ComRes and YouGov both had post-Corbyn polls in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and Sunday Times respectively. Tabs are here – Comres, YouGov.

ComRes had topline voting intention figures of CON 42% (+2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1). Changes are since their August poll and show no obvious impact from Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader.

YouGov had topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3%. YouGov haven’t released voting intention figures since May, but as you can see, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is barely changed from the election (the difference between the 12 point Tory lead in ComRes and the 8 point Tory lead in YouGov will be at least partially because ComRes have adopted their new socio-economic turnout model, which weights down younger and poorer voters who are historically less likely to vote. YouGov are still reviewing their methods post-election).

YouGov included some more questions about early attitudes towards Jeremy Corbyn. Most people don’t think he has much chance of being Prime Minister (only 14% think it’s likely), but beyond that attitudes are currently quite evenly divided. 30% think he’s strong enough to be a good leader, 41% think he is not.

36% of people agree with the description that Corbyn has dangerous and unworkable views and would be a threat to the economy and national security, but 32% agree with the description that he’s a man of integrity & principle who has caught the mood of people disillusioned by politics. 7% don’t agree with either, 6% agree with both (which is fair enough – one could be a decent and principled man with unworkable and dangerous views!).

YouGov also asked about a list of policies that have been supported by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell in the past, announced by Corbyn or floated as possible Labour policies. Again, they found a mixed bag. Some, like withdrawal from NATO, negotiating over the Falklands and abolishing the benefit cap are extremely unpopular, but other things like a higher top rate of tax, rent controls and nationalising the utility companies meet with wide public approval.

The rest of ComRes’s poll had bank of favourable/unfavourable opinion questions on leading politicians. Boris Johnson had the most favourable net score of those asked about with plus 8, followed by David Cameron on minus 7, Theresa May (minus 11), Vince Cable (minus 14), George Osborne (minus 17), Jeremy Corbyn (minus 18), Nicola Sturgeon (minus 19), Nick Clegg (minus 27).

Tom Watson actually had a comparatively good score – minus 8 – but on a low number of responses (71% said don’t know or no opinion), Tim Farron and John McDonnell got similarly high don’t knows, though more negative scores. At this stage, the public simply aren’t familiar enough with them to hold any strong positive or negative opinions.

UPDATE: I missed a third national GB poll, Opinium for the Observer. They had topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. Opinium also included a best PM question (Cameron 41%, Corbyn 22%) and had some figures on whether Labour under Corbyn could win that were a little more optimistic for them – 32% think Labour could definitely or probably win under Corbyn, 55% though they probably or definitely could not. Tabs are here.

345 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. Just to be clearer – a few days ago members of left wing fringes also churned my stomach.

  2. @Mark

    I fear you are failing to apply Ockham’s razor here, and are looking for complicated explanations when simple ones are more at hand.

    And what is simpler than (a) milord’s desire for revenge, combined with (b) Cameron’s pre-announced retirement in the course of this parliament, leaving him as one of the walking undead.

    This smacks to me of Milliband’s baconsarniegate: politically meaningless, but so memorable it will stick forever in the electorate’s (and more pertinently, the media’s) mind, and be resurrected at every possible turn.

  3. Mark,

    If I was being conspiratorial, I’d say it’s a means of ensuring that no smear story about Corbyn can ever be dismissed by someone on the left without them being shouted down as hypocrites. However, I don’t think that anyone involved is that cunning.

    My suspicion would be that Isabel Oakeshott heard a funny story, decided to put it into the biography, and had no idea that things would get so out of hand.

  4. And Cameron won’t be leading the Tories in 2020, but Labour have to have SOMEONE leading them (even if it’s not Corbyn) and it’s fairly easy to find something which matches comparable “standards” of proof.

    It’s at times like this I’m reminded that politics tends to make you a worse person.

  5. Bill Patrick

    I suggest that you read today’s extract in the Mail.

  6. Old Nat,

    Thanks, but I’ve already done it, and spent all too much of the day sighing at the inability of anyone I know to avoid being a hypocrite on one side or the other of the issue.

  7. Bill Patrick

    Reading it as a historical document was quite interesting (as opposed to the actual content!)

    It clearly isn’t simple reportage, so looking at the motivation of writing it seemed more useful.

    Is the author biased? (Hardly needed answering, that one!)
    What message(s) is the piece intended to convey – and who to?
    Who will be damaged, and who will benefit (in political terms) from publication
    etc etc

    The porcine allusion provided the publicity – the “hook” in scripwriting terms – though I doubt it was ever intended to be more than that.

    We would need to see more collateral evidence from other sources to confirm if this is part of a campaign to determine the next Tory leader or not, but Ashcroft is no fool, so I doubt that it is just part of some fleeting wish to be a gossip monger.

  8. Old Nat,

    My theory (not entirely original) is that Ashcroft is a huge Hunter S. Thompson fan.

  9. I also note that Isabel Oakeshott already seems to be a bit worried about how things have gotten out of hand. She’s now apparently onto “We’ve left people to decide for themselves if it’s true.” Which is the equivalent of saying “I’m just asking questions.”

  10. At least we now know how YouGov have phrased the question about Cameron and (presumably) the pig.

    “The Daily Mail has published new allegations that David Cameron was involved in debauched behaviour during his time at Oxford University. Does this matter to you?”

    On the other hand, it may be that YG staff consider pig sticking absolutely normal behaviour, and are referring to something else entirely.

  11. Actually, looking more closely at that YG question, it may well be asking “Does it matter to you that Cameron was at OXFORD University?”

    Are we looking at a potential Cambridge coup [1] here?

    [1] In the famous case of the Turra Coo – there was no suggestion of sexual impropriety.

  12. Isabel Oakeshott does seem to get into the thick of controversy. She was the one who went out of her way to befriend Vicky Price … which resulted in both Vicky Price, and her ex-husband Chris Huhne serving prison sentences and the defrocking of a black, female judge.

    I don’t care for any of these people or David Cameron but I have enormous sympathy for their children. How on earth would one explain to an 11y old girl, the pig-story going around about her father?


    My suspicion would be that Isabel Oakeshott heard a funny story, decided to put it into the biography, and had no idea that things would get so out of hand.

    That would be logical assumption and it’s rather backed up by the “Doesn’t everyone do that sort of thing at Uni?” remarks from certain parts of the media. But that in itself explains why the story is likely to be more than a passing twitterstorm[1].

    Because of course most people don’t, and it links Cameron yet again to the world of people who are ‘not like us’. The sort of people who can get away with doing things that other people would suffer the consequences of. It ties in completely with the image that people already have of him and that’s what makes the story so plausible and so damaging.

    I don’t however think it is a Cunning Plan, because the two obvious beneficiaries are Osborne and Johnson and both those are not only vulnerable to the same sort of ‘not like us’ charge, but were associates of Cameron at the time. So even if they didn’t engage in porcine capers, they will be suspected of the equivalent. And frankly there’s enough rumours going around about both to provide similar hours of fun.

    [1] Apart from the fact that it is one of those things that are just very, very funny in a large number of unexplainable ways

  14. Laszlo

    Eventually they made a vote and agreed to vote for Syriza, even though very unwillingly. I don’t know how common it was, but seems to have had an effect

    That’s interesting. Did the discussion mention the closeness of the polls and was that one of the reasons for continuing to vote for SYRIZA? (Though I suspect abstention was also being seen as an option). As I said I reckon that may have been what stopped LAE getting over 3%.

    The over-rating of ND is just as much of a mystery though as SYRIZA being too low (they seem to have got the other Parties reasonably close). It’s either structural or to do with conservative voters still unable to vote for their traditional Party because they see it as causing the mess and still corrupt. During the crisis in the Summer, ND’s support dropped to favour SYRIZA though most of this went back, maybe reluctantly. This distaste may also explain the increase of the EK vote to get them into Parliament for the first time. I also wonder if Meimarakis’s aggressive style may have put some people off.

    There was little movement in the election from January, but what there was (the rise of EK, the flow-back of votes from Potami to PASOK) seems to have gone unexplored. The Guardian seems to contented itself with endless “OMG Scary Nazis!” stories about the non-rise of Golden Dawn.

  15. Syzygy

    Well times have changed since my young day.

    Although “everyone” (ie the Press and politicians) knew that my MP Bob Boothby [1] was screwing Harold McMillan’s wife and Ronnie Kray [2] (among others), the Press were careful not to publish these facts to his constituents (or the 3 children he fathered outwith his marriages).

    In more prosaic terms, my kids went to the school where I was Depute Head. Some dreadful things were said about me to them (some might even have been true! :-) ) They survived.

    I’d guess that Cameron’s kids (like other notable folk) have been well prepared to deal with such stories.

    There is probably some happy medium between the zealous over-protection of the rich and powerful that used to exist, and today’s zealous publication of any hint or rumour of salaciousness or corruption that can be used to attack a political enemy.

    So how do you frame the regulations to achieve that?

    [1] Boothby also went to Oxford University, which seemed to be an orgy-fest experience for aspiring Tory ( and Lab & LD) politicians.

    [2] One of the little known facts about Ronnie was that, when arrested, by a Met policeman (who later became the partner of one of my gay friends) Ronnie literally shat himself. How do you explain that, to one of those that glorify the London East End criminal fraternity?

  16. You can’t really blame peeps for cramming in a few orgies, ‘cos time is so short: at Oxford the terms are only eight weeks long…


    @”My suspicion would be that Isabel Oakeshott heard a funny story, decided to put it into the biography, and had no idea that things would get so out of hand.”

    Apparently she told C4 that she & Ashcroft didn’t say it was true-they just reported what a source told them.

    ……… once again the DM headlines totally unsubstantiated slurs & innuendo about a Labour politician to fill its gutter soaked pages …………..

  18. I want to make it clear that from my experience of Oxford, getting it on with a decapitated animal is not a normal student activity. There is something I never thought I’d write.

  19. If it isn’t true, then the Number 10 press office need to sharpen their act. They have been giving very typical non-denial denials without categorically dismissing the specific allegation from what I have seen.

  20. From a polling perspective, it will be interesting to see how many voters believe the story (and their partisan makeup) and whether they are bothered as far as approval ratings are concerned. After all, if true it goes well beyond a cigar and stained dress.

  21. With the Balkan states giving up on processing thousands of migrants who have no interest in asking them for asylum, Austria is now in the front line of a corridor leading to their border.-and the final entry to Germany.

    So it is instructive to head Interior Minister Mikl-Leitner finally conclude that most of these people are “opportunists”. Of course such words are greeted with howls of anger by the Left. But the countries who are coping with this tide of humanity can see more clearly than even we can from tv reportage-that the vast majority of these people are economic migrants .

    And the EU statistics showing that only 20% of them are Syrians confirms Leitner’s view.
    The focus is now well and truly on Merkel & her crazy invitation to those who could afford it, to come to Germany-because the external borders of the EU are as porous as those inside it.

    She is single-handedly stoking the VI of the far right.

  22. @Phil Haines

    Many thanks for yesterday’s in depth account of Labour’s problems re: SNP (3.05 p.m.) The only issue you didn’t deem to deal with was the negative effect on Labour in Scotland of the line that there should be no deal under any circumstances with the SNP. This was portrayed north of the border as meaning ‘No matter how the Scots vote, it doesn’t matter to us’ – and that was death for Labour in Scotland. Of course, had Douglas Alexander been listened to a couple of months earlier then things might have turned out differently. But hindsight is a wonderful thing!

    My own view is known to some here: what served very well for two hundred and fifty years after a very bumpy start (so c. 1720 – 1970) is no longer serving anybody well and ought to come to an end.

  23. The polling aspect to call me dave is the decision by milord to publish his constituency figures Cchq seems to think he shouldnt have done this -this seems to be becos they wanted access kept to themselves.Not sure how accurate those polls turned out to be -or of any public analysis of that.

    This obviously raises the question as to whether there is polling ,attached to standard contracts ,which finds it way to a political party under the radar as it where.A way of financing a political campaign without appearing to do it.A sort of a public private poll.

    Not expecting an answer by the way !!

  24. Re piggate – as others have noted, No 10 could have chosen to issue an absolute and outright denial, but haven’t. Such a denial would quite possibly have prevented the wider circulation of the story, as editors fear libel actions.

    Were this denial linked to a solicitors letter requesting a retraction in the light of the false allegations, and there was indeed no evidence that could be aired publicly, then the story would in all likelihood have been withdrawn.

    As there have not been denials or the involvement of legal advisors, it’s reasonable to assume that either the allegations cannot be refuted (eg that there is indeed, some hard evidence available) or that No 10 have decided that while these specific allegations are untrue, to fight them publicly would involve the examination of past behaviours in a public forum that would end up being just as damaging as the false allegations themselves.

  25. @Colin – “So it is instructive to head Interior Minister Mikl-Leitner finally conclude that most of these people are “opportunists”. Of course such words are greeted with howls of anger by the Left.”

    Not so fast, Colin. In this household of the left, we have been deeply dismayed by the entire sorry process. The interchanging of ‘migrant’ and ‘refugee’ by the media has been dismaying, and Mrs A and I have been regularly angered by journalistic statements about the crowds of ‘refugees’. How do they know they are refugees? Have the news organisations established a processing centre and classified all those individuals?

    Last night, the BBC featured a short interview with a man who had travelled across Europe for 10 days to reach safety. His main concern was that he had left his children behind and hadn’t been able to contact them. Pardon me, but if I was fleeing a war, I rather think I’d scoop up my kids and bring them with me, instead of leaving them behind to face their fate.

    I may sound a little harsh, but I actually think that Cameron has the correct approach here, albeit on far too small a scale. The UK is funding refugee camps and taking people from these camps surrounding the war zones. These people are almost certainly genuine refugees, without the finance or ability to buy tickets or pay people smugglers. We are offering them sanctuary for up to 5 years, after which presumably many will return, if the war is over.

    Many of the migrants we are seeing will be refugees, but many will not be, and distinguishing between the categories is going to be very difficult.

    The UK is the largest single funder for the refugee camps, although it still isn’t sufficient in my view. The motivation for most of the migrants heading towards Europe does not appear to be one of seeking sanctuary, as this can be achieved ‘relatively’ easily in countries far closer to their own. The primary motivation appears to be seeking wealthy countries in which to work and earn. Nothing in itself wrong with that, but the need to regulate flows of migrants and resettlement programmes then begins to trump the desire to assist the migrants, whereas for the refugees, we look after them first, and then work out how our societies deal with the backwash after that.

  26. As denials go ” we do not recognise these allegations ” must be one of those right up there with ” I cannot foresee the circumstances in which I will contest the leadership” :-)

  27. @ Omnishambles

    This isn’t the place to discuss if we should or shouldn’t have a deterrent, everyone has their own opinion. However people should be clear that there are only 2 real options. One-for-one replacement of the Vanguard class subs or just don’t bother at all.

    That’s the conclusion which I’ve also reached (so far, anyway) having seen the other options which have been suggested.

  28. Like most people, I have always thought of Merkel as an impressive politician, who can be relied upon to steer a steady ship.

    Then we have the chronic mishandling of the Greek crisis, followed by a startlingly inept response to the migrant issue.

    Meanwhile, Cameron’s response to the refugees/migrants is looking more and more intelligent and measured as the days pass.

  29. @ALEC

    I think the British PM just doesn’t want to fight a libel case (how does he even value the affect firstly) with the British Press and certainly not on whether he put his apples in its mouth.

    Its starting to feel like a bit of a laugh at the PM from the other papers; The Sun’s ‘PM was embarrassed to be with people snorting coke’ does this quite nicely, hes just been caught in the wrong place and people always like laughing at politicians.

    Its good for Labour in that it detracts from them and breaks down the Tory statesman angle. Cobyrn would do well to take a dig at Ashcroft and specifically around people with money seeking to influence politics – for me its quite clear the Tory MP telling jokes is probably Boris Johnston – Ashcroft has left himself open for attack and if Labour press I think they can make it all look a bit sleazy, will look ‘ok’ for Cameron but the Tory party brand might be rubbed off on for at least the short term.

  30. I see the usual suspects are spending a lot of time talking about pigs. I find it really surprising to find so many who post here also read the DM. I must say the general tone of the site has fallen to a new low.

  31. It’s impossible to discuss these rumours while maintaining decorum, but it is the sort of thing that isn’t going to go away any time soon.

    As I have stated elsewhere, I think Cameron has gotten of lightly as everyone is focusing on the funny but ultimately harmless pig stuff and is glossing over the serious corruption allegations.

  32. @ToH

    Well as you would expect, I’ve avoided the matter. (Hope orgies are OK tho’…)


    Good for you, on orgies it depends :-)

  34. @ Pete B: “I wonder where all our nuclear scientists and engineers have gone? We used to build our own, with our own money and our own designs.”

    That’s why I think the Chinese reactor plan is politically fraught. Having to turn to them for a reactor, when we used to be world leaders in this technology, encapsulates the ultimate outcome of replacing a state-led effort with a market-led energy policy. The CEGB had a coherent plan for an ongoing nuclear programme; if it hadn’t been abandoned post-’79, we would presumably by now be building the successor to AGRs and maybe even exporting them to China….

    I don’t think you have to be of the loony left to see that some areas of activity are more effectively carried out on the basis of national or public interest than the profit motive (anyone who doubts this should contemplate the outsourcing of our defence to Serco or G4S).

  35. ALEC

    Thanks-a good post.

    Happy to exclude you ( temporarily) from the ranks of The Left ( for this purpose)

    One of the biggest groups on the EU list were Albanians !!

    I saw tv footage of a punch up between Syrians & Afghans somewhere on the Silk Road to Germany. The former were accusing the latter of “exploitation” .

  36. Somerjohn
    There’s a lot in that. I don’t necessarily agree with nationalisation, but allowing foreign powers to own our power stations does seem a bit short-sighted.
    I can just imagine some future negotiation where the Chinese representative just has to hint that they might have to temporarily shut down their reactor if we don’t agree to whatever they are negotiating about.

  37. ALEC
    re piggate-you obviously missed this snippet from a Guardian article :–
    “……….what seems to be a standard piece of political wisdom, attributed by Hunter S Thompson to Lyndon Johnson, in which a politician smears a rival by falsely “calling him a p**-****er” in order to “make the sonofabitch deny it”.
    Perhaps that is why DC isn’t denying it. If he does, then the story will be broken into its constituent parts & he will be asked-which bit are you denying-and so on ad infinitum.


    @” We used to build our own, with our own money and our own designs.”

    Yep-before our then government sold Westinghouse to Toshiba in 2006.( a result of BNFL ” restructuring”)

    Wiki describes Westinghouse as “Westinghouse builds and operates approximately one-half of the world’s operating nuclear plants. Westinghouse’s world headquarters are located in the Pittsburgh suburb of Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania. Toshiba Group is the majority owner of Westinghouse.”

  39. Pete B

    Yes, but it’s the way this fits into the current political scene that interests me. Is it possible we’re at one of those tipping points (or paradigm shifts, I suppose) where attitudes suddenly change? They seem to come along every 30-40 years: the rejection of Churchill in ’45 was one such; the rejection of statism in favour of market-led solutions (aka Thatcherism) was another.

    Corbyn probably isn’t the right man to lead the charge, but I wonder if the rejection by the Labour electorship of the ‘business as usual’ alternatives is symptomatic of a wider yearning for a more communitarian way of running things.

    Another example of our sad industrial decline that comes to mind is the rather embarrassing celebration of the return of locomotive manufacturing to the North East, where it started, courtesy of Hitachi who will be assembling their Japanese-designed locomotives there. We used to do that sort of thing in India, shipping our cast-off assembly lines out there to build obsolete models like the Hindustan Ambassador, based on the series III Morris Oxford. Now, of course, the Indians own Jaguar Land Rover.

  40. @ Oldnat

    Thanks for your reply which was kindly. I was just really thinking specifically about the vulnerability of an 11y old girl who is both too old and too young.

    In essence, I want the life-styles of our leaders exposed but I am repulsed by the journalists who do the muck-raking.

    I think you are onto something in suggesting that
    Lord Ashcroft’s intention is more generic than just DC. Osborne and the other Bullingdon boys are similarly likely to be smeared.

  41. @Alec
    “I may sound a little harsh, but I actually think that Cameron has the correct approach here, albeit on far too small a scale.”

    I tend to agree with you including regarding the scale although let’s not forget also that those dealing with the problem locally cite the failure to offer proper Exchequer funding to local authorities who are actually the bodies left to cope even on the current minimal scale. It’s a case of the substance undermining the gloss.

    I have no problem with the UK accepting large numbers of people from outside the EU, given humanitarian considerations and also that these flows are to a large extent a consequence from a series of foreign policy mistakes to which this country was party to and which have resulted in a series of failed states.

    What I do have difficulty with is the massive flow of economic migrants from properly functioning states in Eastern Europe, to which we have no humanitarian or moral obligations, only obligations under flawed EU law allowing unrestrained movement. This has been on such a large, rapid and uncontrolled scale as to cause a quite reasonable reaction from UK residents, which has poisoned public attitudes against anyone seeking to come here.

    Ironically, those same Eastern European states are now leading the efforts within the EU to frustrate quotas which would compel them to themselves accept their responsibility towards migrants from outside the EU.

  42. Somerjohn
    “We used to do that sort of thing in India, shipping our cast-off assembly lines out there to build obsolete models like the Hindustan Ambassador, based on the series III Morris Oxford. Now, of course, the Indians own Jaguar Land Rover.”

    Stretching your analogy a bit further, perhaps that gives us hope that that we will one day own some of the big Chinese firms.

    On the general point of manufacturing decline, I found this:
    “A 2009 report from PricewaterhouseCoopers, citing data from the UK Office for National Statistics, stated that manufacturing output (gross value added at 2007 prices) has increased in 35 of the 50 years between 1958 and 2007, and output in 2007 was at record levels, approximately double that in 1958.”

    Admittedly this is only up to 2007, but it does seem that the death of manufacturing has been exeggerated.

    Anyway, we’re getting a bit away from the polls. I wonder when the next one is expected. I can imagine that someone might commission a poll to see if the latest book about Cameron has had any effect on VI.

  43. “Perhaps that is why DC isn’t denying it. If he does, then the story will be broken into its constituent parts & he will be asked-which bit are you denying-and so on ad infinitum.”

    Agreed. Mixing up some allegations that are probably true (that Cameron did drugs at university) with those that are outrageous and probably false (that he put “a private part” into a pig’s head) is a clever way of shutting down a possible response.

  44. As to who benefits most from the story, people on Political Betting have been mentioning Sajid Javid. In the long run, assuming rational leader choice by the Tories (an assumption with mixed evidence behind it!) I think Javid will be the next leader. What he lacks in charisma, he makes up for with a very good story to tell, an apparently good brain, and breaking with the recent mold of high-profile Tories.

  45. However, as someone who would be running on competance not charisma, he needs time to build up a track record, while some of his rivals (Theresa May in particular) need Cameron to stand down in the next two years or so. If Cameron stays on to 2018-2019, I think Javid has a very good chance,

  46. Somerjohn

    That is bit unfair on India which did (and still does to a slightly lesser degree) go for a technology transfer/import substitution policy.

    The Hindustani Ambassador is no longer in production, but the one I travelled in Delhi was gas powered (like most Indian city cars) which led to a very incongruous scene when the taxi stopped off for fuel.

  47. LASZLO

    No country in in Europe has an exemplary record when it comes to treating minorities.
    “And while you have a jolly banter here, you should see how quickly, not accidentally, fascism is rising all over in Eastern Europe. It is the proper one. If you underestimate it, you are betting your life”

    I agree and that’s why I said in my post that the current migrant problem will lead to disaster. A lot of people in the Eastern European countries have probably never seen an Arab before then suddenly they are seeing hundreds and thousands of them swarming towards their border and onto Germany to seek a better life than they themselves can only dream about but are prevented because of EU red tape.

    But do you know what really bugs me about this whole migrant baloney!! We can have a scenario where British troops are sent back into Afghanistan and even Syria (if the Russians allow us) to fight IS and others and meanwhile when our troops are being shot at and killed, back in the UK thousands of fit Syrian men will be lounging about on our streets expecting handouts and being rehoused.

    It is very convenient for them to say they are fleeing Assad, surely they are not all fleeing Assad but fleeing a call up from the rebels to fight Assad as well?

    I’m sorry but each day my opinion is changing over the migrant issue because the people who are in a poor state and can not get to the EU (the people who really do need help) are stuck in camps or other parts of Syria.

  48. Meant to say..

    Good morning all from a sunny and little breezy Mount Florida.

  49. Hawthorn: “That is bit unfair on India which did (and still does to a slightly lesser degree) go for a technology transfer/import substitution policy.”

    I didn’t mean to slight India. Far from it, as I think it’s admirable to progress from making do with colonial cast-offs to owning (and making a huge success of it, where the Germans and Americans had failed) a big chunk of the UK car industry.

    There’s a lot to be said for an import substitution policy. We seem to have pursued the opposite course of replacing domestic production with imports.

    As to the apparent growth of UK manufacturing output; well, yes, but that’s in the context of manufacturing growing vastly faster elsewhere. Off the top of my head, in the last 50 years the share of manufacturing in UK GDP has fallen from over 50% to something like 11%.

    BTW, I like vastly faster: sounds like a Hitchhiker’s Guide character, or a Terry Thomas character.

  50. Always dangerous to produce stats off the top of your head. The ONS says manufacturing share of UK GDP was 27% in 1978 and 10% in 2012.

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