrow because I don’t do public transport that well but more importantly the intense smell of Asian food this time in the morning has put my sinuses into intensive care. Everyone around here must have Vindaloo for their bloody breakfast
    ………..

    “The Times also has some YouGov national polling, showing the Leave campaign narrowly ahead in their EU referendum polling – REMAIN 38%, LEAVE 40%”
    _____

    I’m not surprised because the EU is in a mess and the German car industry has lost all credibility.

  28. Lol Crossbat, Mr Half-empty and Mrs Half-empty? Boy is Corbie up against it if even the more optimistic outlook, is still half-empty…

  29. Peeps increasingly want to leave everything at the moment. Things will be much better once we leave everything there is to leave. What if we run out of things to leave though? Maybe we should join a few more things so we can leave them…

  30. ISAAC

    “On polls, if I was asked, well how could I answer which party I would vote for because I don’t know policies yet, especially Labours’. So polls mean a lot less than usual”
    ________

    People should be aware of the political parties polices because it was only a few months back that we all voted for one of them, however Labour’s polices are all over the place at the moment because they have just elected a new leader.

    I reckon their current VI is nothing more than (public giving them the benefit of the doubt) but when ole Corby’s polices filter onto the headlines and people see what direction Labour are heading then I reckon their current VI will collapse into the mid 20’s.
    […]

  31. It’s possible Allan might be Mr half-empty…

  32. @Crossbat11

    “As I’ve said before, I share some misgivings about the ability of a Corbyn/McDonnell ticket to win a General Election, but I don’t think there is anything in these very early polls to suggest that they’re doomed to fail either”.

    Apart from the fact that his initial leader ratings are considerably lower than even Ed Miliband’s. And VI polls still show a Tory lead that is pretty much unchanged from the general election. And on the fundamentals – leadership, the economy, national security – Corbyn and Labour and way behind. And the fact that it’s the Tories, not Labour, who are on the side of public opinion on things like trade union law, welfare reform and the EU. I would never be silly enough to rule Labour winning in 2020 out, but it is an enormous mountain to climb. Essentially they are relying on the economy blowing up or the Tories doing something utterly stupid.

  33. CARFREW

    “It’s possible Allan might be Mr half-empty”
    ____

    I’m very optimistic and don’t do half empty glasses or half full glasses.

    “If we talk about the glass being half empty or half full, I want to know what does the glass look like from underneath the table?”

  34. Right so I notice people saying that Labour will win votes because of Corbyn off UKIP in Wales. If anything the polls seem to suggest otherwise, unless there is an element of churn. While Old Labour is quite common in Wales these people tend to be similar to Northern voters, patriotic , conservative with a small c and concerned about immigration. This is why Mathew Goodwin predicted a surge in UKIP support in Wales in the general election and was proven correct.
    What many people in the Labour party don’t understand is that most people do not change their minds over tiny policies such as railway and utility nationalisation, hence why the people that voted UKIP did not vote Green in the last election. Corbyn would have to acknowledge concerns about immigration , offer at least hypocritical support to the Monarchy and be more supportive of defence in order to win votes off UKIP, even then many voters for UKIP would not go back to Labour as they’ve completely lost trust in that party.
    There is no question about whether or not UKIP will win seats in the Assembly elections , it’s a question of how many. I think it will be 5 regional list seats(one in each region) with a possibility of up to 5 more depending on how well other parties do and whether Constituency seats change hands.
    It’s also worth noting that there is a visible Plaid/UKIP group who voted UKIP in the General Election and will vote Plaid in the Assembly (as much as PC like to think that their vote base is left wing , in north Wales it is quite right wing at times occasionally based upon anti-English sentiments). The WAG will most likely be a minority Labour / Plaid- Lab coalition government , with UKIP and the Tories heading the main opposition. The Greens will be lucky to get a single seat , and the Liberal Democrats if they hold on to their seat it will be an achievement.

  35. Whilst I think Corbyn has a mountain to climb given the array of forces ranged against him, [snip]. A bit like Maggie Thatcher for the left. Divisive, but could be persuasive to more people than his enemies believe due to their intense dislike and disbelief.

  36. It is a case of wait and see, the Labour party are as guilty of confirmation bias as well , with Corbyn not singing the national anthem many supporters simply assumed that people didn’t care. The point being that many on the left don’t realise that the “Borders are a social construct” university student line doesn’t wash with many of the working class.
    I’m unashamedly right wing, but I can see why people that support Corbyn do. But I doubt that his politics will be significant in picking up the working class , I do think he will mop up the Green vote and what is left of the Social democrat side of the Lib Dems. That would be enough to get a certain amount of the vote. The chances are he will be cost neutral to the Labour party in terms of votes , but not in terms of seats.

  37. @Carfew

    “Lol Crossbat, Mr Half-empty and Mrs Half-empty? Boy is Corbie up against it if even the more optimistic outlook, is still half-empty…”

    I put it down to an unusually early morning post! Maybe it was a Freudian slip and there is, in fact, no grounds for optimism at all.

    In which case the real alternative is between Half-empty and totally empty! As Mohammed Ali used to say; Corbyn has got two chances. Little and none!!

    Lol.

  38. @Allan C

    “I’m very optimistic and don’t do half empty glasses or half full glasses.”

    ———–

    Oh I see, that was you being optimistic about Corbie’s chances was it? The less optimistic version must be really quite sobering…

  39. @Crossbat

    Some days it seems like it’s all Freudian!!

    Re: half-empty and totally empty, funny, I was thinking after your post that you may have stumbled across a new polling scale. Full, half-full, half-empty, empty etc.

  40. @Crossbat11:

    Whether one considers that Labour has crept up in the polls depends on whether one is comparing to the election result or the last pre-election polls.

    Most contributors here have chosen to compare to the election, which may not be the most appropriate comparison, particularly given that most pollsters have only made preliminary changes to their methodology so far (if that).

  41. It appears the this site is currently showing updated comments on tablets/phones but not PCs?

  42. Indeed. It’s boring and repetitive.

  43. This has been updated

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/2/2c/UK_2015-20_election_opinion_polls.png

    There’s probably a million different changes of methodology in there but it’s still fun to track

  44. CARFREW

    I’m trying to be as optimistic for ole Corby as I can. I’ve always said that he will be extremely popular with the core Labour voter which by reckoning is around 25% of the UK electorate (I’m sure some of the resident experts will correct me if I’m wrong with that percentage) but can he carry his party?

    The parliamentary Labour party is the face of the party and almost every interview with a Labour MP has chucked caution to the wind when discussing Corby’s polices and his radical vision for the party.

    There is no portending that almost every elected Labour MP just wished they could wake up and say “Phew what a dreadful dream I had, Corby had won the Labour leadership”

    But it’s not a dream it’s reality Labour have just elected a Caucasian version of kim jong un. Okay I’m not saying he’s a dictator by any account but some of his polices are bordering on self reliance and Marxism–Leninism.

  45. # pretending

  46. As is the comments policy Pete.

  47. So attentive to policy that names have all been sorted into rightists and leftists…

  48. Any peeps following the Conference speech?…

    Rightists or leftists? Half-full or half-empty? For or against storage taxes? Anybody?…

    Doesn’t seem massively alarming, but are any horses frightened?

  49. The Labour “moderate” on Daily Politics, Lance Price, doesn’t seem impressed. Because Corbs didn’t say much about immigration, EU etc…

  50. @Carfrew

    59% of the Sky Pulse Poll say they are more likely to vote for him after watching his address and 53% can imagine him as the next PM.

    I watched the speech and it was great. The conference hall was packed and from their reactions it was obvious they loved the speech.

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