ComRes and YouGov both had post-Corbyn polls in the Indy on Sunday/Sunday Mirror and Sunday Times respectively. Tabs are here – Comres, YouGov.

ComRes had topline voting intention figures of CON 42% (+2), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 13%(nc), GRN 3%(-1). Changes are since their August poll and show no obvious impact from Jeremy Corbyn becoming leader.

YouGov had topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 31%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 16%, GRN 3%. YouGov haven’t released voting intention figures since May, but as you can see, the gap between Labour and the Conservatives is barely changed from the election (the difference between the 12 point Tory lead in ComRes and the 8 point Tory lead in YouGov will be at least partially because ComRes have adopted their new socio-economic turnout model, which weights down younger and poorer voters who are historically less likely to vote. YouGov are still reviewing their methods post-election).

YouGov included some more questions about early attitudes towards Jeremy Corbyn. Most people don’t think he has much chance of being Prime Minister (only 14% think it’s likely), but beyond that attitudes are currently quite evenly divided. 30% think he’s strong enough to be a good leader, 41% think he is not.

36% of people agree with the description that Corbyn has dangerous and unworkable views and would be a threat to the economy and national security, but 32% agree with the description that he’s a man of integrity & principle who has caught the mood of people disillusioned by politics. 7% don’t agree with either, 6% agree with both (which is fair enough – one could be a decent and principled man with unworkable and dangerous views!).

YouGov also asked about a list of policies that have been supported by Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell in the past, announced by Corbyn or floated as possible Labour policies. Again, they found a mixed bag. Some, like withdrawal from NATO, negotiating over the Falklands and abolishing the benefit cap are extremely unpopular, but other things like a higher top rate of tax, rent controls and nationalising the utility companies meet with wide public approval.

The rest of ComRes’s poll had bank of favourable/unfavourable opinion questions on leading politicians. Boris Johnson had the most favourable net score of those asked about with plus 8, followed by David Cameron on minus 7, Theresa May (minus 11), Vince Cable (minus 14), George Osborne (minus 17), Jeremy Corbyn (minus 18), Nicola Sturgeon (minus 19), Nick Clegg (minus 27).

Tom Watson actually had a comparatively good score – minus 8 – but on a low number of responses (71% said don’t know or no opinion), Tim Farron and John McDonnell got similarly high don’t knows, though more negative scores. At this stage, the public simply aren’t familiar enough with them to hold any strong positive or negative opinions.

UPDATE: I missed a third national GB poll, Opinium for the Observer. They had topline figures of CON 37%, LAB 32%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%. Opinium also included a best PM question (Cameron 41%, Corbyn 22%) and had some figures on whether Labour under Corbyn could win that were a little more optimistic for them – 32% think Labour could definitely or probably win under Corbyn, 55% though they probably or definitely could not. Tabs are here.


345 Responses to “Latest ComRes and YouGov polls”

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  1. @Polltroll

    Do bear in mind that for every person who accepted the ‘evil SNP’ rhetoric, someone else saw right through that particular nonsense and considered the SNP positively.

  2. @peteb

    I seem to recall polling which showed that E&W was in favour of maintaining the Union.

    It would be perfectly open to England to vote to leave the Union. Of course if you did you could not keep the UK pound nor the UK central bank nor retain your seat on the Security Counci. You would have to reapply to join the EU and so on as you would not be the successor state. You would however have to do something about Trident; you couldn’t keep it as you would be a new state and the non proliferation treaties would apply and Scotland doesn’t want it. You would also need to check that the Queen would.be happy to continue as monarch of England. Still no doubt you have thought of all these things.

  3. @polltroll

    I seem to recall the BES struggling to find any evidence for this supposed SNP effect. It looks like it may be a convenient myth for Labour to explain its failure to itself.

  4. @HIRETON

    Well said

  5. Hireton,
    No, obviously England would just cast adrift the hangers-on. As the UK would no longer exist, England, as the major part of it, would be the successor state.

    My ideal scenario would be that Scotland goes independent and joins the EU, while E&W leave the EU. This would be great for entrepreneurial smugglers near the border, and hence boost both economies.

    On a more serious note, I have been reading about George Lansbury, who was the last Labour leader to be deposed before he could face a general election. There are quite a few parallels with Corbyn. Apparently he was a man who stuck to his principles through thick and thin, and was so keen on world peace that he met many who would not be considered friends of Britain, such as Irish Nationalists (!), Lenin, Hitler, Mussolini etc. He resigned after being attacked at the 1935 party conference by Bevin.

    Sorry if some of you already knew all that, but he was just a name to me. I was just struck by the parallels, and wondered who would take the Bevin role in a year or two?

  6. hireton is right in theory, wrong in practice.

    Even if the rUK representing Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales was the successor state de jure, in practice it wouldn’t work like that.

    Any English currency could be set to the GBP and would be treated like that by the markets as 85% of the old state.

    Strident will be a problem whether it is England or Scotland leaving.

    Not being part of the EU is a unionist myth, Scotland or England would be fast tracked during any transitional period.

  7. Hireton – “It would be perfectly open to England to vote to leave the Union. Of course if you did you could not keep the UK pound ”

    Ummm… Actually the Pound Sterling is the English pound.

    Article 16 of the Treaty of Union allowed the Scots to keep their pound, and fixed it’s rate as 12 Scottish pounds to 1 English pound sterling. (It was fixed in an attempt to stabalize the Scottish pound as it was in free fall).

    However, because in the real market the Scottish pound was worth so much less than stipulated in the treaty (let’s be frank, it was worthless), people simply voted with their wallets and stopped using it.

    In the event of England declaring independence from the rest of the UK, we’d take the pound with us, as it belongs to us in law and the rest are only using it because they don’t like their own currency.

    I understand that the gaelic part of Scotland acknowledges all this by referring to the pound as the Punnd Sasannach.

  8. UKPR descends once again into English imperialist nonsense and denigration of Scotland. So much for the non-partisan discussion of polls.

    We’ve been round these circles over and over no-one changes their minds. Maybe the anti-SNP folk that don’t live in Scotland and therefore probably do not have much insight into Scottish politics could just refrain from posting and thus displaying their ignorance.

  9. “posting” about Scottish politics I mean, please carry on posting about anything else.

  10. @PeteB

    Fun Fact: Angela Lansbury of “Murder She Wrote” fame was George Lansbury’s granddaughter.

  11. @candy

    If you understand that then it simply confirms what we already knew of your understanding of anything.

  12. @Hireton

    Are you disputing the articles in the Treaty of Union? On what grounds?

  13. Candy
    Now you mention it, I think I’d heard that. So who do you think will do the hatchet job on Corbyn in a year or two? Benn?

  14. As I posted on the previous thread, BES pointed out, in their 2015 election analysis, the “red herring” of the SNP threat affecting voting patterns in England.

    However, one can always rely on a number of folk on UKPR to prefer a speculative idea, with little or no evidence to support it, in preference to the conclusions of an authoritative piece of research.

  15. @Couper
    “UKPR descends once again into English imperialist nonsense and denigration of Scotland. So much for the non-partisan discussion of polls.”
    I think @AW is taking a laissez faire attitude to moderating posts of late, probably because he has far more important things to do.

    “We’ve been round these circles over and over no-one changes their minds. Maybe the anti-SNP folk that don’t live in Scotland and therefore probably do not have much insight into Scottish politics could just refrain from posting and thus displaying their ignorance.”
    You can follow Scottish politics closely even if you happen to live elsewhere. I know I try to do so. Of course, people who don’t know of what they write probably shouldn’t write it at all, but not all people who hold a contrary view to a Scottish poster on a Scottish matter will be ignorant about Scottish politics; they may just disagree with the poster.

  16. @PeteB

    Reading the Sunday Times about how cross Unite were about McDonnell being appointed Shadow Chancellor, I rather think the unions will lower the boom.

  17. Syriza’s success in the Greek election today was really a personal triumph for Tsipras more than anything else and again illustrates the electoral power of personal credibility and charisma. The purists amongst us may wish that this wasn’t so, and it was all about the “ishoos” and policies, but the qualities of political leadership stalk all general elections. I know representative democracies aren’t meant to do presidential style run-offs, but the May 15 UK election, albeit supported by a number of other sub-plots, came down essentially to whether people preferred a Cameron premiership to a Miliband one. Ashcroft’s post mortem polls point to this factor as being a crucial and game-deciding voting determinant.

    Inevitably, this brings me to our old friend Jeremy Corbyn, and in truth, I fear for both him and John McDonnell when it comes to them possessing winning political personas. Maybe they can develop them in time but neither age nor media generosity is on their side There’s plenty of polling evidence to suggest that neither Cameron nor Osborne are particularly engaging or popular politicians either, but the choice for the electorate is a binary one at election time and you’ve only got to be perceived as being better, or less bad, than the other man to win. One of today’s polls that had Cameron preferred to Corbyn by 42% to 22% as a PM also contained a figure that stated over a quarter of the respondents didn’t want either of them, again suggesting we have another Ugly Contest on our hands. However, it’s our man Corbyn with all the catching up to do. Big boulders have to be rolled up very steep slopes over the coming years, I think.

    It’s still way too early to write Corbyn off, and there are some responses hidden away in these polls that offer some surprising glimmers of hope for him, but he’s struggling to prevent himself being defined in the eyes of the public by his enemies. That can be lethal and he has to prevent that definition taking root. and he has to do that very quickly I would suggest.

    The Tsipras lesson for Corbyn and Labour is that overtly left wing politicians are electable but they have to overcome considerable electoral and political obstacles not always encountered by their opponents on the right. Corbyn and McDonnell, I fear, look too much like a 80s tribute band on a farewell tour rather than men for the future. More Fred Zeppelin than Paloma Faith. That’s not a Tsipras, Renzi, Iglesias or even Hollande look, and I have a horrible feeling that it will be their eventual undoing.

  18. @OldNat
    “As I posted on the previous thread, BES pointed out, in their 2015 election analysis, the “red herring” of the SNP threat affecting voting patterns in England.
    However, one can always rely on a number of folk on UKPR to prefer a speculative idea, with little or no evidence to support it, in preference to the conclusions of an authoritative piece of research.”

    The authoritative piece of research concluded that people in England did not vote Ukip because they were worried about SNP influence on a minority Labour government, but instead because the likelihood of a hung parliament gave voters more freedom to vote for their preferred choice of party rather than just the lesser of two evils.

    Now, I’m paraphrasing of course, but even so, it seems an odd conclusion. Why? Because people just don’t as a matter of course behave that way and also because the strong anti SNP sentiment here in England towards the end of the election was palpable. As they say, “you had to be here” to appreciate it. It was paranoia of the lowest sort. Basically, people in marginal seats in England did not want the SNP to have any say in the next UK government.

    Can I prove that? If you ask people here they will tell you (directly and to your face). Also it was clear as day from the polling questions in the run up to polling day what people thought about this issue). I don’t know how many surveys BES actually took (or comsidered) or whether they just relied on the voting figures.

    That is not to say that this “cost” Labour the election. Many other things were also responsible for that – the collapse in the price of oil since January 2015; Labour’s incoherence on austerity, Labour’s failure to advocate a clear line on immigration, Labour’s timidity on devolution of powers to town and regions of England, and many many more. These other things meant Lab could not win a majority outright and would therefore need some direct or tacit support from the SNP to form a stable government. Ultimately, people in England didn’t want that.

  19. Candy
    I hadn’t seen that about Unite, but it could make things interesting.

    Corbyn has talked about consulting widely to set policy, but as far as I can gather the ultimate policy-setting arena is the Annual Conference.

    http://www.labour.org.uk/pages/how-we-work

    It will be interesting to see what policy emerges from the upcoming conference and how it will affect polls (if at all).

  20. CB11

    But isn’t Cameron going to be off to the opportunities for wealth creation open to former PMs by 2020?

    Corbyn and Osborne have similar approval/disapproval ratings. If Osborne becomes Tory leader, then both main England & Wales parties are going to be led by no-hopers!

  21. ON
    Ok, I’ll take the bait. You’re comparing a man who will have been a moderately successful chancellor for nearly 10 years to someone who has been in Parliament for around 30 years without ever holding government office of any kind.

  22. @PeteB

    Here’s what that Sunday Times article said:

    Quote

    “Even some trade unionists despair. A senior figure in Unite said: “People have moved away from the euphoria of Saturday to ‘Oh my God, what have we done?’ I don’t think anybody expected them to be this poorly prepared. This guy knew for three weeks that he was going to win.

    “There is a real shock and amazement at John McDonnell as shadow chancellor. It smells of the witchfinder general. Jeremy does all the ‘I want a broad church, I want debate’. That is not McDonnell’s history or rhetoric – you either abide by the line or are purged.”

    End Quote

    The Guardian also mentioned McCluskey’s dismay at the McDonnell appointment. They wanted someone moderate and competent in that role (for obvious reasons – their members are all employed people who don’t wish to become unemployed).

    If the PLP are disgruntled and the Trade Unions are disgruntled, it leaves just the £3 revolutionaries in support of Corbyn.

  23. But will the £3 revolutionaries have a vote at Conference? If policy really is set there and it goes against Corbyn’s ideas I wonder if he’ll resign? Whether he does or not, all the £3 guys will be really browned off.

    It will be very interesting.

  24. RAF

    I remain disinclined to give much credit to anecdotal evidence.

    “Basically, people in marginal seats in England did not want the SNP to have any say in the next UK government.”

    If it’s that basic, then presumably there will be more evidence than TV vox-pops and the outpourings of the London media?

    During the Brown Premiership there were lots of comments of that type about not wanting any Scots “to have any say in the next UK government” – so perhaps the palpable feeling that you experienced from others was a much baser emotion than dislike of a particular political party.

    Perhaps few in Scotland would be surprised (even if they are wrong in their assumption) that a number of voters had no need to cast their xenophobic vote for UKIP, when the Tories welcomed the bigots with open arms. :-)

    However, the folk I know in England aren’t the nasty self-obsessed racists that you suggest were so common. I prefer to think of our neighbours as much the same as everyone else. Some nasty, some saints – most are a mixture.

  25. Pete B

    No bait – just an observation. The comparison wasn’t mine, but by those polled.

  26. “If the PLP are disgruntled and the Trade Unions are disgruntled, it leaves just the £3 revolutionaries in support of Corbyn.”

    Thing is, where were all the appalled centrists, rushing to pay their three quid to fight the Corbyn surge? Or weren’t there enough of them in the first place?

  27. It doesn’t have to be many people who need to be swayed by a fear of the SNP holding the balance of power just a few and in the right places.

  28. “It would be perfectly open to England to vote to leave the Union. Of course if you did you could not keep the UK pound nor the UK central bank………”

    Odd that. What Scotland volunteered to join the union, they didn’t create a currency – they chose to adopt the English pound, run by the Bank of England. Both in existence before the Act of Union.

    In strict historical terms, it’s England’s currency and England’s central bank, which the English people graciously decided to share with the Scots.

    Of course, the intervening 300 years of history make such historical niceties somewhat redundant, but it does make me smile somewhat when my fellow Scots demand all that is shared is ours.

  29. ON
    “During the Brown Premiership there were lots of comments of that type about not wanting any Scots “to have any say in the next UK government” ”

    Well those comments have proved to be a true forecast at least for this Parliament.

  30. @candy

    Your statement about the contents and intent of the Treaty of Union 1707 is factually incorrect unless you have uncovered one which is different from the one which I studied in great detail supervised by experts in the subject when I studied history at Cambridge. Your understanding of the currency consequences of the 1800 Acts of Union is also defective not least as you seem to think that the Union was between England and Ireland when it was between Great Britain and Ireland. You may wish to progress beyond the Girl’s Own Big Book of English Imperial History supplemented by a superficial reading of Wikipedia if you want to understand the history of your country.

  31. I think someone needs to investigate the power of the pork industry in this country. That’s two party leaders this year…

  32. Hireton

    We are in the unusual position of Alec and Candy both trying to go back to 1707 (while ignoring the Bank of England Act 1946).

    With that kind of strange alliance, it wouldn’t surprise me to find someone connecting David Cameron and Piers Gaveston in some way.

  33. @ Couper 2802

    Maybe the anti-SNP folk that don’t live in Scotland and therefore probably do not have much insight into Scottish politics could just refrain from posting and thus displaying their ignorance.

    Will you return the favour by posting about nowhere but Scotland? Because, by your own measure, the fact that you live in Scotland means you have nothing worthwhile to contribute about politics which are happening anywhere else….

  34. @Hireton – “You would have to reapply to join the EU and so on as you would not be the successor state.”

    Please get the terminology correct. A ‘successor state’ is a totally new state, while you are talking here about a ‘continuing state’.

  35. You can disagree with someone and construct a response without having to resort to this English imperialist nonsense.

    If it helps though I’m Welsh.

  36. @Oldnat, what RAF said…but probably condensed into a single unhelpful sentence.

  37. @Oldnat – “We are in the unusual position of Alec and Candy both trying to go back to 1707 (while ignoring the Bank of England Act 1946).”

    Read my post again, properly this time, and then reconsider your post.

  38. Wood

    I thought RAF condensed your particular vocal, unhelpful minority rather well – in a single sentence.

    “It was paranoia of the lowest sort”

  39. @Oldnat, calm down mate.

  40. Lol Amber!! You disagreed with Coups!! That must make you an English Imperialist!! Who knew?

    I’m not English myself, but no doubt somehow disagreeing with Coups will change my ancestry…

    If anyone reading this wants to become English, then all you have to do is disagree with Coups and job done!!

    (What happens if you agree with Coups though? Does that make you Scottish?)

  41. @Hireton

    Your great learning should have told you that a) a Scottish pound existed b) it was pegged to the English pound at 12 Scottish pound to 1 English Pound sterling and c) the Scottish pound was never abolished, it just fell out of use because Scots preferred to use the English pound. (The 1946 act refers purely to the regulation of the English Pound Sterling by nationalising the Bank of England).

    There is absolutely nothing stopping the Scots from reviving the Scottish pound – save practicalities such as people refusing to use it just like they refused to use in the 18th century, because it was so much worthless toilet paper.

    But fear not Scotties – while you are in the Union you can always use the sound money known as the English Pound Sterling :-)

  42. Wood

    “Mate”?

    Is that one of those Cameron/Gaveston connections that I speculated that someone would make?

    There are a number of aspects of English “society” that are well beyond my comprehension.

  43. @Candy

    Hireton didn’t actually present an argument against what you said, s/he just claimed you didn’t know stuff.

    Good to know we have an expert in Hireton on board though, and I look forward to Hireton sharing some of his/her learning on the matter. Like, what happens to the BoE, surely they don’t move it up to Scotland brick-by-brick? How do they stop England continuing to issue Sterling? Not saying he’s wrong, just interested in the analysis.

  44. @ Candy

    Newspaper articles about Corbyn can be right, wrong or invented (for example the article about the serving general talking about Army mutiny – surely, he would have been arrested by now).

    Unite might have wanted more women in the shadow cabinet’s top position, might have wanted a different shadow chancellor (you may want to consider that it proposed Watson OR Eagle to the members, when drawing your conclusion), but I’m quite sure that it’s neither here or there from their perspective.

    Having said that, assuming that Corbyn continues with his job relatively acceptably from the perspective of the members, some purge of some MPs seems to me inevitable (even if Corbyn would want it differently).

  45. I wouldn’t have thought of friendliness as something english society is particularly renowned for. Or even English “society”. We disagree quite a lot. I rarely say anything about it….partly, this isn’t the place…mostly, I usually just let things lay, in general. Vocal isn’t the word. And some people I just write off and ignore completely. Candy being a prime example.

    Someone up thread said our host is going laisses faire lately, I’ve noted that before…the threads are full of….stuff….
    I wouldn’t let it bother you to the extent you start insulting people. Discriminate, between certain types, and those who merely disagree with you.

  46. Wood

    I wholly agree that people should discriminate – especially between species.

    “The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again,”

  47. Labour lost because a) they were almost wiped out in Scotland b) the Liberals were almost wiped out by the conservatives in the West Country and c) they themselves failed to gain enough of the marginal seats to make inroads elsewhere.

    I don’t think fear of the SNP can have had much to do with a and b. So what about their performance in marginal seats. Comparing the ones they won with the ones they lost suggests to me that the difference had something to do with UKIP (or perhaps London where UKIP was not so popular( Labour won these close seats where the UKIP vote was considerably below the national average and lost where it was at the national average. The conservative vote was roughly equal in those Labour won and those they lost. This does not suggest to me that fear of the SNP was much of an issue here either. If one feared them the best thing to do was to vote for one of the main parties (probably the Tories) in the hope of avoiding a hung parliament. A vote for UKIP would have made this more likely.

    Nice to see a post from Mr Nameless. I have been lurking on this site and missed his contributions (perhaps because I visited too infrequently).

  48. @ Carfrew

    Even though I live in Scotland, I regard myself as British which means I fully intend to continue giving my ill-informed opinion about politics everywhere in the world. I believe that’s what we Brits do… ;-)

  49. @Amber Star

    If only I didn’t need to concern myself with goings on in the Westminster parliament but unfortunately for now I do.

    So how many Labour MSPs, and councillors will be taking the opportunity given to them by your new leader to openly support and campaign for independence. (I am ruling out Murray as he has to appease his Tory core vote)

  50. Apparently Cameron had sex with a Pigs head. Apparently. Twitter ablaze.

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