Ipsos MORI have published their September political monitor for the Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%.

MORI have made another methodological change in the light of the polling error at the general election. Previously they had started including how regularly people say they usually vote in the turnout filter, now they have also added additional weighting by newspaper readership. Again, the methodology review is still an ongoing process, and MORI make clear they anticipate making further changes.

The rest of the poll had a series of questions about perceptions of the party leaders and parties.

Jeremy Corbyn’s first satisfaction rating is minus 3 (33% are satisfied with him as leader, 36% dissatisfied). At first glance that isn’t bad – it’s a better net rating than Cameron or the government! In a historical context though it’s not good. New leaders normally get a polling honeymoon, the public give them the benefit of the doubt to begin with and Corbyn’s net rating is the worst MORI have recorded for a new leader of one of the big two parties (the initial ratings for past party leaders were Miliband +19, Brown +16, Cameron +14, Howard +9, IDS 0, Hague -1, Blair +18, Smith +18, Major +15, Kinnock +20, Foot +2)

Looking at the more detailed questions on perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn his strengths and weaknesses compared to David Cameron are very similar to the ones we got used to in Cameron v Miliband match ups: Cameron scores better on things like being a capable leader, good in a crisis, sound judgement; Corbyn scores better on being in touch with ordinary people, having more substance than style and being more honest than most politicians. Asked overall who would make the most capable Prime Minister Cameron wins by 53% to 27%.

Of course, all of Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings need to be seen in the context that he is very new to the job and the public don’t know a whole lot about him beyond the initial negative press. Early perceptions of him may yet change. His figures may get better… or worse.

MORI also asked about perceptions of the Labour and Conservative parties, and here the impact of Corbyn’s victory on how the Labour party itself is seen was very evident. The proportion of people seeing the party as divided is up 33 points to 75%, extreme is up 22 points to 36% and out of date is up 19 points to 55%. Both the Labour party and the Conservative party had a big jump in the proportion of people saying they were “Different to other parties” – I suppose it takes two parties to be different from each other!

Full details of the MORI poll are here


437 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 7, GRN 4”

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  1. @Rivers10

    Corbyn will fail I have no doubt about it at all. When I say fail I mean Labour will not win the 2020 election with Corbyn as leader. It is you that is fooling yourself if you believe that people are predicting gloom and Tories are laughing at Corbyn because they are scared.

    The same thing happened when Jim Murphy was elected LiS leader all the Yes supporters and SNP were incredulous and predicted doom, we were told ‘we were scared’, no we weren’t, sometimes when people are laughing they really are just laughing.

    Time will tell but don’t comfort yourself thinking that people are not posting what they sincerely believe.

  2. I haven’t posted here since the May general elections, because the reputation of opinion polling took quite a knock there…it’s hard to take any poll seriously these days.

    However, if we look at the General Election (no disputing that result!), the Tories got 37%, or thereabouts, and Milliband’s Labour got 30.4%. Now, in this latest opinion poll (which we can take with a large dose of salt, as a result of May), the Tories have 39% and Labour have 34%. So much for the right-wing theory that an election of Corbyn will result in voters turning away in droves…Labour under Corbyn has more support than Labour under Milliband.

    Will Corbyn win the next General Election? maybe, maybe not…but that’s not the point. For the majority of posters here, it seems to be about the end result.

    On the contrary, the refreshing appearance of Corbyn means that a significant section of British society that was ignored by the political parties at the last few elections now finally have a voice…the working class. Labour was a working class party when it was founded by Keir Hardie et al, and it’s finally reconnected with its roots. So far, the signs are that they are no worse off than Labour under Milliband. It remains to be seen whether Corbyn can build on that 34%…but it doesn’t matter, so long as Labour stays true to its roots, thanks to Corbyn’s effort to reconnect with its past.

    If anyone wants to vote for a Tory party, they have the Conservatives. If you want to vote Tory-lite, there’s the Lib Dems. The last thing this electorate needs is a New Tory party….

    And despite what the columnists claim, there is a large working class out there. Members of the so-called middle class, like me, have been pushed into the working class by Cameron’s austerity nonsense, so there are a lot of dissatisfied people like me who will vote for Corbyn….

  3. But on a serious note I am against Trident renewal & I have been a member of CND for 20 years, so I am extremely disappointed that Corbyn cannot bring his party with him into the voting lobbies.

  4. People who keep bringing up the comparison with Michael Foot need to also remember that Foot led Thatcher in the opinion polls in 1982, until Thatcher was handed a great opportunity to rally the jingoistic vote by engaging Argentina in the Falklands War….

    So much for the fiction about the manifesto being “The longest suicide note in history.” Rather, this is more a case of revisionist history being written by the victors. It was the Falklands War, rather than Foot’s mainfesto, which decided that election.

  5. ‘a case of revisionist history being written by the victors.’

    Yes, the architects of the modern western neoliberal myth saw 1984 as a manual, rather than a warning, I think.

  6. I would advise Corbyn to start the chistka, because otherwise all the right wingers of his party (suddenly named as moderates instead of aspirational modernisers) will choose the time when they can inflict the most damage.

    Anyway, as to the polls, I’m quite sure that this one is an outlier – Labour is too high and perhaps the Conservatives too (a little bit).

  7. @Couper

    “…so I am extremely disappointed that Corbyn cannot bring his party with him into the voting lobbies.”

    ————–

    Lol Coups, you disappointed in Labour again? None of the other parties seem to disappoint you so much…

  8. @Michael Siva

    You’re a bit like me, recently returning to UKPR after a long post May election hangover. Welcome back!

    I agree with much of what you have to say, particularly the novelty factor about Corbyn and the mainstream media and political establishment’s total inability to come to terms with what he represents. Politics for them is what we saw in the Downing Street Rose Garden in May 2010 when Cameron and Clegg conducted a sort of Prep School prize-giving event in front of a cooing gaggle of political commentators who gazed lovingly at people reassuringly just like themselves. It was politics as they knew it. Cosy, safe, orthodox and predictable; a world inhabited by people who seemed uniquely qualified for it. The accents, the age, the gender, the social class, the schools etc. A rarefied and exclusive Club embracing their own.

    Then up pops someone like Corbyn. They simply can’t handle him so the knee-jerk reaction is that he must be destroyed. He’s a bit like the long-haired oik gate-crashing the Golf Club members bar; dangerous, unfamiliar and an outsider.

    This occurred to me when I watched Neil’s show this lunchtime. Is there a safer more samey political show on TV, by the way? The cloned triumvirate, chaired by Neil, who is just an older version of them, served up all the pat reasons why Corbyn was doomed, their lazy condemnation served up with smug articulacy.

    This treatment of Corbyn makes me want to defend him even more. I have serious misgivings about his ability to win an election for Labour but his studious refusal to conform is quite extraordinarily refreshing. He’s an outsider rattling the establishment and we haven’t had one of those for a very long time.

  9. @Laszlo

    “I promised myself that I wouldn’t go into this Marxist thing, this is how long it lasted.”

    If it’s any consolation I’m glad you broke your promise as I found the post very interesting :)

    Incidentally, have you read Francis Spuffords ‘Red Plenty’?

  10. Couper
    FWIW I thought Murphy would fail badly as SLab leader (not that anyone else would have done much better given the circumstances) so I do accept that often when people laugh they mean it, in fact I never said anything different, there are people here (you may even be one of them but as I said I won’t name names) who undoubtedly think Corbyn will fail and have said as such.

    Conversely though I am also certain that there are people(again you might be one of them) who rubbish Corbyn but secretly are concerned, not “OMG we’re going to lose!!!” concerned more “how do we deal with this? what are the effects of this long term? Is this the beginning of the end?” concerned.

    You don’t have to try and convince me of anything, I have my views, I personally love Corbyn but I am concerned whether the wider electorate will go for him (I’m not really that concerned though since as I’ve also said I don’t think Corbyn has any intention of standing in 2020 but that’s another issue) What I’m saying though is that there is undoubtedly some on opposing sides who are openly concerned about Corbyn, not many I concede but enough to warrant that a statistically significant % of his opponents must also be worried about him by extension. Human nature being what it is many of these people will seek to do Corbyn down as a coping mechanism and I find that not in the slightest bit helpful when those people add to the chorus of “Corbyn is carp” when it would be much more fruitful and interesting for the rest of us if they said what they probably really think which is “Is the latest Corbyn gaffe really that big a deal? Might this not go down well? Is there even a slight chance we’re underestimating him?” etc etc.

    I’d also advise against making claims of certainty. Practically all conventional wisdom flew out the window at the last election, what’s more is that practically every election prior to that there was at least one “certainty” which turned out to be totally wrong. You of all people should know this having made your SNP landslide prediction well in advance and being rubbished or ignored at the time by other commentators. I think its fair to say that event broke several of the “political certainties” that we all like to base all our predictions on.

  11. IMO, the wider Labour membership need to have the opportunity to debate Trident before their delegates vote on it at conference.

    I’m pleased that Unite & other unions have enabled a wider, grassroots debate to take place before any Labour conference gets to debate & vote on the Trident issue.

  12. “Incidentally, have you read Francis Spuffords ‘Red Plenty’?”

    ——-

    Is that about modding too?

    (Btw, I enjoyed Laszlo’s post too…)

  13. The CLPs agreed with the Unions that Trident isn’t amongst the top issues the Labour Party should be discussing.

    Courtesy of the Graun:
    The eight topics that will get debated are: Austerity, employment rights, Europe, housing, the licence fee, mental health, the NHS and the refugee crisis.

    Below are the topics the CLPs chose for debate – ranked in order:
    Housing – 18.1%
    NHS – 15.93%
    Refugees – 15.87%
    Austerity – 11.38%
    Employment rights – 8.2%
    Mental health – 7.83%
    Defence (ie Trident) – 7.10%
    Social security – 5.61%
    Europe – 5.25%
    Rail – 2.62%
    Syria – 1.6%
    Licence fee – 0.76%

    And here are the figures the unions chose:
    Austerity – 24.9%
    Employment rights – 24.75%
    Europe – 24.68%
    Rail – 15%
    Licence fee – 9.77%
    Refugees – 0.35%
    Defence – 0.16%
    Mental health – 0.14%
    Housing – 0.10%
    Social security – 0.01%
    Syria 0%

  14. JOE

    @”Some people like the idea of discussion and rational argument as a route to policy making rather than dictatorship by our ‘betters’.
    I know this is clearly an anathema to you, Colin.”

    You don’t get it do you?

    I couldn’t care less how the Labour Party arrive at their policies-that is all a conversation with themselves-not with me.

    I -and the rest of the UK electorate will only get interested when the Leader of the Labour Party says-I want to be PM & these are our policies.

  15. “I’m pleased that Unite & other unions have enabled a wider, grassroots debate to take place before any Labour conference gets to debate & vote on the Trident issue.”

    Which also, conveniently, means that Parliament will have voted to renew Trident before the 2016 Labour Party Conference takes place.

  16. @ Anarchists Unite

    No, I haven’t, but I will. Thanks.

    The most important thing with Khruschev is that he promised things that people wanted to hear: abundance (the Soviet soldiers were shocked that the defeated Germans had so much higher standards of living), peaceful coexistence (when you could still smell the war in the Soviet Union west of the Volga), and a degree of freedom of speech (the purge of 1936-38 were still fresh in the memories, and of course there was another one (although much more limited) in 1947-49).

    However, none of these promises were kept, and it contributed to the legitimacy crisis of the regime,

    In contrast, under the Stalin-led centre there were few promises (“there will be celebrations in our streets”), but they were kept (“life has become better, has become happier”). Those who were the beneficiaries of the regime (mainly the new generations) and those who were penalised (those who survived the penalties) learnt that the party keeps its words even if it sometimes goes around in an unfollowable way (they have attempted collectivisation at least 5 times from 1918, denied it, and then pushed it through in 1929-31 at a much higher cost than it would have been earlier).

    Khruschev’s speech in the 21st congress was popular, but disastrous (being in communism in 1981 …).

  17. On fears re: Corbyn…

    There’s the question of whether Corbyn can win the election, which many may feel unlikely, but then some of those who think his winning unlikely, may nonetheless be concerned that regardless he may shift the centre leftwards somewhat?

    P.s. Has Armageddon happened yet? I haven’t been paying much attention…

  18. @Couper
    “But on a serious note I am against Trident renewal & I have beeBut on a serious note I am against Trident renewal & I have been a member of CND for 20 years, so I am extremely disappointed that Corbyn cannot bring his party with him into the voting lobbies.n a member of CND for 20 years, so I am extremely disappointed that Corbyn cannot bring his party with him into the voting lobbies.”

    Come on, Couper. How can JC do that? All he can do at this stage is set out what he believes and the democratic process by which a common position can be reached, or failing that a free vote.

    Also I think JC knows that most people in the UK as a whole support thr UK retaining an independent nuclear deterrent (though not necessarily renewing Trident).

  19. @Colin

    “I -and the rest of the UK electorate will only get interested when the Leader of the Labour Party says-I want to be PM & these are our policies.”

    ————

    I dunno Col., you seemed very interested when it seemed there was a chance of Corbyn taking us all the way back to the Seventies and beyond.

    Now that it looks like he might not be doing so much of the Armageddon stuff, suddenly not interested…

  20. Carfrew

    “Has Armageddon happened yet?”

    When it happens, you will know when the Rapture sets in and you see the righteous rising heavenwards.

    Having got rid of those eejits, storage costs will dramatically fall, and Thorium will provide limitless energy for the rest of us.

  21. “How can JC do that? All he can do at this stage…”

    ———

    Must say, it is remarkable how little Corbyn has achieved in a couple of weeks since becoming leader. He’s got little to say about storage too…

  22. @Oldnat

    I suppose if the righteous rise heavenwards, it might reduce storage costs for the rest of us…

  23. Carfrew

    Exactly!

    Of course most of the storage facilities will have been demolished in the blasts, and the survivors will have few goods to store – but really good caves will be at a premium, so get early into that market!

  24. CARFREW

    Well , like everyone else, I only had his record & speeches to go on.

    Now he seems to be saying all of that is subject to democratic will of the members. So I must confess to being a bit confused about the “honest integrity” usp. if in fact his beliefs don’t get translated into policy.

    He made an interesting comment on Marr about his Shadow Chancellor , when questioned about some of his statements in the past. He said they were made before he had Party “responsibility”.

    So -you tell me-do I assume that anything JC believes is relevant to the offering I will get from Labour at the next election?

    As I said- I will just have to wait for the policies till JC has finished asking the troops what they should be.

  25. Colin
    As has been pointed out several times Corbyn ran primarily on an anti-austerity and pro-Labour Party democracy.

    I don’t know why you’re suddenly surprised that he’s not imposing his beliefs on the rank-and-file.

  26. RAF

    “Also I think JC knows that most people in the UK as a whole support thr UK retaining an independent nuclear deterrent (though not necessarily renewing Trident).”

    The last poll I saw in Scotland showed only half of respondents wanting to have WMD – 24% wanted a replacement “equally powerful” as Trident : 26% wanted a replacement that was less powerful and cost less – 37% wanted no WMD at all.

    Normally, Scottish polls show a geographical difference in attitudes to Trident. Those of us living close to Glen Douglas & Faslane are most opposed.

    It would be interesting to see how attitudes in other parts of the UK responded to having them based near their cities. As the UK capital, London should take the lead and volunteer to take them.

  27. @Amber Star

    But isn’t the commons gateway vote prior to the next Labour conference? This means that Labour party policy will be to vote FOR the renewal of Tridents, early next year.

  28. @OldNat

    That poll was another with skewed questions. Most or all submarines are nuclear powered, so I am not sure if people selecting the less expensive/more expensive options would know they were selecting an option that could deliver a nuclear bomb. As from necessity the options did not use the word ‘Trident’.

  29. 57/59 Scottish MPs were elected on a platform of opposition to Trident renewal, so there is little doubt that Scotland is against as we have just had an election where it was a major issue. It is very anti-democratic to house Trident in Scotland or to make Scotland pay for Trident.

  30. My personal issue with Trident is that isn’t truly independent, if we had our own system like the French I probably wouldn’t feel that strongly about it,

  31. Couper2802,

    I think you’re stretching the definition of ‘anti-democratic’ there.

  32. Joe

    We can agree that Trident isn’t “independent”, and that it is “nuclear”.

    So, if it is a “deterrent”, who has it deterred – and how do we know that has deterred them?

    I have rowan trees in my garden. They are reputed to deter witches from entering my property.

    No witches have entered!

    Should rowan trees be planted in every garden, at public expense?

  33. Incidentally, even if the control of Westminster over defence policy hadn’t been democratically mandated by Scottish voters a year ago, it’s by no means clear that the SNP would have the public behind them for removing Trident from Scotland-

    http://whatscotlandthinks.org/questions/if-scotland-became-independent-should-it-continue-to-host-trident-or-not

  34. @Bill Patrick

    When 57 out of 59 MPs vote against Trident renewal, yet it is housed in Scotland and we have to share the cost – that is a democratic deficit without doubt and a complete lack of respect for Scottish democracy.

  35. Bill Patrick

    Indeed. Though that poll, IIRC, had no geographical distribution analysis of the responses.

    Those happily voting SNP/Green/SSP and Yes in the Black Isle may well have thought that screwing the rUK Government for loadsamoney to carry on hosting Trident next to Glasgow was a very reasonable idea.

    :-)

  36. Couper

    WMD are based on the Clyde because Eisenhower decreed that it be so. Harold McMillan just had to do as he was told.

  37. Exit Poll Catalonia: (seats)

    Indenpendentism

    Together for Yes (JxSí) 63-66
    Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP) 11-13

    Everything else (“unionism”)

    Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C’s) 19-21
    Socialists’ Party of Catalonia (PSC) 14-16
    Catalonia Yes we Can (Podemos+United Left) (CSQEP) 12-14
    People’s Party of Catalonia (PPC) 9-11
    Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) 0-3

    Some notes: JxSi is the union of Democratic Convergence (part of the old CiU) and Republican Left.

    From more to less nationalist the order is:
    CUP-JxSI-UDC-CSQEP-PSC-PPC-C’s

  38. Couper
    This is all coming from someone OPPOSED to Trident renewal just so you know.

    The number of MP’s is frankly an irrelevance because as we know the silliness of FPTP means that the SNP could have won every seat in Scotland with 10% of the vote given the correct circumstances. Labour won every seat in Liverpool but I’m not for a second claiming every Scouser opposes austerity (I have a rather irritating aunt as evidence for that)

    Now as it happens about 50% of Scottish people voted for the SNP so you could argue half want rid of Trident but as we very well know there are many Lib, Lab, Green and probably even some Tory and UKIP voters who want rid of Trident. Yet surprising as it seems there are almost certainly some SNP voters who want to keep Trident.

    Hence unless you want to start playing guessing games its best to work with the polling we have no matter how discredited polling is or leading the question may seem. My advice is just to avoid strong definitive statements since we have only limited info.

  39. So, exit poll in the Catalan country: too close to call (for the important questions).

  40. Couper2802,

    If you think that people having to pay for government-provided services that their MPs disapprove of, or having such services in their areas, constitutes a “democratic deficit”, then you have a very different definition of democracy from most, and should have said so.

    As for “Scottish democracy”, I thought that ratifying that defence is a reserved power for Westminster in a referendum was Scottish democracy at work, but perhaps you use a different definition for that as well.

  41. Rivers10

    “we have only limited info.”

    Dead right. What is worst, though, is that in the UK there has been no real debate as to whether Trident/some alternative WMD/ more (or less) conventional forces is the best “Defence” strategy.

    The Westminster parties (and their compliant media – or vice versa) have largely closed down the debate – and the only one of them that might conceivably raised the debate, beyond the level of simplistic nonsense, seems to have closed down even an internal debate.

    When people have “limited info”, their choice options are equally limited.

  42. MICO

    “Decoupling the provision of services from the management of production is precisely what Blair did by allowing the free market to produce as was most efficient and then having a large welfare state through which the government redistributes that produce retroactively. ”

    I thought Attlee, Morrison, Bevan and Beaverbrook did that. I am not sure that removing Clause 4 affected the NHS much or National Insurance – though he may have opened the way for PFI and Academies.

  43. Bill Patrick

    Quite right. Defence is a reserved matter under the current constitutional arrangement.

    In the UK democracy, it would seem right and proper to have a genuine debate as to whether purchasing updated WMDs is the most appropriate way to deploy scarce public (and borrowed!) cash to fulfil the defence needs of the UK.

    Surely the connivance of the main UK parties to avoid such a debate is somewhat undemocratic – though I accept that “you may use a different definition for that as well.”

  44. Oldnat,

    I agree with all that. I’m not sure that the main parties are against having a genuine debate about it; it may depend on which parties you mean. The SNP are a main party if the Lib Dems were, and they’re pretty keen on a debate; similarly, I don’t think that the Tories are against debating anyone else on the issue, even if they’re internally almost entirely unified on the matter. Whereas Labour… Well, they seem to be almost the opposite: they’ve got a lot of internal debating to do before they can present a unified front to anyone.

  45. @Oldnat

    Having provisions secreted in storage units will be essential in the post-apocalyptic world.

    I may need more units…

    My biggest concern is how easy it’ll be to get a nice coffee. (And whether I’ll still be able to charge my iPad…)

  46. @Colin

    “So -you tell me-do I assume that anything JC believes is relevant to the offering I will get from Labour at the next election?”

    ————

    He’s only been elected for a couple of weeks. The GE is years away. I doubt most will be unable to function if the entire policy platform isn’t revealed in the next few days.

    Politicians change their beliefs and policies quite frequently, we can start with pasties and green carp and Big Society and proceed from there.

    Cammers believed in the Syria action, but still bowed to the democratic thing. Equally, despite his belief we should remain in the EU, he seems keen to have a democratic decision.

    Don’t Lib Dems vote on policy or summat? No one seems to worry about that.

    So it’s hard to see why you are so worried about Corbs exhibiting behaviour like bowing to others’ votes, that is also exhibited in other politicians…

  47. @ Carfrew

    If there is a rapture, there will be enough residual energy to charge your tablet, if it hasn’t got toasted in the energy outburst.

    Coffee is not an issue – it will come direct on a pipe, just between the pipes for St Chinian and premier cru Chablis just next to the water tap by the wash basin.

    This is in the Scriptures (by some interpretations, although not universally accepted), but I haven’t found anything about storage place.

  48. It is strange on Cornyn. First he was going to be a disaster because he’d be a closed minded Stalinist who’d build a personality cult. Now he’s going to be a disaster because he’s being an open minded democrat who’s letting party members have a say in policy.

    It’s almost as if people have pre-committed to the idea that he’ll be a disaster and are just latching on to any reason they can find to justify that belief.

    @Carfew

    Bits of it are about modding (well censorship)…

    @Laszlo

    Thanks for that. I suppose that might go some way to explaining why some people in Russia have a certain nostalgia for Stalin – whereas Khrushchev is held in rather low esteem (as I recall).

  49. Lazlo

    You just won my vote for the funniest UKPR post! :-)

  50. Carfrew

    “I may need more units”

    I can offer you a high discount deal on massive storage facilities in Glen Douglas! You will need to clear out some existing garbage, but you can probably find a buyer for them on e-bay.

    Just send me your bank account details and passwords and all these wonderful caves can be yours!

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