Ipsos MORI have published their September political monitor for the Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%.

MORI have made another methodological change in the light of the polling error at the general election. Previously they had started including how regularly people say they usually vote in the turnout filter, now they have also added additional weighting by newspaper readership. Again, the methodology review is still an ongoing process, and MORI make clear they anticipate making further changes.

The rest of the poll had a series of questions about perceptions of the party leaders and parties.

Jeremy Corbyn’s first satisfaction rating is minus 3 (33% are satisfied with him as leader, 36% dissatisfied). At first glance that isn’t bad – it’s a better net rating than Cameron or the government! In a historical context though it’s not good. New leaders normally get a polling honeymoon, the public give them the benefit of the doubt to begin with and Corbyn’s net rating is the worst MORI have recorded for a new leader of one of the big two parties (the initial ratings for past party leaders were Miliband +19, Brown +16, Cameron +14, Howard +9, IDS 0, Hague -1, Blair +18, Smith +18, Major +15, Kinnock +20, Foot +2)

Looking at the more detailed questions on perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn his strengths and weaknesses compared to David Cameron are very similar to the ones we got used to in Cameron v Miliband match ups: Cameron scores better on things like being a capable leader, good in a crisis, sound judgement; Corbyn scores better on being in touch with ordinary people, having more substance than style and being more honest than most politicians. Asked overall who would make the most capable Prime Minister Cameron wins by 53% to 27%.

Of course, all of Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings need to be seen in the context that he is very new to the job and the public don’t know a whole lot about him beyond the initial negative press. Early perceptions of him may yet change. His figures may get better… or worse.

MORI also asked about perceptions of the Labour and Conservative parties, and here the impact of Corbyn’s victory on how the Labour party itself is seen was very evident. The proportion of people seeing the party as divided is up 33 points to 75%, extreme is up 22 points to 36% and out of date is up 19 points to 55%. Both the Labour party and the Conservative party had a big jump in the proportion of people saying they were “Different to other parties” – I suppose it takes two parties to be different from each other!

Full details of the MORI poll are here


437 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 7, GRN 4”

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  1. @AnthonyWells,
    @below-the-line commentators

    I’m too b****y buy t comment in a meaningful sense (please constrain your disappointment, such emotion is unseemly…:-)), so I’ll restrict myself to saying I hope you all remain well and thank you for the excellent work as always

  2. My comment above was in reply to Couper2802’s 11.58sm post.

  3. CB11

    @”Or was it Cuba or Venezuela? ”

    Having just heard McDonell’s speech-Cuba would be nearer.

    But UK is the real comparison-UK in 74-79.with Tony Benn as Secretary of State for Industry .

    The “Entrepreneurial State” is McDonnell’s description.

    Yes we know what that looks like-ICL, British Leyland, NVT, UCS-and all the other products of Benn’s “Entrepreneurial State”

    Wonder what they will call the Industrial Re-organisation Corporation,next time round?

  4. They grow coffee in Cuba…

  5. @ Colin

    The entrepreneurial state comes from Mazzucato. I may not agree with her on it, but it has actually nothing to do with the 1970s state owned industries in the UK.

  6. @ Carfrew

    In my reading (again, not universally accepted) it is a pipe producing coffee at between 18-22 bar pressure.mit would be nice and creamy.

  7. CARFREW

    According to the FAO, the total number of hectares where green coffee is harvested in Cuba has fallen from 170,000 in 1961 to 26,935 in 2011.

    Behold our future :-)

    http://www.teaandcoffee.net/0901/special.htm

  8. LASZLO

    Same principle-politicians picking winners.

  9. Purely from a polling aspect (irrespective whether I agree or disagree, if it is right or not):

    McDonnell, whether by instinct or analysis recognised that in the prevailing narrative Labour has no chance. The last two days has been about redefining, or rather creating a new narrative, and hence creating a paradigm problem: not making the choice between benefit, wage or cuts, but between different philosophies.

    Again, by design or accident there are corridors between the two, so the transition from one to another for the voters (if they want to make the transition) is eased. There are also signs of an emergent vocabulary.

    There is plenty of time, so the narrative is the primary issue, so that they could talk in the language of the voters, while being able to dismiss the conservative language, and forcing the debate to their own terrain.

    Probably, if they survive, at around 2017 they will start to translate the paradigm to practical steps (if it is feasible). They talk not only about concrete policies, but also about institutional changes (which would be a turn off for the electorate without controlling the narrative).

    They will need a lot of organisation, engagement, conversations. They will have to keep the membership active. The new leaders have the motivation, the questions are the capabilities and feasibility.

    I really think it will need purges (Meacher called for Mandelson’s expulsion – it is too early politically, but …).

    The whole thing can fail, but if they are after winning the election, they are doing the only feasible thing (or dissolving the party and joining another one).

  10. Looking at a picture of the Labour Party conference today, I was disappointed by the lack of diversity, the people alongside the shadow Chancellor were all old, or certainly not young, and white. Corbyn looked old and knackered, perhaps he’ll have a makeover if he’s still around in 2020, mind you, after 3 wives and Dianne Abbott, it’s no wonder he looks like Worzel Gummidge. :-)

  11. @laszlo

    We need to watch how those Tory voters in marginal constituencies react to Labour’s new message. It’s vital for Labour that if they get fed up with the Conservatives they could see themselves voting for Labour. It’s all about the type of support they’re able to win. In this way the headline VI hides a lot of information, we saw it in the 2015 election where Labour improved VI by piling up votes in safe seats.

    Perhaps the plan is to not worry about those people yet, and focus on Scotland/Wales/London regional elections. Do well in those, bank the resultant good media exposure and credibility, then focus on those 2015 Tory voters which are a necessity if Labour is going to improve their position.

  12. I have yet to have seen a credible and convincing argument as to why labour can’t win without some of the 38% of Tory voters, when that leaves a pool of 62% of voters (and 76% of the electorate) to fish from…
    Yes, I know the Fabian lot did a ‘study’ but I found the figures completely unconvincing.

  13. OMNISHAMBLES

    No matter what Labour do or say (and no matter who leads them) until something goes badly wrong with the economy they are not going to get a hearing from the floating voters. This is because they do not understand political arguments, nor have strong political beliefs. If they did, they would not be floating voters. The Tories had the same problem from 1997-2005.

    Fortunately for democracy, economies tend to go badly wrong on a fairly regular basis. Thanks to McDonnell (who I underestimated), if and when the economy goes wrong, Labour will have room to put forward a coherent alternative that is not squished by Ed Balls.

  14. @joe

    1. Because Labour need to win seats, and this means taking votes from the Conservatives and the SNP, but mostly from the Conservatives if Labour want to be in power. Winning votes from other parties is just making safe seats safer.

    2. Because non-voters share similar values to voters (see the report below), the people who gave Tories a majority. The difference being that non-voters don’t vote.

    If you don’t like the Fabians here’s another report on the non-voter issue:

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/08/does-higher-turnout-really-help-labour.html/

  15. Arithmetically, of course it’s possible for Labour to win without taking a lot of Tory votes. The Tory vote, even an electorally winning one, now takes a much lower percentage of the electorate than it once did and less than a quarter of the electorate voted Tory last May. It’s possible for the Tory vote to splinter in non-Labour directions too, thereby benefiting Labour indirectly rather than directly. In that sense, Labour doesn’t need loads of existing Tories to switch to them in order to win in 2020. There’s more than enough voters and non-voters residing elsewhere that could form the basis of a Labour victory.

    That said, it sure would help if a lot of Tories did switch to Labour!

    :-)

  16. @Omnishambles, that ‘making safe seats safer’ argument would previously have been applied to much of Scotland & Wales. It shouldn’t be taken for granted. In largest party terms every vote taken from cons is worth twice as much, but I’m with Joe….how many marginals was the UKIP vote much larger than the majority? (that’d be a serious question if anyone has that kinda data on hand, I know it was quite a few, but an exact number’d be interesting)

  17. An update on my earlier post on Catalonia.

    48% Catalonia is a nation, Yes to independence, no need for referendum
    9% Catalonia is a nation, neutral on independence, Yes to agreed referendum
    15% Catalonia is a nation, No to independence, Yes to agreed referendum
    26% Catalonia is not a nation, No to independence, No to agreed referendum (Spanish Government’s position)

  18. Going by the Guardians* preGE list of key battlegrounds, there were 12 listed Lab vs Con battles, of the 5 Lab ended up losing, UKIP vote was larger than the majority….I strongly suspect that, in 2011, the comments of this site would’ve had them all down as easy lab holds/gains due to collapse of lib-dems. (excluding those who thought LD would recover).

    Pudsey, Hastings & Rye, Cannock Chase, Nuneaton, Bolton West.

  19. @Couper

    Catalan nationalists would lose a referendum. In a de facto sense they have just lost a referendum. They got fewer seats than 3 years ago and in between they lost an advisory referendum.

    What the nationalists have to answer is why they keep pressing incessantly for independence when Catalunya does not want it.

    It’s an entirely separate question as to whether Catalunya should have their Statute of autonomy amended, so that they can hold a referendum at some future point in time. This would require a change to that (approved by referendum in Catalunya) and also Spanish federal law (also probably requiring a referendum – nationally). You can see the problem.

    Personally, i don’t believe you can hold any state against its will. If there were genuinely a massive groundswell of support for Catalan independence it would happen, regardless of legal restraints an restrictions – a way would be found. But there isn’t.

  20. They drink coffee in Catalanland. They have their own recipe called Cremat, apparently…

  21. Omnishambles – the number of seats where the combined labour and green vote was higher than con alone would be enough to get the cons out of government.

  22. The number of 2015 Green voters who were former Labour voters was actually not that great.

    I know some Greens have gone back to Labour, but I reckon that amounts to about 1-2% since the GE. There really aren’t that many more who will switch in my view, unless Labour adopts something far more radical in environmental policy and perhap electoral reform.

    I think some newer Greens might even migrate back to the Lib Dems. It is fanciful to imagine that Green voters are just Labour voters waiting to go when the policy is right.

  23. @RAF

    That is incorrect the Catalonians held a referendum November 2014 which resulted in a 80% Yes vote, of course being advisory Spain argued that the No voters didn’t turn out. But, the result yesterday suggests a Yes win in an agreed referendum. I think Catalonia is on a similar inevitable path to independence as Scotland the question is who will get there first.

  24. Anthony

    I know some English peeps are peeved by our extraordinary victory at Twickenham on Saturday ;-) but can we please have our own thread on the equally surprising (to some) ITV/YG poll showing a significant (37% to 42%) increase in Labour support since Jeremy’s election ? I see one or two posters have mentioned this today. (Marc – most Welsh voters live in urban not rural areas !).
    It is the first evidence anywhere in UK that JC is getting at least a honeymoon bonus from his internal Labour landslide. Rather more important to us than Catalonia I think …

  25. Marc Kersten

    “If Labour wins an overall majority in Wales next year along with the London mayorship, the headlines might change a lot reg. Corbyn.”

    They might, but the current Welsh Political Barometer doesn’t suggest that for the Senedd.

    UKIP likely (according to Scully) to go to 7/8 and replace the LDs as the 4th party. UKIP’s gains are at the expense of LD (4), Con (1/2), Lab & Plaid (1 each) – leaving Lab as a minority administration (unless they want to try to form a coalition).

  26. Welsh Borderer

    Thanks for the link.

  27. Something seems to have gone wrong with the site (I’ve not changed anything at this end). When I load it, it says there are 427 comments on the latest thread, but when I click on the comments, a page loads that says there are 388, and the last one was from Coup at 11:58 today. It seems to be the last post on page 8 of the comments.

    I don’t know if this message will get through (and I won’t be able to see it anyway), but could AW have a look and see what the problem is? Ta.

  28. Whoops! Now I have posted I’m seeing all the others too. Emergency over. Stand down. Sorry about that.

  29. @Welsh Borderer

    I’ve been tinkering with the post-election poll data. I am very wary and cautious based a small number of polls, and methodology changing too. However…..

    Versus their GE vote share, I think that the Conservatives may have put on about 2%, Labour might be up about 1.5%, UKIP about same, Lib Dems down about 1% and the Greens down a little.

    Early doors etc, I know, and this Parliament could be very chaotic. I have absolutely no idea how things will look in a month, never mind five years away.

    As regards to the ITV poll, it is just one, so it may be something or nothing.

  30. Correct italics this time….

    @Welsh Borderer

    I’ve been tinkering with the post-election poll data. I am very wary and cautious based a small number of polls, and methodology changing too. However…..

    Versus their GE vote share, I think that the Conservatives may have put on about 2%, Labour might be up about 1.5%, UKIP about same, Lib Dems down about 1% and the Greens down a little.

    Early doors etc, I know, and this Parliament could be very chaotic. I have absolutely no idea how things will look in a month, never mind five years away.

    As regards to the ITV poll, it is just one, so it may be something or nothing. Such things are revealed in time.

  31. Catmanjeff,

    Good points, but of course ex-Lib Dem voters are just Labour voters waiting to go back to Labour when the time is right. Some of them have been waiting since the 1950s to do so, and even more surprisingly, some of those ready to go back to Labour have never voted Labour.

  32. @Bill Patrick

    :-)

  33. Pete B – normally means the caching is doing something odd. I’ve cleared out the cache just in case.

  34. RAF

    “What the nationalists have to answer is why they keep pressing incessantly for independence when Catalunya does not want it. ”

    Presumably, because they believe it is the best arrangement for Caralunya. :-)

    That more and more people are sympathetic to the idea, is shown by the number of seats held by Independistas in the Catalan Parliament –
    1992: 11
    1995: 13
    1999: 12
    2003: 23
    2005: 21
    2010: 25
    2012: 24
    2015: 72

  35. AW – thanks
    ————————————
    UKIP vote seems to be holding up well in most polls despite lack of recent good publicity.

    Most UKIP voters that I have encountered here in the English (for Oldnat) Midlands are traditional patriotic white working class. It’s only anecdotal, but I suspect that most UKIP voters in the North and Midlands of England fall into that category. Once upon a time many of them would have been Labour supporters, but it’s hard to see Corbyn winning them back with his lukewarm attitude to defence, the EU and immigration.

    I also find it interesting that UKIP do so much better in Wales than in Scotland. Surely not all Welsh UKIP supporters are expats?

  36. LASZLO
    “an emergent vocabulary.”

    Not least in McDonnell’s careful definition of non-violent extra-parliamentary action. If this is seen as a response to a sub-parliamentary use of the HOC in an attack on organised labour (as I think it is, in a Labour response to the Tory use of parliament to push through the basically unfair and undemocratic Trades Union Bill) we may see the meaning of opposition and of the labour movement revived and redefined during the next four and a half years.

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