ComRes and YouGov both had post-Corbyn polls in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and Sunday Times respectively. Tabs are here – Comres, YouGov.

ComRes had topline voting intention figures of CON 42% (+2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1). Changes are since their August poll and show no obvious impact from Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader.

YouGov had topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3%. YouGov haven’t released voting intention figures since May, but as you can see, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is barely changed from the election (the difference between the 12 point Tory lead in ComRes and the 8 point Tory lead in YouGov will be at least partially because ComRes have adopted their new socio-economic turnout model, which weights down younger and poorer voters who are historically less likely to vote. YouGov are still reviewing their methods post-election).

YouGov included some more questions about early attitudes towards Jeremy Corbyn. Most people don’t think he has much chance of being Prime Minister (only 14% think it’s likely), but beyond that attitudes are currently quite evenly divided. 30% think he’s strong enough to be a good leader, 41% think he is not.

36% of people agree with the description that Corbyn has dangerous and unworkable views and would be a threat to the economy and national security, but 32% agree with the description that he’s a man of integrity & principle who has caught the mood of people disillusioned by politics. 7% don’t agree with either, 6% agree with both (which is fair enough – one could be a decent and principled man with unworkable and dangerous views!).

YouGov also asked about a list of policies that have been supported by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell in the past, announced by Corbyn or floated as possible Labour policies. Again, they found a mixed bag. Some, like withdrawal from NATO, negotiating over the Falklands and abolishing the benefit cap are extremely unpopular, but other things like a higher top rate of tax, rent controls and nationalising the utility companies meet with wide public approval.

The rest of ComRes’s poll had bank of favourable/unfavourable opinion questions on leading politicians. Boris Johnson had the most favourable net score of those asked about with plus 8, followed by David Cameron on minus 7, Theresa May (minus 11), Vince Cable (minus 14), George Osborne (minus 17), Jeremy Corbyn (minus 18), Nicola Sturgeon (minus 19), Nick Clegg (minus 27).

Tom Watson actually had a comparatively good score – minus 8 – but on a low number of responses (71% said don’t know or no opinion), Tim Farron and John McDonnell got similarly high don’t knows, though more negative scores. At this stage, the public simply aren’t familiar enough with them to hold any strong positive or negative opinions.

UPDATE: I missed a third national GB poll, Opinium for the Observer. They had topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. Opinium also included a best PM question (Cameron 41%, Corbyn 22%) and had some figures on whether Labour under Corbyn could win that were a little more optimistic for them – 32% think Labour could definitely or probably win under Corbyn, 55% though they probably or definitely could not. Tabs are here.


345 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. PHIL HAINES
    An interesting post on the effect of the SNP “threat” on the result of the election, but in my view incorrect.
    I think the election result was clear 3-4 years out when the polls made it clear that a) EM was not Prime Minister material and b) Labour could not be trusted to run the economy. It was these factors which enabled me and a small number of other commentators to forecast the result correctly, as a small Tory majority. IMO all the SNP “threat did “ was encourage the Tory Central Office and give them a story, while at the same time discouraging Labour. Subsequently it has been used as an excuse as to why Labour lost.

  2. PHIL HAines

    Sorry for the double post, I had a computer problem.

  3. @ Phil Haines

    Ed Balls is always taking the rap, but he was surely right over HS2. Had Miliband followed his advice and come out against it, then Labour would have had instant economic credibility at a critical time in the run-up to the GE.

    I was very surprised that Labour missed such an open goal.

    Corbyn is against HS2, and if he can combine with the SNP and some dissident Tories, then there is a good chance he can defeat the ill-starred project.

    I note that there is big trouble brewing over the Euston terminal, and all the signs are there that the proposal is already running out of control.

  4. MILLIE

    I must say I would’t mind if HS2 was scrapped although the money should then be used on other ways of better connecting the North with the South East.

  5. @millie

    “Corbyn is against HS2, and if he can combine with the SNP and some dissident Tories, then there is a good chance he can defeat the ill-starred project.”

    Just because Corbyn is against something you can’t assume Labour, or even most of Labour, will unite behind him. A rebel will inspire rebellions. I think it will be very difficult to kill HS2 at this point.

  6. @TOH

    In the post election anaysis programme from Nuffield college Geoff Evans made exactly the same point, that with hindsight the election was totaly predictable if one ignored headline VI and instead looked at things like who was ahead on the economy and prefered leader
    Peter Kellner made the same point, saying you could be behind on one or the other but not both.

  7. @Jack Sheldon

    Whilst I agree that most of us have probably done the odd strange thing from time to time in our youth, I’ll be amazed if there’s anyone else that has stuck their todger in the mouth of a dead pig.

    If you can prove me wrong though…..

  8. Millie

    Are you so sure Corbyn is against HS2? He’s appointed a pro HS2 shadow transport secretary (Lilian Greenwood) and I quote directly from his transport policy statement:

    ‘Stimulate the economy by increasing investment in new high speed rail, creating jobs and connecting more towns and cities’ https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/jeremyforlabour/pages/153/attachments/original/1439891675/Railways_JeremyCorbyn.pdf?1439891675

    We already know that the SNP are massively in favour of HS2 and are developing plans together with the UK government to develop a HS line in Scotland which will provide a link to HS2. So why would they vote against it?

  9. @shelts

    David Cameron claims he had a fairly normal student existence

    .. clearly you haven’t lived! :-)

  10. FWIW one of my first comments on this site about a year ago was that Labour should come out against HS2. I seem to recall that at the time most peeps here said it would make no difference to Labours VI and might actually make it worse. I think we can all agree most of us got something wrong in the run up the last GE.

  11. @rivers10

    I think Labour did the right thing in supporting HS2 last time round. They have quite a few constituencies in the Midlands area that will see benefit from HS2. Lots of marginal constituencies there.

  12. Shelts,

    I once got through a bottle of Bacardi in about 90 minutes, was taken home by my friend, spent the night vomiting and then went canvassing with Tom Watson at 10 the next morning, but livestock was a bit far.

  13. @Shelts

    ” I’ll be amazed if there’s anyone else that has stuck their todger in the mouth of a dead pig.”

    Now, I’ve read many a thing on UKPR over the years, but this quote may well be the most bizarre of them all! Todgers and dead pigs, all brought to our attention by the master of polling himself, Lord Ashcroft. His book, and the Mail’s titillating, drip by drip, serialisation of it, promises to be utterly hilarious over the coming days.

    From a purely political point of view, I can’t see it doing much lasting damage to “Call me Dave”, although the non-dom status angle may have legs, but what a source of ridicule this provides to his opponents. Cameron is a master of mockery, some of it snide, some of it quite witty, but I think Ashcroft’s lurid revelations, even if untrue or unsubstantiated, may lead to him having to take some in return now.

    I look forward to Ed Miliband’s next intervention in the house. “Mr Speaker, some people have claimed I made a pig’s ear of my leadership but, in comparison to the Proime Minister, my association with pigs was purely metaphorical.”

    You get the drift. The Good Lord has shafted him royally, I think.

  14. Well that’s shut evrybody up! I’ve got about 25 incredibly witty replies here, but I don’t think this is the right forum.

    I wonder when the next poll’s due?

  15. @crossbat11
    “Cameron is a master of mockery, some of it snide, some of it quite witty, but I think Ashcroft’s lurid revelations, even if untrue or unsubstantiated, may lead to him having to take some in return now.”

    Like most people I would love to see Corbyn open the next dozen P M Qs by laying down some dead pig banter, but I don’t think he’s that kind of politician. Truly, Labour have been short-changed.

  16. @pete b

    “I wonder when the next poll’s due?”

    I’m not sure, but I hope the public have stopped using polls to tell PORKies

  17. Piggate has made the front pages in Scotland the Daily Record has pigs & Cameron in a Vow type front page – but the funniest is The National with a country scene headlined ‘Cameron Stays Silent Hoping It all blows over’ in the sky there’s a flying pig.

  18. @Crossbat11

    “From a purely political point of view, I can’t see it doing much lasting damage to “Call me Dave”, although the non-dom status angle may have legs, but what a source of ridicule this provides to his opponents.”

    I must admit to amusment over all this, but the question that comes to mind is why is the Daily Mail running this ?

    Is the the opening shots in an attempt to discredit Cameron before the forthcoming EU referendum?

    It could get a lot more serious.

  19. @Omnishambles: “I think it will be very difficult to kill HS2 at this point.”

    Probably so, but it might still be possible to reverse the direction of construction. Starting in Leeds and Manchester and getting as far as Birmingham, and at the same time heading north to Edinburgh and Glasgow. That would be popular with Tories in the consequently HS2-free Chilterns, and the spending would be done where it had the most economic benefit and faced the least opposition. And for once, the South East wouldn’t be getting the bulk of infrastructure spending. I offer this free of charge to Corbyn…

  20. Osborne this morning was talking about spending three quarters of a billion pounds on Birmingham New Street station. Then he gave the Chineses two billion pounds to rip off UK energy users. Corbyn must be absolutely delighted. Still the chances of a Chinese nuclear power plant in Europe must be about as high as Uruguay winning the Rugby World Cup.

  21. JONATHAN FREWEN

    When will you update your basic GB Swingometer please AW?! @europeanhigh

    I suspect he’s not going to. The problem is that Scotland is now such a different political world that applying the same swing across all of GB is just meaningless. Updating the Advanced Swingometer would be more meaningful (it accepts separate polls for Scotland and Wales and then calculates England from a GB one). But even that relies on the concept of Uniform National Swing applying in each of the three national portions of GB individually and I suspect Mr Wells and many other pollsters are also re-examining that as a model.

    Similarly Anthony’s Poll of polls has disappeared because there simply haven’t been enough of them around to make his model work (I know you didn’t ask but others have).

  22. @Interested

    My understanding is that the SNP are at best lukewarm over HS2.

    Balls’ enthusiasm for a northern powerhouse rail ‘superlink’ made much more sense and was hugely cheaper. The Euston issues are all but insurmountable, it seems.

    But I agree with Omnishambles that the prospect of Corbyn delivering a solid Labour vote on anything is somewhat fanciful.

    With regard to Corbyn, I endorse Crossbat’s position which is that it is too early to tell, and we must wait and see. But he is giving the impression of a lottery winner who is beginning to appreciate that there may be problems and hassle coming soon. We forget that he has spent forty years in politics without the slightest prospect or expectation of wielding any power, and he now has it very unexpectedly. I doubt that he can possibly be prepared for it. Now, he might respond well, but so far he looks dazed and inadequate. The worst sign is that I truly feel sorry for him.

  23. @Millie

    Labour’s biggest issue is the fact the PLP seem to be in denial to the fact that outside the membership of 232 MPs in Westminster, the Labour Party as a whole totally rejected the non-Corbyn candidates.

    It appears to me that most of the PLP looks more happy to stand back, let Corbyn fail and have a divided party than accept the decision of the members and get on with supporting and backing Corbyn.

    They are free to do this, but folk don’t vote for such divided parties. In addition, MPs win elections on the backs of activists. If they annoy the activists in their CLPs, they will lose the battle on the doorstep in May 2020.

  24. @CB11

    “From a purely political point of view, I can’t see it doing much lasting damage to “Call me Dave””

    On the other hand, if he stays on as PM the damage to the UK will be colossal. He will have zero credibility (especially with Israel and Islamic states). Think Berlusconi and square it.

  25. On HS2 – it will struggle to proceed without Labour support. They’ve made Lilian Greenwood, who was certainly a strong supporter of HS2 in her previous capacity as a junior transport spokesperson, shadow Transport Secretary so I doubt it will become Labour policy to oppose it. But they could well call a free vote which could mean a defeat for the government. The hybrid bill process means that if it does get defeated at third reading a monumental amount of money and parliamentary time will already have been wasted. Heathrow expansion could be a very similar situation.

    On a completely different subject, I do think these headlines are inconvenient for Cameron and the Tories. At the moment they are trying to play on their reputation for sanity and competence vis-a-vis Corbyn and they certainly won’t help that. Furthermore, if the Daily Mail and the Sun weren’t running Cameron headlines they’d probably have some juicy JC/McDonnell stuff instead.

  26. Good evening all from Giffnock.

    Not much of a Corby bounce in the polls. I’m trying to think of a question to send ole Corby to ask DC at P-M-Q’s this Wednesday.

    On the swarms shuffling up through the ranks of the Balkans, I totally agree with the Hungarian PM when he says the powers at be in Brussels are making the situation worse by calling illegal economic migrants “refugees”

    I feel sorry for a poor innocent Croatian pig farmer tending to his pigs then in the next moment 7,000 crazies have descended onto his pig farm.

    It’s getting beyond a joke and if Germany is so keen to balance its demographics then why don’t they offer direct flights from Turkey and Greece for the migrants?

    David Cameron in my view is doing the correct thing and that’s taking refugees (people who really need help) direct from the camps. Having hundreds and thousands of migrants screaming and terrorizing rural communities in the Balkans will only lead to disaster.

  27. @CMJ
    “They are free to do this, but folk don’t vote for such divided parties. In addition, MPs win elections on the backs of activists. If they annoy the activists in their CLPs, they will lose the battle on the doorstep in May 2020.”

    Much earlier than that, methinks. Take renewal of Trident for example. The LDs have been smart and gone for pursuing a cheaper option – and hence will vote against renewal whilst also maintaining a nuclear deterrent. If many in the PLP decide regardless to back the government option they will find themselves very isolated.

  28. @RAF

    If any do cross the floor, I hope they do the decent thing (as hopefully MPs from all parties would do) and resign their seat and stand for their new party.

    Mark Reckless and Douglas Carswell did this, and I hope this set the standard for the future.

  29. @Catmanjeff

    I would imagine that Carswell and Reckless have established a convention. The effect of it may, however, be to ensure that crossing the floor hardly ever happens because potential switchers might be put off by the knowledge that a by-election could be impossibly difficult to win.

    @Raf

    I imagine that if a vote to renew Trident comes before the House the LDs will abstain on the main question (having put down an amendment that may or may not be called).

  30. Allan Christie
    Totally agree about the migrants, and that the government’s approach is sensible, though of course we can debate how many we should take.
    Though the media tend to focus on the mothers with children, when crowd shots are shown it is striking how many are young men who appear to be healthy, well-fed and well dressed (by modern standards). Hardly the usual image of a refugee. And with such huge numbers it is certain that at least a few have been sent by ISIS to foment trouble.
    I also see that it’s been announced that people will not need to offer spare bedrooms for refugees because the councils will provide homes for them. I wonder how that will go down with the homeless in this country, or those on a waiting list for their own home?
    It will be interesting to see if any polls ask questions about this situation. The obvious prediction is that it will help UKIP, but who knows?

  31. @ RAF

    Much earlier than that, methinks. Take renewal of Trident for example. The LDs have been smart and gone for pursuing a cheaper option – and hence will vote against renewal whilst also maintaining a nuclear deterrent. If many in the PLP decide regardless to back the government option they will find themselves very isolated.

    I’ve seen the proposal for air-delivered nuclear capability which I’ve been told is the alternative that the LDs are suggesting might replace Trident. It has more holes in it than a string vest.

  32. I’ve just been looking at the Comres tables, something I don’t often do because I’m prone to misinterpreting them. They asked those who answered don’t know to the main VI question who they would vote for if it was a legal requirement.

    If I’ve understood it right the answers were:
    Con 11%
    Lab 9%
    Lib 3%
    UKIP 9%(!)
    Green 3%
    Don’t Know 50%

    This would seem to show that there isn’t a large untapped pool of potential Labour voters that Corbyn might be able to reach. Therefore if he alienates the centre-left voters he won’t be able to compensate by drawing in vast numbers of non-voters.

    Apologies to Scots, Welsh, Irish etc as I’m not interested in their regional parties.

  33. PETE B

    “though the media tend to focus on the mothers with children, when crowd shots are shown it is striking how many are young men who appear to be healthy, well-fed and well dressed (by modern standards). Hardly the usual image of a refugee. And with such huge numbers it is certain that at least a few have been sent by ISIS to foment trouble”
    ____________
    British tourists traveling back to the UK via Calais said the same and that most of the so called refugees looked very fit and healthy and one even said they appear to be as fit as a demented Kangaroo on steroids when they watched some migrants jump over a 20 feet high fence to get onto the Euro-Star.

    And I agree, how many of the migrants are ISIS plants? and when the UK has a chronic housing shortage with many of our own people sleeping on the streets and unable to get onto the social housing list because they are not deemed to be at risk then that will chuck up some resentment.

    I’ve always held the view that we should help out as much as we can for less fortunate people from other countries but I really do think it would be appalling if refugees were to be settled in London when thousands of British people had to move out of the city because of the bedroom tax and were unable to afford the shortfall in their rent.

  34. The Daily Express are running a counter-story to the Mail’s lurid revelations about Cameron. Apparently, the porcine bonce that was, how shall we say, the unwitting recipient of the Prime Minister’s todger, has connections to Corbyn. The new Labour leader was a customer of the butcher that supplied the piece of meat that became the centre piece of Cameron’s Bacchanalian initiation ceremony and the Express are now clearing linking Corbyn to the pig’s head.

    This one could run and run and it doesn’t look at all good for Red Jez. The butcher had a hard left wing background and the Express are claiming that, at Corbyn’s behestn, the meat-monger inserted a camera into the pig’s head in order to get incriminating and close-up footage of Cameron’s wholly light hearted and highly amusing high jinks.

    This scandal is now turning into a nightmare for Corbyn who is being portrayed as a lunatic Marxist plotter, hell bent on trapping a young, innocent and playful student just doing what we all did in the epicurean days of our youth.

    Cameron’s going to come out well from this, you see.

    :-)

  35. Ok folks what’s going on?

    Is this just a feud and too good a story for the papers to pass up? Or are they seriously trying to get rid of DC and if so why? Conspiracy theories welcome.

  36. Crossbat
    Well if it’s in the papers it must be true. Lol

    But which of us hasn’t youthful misadventures? This one seems pretty mild, but then I did go to public school.

  37. Couper

    Here’s my conspiracy theory!

    As with the Mail’s 2nd extract from Ashcroft’s book (Dave and the Chipping Snorton set), tomorrow, this is nothing to do with Cameron at all, but an attempt to stop another toff replacing him – ie it’s an anti-Osborne gambit.

  38. The £2bn loan guarantee Osborne has offered the lukewarm Chinese backers of Hinkley Point C could become a salient issue. Especially as it appears to be aimed at getting them to build their own reactor design at Bradwell in Essex, uncomfortably close to London, I’d have thought.

    Is Essex man (and woman) ready for a Chinese reactor on his doorstep? And do we trust a non-allied foreign power to build a reactor without inserting some clever software code that would allow it be remotely switched off (or worse) if relations deteriorated?

    If Ashcroft has time to spare now he’s finished his biography, a bit of polling on this wouldn’t go amiss. I suspect it might revel a major political misjudgement.

  39. @raf
    @amber

    I’m afraid to say the Lib Dems are fudging it. Deterrents only deter if they’re credible. The “cheaper option” sounds appealing politically but it wouldn’t be a continuous-at-sea deterrent, therefore it would be a useless deterrent. If we want a deterrent then one-for-one replacement of the current submarines with new ones is the only option.

    Regarding the “air-delivered nuclear capability”. We don’t have the strategic bombers to do this, and it’s not a good idea given our resources. In fact the RAF used to provide the nuclear deterrent via the V-Bombers, but we shifted to the submarine-based system because it’s far superior. They can stay underwater virtually undetectable for a very long time i.e. withstand any first-strike.

    This isn’t the place to discuss if we should or shouldn’t have a deterrent, everyone has their own opinion. However people should be clear that there are only 2 real options. One-for-one replacement of the Vanguard class subs or just don’t bother at all.

  40. @Pete B

    “But which of us hasn’t youthful misadventures? This one seems pretty mild, but then I did go to public school.”

    ———–

    Dunno about you Pete, but my kind of youthful misadventure at public school focused on escape: meeting a girl in a coffee shop from which we’d all been banned, keeping a motorbike hidden away, that sorta thing… Some others ran off to join the Foreign Legion…)

  41. Somerjohn
    I wonder where all our nuclear scientists and engineers have gone? We used to build our own, with our own money and our own designs.

  42. Our own reactors! Not necessarily our own engineers and scientists.

  43. @Pete B

    Indeed, it was at Birmingham Uni that the first calculations showing that it was feasible were undertook.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frisch-Peierls_memorandum

    Prior to this, peeps like Einstein thought it would take tons of uranium, instead of around a kilo as Frisch and Peierls showed. The memo formed part of the stuff we gave to the Americans in the Tizzard mission Ken and I mentioned a little while ago, and accelerated the Manhattan thing considerably.

  44. Pete B

    Ah! Those wonderful joys of the days when Brits could develop Blue Streak!

    (I wonder when “Blue Streak” will emerge from Ashcroft’s book – describing Osborne and Cameron rowing nude down the Thames?)

  45. Of course, we could be developing our own Thorium reactors. Chinese have an accelerated programme for that too…

  46. @ Allan and Pete B

    Orbán is not interested in the refugees at all. He was losing support, so he created a crisis. According to the polls the country is quite split http://www.publicus.hu/blog/refugee_crisis_hungary_a_divided_country/ but it gave some recovery to the Hungarian government.

    And while you have a jolly banter here, you should see how quickly, not accidentally, fascism is rising all over in Eastern Europe. It is the proper one. If you underestimate it, you are betting your life.

    The Hungarian prime minister, by the way, excluded the Roma population from the Hungarian nation (a mere 700 years cohabitation) – it happens to be the largest minority in Hungary.

  47. Laszlo
    Those who mock UKIP should be grateful that it is a very moderate party compared to those that you describe.

  48. I have laughed heartily at “pig-gate”. I have shared satire stories on social media. But let’s be serious for a moment.

    The prime minister of he United Kingdom has committed an act of necrophila, putting his penis in a dead animal’s mouth.

    Read that back and say it slowly.

    We are clearly in unchartered waters with this.

    Call me paranoid, but, I firmly believe that this is all about stopping Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.
    Either there is worse to come, forcing a snap election if/when Cameron becomes untenable (and Labour are WAY behind in the polls right now), or it is a longer game, ensuring his successor (most likely Boris) will have plenty of time to establish himself.

    The left (including me) are laughing…..but, this could be the very thing that prevents the most left wing and progressive governmentnin decades.

  49. Mark a snap election will likely mean a minority Tory government without a partner to back them up. Lib Dems would use it to rally for power arguing the only way to stop Tory infighting is to vote for them and Labour would probably benefit from the instability in government.

  50. @ Pete B

    Indeed, I have occasional churn in my stomach by some members, but UKIP as a party is mainstream. The U.K. (Or just to be safe, England), is unique – as always.

    Hungary, on the other hand, has a special skill to upset everyone. If I counted it right ambassadors of the following countries have been summoned to the foreign office: Greece, Serbia, Croatia, Romania, Austria, Germany, France. But it is serious, and as I said purely domestic politics. And what tiger they wake up (in Poland fans boycotted matches as the UEFA gave a proportion of the revenue to refugees) – one doesn’t want to know, and how they would ride it …

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