Ipsos MORI have published their September political monitor for the Evening Standard. Topline voting intention figures are CON 39%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%.

MORI have made another methodological change in the light of the polling error at the general election. Previously they had started including how regularly people say they usually vote in the turnout filter, now they have also added additional weighting by newspaper readership. Again, the methodology review is still an ongoing process, and MORI make clear they anticipate making further changes.

The rest of the poll had a series of questions about perceptions of the party leaders and parties.

Jeremy Corbyn’s first satisfaction rating is minus 3 (33% are satisfied with him as leader, 36% dissatisfied). At first glance that isn’t bad – it’s a better net rating than Cameron or the government! In a historical context though it’s not good. New leaders normally get a polling honeymoon, the public give them the benefit of the doubt to begin with and Corbyn’s net rating is the worst MORI have recorded for a new leader of one of the big two parties (the initial ratings for past party leaders were Miliband +19, Brown +16, Cameron +14, Howard +9, IDS 0, Hague -1, Blair +18, Smith +18, Major +15, Kinnock +20, Foot +2)

Looking at the more detailed questions on perceptions of Jeremy Corbyn his strengths and weaknesses compared to David Cameron are very similar to the ones we got used to in Cameron v Miliband match ups: Cameron scores better on things like being a capable leader, good in a crisis, sound judgement; Corbyn scores better on being in touch with ordinary people, having more substance than style and being more honest than most politicians. Asked overall who would make the most capable Prime Minister Cameron wins by 53% to 27%.

Of course, all of Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings need to be seen in the context that he is very new to the job and the public don’t know a whole lot about him beyond the initial negative press. Early perceptions of him may yet change. His figures may get better… or worse.

MORI also asked about perceptions of the Labour and Conservative parties, and here the impact of Corbyn’s victory on how the Labour party itself is seen was very evident. The proportion of people seeing the party as divided is up 33 points to 75%, extreme is up 22 points to 36% and out of date is up 19 points to 55%. Both the Labour party and the Conservative party had a big jump in the proportion of people saying they were “Different to other parties” – I suppose it takes two parties to be different from each other!

Full details of the MORI poll are here


437 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39, LAB 34, LD 9, UKIP 7, GRN 4”

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  1. My apologies regarding Syzygy’s gender, I was aware of Amber and Couper though.

  2. And Spearmint…

  3. @MARK SADLER

    Interesting that Mandelson is all over the newspapers, instructing the PLP not to remove Corbyn until the time is right; Yvette is supposedly poised to take over; Charles Clark appears on Sky saying that ‘the party’ needs to develop credible (i.e. New Labour) policies in readiness for when JC is deposed; army generals threaten a coup and so on … and you think that removing the party whip from those in the PLP, who undermine and brief against a democratically elected leader who gained 60% of the vote, is a step too far!

  4. Syzygy

    I gather from Faisal Islam’s tweets that Corbyn has pointed out that (though he won’t interfere in constituency selection processes) the boundary changes will affect virtually all seats, so an automatic selection process will take place everywhere – in 2018?

  5. @ Carfrew

    My autocorrect even corrected Syzygy … But now I made it remember. It’s funny with “auto” correct – if you don’t go manual, it goes autopilot.

  6. Lazlo

    I wouldn’t DARE correct Syzygy ! :-)

  7. @ Oldnat

    Sometimes you stretch credibility far too far :)

  8. @Laszlo

    Your analysis is a good one.

    Corbyn certainly has the Socialist Campaign Group of MPs as firm support within the PLP. However Patrick Wintour and Watts choose to present it in their articles, I know that a collective decision was made by that group that one of them should contest the leadership election. JC was nominated and unanimously agreed. Hence Corbyn always talks about ‘we’ and rarely ‘I’.

    One of their first moves has been to reach out to leftist groups across the EU with a view to setting up international links – a move strongly recommended by Leo Panitch in this Real News item: https://youtu.be/jxuyc7t-SIY

    It is not clear whether the numbers of MPs will actually be reduced to 600. I know that there is strong opposition from the Conservative back benches. However, I have no doubt that a number of MPs, that were parachuted into safe Labour seats by Peter Mandelson, would have reason to be concerned. Certainly, Tristam Hunt has been strongly criticised by his local parties.

    I believe that some 140 of the 232 Labour MPs now have positions in the Shadow Cabinet/Frontbench which I think was a very good move.

    Finally I completely agree that:

    ‘The other problem is the Labour Central Office – I don’t know what rights the leader has, but certainly he has to have his trusted people there in positions where they can get, process, and monitor information – unless the union’s provide the resources to set up an alternative central office.’

    It was well known that Ed Miliband was constantly undermined by many of the staff in Labour HQ… I believe that the current staff wore black, as in mourning, when Corbyn’s election was announced.

  9. Syzygy

    Maybe Labour should consider moving their HQ to somewhere like Leeds or Liverpool?

    That’s not a humorous suggestion btw. Kezia Dugdale has already said she intends to move LiS HQ from Glasgow to Edinburgh (and there has been an assumption that a large part of that is to get rid of the old staff).

  10. @ Oldnat

    That sounds like a good way to induce a natural turnover. There was a suggestion in the newspaper that staff contracts automatically ended with the election of a new leader but I imagine that getting rid of the less loyal all at once might be quite difficult.

  11. Pete B: “leaving the EU …. would also free us from stupid trivial interference in domestic matters, such as the imminent introduction of charging for plastic bags in supermarkets. Whether or not it’s a good idea, it’s no business of the EU.”

    I’m not sure this is a good example to choose, as charging for plastic bags is a simple, inexpensive and highly effective way to reduce waste and pollution. Pollution needs to be controlled at a regional level, because it doesn’t respect borders.

    It really boils down to whether you think the EU is just about trade and business, or has a remit to make Europe a better place. That ranges from the big things like avoiding wars (and who’s to say Hungary and Croatia, for example, wouldn’t have come to blows this year without EU membership?), to smaller but to many people highly desirable things like minimum standards for animal welfare or protecting travellers from ripoff mobile phone roaming charges.

  12. @Syzygy

    The think I found most interesting/amusing from that report on Mandelson was the bit where it said that Kendall’s campaign had conducted polls showing that her austerity and welfare message would see her lose the election; and both Cooper and Burnham knew that voting for Harman’s welfare policy would see Corbyn win and them lose.

    All three of them persisted with doing things that they all knew would see them lose. Clearly this is the strategic insight and tactical acumen that would have seen Labour sweep to victory in 2020…

    Also, on other matters, given McDonnel’s recent comments it appears that Corbyn understands triangulation better than its supposed proponents (i.e. tack left to win the nomination, then tack to the center to win the election). Perhaps he has more cunning and smarts than people have been willing to credit.

  13. @ anarch

    Good value as always.

    ‘Perhaps he has more cunning and smarts than people have been willing to credit.’

    I think so … his election campaign was very impressive and meticulously organised… but we shall see.

  14. Anarch

    ” tack to the center to win the election”

    While tacking to the left in Europe, as Leo Panitch argued in his well thought out Real News interview, diminishing or ending British involvement in the American Empire and supporting a more decentralized European Union in which a radical democratic socialism would move economies, notably that of the UK, away from the capitalist control of bankers, and more – as in the opposition to the Trades Uniion Bill – towards protection of the rights of organised labour and thus to a more democratic socialist system.
    Of salience to the subject of the previous thread, in Panitch’s analysis, continuation – and in some respects a strengthening of Britain’s membership of and participation in the EU would specifically be to maintain human rights and to enable unionised work forces, internationally, to work “within the State” as well as in extra parliamentary action to create a post-capitalist democratic socialist Europe – and one which – I would add – is outward looking towards emergent and developing economies.
    It is, I think, the internationalism of this view which would be a force driving a leftist character to a Corbyn inspired movement in the Labour Party, even if, – in opposition or in government – it sought to take the domestic middle ground.
    Panitch also makes the point that it is the membership (and registered supporters) which is the power base of Corbyn’s support for such an agenda, not the Parliamentary Party.

  15. Fingers crossed John Pilgrim :)

  16. @ Howard
    A bit late, but
    http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32013R0666
    Do you really think regulations of this sort are necessary, desirable and effective ?
    Their objective is to reduce annual electricity consumption. See Annexes.
    So far as I can see, there is no limit set for frequency of use, which presumably depends on how quickly your carpets become dirty again after cleaning.
    For another view (not one I wholly share – I think the consequences Hannan believes are calculated are in fact unintended consequences of a particular bureaucratic mindset) see:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2740273/DANIEL-HANNAN-Banning-vacuum-cleaners-isn-t-saving-planet-s-Brussels-grabbing-power.html

  17. JOHN PILGRIM……..To me, the structure you outline is both naive and dangerous, giving British Unions any sort of political power would result in chaos and the sort of destructive behaviour that would set us back years. What to you is a Utopian ideal, would, to me, be a Dystopian nightmare. In my opinion, Unions are more corrupt than banks could ever be, under the influence of corrupt Union bosses, British industry was sabotaged in the 60’s and 70’s, I was there and experienced it first hand, working to finance businesses that were being undermined by their organised workforces, my advice was to move operations out of the U.K.
    Once great British businesses were brought to their knees by the sort of union activity you want brought back, I’m amazed.
    We must agree to differ however, and I respect your right to hold such potentially destructive views.

  18. @Pete B – can’t agree with you at all on plastic bags. If you look at the climate change impacts of plastic bags, or the damage they do to marine life (100,000 whales and dolphins killed each year by ingesting them, for example) it’s precisely the kind of cross border issue that the EU should be attending to.

    Besides – the charge itself isn’t an EU stricture. The directive instructs member states to find a way to reduce plastic bag use by 80% by 2019, but left it up to states to work out how best to do this.

  19. Powerful Hoover’s are a marketing rip off. I gathered from an expert on r4 a few months back that you can only get so much suck to the floor. The pipe and innerds of the hoover limit this. More power past a certain point will just heat your room. 250w of suck to floor is the Max. Hoover’s of 600w can achieve this with sensible design.

    The whole hoover thing is misleading and misused.

  20. I foolishly hired a 12 ft wide bouncy castle a few years ago. That had a 1000w blower. That power supported many foolish adults.

    No hoover needs to suck like that blew. Marketing madness.

  21. MARK W…….We don’t use our vacuum cleaner any more, it’s just gathering dust. :-)

  22. @ Ken

    I can’t comment on the unions in the 1960s and 1970s, but my experience in British manufacturing in the last 20 years suggests that the self-preservation of management due to the incompetence of owners resulted in a huge destruction of value (after all it’s much easier to cut 6% of the cost than increasing sales by 10% – even though the former one may destroy the company (and a few others) in medium term). The U.K. Is the only advanced economy where manufacturing output is still below the 1991 level.

  23. Ken

    “We don’t use our vacuum cleaner any more”

    Of course you don’t! Why else would you have servants?

    For the deprived servantless class, there was a hand powered vacuum cleaner produced in 1913, called a “Ukanusa Drudgee”.

    You may care to recommend it to any acquaintances who are keen on hard physical labour and energy (from the grid) saving.

  24. @ Anarchists Unite

    It seems to me that both Corbyn and McDonnell have changed their behaviours in the last few months (or their behaviours changed spontaneously). They certainly triangulate. We will see how effective it is. I don’t have much faith in it, so it would be easier to take the bureaucratic power base outside the PLP and the shadow cabinet. They will need resources for this though.

  25. JOHN PILGRIM
    you recommend “supporting a more decentralized European Union in which a radical democratic socialism moves economies”?
    Really?
    Perhaps you should take a trip to Brussels to see if you can find a single person there who would support this contradictory cocktail.

  26. David Colby

    How many do you think you would find in Whitehall who would support “a more decentralized [United Kingdom] in which a radical democratic socialism moves economies”?

    Establishments are seldom keen on limits on their power – but that’s why democracy is (just sometimes) effective in putting them in their place.

  27. LASZLO……..We obviously tread different paths in business, my experience is of well managed, innovative organisations, thriving in the marketplace, and seeking readily available funds, for expansion.
    Strong management and an appreciative workforce, characterises the nature of these enterprises, labour organised by management, not unions.
    Incidentally, the unions in Germany must be complicit in the fraudulent behaviour of the auto manufacturers, corrupt management supported by corrupt organised labour, intriguing. :-)

  28. OLDNAT…….Is it me, or did you miss my joke ? ( My vacuum cleaner is gathering dust ! ) I thought it deserved at least a lol.
    Incidentally, our only servant is a delightful young Ukranian lady who has a key to our apartment, and apparently, graces us with her presence 3 days a week, cleaning and ironing, often when we’re out. In time available she is studying for a degree in modern languages, she speaks 6. :-)

  29. Ken

    How could I miss something so obvious? :-)

  30. Thought not. :-)

  31. Ken

    I’ll leave it to your cleaner to explain to you how you failed to understand the linguistic construction of my last post. :-)

  32. OLDNAT
    Fair point, but I often read comments here that presume attitudes pertaining to Europe which are so out of whack with reality it’s just comical. There’s almost no appetite for radical democratic socialism in Europe and the majority of Europeans just shake their heads in wonder when they bother to listen to some of the stuff we Brits spout.

    The RIGHT won the last European elections, that’s why Junkers got his job. Everyone in Europe understood that apart from cameron and uk voters apparently; his face was plastered on posters everywhere in Europe, (except in the UK).
    Another example of what I’m trying to describe would be the recent to and fro here about pooling our nuclear deterrent with france. What an absurd discussion. France would NEVER pool it’s nuclear weapons with the uk, but this didn’t seem to occur to anyone having the discussion.

  33. OLDNAT……..My dad knew Alan Turing, and I still don’t get it! :-)

  34. @Alec, I’d be interested to know where you were told that 100,000 figure.

    It originally comes from an estimated “50 to 90 thousand” Callorhinus ursinus seals dying after getting entangled in netting. You may notice that isn’t close to what you said:because that’s the original (though widely thought to be a gross overestimate) figure from 1983. It’s an infamous nonsense stat, of the sort that undermines environmentalisms reputation, because why would you trust any organisation which repeated such a thing?

  35. OLDNAT

    I gather from Faisal Islam’s tweets that Corbyn has pointed out that (though he won’t interfere in constituency selection processes) the boundary changes will affect virtually all seats, so an automatic selection process will take place everywhere – in 2018?

    They have to get passed by Parliament first though. The boundary revision process will go ahead , starting I assume early next year and using the electoral register figures as at this December (Anthony will know the details). But when they are completed, they will have to be passed by the Commons.

    Because they will still be based on reducing the number of MPs to 600, there will be a good, principled (if not superficially popular) reason to oppose it. All the opposition will oppose (as they did in the last Parliament, except for APNI) and there may be Conservatives who also vote it down. Either out of principle (though only four of the awkward squad opposed last time) or fear of losing their seats. The latter didn’t need to make a stand last time as they could rely on the Lib Dems to vote it down. This time they may need to act to avoid the subsequent game of musical seats.

    The main thing that might see it pass though is that Labour’s discipline has been poor so far this Parliament. Not so much in terms of how they vote, but whether they are there at all. On recent topics such as the benefit cap or TU Bill they have had more absences than the Conservatives, so it’s not just pairing.

  36. Ken
    If you’ld read/listened to Panitch’s interview, you’ld know that I was paraphrasing his very good prognosis of the pro-EU intent of a Corbyn programme.
    I don’t necessarily agree or disagree with it, but it needs to be seen through the prism of both a domestic and an international political commitment to human rights legislation and organisation based on maintaining what has historically been a benign and effective role of the trades unions in industrial management.
    Given the lack of any drawn out industrial dispute in the past decade, and the reliance of the Government on citing the NUT strike of two years ago and the recent London underground strikes as justification of the Trades Union Bill, there is every grounds for saying this is unnecessary legislation.
    While Panitch’s paraphrase of a Corbynian internationalism is expressed, rightly, as an attack on the further advance of a banker-led capitalism, it is at that level of in participation of socialism in the State – with widespread support, not only in the Labour movement, but also in industry – that opposition to an imbalance in power is likely to continue, in Europe as well as in the UK.
    It is a necessary opposition to the recent pathology of the international banking system, should involve the UK position in the EU, and should have been present in Labour policy as the basis of Brown’s defence of the UK finances and economy in 2009.
    Far from being extreme or even left wing these are essentially the acceptance and democratic management of the market system which has long been embraced in mainstream Labour economic policy and in its acceptance of the EU.

  37. Ken

    Your 10.53 was “bang on”. Those of us in industry in the 60s & 70s remember just how destructive the Unions were. IMO It wasn’t Mrs T who destroyed much of British industry, a much peddled untruth, it was a combination of the unions and bad British management..

  38. Be interesting to see where things go from here.

    The problem for the right wing press and the soft left pro-Cooper Guardian may be that Corbyn’s ratings go up from here. The press gave him the full Ralph Miliband and all it has produced is a slightly negative rating. It’s possible he’ll move into positive territory next time – particularly with the conference coming up and hopefully the Blairites start to move out of the Rage and Denial stage they seem to be stuck in.

    How will the Mail cover that?

  39. Mathew Parris this morning puts an interesting viewpoint on parties who start to talk to themselves more than the public at large.

    Parties beaten badly at the polls do this -“hunkering down” & “listening” to their activists.-forgetting that even 250,000 of them isn’t on the same planet as 11.3 million voters at a GE.

    I like putting snippets of stuff in news together :-

    The OECD estimates that the unemployment rate for foreign-born workers is at least double that for native-born workers in Belgium, Sweden, Austria, Netherlands & Denmark. It is 70% higher in Finland France & Germany ( UK-18% higher-USA-no difference)

    As Merkel’s open doors invitation to “Syrians” causes the biggest migration to Western Europe since the aftermath of WW11 -hundreds of thousands of Albanians/Pakistanis/Afghans/Iraqis etc etc-plus a lot of Syrians-her star begins to wane. Her popularity rating fell to 49% last time; In Bavaria-initial destination of huge numbers of migrants, ( 135k this month alone) increasing public concern is mirrored on the political front-CSU threatened to leave the coalition , prompting Merkel’s u-turn on border controls; & CDU /CSU Mps turned on Merkel in a private meeting this week. Interior Minster de Maiziere breaks ranks on migrant limits.
    Open disagreement with eastern european countries results in border fences & controls, and recriminations at Merkel’s “moral imperialism”

    Ban-Ki Moon steps down as UN Sec. Gen next year.

    So, putting two & two together & making five :-

    Merkel’s disastrous policy on Syrian “refugees” intensifies EU’s poor record of economic integration of migrants, causing inter-cultural strife , and political splits inside Germany & within EU.
    Merkel steps down & goes to UN.

    …………….leaving Cameron with a new German Chancellor& and a shaken EU, much more receptive to his policy stance on Syria, and agenda for change in EU.

  40. Good summation of the situation Colin. Will he get a good deal though, enough to satisfy a majority of Eurosceptics? I doubt that, in my case I would only vote to stay in if the EU was reduced to a simpler free-trade area and the Euro was abandoned. That’s not going to happen, at least not until the EU itself breaks up which I expect to happen anyway. Difficult to put a time scale on it though, down to future events.

  41. Colin

    I should have added also repeal of European Rights legislation as well to my “wants” list.

  42. Roger Mexico

    Good point about Parliamentary approval of seat changes. Indeed, I suppose that the prospect of wholesale selection processes in a divided party may give some existing Lab MPs pause for thought.

  43. Boundary changes could put the Lib Dems in mortal peril. Clegg’s in particular danger.

  44. TOH

    I suppose a different interpretation of the chaos engulfing EU at present is that they will all tell DC to go away because they have more pressing priorities.

    I think the outcome of that may well be an increased majority in UK of those who want to leave.

    The EU is not a good avert for itself at present. Frankly it seems that when the chips are down, National Self Interest overides the veneer of collective “Europeanism” which the EU institutions spend so much time & money projecting.

  45. @ Colin

    While the figures on the unemployment of non-EU citizens (many of whom were born in the EU) are correct, it doesn’t say enough (in particular the disproportionate effects of the recession on this group).

    There is a lot more statistics here: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Migrant_integration_statistics_-_employment that contextualises the problem and its dependence on the economy (also on self-employment, temporary employment, effects of intra-EU migration), and differences in labour market institutions in different member states.

    Of course it is challenge, but far from unachievable. Yes, highly unpopular (migration) among the voters, but so are privatised railways and MPs expense fiddling.

    From now until 2020 in Germany 6.5 million people will retire … But they will need not only the people, but also huge investment in education and vocational training, otherwise it will be a disaster.

  46. COLIN
    ” increasing public concern is mirrored on the political front-CSU threatened to leave the coalition , prompting Merkel’s u-turn on border controls;”

    Did it, though? My understanding is that temporary border controls have been introduced to allow for the registration and absorption of a surge which Bavaria in particular has been unable to manage. Merkel’s (and a number of mainly industrial states and cities having the likelihood of a manpower shortage and an increasing aged and dependent population) will, as she predicts, absorb up to 500,000 this and in coming years in a context of economic growth. It might be expected that this development would increasingly overcome the immediate negative reaction to pressures which have arisen in the past three months.

  47. If your fellow contributors will indulge me for a brief time I would like to quote and make references to a article in todays Times. this article under the banner line we misread the mood on austerity says rising star quotes said rising star ” labour lost the election because the public agreed with the Tories on austerity and the party is still ”light years” away from mainstream public opinion on immigration ,welfare and the economy ” Further on down the piece it is noted that this rising star states that there are a number of issues in which they and there leader differ including renationalisation , nuclear power and N.A.T.O , suggesting that they would not automatically come to his aid if he came under fire from the shadow cabinet . Who is this rising star ? Chuka Umunna , Dan Jarvis , Stella Creasy or Keir Starmer no none other than many on the left’s favoured successor Lisa Nandy.

  48. I am interested in how those the ‘Leave’ campaign can really work together in the forthcoming referendum.

    The Leave.EU campaign clearly ticks the boxes of those who come from the UKIP side. They seem to come strongly from the view that leaving the EU strengthens borders, and allows more immigration controls (ie have fewer immigrants in the UK).

    These are not the reasons I would be likely to want to vote to leave. For me, I have issues with the single currency, poor EU democracy, the preferential treatment of global financiers over the interests of citizens and sharing a political grouping with the likes of Hungary and other Eastern European countries, who have anti-immigrant cultures I utterly despise. I don’t want to leave the EU to bring down the shutters on immigration.

    I could not see people like myself sharing a platform comfortably with Leave.EU, as there is a substantial gulf between them and ‘leave’ campaigners from the left.

  49. LASZLO & JOHN PILGRIM

    Lets await news & outcomes from Germany. It is too easy to pontificate from another country…………..as I just did :-) :-)

  50. CATMAN

    @” there is a substantial gulf between them and ‘leave’ campaigners from the left.”

    How on earth does leaving in a “left” way differ from leaving in any other way ???

    When you’ve left the EU -you have left it. What sort of UK you want is for the UK ballot box-but leaving the EU isn’t a binary option-it is a unitary one.

    So if you really want UK to leave, surely you would join forces with anyone else who wanted to.

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