Ipsos MORI have published their September political monitor for the Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%.

MORI have made another methodological change in the light of the polling error at the general election. Previously they had started including how regularly people say they usually vote in the turnout filter, now they have also added additional weighting by newspaper readership. Again, the methodology review is still an ongoing process, and MORI make clear they anticipate making further changes.

The rest of the poll had a series of questions about perceptions of the party leaders and parties.

Jeremy Corbyn’s first satisfaction rating is minus 3 (33% are satisfied with him as leader, 36% dissatisfied). At first glance that isn’t bad – it’s a better net rating than Cameron or the government! In a historical context though it’s not good. New leaders normally get a polling honeymoon, the public give them the benefit of the doubt to begin with and Corbyn’s net rating is the worst MORI have recorded for a new leader of one of the big two parties (the initial ratings for past party leaders were Miliband +19, Brown +16, Cameron +14, Howard +9, IDS 0, Hague -1, Blair +18, Smith +18, Major +15, Kinnock +20, Foot +2)

Looking at the more detailed questions on perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn his strengths and weaknesses compared to David Cameron are very similar to the ones we got used to in Cameron v Miliband match ups: Cameron scores better on things like being a capable leader, good in a crisis, sound judgement; Corbyn scores better on being in touch with ordinary people, having more substance than style and being more honest than most politicians. Asked overall who would make the most capable Prime Minister Cameron wins by 53% to 27%.

Of course, all of Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings need to be seen in the context that he is very new to the job and the public don’t know a whole lot about him beyond the initial negative press. Early perceptions of him may yet change. His figures may get better… or worse.

MORI also asked about perceptions of the Labour and Conservative parties, and here the impact of Corbyn’s victory on how the Labour party itself is seen was very evident. The proportion of people seeing the party as divided is up 33 points to 75%, extreme is up 22 points to 36% and out of date is up 19 points to 55%. Both the Labour party and the Conservative party had a big jump in the proportion of people saying they were “Different to other parties” – I suppose it takes two parties to be different from each other!

Full details of the MORI poll are here


437 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 7, GRN 4”

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  1. @ Couper 2802

    The Trident renewal vote is going to happen & it’s going to pass whether Labour are for it or against it. The conference vote needs to be about what a future Labour government would do i.e. what will be Labour’s 2020 manifesto position.

  2. I might have underestimate McDonnell as Shadow Chancellor. The list of economic advisers he and Corbyn have recruited is seriously impressive.

  3. Amber

    :-) You are funny!

  4. @ Old Nat

    You are funny!

    Thank you. I have a question for you. Can you tell me what happens if a witch plants rowan trees in her own garden?

  5. Intriguing multi-national poll by YG on EU.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/09/27/european-refugee-crisis/

    Numbers for GB: Ger : Fra : Den : Swe : Fin : Nor

    If Referendum, Remain/Leave? (Presumably not what they asked the Norwegians!)

    Remain 38% : 54% : 42% : 53% :45% : 42% :15%
    Leave 41% : 28% : 32% : 32% :34% : 37% :68%

    On the different responses to the terms used to describe those moving to Europe (though we can’t be sure that the terminologies in different languages are actually equivalent)

    Wanting more of …

    Refugees -25% : -57% : -45% : -5% : -26% : -45% :-2%
    Immigrants -32% : -52% : -47% : -4% : -15% : -50% :-26%
    Migrants -35% : -55% : -37% : -9% : -76% : -45% :–18%
    People fearing terror & persecution -18% : -43% : -21% : -3% : -7% : -31% : 3%

  6. Amber

    Only those who believe in the value of flourishing surrogate willies in the forms of rowan trees or Trident missiles could answer your question.

    I can only point out that my rowan tree deprived neighbour has suffered no witch infestation either. Strangely enough, not one of my neighbouring countries that neither have nor host WMD have been attacked either.

    Logic suggests, therefore that belief in the deterrent effects of rowan trees or WMDs belong in that long history of human self-deception which the Establishment happily employs to ensure its comfortable existence.

    For those that believe in either, I have a set of genuine Papal signed Indulgences which I have obtained at great personal cost. However, cutting my own throat, I can offer them at a reduced rate to those on UKPR to reduce the time that they need to spend in Purgatory.

    (Buy a Glen Douglas cave at the same time to receive an additional discount!)

  7. @ Old Nat

    Given a binary choice between weapons that aren’t used and ones which are, I’d chose the ones which aren’t used.

  8. Good news from Spain, exit polls showing pro-independence parties have won in Catalonia, ( Cataluna ) . Barcelona out of La liga and Euro Champions league.
    I’m still recovering from last night’s drama at Twickers, I was a guest at the game and drowned sorrows with friends, until we were asked to leave the hospitality area in view of its licence restrictions, unfazed we moved to a pal’s house nearby, I returned home courtesy of Uber at 07-15 today. :-)

  9. Amber

    I recommend you purchase huge numbers of my genetically modified hedgehogs. A single stroke of a spine reduces the enemy to hysterical laughter, and thus easily overcome.

    Not a weapon ever likely to be used, so it fits your requirements precisely!

    Can I add a million or so to your order for Papal indulgences and several glen Douglas caves/

  10. Ken

    I’m impressed that you were so generous as to spend all that time celebrating the Welsh victory.

    Though, to be fair, the English were almost as good.

    Some team, somewhere, must have hoped that alone among the groups, they would have secured 2 wins, 2 bonus points and be sitting atop the world with 10 points.

    Any such dreamers, of course, would be brought crashing to earth in the next game.

  11. @ Anarchists Unite

    Having so many words about the Soviet Union, you may appreciate an almost hundred years old song. Apparently it is authentic – an anarchist song from probably about mid 1920s. I can’t type in Russian, but it’s easy to follow. The key words to help: mi: we, ne: not. In second line: only, in fourth: we were rounded up, in fifth: sent to Siberia, last line: because.

    In Russian you don’t put out the predicate if you don’t have to. In line four and five you have reflexive verbs, clearly stating the disagreement.

    Mi ne sovietski
    Mi tolyka Ruski
    Mi Peterbourski anarchists
    Nam sabrlalis
    Sibir paslalis
    Patamu shto mi ne communists

  12. @Amber Star

    I was actually hoping that some of the Tories would think ‘it’s too much money’ and vote against. But having seen parliament at work I think you’re probably right the Tories will all vote ‘For’ regardless of the arguments. Still there was a very slim chance.

  13. @Old Nat

    When you have convinced me that my ‘enemies’ consider your genetically modified hedgehogs to be:
    1. something special; and
    2. they are willing to spend large sums of money on developing their own modified hedgehogs; but
    3. believe yours to be state of the art modified hedgehogs which they’d love to be allowed to buy, if only you’d sell to them…
    we can talk about me actually purchasing some of your modified hedgehogs. I don’t actually care whether they work or not, so long as you can convince me that my enemies believe they do.

    Hence my point about witches planting rowan trees in their own gardens to keep themselves safe from other, potentially hostile, witches. If they do, then it shows that witches themselves believe that rowan trees provide protection so it’s probably worth having them as a witch deterrent!

  14. @ Couper 2802

    I’m against nuclear weapons. But I am (currently) convinced that the first step is non-proliferation of weapons which are used. It’s those weapons which cause conflict & make people believe that the world is dangerous & therefore ‘ultimate’ deterrents are needed for protection.

  15. OLDNAT……..’ A perfect 10 ‘ Song released by…..’ The Beautiful South ‘ in 1998. We’ll let you use the term, I can’t see us needing it, we have to overcome the Wallabies. :-)

  16. Amber

    That’s a tough demand!

    I’ll follow through with the justification for paying me squillions for my GM hedgehogs when you demonstrate that any country in the world gives a bugger about the UK (or France) having a submarine at sea that can devastate half the planet – if they can find half a planet that the US, Russians, Chinese (or whoever) hasn’t already devastated.

    I suppose someone might want to attack the UK (but not the USA) and the USA are going to have concentrated their entire resources on destroying wind farm threats to US owned golf courses?

    Ah! You’re anticipating a President Trump and that David Cameron/Jeremy Corbyn will want to destroy the world to save the Menie Estate, or that President Trump will destroy the Menie Estate Golf course in order to save it.

    (My offer of discounted Papal Indulgences remains open for a limited period).

  17. Interesting list of names to advise McDonnell on economics. Of course, all have their own flaws, but one venomous tooth of the critiques was removed.

    More importantly, their doctoral and masters students offer a huge research base.

    Extremely smart move. We will see.

  18. ON
    I’m not sure what the difference between an immigrant and a migrant is, or a refugee and one fearing terror and persecution, but it’s notable that every single country is opposed to all of those categories, and the Germans much more strongly than GB, despite what Merkel said. Assuming I’ve understood your post properly.
    ——————————————————
    On Corbyn: I understand his wanting to set policy by democratic process, but what happens if the Labour members vote for Trident for instance? Does he vote against his own party? It would seem an untenable position for a leader to hold. And yet if he votes with his party, won’t he tarnish his reputation for being a man of principle?

  19. Lazlo

    Also interesting that Mazzucato and Stiglitz also serve on the Scottish Government’s Council of Economic Advisers.

  20. @Amber Star

    Isn’t Trident renewal proliferation, in fact I think it’s against the non-proliferation treaty.

  21. Pete B

    That seems to be the conclusions of the respondents in the YG poll of 7 countries.

    I may be wrong, but I had understood that “refugee” and people fleeing “terror & persecution” were more or less the same thing.

    I’m presuming that the purpose of those YG questions was to find out if the language used in media reports made a difference to people’s attitudes, though we need Anthony to explain further.

  22. @ OldNat

    I knew that about Stiglitz. A bit of a surprise about Mazzucato, as I haven’t seen any of her ideas in any policy papers (but I don’t follow it closely, so it could be me), but very logical (family business, entrepreneurship and alike).

  23. “907 of Catalonia’s 942 municipalities voted yes today – 906 for JuntsPelSi and one for cupnacional with 29 for Citizens and 6 for PSC”

    I haven’t seen the overall percentages, though I gather turnout was 80% plus.

  24. @ Couper 2802

    Isn’t Trident renewal proliferation, in fact I think it’s against the non-proliferation treaty.

    No, it isn’t against the NPT. The USA & the UK have the NPT governing bodies’ permission to proceed with a non-proliferation strategy which includes the UK’s Trident renewal.

  25. Anyway, a few thousand Scottish jobs lost on the altar of Corbmaniacian theory are as nothing in the grand strategy of the new Messiah. :-)

  26. Ken

    How did you keep your job? Less than 1800 now equals “a few thousand” – somewhat less than your previous faith in the GMB’s “40,000 plus”.

    Sadly, the inability of bankers to understand any numbers other than their bonuses, and their willingness to lie, cheat and distort numbers may explain your job retention skills.

  27. OoOLDNAT…….Blimey, I’ve hit a Scottish nerve, all you have to do is go to ..gmb.org.uk/newsroom/support-scottish-defence-jobs, and put ’em right. Incidentally, a few years ago, on here, I put my point of view on the causes of the banking crash, it wasn’t me gov’. :-)

  28. Not bothered about nuclear or not, but let’s have the deterrent within 50 miles of London to focus the minds of those who control them.

  29. @ Ken

    Anyway, a few thousand Scottish jobs lost on the altar of Corbmaniacian theory are as nothing in the grand strategy of the new Messiah.

    That’s not true. JC has said he will address the challenge of proposing an economic alternative to the UK being a nuclear power with weapons manufacturing capability.

    I am looking forward to reading the report when it becomes available. If the proposed strategy includes the UK selling duff mortgages to Donald Trump, investing in genetically modified hedgehog technology or selling rowan trees to countries which continue to fear witches, I shall know that Old Nat has been involved in developing the strategy.

    If it’s actually a credible alternative, I’ll know that JC has passed up the opportunity of working with the SNP & the financial sector on this; & has, instead, utilised some genuine economic expertise. ;-)

  30. Results of the Catalan referendum (if seen in those terms, which the Spanish would dispute)

    76% turnout
    Yes 48.62%
    Federalists 11,.2%
    NO 39.68%

    However, a broad geographical support for pro-indy parties and a significant majority in the Parliament will make politics there interesting.

  31. @OldNat

    The result was ultimately disappointing for Junts pel Sí and the CUP. The reality is if you look at the parties that comprise JxSí and CUP, they actually won fewer seats than in 2012, and only achieved 47.5% of the popular vote. If this was (as JxSÍ claimed) a de facto independence referendum, the pro independence parties lost.

    In fact the JxSí parties specifically, Convergencia and ERC went down from 71 seats to 62, a loss of 9. It was the other prop independence party, running on a separate ticket (CUP) whose sear numbers increased (from 3 to 10, a gain of 7). Leaving prop independence parties down 2 seats overall.

    This is quite clearly not a mandate for Independence. JxSí would do better to listen to the PSC and the Podemos/Greens socialist left and push for a more consensual and less rigid constitutional framework for change.

  32. The thing about nuclear weapons, of course, is that any scenario where we would use them (i.e. a retaliatory strike) it makes no difference to the outcome whether or not we have them (the country is obliterated).

    The fact is the weapons are not about deterrence they’re about revenge (if we go down you are as well). But anyone mad enough to use them, would be mad enough to use them against someone who already has them. So again it makes near as no difference.

    @Laszlo

    “Having so many words about the Soviet Union, you may appreciate an almost hundred years old song”

    Interesting piece; I’m terrible with languages but I got the gist of it, thanks for the translation help :)

    I can’t quite tell, is the last line meant to be ironic?

  33. OLDNAT…….Now it’s you needing to throttle back on the amber nectar, your second paragraph explains a great deal about your judgment, I take it you describe your bank manager and his/her staff in your rant. :-)

  34. @OldNat

    I don’t understand your description of “federalist”, Spain is a federal country! In fact the Autonomous Communities already have huge amounts of local powers.

    Even the PPC and Ciudadanos believe in a federal Spain.

  35. AMBER STAR……How refreshing, however, beware, ‘ genuine financial expertise ‘ apparently it’s a moveable feast. :-)

  36. Amber

    “JC has said he will address the challenge of proposing an economic alternative to the UK being a nuclear power with weapons manufacturing capability.”

    Actually that doesn’t seem too hard a challenge.

    Although the TU bosses seem to see WMD as a great job creation/retention scheme, they clearly haven’t calculated the job per pound involved, and how many jobs could result from spending the cash more sensibly.

    If Corbyn can come up with any of the obvious alternatives, and in time to persuade Lab MPs and the Union leaders, before the UK commits itself to the insanity of renewing Trident, then I’ll be delighted.

    I’ll even consign my money-making schemes to the bin – if voters seem wise enough to resist such blandishments, which are so close to their existing enthusiasm to chuck their cash into the WMD renewal scheme.

    On the other hand, I might just keep the ideas in reserve for another opportunity. Donald Trump is doing well in the USA and that’s a huge market of really credulous, unthinking voters!

  37. ANARCHISTS UNITE….With respect, America used nuclear weapons to finish the war in the Pacific, they weren’t obliterated. The deterrent works against threats from non-nuclear sources.

  38. Ken

    Oh! for the days when I had a bank manager, and not an apparatchik who knows less than I do, and insists on showing me inane videos about what having an overdraft entails!

    Patronising incompetent bastards.

    I trust that answers your query?

  39. OLDNAT……Perhaps you should consider anger management, it works for me. :-)

  40. I blame Gordon Broon. :-)

  41. @ Anarchists Unite

    Yes, it is a bitter irony. In music (I tried to find it on YouTube but it’s not there) it is a tonic accent at the end which underlines it.

    Basically, once Kronstadt was over, anarchists in Russia moved to back to a narodnik position, but also a nationalist one. It was a rather popular movement, although confused with the SR (Kolontai was occasionally very close to the SRs, then to the Bolsheviks). The Trotskyist tried to gain their support, but they miserably failed. Eventually their leaders were exiled to Siberia. I didn’t check what happened to them. There is a book in the attic that lists them.

    The irony, probably understandable at the time was the following: the Soviets were the main decision making bodies and they were very democratic in the sense of fighting through policies. The Bolsheviks gained majority in them by adopting the SR land policy in November 1917. By about 1920 the anti-communist slogan was “Soviets without Bolsheviks”. This was defeated in 1921, so anarchists withdrew, but as they offered an alternative (false in my view, but it’s not important), the decision was made to eliminate them (especially as some of the leaders were a bit too close to the leftwing SRs) as a political force. So, the only accusation against them was that they were not communists, while espousing communist ideas.

    Anyway, here is the song:

    We are not Soviet supporters
    We are simply Russians
    We are the anarchists of St Petersburg
    We were rounded up
    And sent to Siberia
    Just because we aren’t communists.

  42. @Ken

    This is true (even if describing Japan as a threat to America at that stage in the war is a bit of a stretch), but it doesn’t change the logic of the argument.

    The world is different now, lots of people have the weapons and nobody would ever tolerate a regime that would actually use them. So again its pointless. We’re not going to use them against anyone, because all the people we’d fight we’re militarily superior to and don’t need to use the weapons against. Those that we’re not militarily superior to have more nukes than us, so we wouldn’t be fighting them anyway. For Britain, at least, it doesn’t make any sense to have them.

    After all, who exactly is supposed to be the threat that’s going to be invading us? The French? ;)

  43. RAF

    In a federal system, each level of government has freedom to levy its own taxes to support its own enshrined responsibilities. While that may apply to Navarre and Euskadi, it doesn’t operate in Catalunya, where they have limited independent taxation, and rely on some of the revenues they supply to the Spanish Exchequer being returned to them.

    As I understand. he Catalan Federalists want a separation of Spanish and Catalan taxes and spending – but without a major change in the responsibilities of the Catalan Parliament.

  44. @ Ken

    The nuclear bombs didn’t finish the war in the Pacific. It was the entry of the Soviet Union that in ten days destroyed the entire Imperial Army (OK, it was not that hot by then).

  45. ANARCHISTS UNITE…..Predicting the future is a dangerous business, and history shows us that the world is a volatile place, Europe is going through a difficult time, who knows what could happen, the madmen are out there. ;-)

  46. Ken

    I manage my anger rather well. Though thanks for your advice. :-)

  47. In boxing parlance, we have a puncher’s chance, you are treated differently if you possess a knockout punch. I can foresee a time when, in the interest of the Country, a pre-emptive nuclear strike could be necessary, I obviously can’t see the circumstances, but as Mike Tyson commented, ” they’ve all got a plan, ’til I knock ’em out ” :-)

  48. OLDNAT……There you are, free advice, we’re not all bottom line obsessed freaks after all. :-)

  49. @Laszlo

    I thought it was. That would make sense. It’s quite an intriguing piece of history (part of the long history of internecine warfare on the left as well). I knew that the Bolsheviks moved to get rid of the anarchists fairly quickly, once the civil war was over, though your time frame suggests during. This is a period of history I need to look into more.

    The song does sound better in the Russian, but I can make more sense of it in the English that you’ve provided (for which my thanks).

    I’m not sure we need to look up what happened to them in Siberia to get the general gist though ;)

    @Ken

    “the madmen are out there.”

    They are indeed, and they’re only one successful swipe away from having an arsenal of nuclear warheads at their disposal.

    With that comforting thought in mind I’m sure we’ll all sleep easier tonight ;)

  50. In the meantime, there were elections in Upper Austria, and the Freedom Party came in second. Heavy losses for both the Volks Party and the SocialDemocrats (even more so).

    Won’t be easy in (continental) Europe.

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