ComRes and YouGov both had post-Corbyn polls in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and Sunday Times respectively. Tabs are here – Comres, YouGov.

ComRes had topline voting intention figures of CON 42% (+2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1). Changes are since their August poll and show no obvious impact from Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader.

YouGov had topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3%. YouGov haven’t released voting intention figures since May, but as you can see, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is barely changed from the election (the difference between the 12 point Tory lead in ComRes and the 8 point Tory lead in YouGov will be at least partially because ComRes have adopted their new socio-economic turnout model, which weights down younger and poorer voters who are historically less likely to vote. YouGov are still reviewing their methods post-election).

YouGov included some more questions about early attitudes towards Jeremy Corbyn. Most people don’t think he has much chance of being Prime Minister (only 14% think it’s likely), but beyond that attitudes are currently quite evenly divided. 30% think he’s strong enough to be a good leader, 41% think he is not.

36% of people agree with the description that Corbyn has dangerous and unworkable views and would be a threat to the economy and national security, but 32% agree with the description that he’s a man of integrity & principle who has caught the mood of people disillusioned by politics. 7% don’t agree with either, 6% agree with both (which is fair enough – one could be a decent and principled man with unworkable and dangerous views!).

YouGov also asked about a list of policies that have been supported by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell in the past, announced by Corbyn or floated as possible Labour policies. Again, they found a mixed bag. Some, like withdrawal from NATO, negotiating over the Falklands and abolishing the benefit cap are extremely unpopular, but other things like a higher top rate of tax, rent controls and nationalising the utility companies meet with wide public approval.

The rest of ComRes’s poll had bank of favourable/unfavourable opinion questions on leading politicians. Boris Johnson had the most favourable net score of those asked about with plus 8, followed by David Cameron on minus 7, Theresa May (minus 11), Vince Cable (minus 14), George Osborne (minus 17), Jeremy Corbyn (minus 18), Nicola Sturgeon (minus 19), Nick Clegg (minus 27).

Tom Watson actually had a comparatively good score – minus 8 – but on a low number of responses (71% said don’t know or no opinion), Tim Farron and John McDonnell got similarly high don’t knows, though more negative scores. At this stage, the public simply aren’t familiar enough with them to hold any strong positive or negative opinions.

UPDATE: I missed a third national GB poll, Opinium for the Observer. They had topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. Opinium also included a best PM question (Cameron 41%, Corbyn 22%) and had some figures on whether Labour under Corbyn could win that were a little more optimistic for them – 32% think Labour could definitely or probably win under Corbyn, 55% though they probably or definitely could not. Tabs are here.


345 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. Nuclear power has been a disaster from start to finish. Why do you think the Germans, the most successful engineers in the world, have decided to scrap it? If the UK really wanted to stop ‘global warming’ perhaps not building skyscrapers in London might be a start.

  2. In all honesty I doubt this ‘scandal’ is going to affect things one way or the other. It is, basically, a case of ‘my friend said that they knew someone, whose friend said that’… It’ll just reinforce the opinions of those who didn’t vote/like Cameron anyway and as for those who do, well, they’ve stuck with him over five years of poor and bizarre decision making so highly doubt this is where the line will be drawn.

    As for the others; that he did drugs at university was well known when he was opposition leader. The tax allegations thing might run but, let’s be honest, even his most ardent supporters probably didn’t believe him when he said he only knew for a month.

    All this is, is a case of a billionaire who can afford to bat away a libel case taking revenge. So the real scandal here is the idea that someone thought they could buy a cabinet position – and that someone else encouraged them in that belief.

    Meanwhile, in other news, I note that this emissions scandal is hitting VW hard. Looks like buying a load of German cars is going to become an important part of Greece’s austerity program…

    @Colin

    “………..so once again the DM headlines totally unsubstantiated slurs & innuendo about a Labour politician to fill its gutter soaked pages …………..”

    In fairness, from where the Mail stands Cameron probably is a Labour politician ;)

  3. @TOH – “I see the usual suspects are spending a lot of time talking about pigs.”

    Well – at least it lends new meaning to the term ‘party member’.

  4. @ Pete B

    “I wonder where all our nuclear scientists and engineers have gone? We used to build our own, with our own money and our own designs.”

    We DO build our own nuclear reactors. Our submarines are powered by Rolls-Royce British-built (and designed) nuclear reactors. Small enough to fit in a submarine but one of them generates enough energy to power a city the size of Southampton.

    I assume part of the reason we’re getting the French and Chinese in is because it’s cheaper and quicker to have them do it, learn from their designs and enhance our skills base again like that, rather than funding a brand new large reactor design ourselves. Although with China it’s also partly political. British nuclear safety regulations are the gold standard. The Chinese want to export their design to other countries. If they get a successful one going here in Britain it’s the best possible advertisement for their stuff. In exchange, the Chinese will help us out in other areas (see the announcements recently)

    @wolf

    Nuclear power is vital if we want to move away from fossil fuels. The Germans do some things right but they get plenty wrong, and completely abandoning nuclear was one of them. Renewables are great but the high power-generation renewables aren’t reliable, and the reliable ones don’t generate much power.

    Nuclear is expensive but reliable and generates a lot of energy. We want to rely on energy imports as little as possible in the future.

  5. My first reaction to the pig story was to laugh. And I also laughed at the Ed Stone.

    It’s probably as well for Cameron that he’s not facing another election – ridicule hurts more than anything.

    Can you imagine him at summits and stuff and all the pig jokes flying around?

    More interesting is Ashcroft’s agenda. Cameron is stepping down anyway, so what’s the point – unless he is trying to push him out earlier? Anyone with inside knowledge of the Conservatives want to tell us the internal politics of this?

  6. Do polls (opinion or real) matter when apparently there is a General in the British Army prepared to countenance mutiny if Corbyn becomes prime minister?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/british-army-could-stage-mutiny-under-corbyn-says-senior-serving-general-10509742.html

    Pigs Heads, Nuclear Power, Disgruntled Lords, surely there is a more important question to pose if a serving senior General can even contemplate overturning a democratic government.

  7. WB,

    “A spokesman for Jeremy Corbyn said he would not comment on remarks made anonymously.”

    Sounds like a very good policy.

  8. Candy

    In terms of succession, I am interested in who the source is. One person springs to mind.

    Cripes.

  9. Did David Cameron have sex with a pig or is this just twitter gossip?

  10. Last week the Russian embassy stepped up its trolling of UK Prime Minister David Cameron.

    This week the Russian embassy stepped up its trolling of UK Prime Minister David Cameron (again).

    In the wake of pig gate, the Twitter account @CameronPig emerged, unsurprisingly amassing thousands of followers in a matter of minutes.

    One of its followers is, yes you guessed it, the Russian embassy
    ______

    Crikey this piggery stuff is getting out of hand.

  11. @Hawthorn
    “One person springs to mind.”

    No, it can’t be Roly as (a) he’s retired and (b) the language in those quotes is far too mild.

  12. Terry Pratchett, as usual is on the money whenit comes to Pig Gate: from “The Truth”

    Character assassination. What a wonderful idea. Ordinary assassination only works once, but this one works every day.

  13. Omni
    That’s good to know about our nuclear industry. One question – where do we get our uranium from? Are supplies secure?

    WB
    Military takeover has been suggested before. Look up General Walter Walker in about 1974.

  14. @AC
    Hard to justify the word ‘sex’, given neither Cameron nor the pig achieved gratification. Though Bismark may have.

    @Pete B, Uranium.

    IIRC, we have decent Uranium deposits, but haven’t bothered mining them in 100 years. It stockpiles very easily, so supply security isn’t really a worry.

  15. Wood
    Wikipedia (which i should have looked at first, mea culpa) says that it was mined in Cornwall, but as you say not for over 100 years. Also deposits in Orkney – one reason to keep the Union I suppose.

  16. @Hawthorn

    This stuff hurts the blond one as well. See the following:

    http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2015/09/its-about-time-piers-gaveston-stopped-causing-trouble.html

    The only people who benefit are those outside the gilded circle.

  17. @pete b

    We have uranium here but there would be environmental damage if it was mined. Instead we import uranium mostly from Canada and Australia, so yeah pretty secure.

  18. Candy

    I think that might well be the return shot in the political briefing war, if my suspicion is correct.

    It wouldn’t be great for Osborne either.

  19. Do you think Cameron’s antics may upset both the Jewish and the Muslim communities.

    Just asking.

    :-)

  20. There is a lot of stuff to come out about Cameron, Osborne and Boris. Unfortunately for those wishing it were otherwise it will all be completely untrue. Boris was very high profile and all of his misdeeds will already be in the public domain. By all accounts both Cameron and Osborne were fairly conventional and boring. They all incidentally got good degrees which is rarely the hallmark of the wild and feckless. Also, so called witnesses, high on cocaine, are unlikely to be reliable.

    Cameron has to simply ignore this. Ashcroft is completely immune to being sued as he has so much money he could throw millions at the case without blinking. This is classic “have you stopped beating your wife territory”

    Ironically, although Cameron has said he will not lead his party in 2020, stuff like this may change his mind if it continues and he has to prove he is not frit.

  21. I’m surprised that the VW scandal has only just emerged. My local garage proprietor, down here in sleepy Devon, told me about the ‘defeat’ software at least a year ago.

  22. WB

    The Independent story seems to be more about the threat of resignations than anything more dramatic. The British Army could probably afford to lose a few generals I suspect – assuming it now employs any other ranks than that.

    There was a nice Freudian slip in the article though:

    The Sunday Times reported that half of Mr Corbyn’s Cabinet have approached David Cameron to say they are prepared to defy the whip and vote with the government so long as Mr Cameron comes up with a coherent plan.

    though given the incoherence of the Labour establishment over the last few months, perhaps not.

    (I don’t actually believe this bit of the story for a minute as it sounds exactly like CCHQ briefing to cause trouble. Not that large numbers of Labour grandees wouldn’t be capable of behaving like drama queens, but because they’d go directly to their mates in the Press rather than use Cameron as a rather unlikely go-between)

  23. Jayblanc
    I’m trying to imagine how YouGov are going to phrase the inevitable opinion question for this new development…
    In case nobody has responded to this, here you go:

    The Daily Mail has published new allegations that David Cameron was involved in debauched behaviour during his time at Oxford University. Does this matter to you?

  24. @Millie

    I work as a Quality Engineer for an automotive supplier.

    The standards in place are actually really tough to adhere to, and really demanding.

    I know people who have also worked in the Aerospace sector, and the consensus is that the standards in place there are not as good as what applies to automotive.

    So if people worry about their cars being safe…..

  25. @RMJ, I don’t expect it’ll affect VI, but to describe it all as ‘untrue’ is a bit of a stretch, seeing as DC already essentially admitted the weed & coke & bullingdon stuff years ago. An interesting part of this is seeing some people state as fact that it’s either true or false; I want things to be so, therefore they are.
    What with the ‘coup’ ‘general’ and the ‘pig’ and Syria & the EU temporarily fusing….Lab couldn’t realistically hope for a better distracting start to Corbyns early days….assuming they’d rather his green cabinet had less attention than more, while they find their feet.

  26. WOOD
    @AC
    “Hard to justify the word ‘sex’, given neither Cameron nor the pig achieved gratification. Though Bismark may have”
    ____________

    I’ve seen photos of the late Count and it appears he was in pure ecstasy when holding the pig head for Cameron. ;-)

  27. CROSSBAT11

    “Do you think Cameron’s antics may upset both the Jewish and the Muslim communities”
    ___________

    Hahahahahahahahahahaahahahaha

  28. @CMJ

    You must excuse my ignorance of these matters, but I think what happens is that the software recognises an MOT test procedure and adjust things accordingly.

    For the record, I’m an atrocious driver, let alone understanding how motor vehicles actually work.

  29. PETE B

    I wonder where all our nuclear scientists and engineers have gone? We used to build our own, with our own money and our own designs.

    The problem isn’t a lack of scientists or engineers – we can always import those (though as a Kipper I’m not sure how you’d feel about that).

    The problem is that our Governments over the last 40ish years have decided that generating your own power is a terrible idea and that it’s much more efficient to pay another country’s state energy company more money instead.

  30. @ Roger Mexico

    It is even more interesting. It was a largish group in a pub discussing how to vote. The trouble is that I could talk to some in Hungarian, some in English, but for some the others had to translate.

    They were all KKE or Unity supporters (they described Syriza as a Eurocommunist party, which factually incorrect, but an interesting terminology – human faced socialism comes to my mind, and shows how differently ideologies evolve in different countries. They all argued (against me) that broad coalitions are wrong.). Some voted KKE back in the winter. They were deeply unhappy with their own party’s performance, and this was the main line of discussion (I really don’t want to cover it, because it was somewhat random, but they actually brought up all the main theoretical-practical problems of the communist movement since the WW2). They were convincing themselves that it was OK to vote for Syriza.

    And indeed the polls were decisive (that the ND was so close).This was the panacea for the calming of their soul to vote against the beliefs. They actually have no trust in Syriza, and they are quite convinced that it will split again soon, but there was no way that with their action or inaction they would help New Democracy.

    The age group was probably between mid 30s to early 60s, but it’s guessing. Social background: professional, entrepreneurial, civil service, a couple of skilled workers/charge hands.

  31. Re: Piggery pokery conspiracy theories

    I don’t think we should get carried away here.

    Ashcroft’s interest is that he was snubbed by Cameron and wanted to embarrass him. He started writing the book before the election on the assumption that Cameron would be out of Number 10 by now and was presumably thinking that he was writing the definitive epitaph. By publishing it anyway he’s getting a chance to take a bit of the shine off Cameron’s win.

    The Mail are running with it because Paul Dacre doesn’t like David Cameron and never has. Why it’s come to a head now is less clear. Perhaps now that the election is wrapped up and Labour have a leader the Mail don’t consider credible Dacre feels like he no longer has to support Cameron through gritted teeth. Perhaps Cameron’s (sort-of) willingness to take in a small number of refugees has enraged him. Perhaps he’s gearing up for a big battle over the EU renegotiations/referendum. Perhaps Cameron looked at him in the wrong way. Never underestimate Paul Dacre’s pettiness – he’s the pettiest man in journalism, which is saying something.

    The MP who put Ashy and Oaky onto the story will probably be some backbench Eurosceptic rather than anyone within arm’s length of the leadership.

  32. @ Allan

    While I don’t change my view about the refugee crisis, I change the wording and framing.

    As to the “young men should fight for their freedom” – well, imagine if the West had sent back that 120,000 fighting age men from Hungary in 1956: fight the Soviet Army …

    The whole debate rapidly polarises people, and the liberal argument is not better in this than the fascists. It’s very simple, really, if 1.5 million people start to move, you can’t stop them, unless you are willing to discard everything that constitutes the current moral, and they would move because rations are halved in the refugee camps (and to have a vision, just search for picture on Syrian refugee camp in Lebanon – just to have a proportion), and the never ending horror of the war. The German encouragement is only the cream on the cake.

    The EU has been incompetent, but mainly because for the member states it was purely a domestic issue and not a refugee question. That people haven’t seen Arabs in Eastern Europe (which is incorrect – Hungary has the most northern Muslim pilgrimage place), is neither here nor there (anyway, they don’t want Hungary, Slovakia, etc). It is about creating a nationalist fervour to suppress opposition to the ruling parties (certainly in Hungary and Slovakia) – simply because the opposition, by opposing the government support the refugees (and they are labelled traitors, even in parliament). The Catholic Church in Hungary issues anti-Islam propaganda material daily (while Caritas does some good work with the refugees, and the Pope speaks about various things), while the Serbian Orthodox Church invites Syrian Christians to speak against ISIS, the U.K., the US, and the refugees.

    just to put it into perspective: the Muslim population in Europe is 4%. If all the Syrian refugees come to Europe, and they were all faithful Muslims, it would increase to 5% …

    The simple thing is that the scale of destruction of material wealth and the cloth of society in those countries make the economic migrant and refugee distinction completely meaningless. They have to become economic migrant so that they could cease to be refugees, and they are refugees, because they can’t reproduce their life elsewhere.

  33. Oh, a long, measured and, in my view, logical answer to Allan ends up in moderation … It is really a shame, because I think it’s good :-)

  34. FUNTYPIPPIN

    Regardless of Ashcroft’s motives David Cameron should do the honorable thing and go. Labour are no threat to the Tories for the foreseeable future and George Osborne is more than capable of taking over as PM.

    How can we have a PM representing us on the World stage when pig-gate will be on the lips of everyone? The guy is a total embarrassment to us all. Sure we shouldn’t judge people in high public office for things they got up to at University but there has to be a line to what was acceptable and stuffing your private part into a pig head ain’t acceptable.

    I hope Corby brings this up tomorrow at PM’s Question time because I have sent him an email regarding pig-gate.

  35. LASZLO
    Oh, a long, measured and, in my view, logical answer to Allan ends up in moderation … It is really a shame, because I think it’s good :-)
    ________

    I didn’t see your reply but I’ll take you word for it. We both might not agree on everything but I know your posts are well thought out.

  36. Lazlo

    Your post has appeared, and you were right – it’s a good one, well worth reading.

  37. @AC
    “I hope Corby brings this up tomorrow at PM’s Question time because I have sent him an email regarding pig-gate.”

    I hope he doesn’t. For a start, it’s clearly nonsense. More importantly, there are issues about which the electorate expects the Opposition to hold the government to account and that isn’t one of them.

  38. He’d have a fair amount of difficultly bringing up at PMQs tomorrow as Parliament is in recess for the party conferences. No PMQs till October.

  39. @Allan

    I am quite happy for people to leave whatever daft stuff they did at University in the past.

    The coverage this story has got just shows to me how pathetic our political culture, through the media lens, has become.

    JC won’t mention it, as it doesn’t matter. Petty, silly nonsense stories aren’t his thing. The question that is critical is what was known about Lord Ashcroft’s tax status, and did DC say something officially that was knowingly wrong.

    If you really believe hog-gate is a resigning matter, then I hope the next PM has large box of paracetamol, given their halo will need to be that tight.

  40. @AW
    Good point!

    @Laszlo
    Good post!

  41. LASZLO

    A well thought out and written comment. I’m not that tuned up on Hungarian politics but most governments around the World will try and find a narrative to save their own bacon when the spotlight is on them and public opinion is against them.

    I don’t know if we can draw parallels with what happened in Europe decades ago with the current crises in Syria? I’ve no doubt thousands of people who have made it to Europe are genuine refugees fleeing persecution but who else is among them?

    And does it now mean that every time there is a conflict in an other country the EU will open the flood gates and welcome in the masses? Heaven forbid if war breaks out in Iran with a population of nearly 80 million, Croatia and Hungary will probably seek membership of the Russian Federation. ;-)
    ……
    “just to put it into perspective: the Muslim population in Europe is 4%. If all the Syrian refugees come to Europe, and they were all faithful Muslims, it would increase to 5%”
    ______

    I’ve never pointed to anything to do with the amount of Muslims in Europe and although 4% looks like a small number it will be a great deal higher in some of the Western European countries but my main points over the current refugee/migrant crises are 1 how many ISIS terrorists are we unknowingly letting in and 2 do we have an open door policy for future conflicts?

  42. RAF
    @AC

    “I hope he doesn’t. For a start, it’s clearly nonsense. More importantly, there are issues about which the electorate expects the Opposition to hold the government to account and that isn’t one of them”
    _____

    He has 6 questions, I’m not suggesting he uses all 6 on porky pig.

  43. ANTHONY WELLS
    He’d have a fair amount of difficultly bringing up at PMQs tomorrow as Parliament is in recess for the party conferences. No PMQs till October
    ______

    I forgot about the recess!! )-;

  44. LASZLO

    One point that Alan missed – it isn’t just about Syria. Someone upthread posted that only 20% of the ‘refugees’ are from Syria, the others are from Afghanistan, Eritrea, Pakistan and others.

  45. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “Good for you, on orgies it depends :-)”&

    ————

    Yep, you might have a point Howard: much depends on orgies…

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